This document summarizes the impacts of climate change on agriculture in India and strategies to mitigate these impacts. It notes that agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change due to factors like rainfall dependency and degradation of soils. Key impacts include reduced yields of crops like sorghum, maize and groundnut due to increased temperatures and changed rainfall patterns. Adaptation strategies discussed include using drought and heat tolerant crop varieties, conservation agriculture techniques like mulching, and watershed management.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE, ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE
AND MITIGATION STRATEGIES
By : Vasudev Meena
(IISS, ICAR)
SEMINAR

2. OUTLINE OF SEMINAR
 Introduction
 What is the climate change
 Climate change trends
 Impacts of climate change on agriculture
 Adaptation and mitigation strategies
 Conclusions

3. Agriculture represents a core part of the Indian economy and
provides food and livelihood activities to much of the Indian
population.
The agricultural sector represents 35% of India’s Gross National
Product (GNP) and as such plays a crucial role in the country’s
development. Food grain production quadrupled during the post-
independence era; this growth is projected to continue.
The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variabilities in
local climates rather than in global climate patterns.
While the magnitude of climate change impact varies greatly by
region.
Climate change is expected to impact on agricultural productivity
and shifting crop patterns.
Introduction..

4. Why Agriculture vulnerable to climate
change ?
 Highly diverse nature
 High rainfall dependency (2/3rd
area rain dependent)
 Inadequate infrastructure facilities for supply of quality
inputs
 Rapid degradation of soil and loss of soil fertility and
nutrient levels
 Poor resources base of the farmers
 Poor technology penetration

5. Climate change ???
 According to IPCC (2007) “Climate change refers to a statistically
significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its
Variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or
longer)”
 Climate change has adverse impacts on agriculture, hydropower,
forest management and biodiversity
 In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in
several ways such as quantity and quality of crops in terms of
productivity, growth rates, photosynthesis and transpiration
rates, moisture availability etc.
 Climate change directly affect food production across the globe.

6. (IPCC, 2007)

7. The benchmark (400ppm) we crossed
recently, made headlines around the world.
But there's actually another number, 450
ppm, that is real cause for alarm among
scientists and policy experts.
That's because 450ppm of CO2 in the
atmosphere likely would push the world past
2 degrees of warming.
More CO2 =means warmer temperatures

8. Threats of climate change
over the environment

9. Any amount of global warming is somewhat dangerous, but 2
degrees Celsius of warming (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) is:
 when things start to get Earth-changingly bad.
 Water is expected to become much more scarce.
 A significant percentage of the world's plants and animals
will be at risk for extinction.
 Coral reefs will be heavily bleached if not gone.
 Some island nations could be underwater, or saltwater
intrusion from rising seas could make them uninhabitable.

10. Although there
is considerable
Uncertainty about
future, all climate
models indicate a
rising trend in
temperature
By 2100 a rise
of 1.8 to 4°c is
Expected
Future climate likely to be warmer
(IPCC, 2007)

11. Temperature trends
• The year 2009 was the warmest year on record since 1901 (+0.91°C
above the normal 26.64°C).
• The other warmer years on the record in order are 2002, 2006, 2003,
2007, 2004, 1998,1941,1999,1958, 2001, 1987 and 2005.
(Kumar, 2009)

12. (Kumar et al., 2010)
Trends and magnitude of change in annual
rainfall (% of mean/100 years)
• Punjab, Haryana,
South East
Peninsular India
and Karnataka
witnessed
increasing trend
• Chhattisgarh,
Vidarbha and East
MP experienced a
decreasing trend

13. Trends and magnitude of changes in annual
rainfall (% of mean/100 years) for
different regions
(Kumar et al., 2010)
• West Central
India shows a
decreasing trend
• Peninsular India
witnessed an
increasing trend

14. Climate during
recent past in India
Year Rainfall departure (%)
2000 -11
2001 -15
2002 -19
2003 +2
2004 -13
2005 -1
2006 0.7
2007 1
2008 -2
2009 -23
2010 +2
2011 +1
2012 -8Extreme Events
 2002 drought, 27 days heat wave during May - June 2003 in Andhra Pradesh
 Floods in 2005, Cold wave in 2005–06
 Floods in arid Rajasthan & AP and drought in NE regions in 2006
 Heavy rainfall (944 mm) in Mumbai in 2006
 High temperature during rabi 2008-09 in major parts of the India
 Cloud burst in Ladakh and drought like situation in NE region in 2010
 2012 – Drought in Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat and Karnataka. Neelam cyclone, AP floods

15. Incidences of natural calamities
due to climate change

16. Kashmir flood (2014)
Latur Earthquake (1993)
The Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004)
Uttarakhand Flash Floods (2013)
Extreme Events
Nepal Earthquake (2015)

17. Odisha Super-cyclone 2013
Land slides in Male, Pune (2014)

18. Retreat of the Gangotri glacier snout during
the last 220 years (from 1780 AD to 2001)
(ICIMOD, 2007)
•The position of
the Gangotri
glacier snout
retreated about 2
km in the period
from 1780 AD to
2001
• Glacial melt
would lead to
increased
summer river
flow and floods
over the next few
decades,
followed by a
serious
reduction in
flows thereafter

19. Year/
Scenarios
Season Temperature change (0
C) Rainfall Change (%)
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
2020s Annual
Rabi
Kharif
1.0
1.08
0.87
1.41
1.54
1.17
2.16
1.95
-1.81
5.97
4.36
5.10
2050s Annual
Rabi
Kharif
2.23
2.54
1.81
2.87
3.18
2.37
5.36
-9.92
7.18
9.34
3.82
10.52
2080s Annual
Rabi
Kharif
3.53
4.14
2.91
5.55
6.31
4.62
7.48
-24.83
10.10
9.90
-4.50
15.18
Climate Change Projections for India
(Lal et al., 2001)

20. Impact of climate change on agriculture

22. Impact of droughts on Indian food grains production from 1950-51 to
2007-’08
(Rao et al., 2008)

23. Crop % loss of normal yield
Sorghum 43.03
Maize 14.09
Tur 28.23
Groundnut 34.09
Wheat 48.68
Onian 29.56
Cotton 59.96
Effect of drought on rainfed crop yield in Dharwad district
Asha Latha et al., (2012)

24. Deviation of minimum temperature from normal at Hisar and Jabalpur during 2005-06
Normal Temperature

25.  Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an
increase of 2o
C in temperature could decrease the rice
yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a
0.5o
C increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat
yield by 0.45 ton/ha.
 Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for every one
degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would
be about 6%.
 Aggarwal et al. (2002) – on basis of recent climate
change scenarios estimated impacts on wheat and other
cereal crops.

26. Crop Potential**
grain yield
kg ha 1‐
CO2 effect
on yield
Rainfall
effect on
yield
Temperature
effect on
yield
CC* effect
on yield
Sorghum 2753 n/a ‐6% ‐16% ‐22%
Maize 2125 n/a ‐8% ‐16% ‐25%
Groundnut 1979 +8% ‐7% ‐31% ‐30%
Pigeonpea 1230 +6% ‐7% ‐3% ‐8%
• Climate change – combined effects of increased temperature and reduced
rainfall, and increased CO2 in the case of groundnut and pigeonpea, and of
increased temperature and rainfall in the case of sorghum and maize
** Potential yield of the current rainfall, CO2, temperature and radiation
environment averaged over 50 seasons, with no nutrient, pest or disease
constraints
Impact of climate change on average potential grain yield
of sorghum, maize, groundnut and pigeon pea
(Dimes et al., 2008)

27. crop
Baseline Climate Change
Total
biomass
(kg ha 1‐
)
Duration
(d)
In crop‐
rain
(mm)
WUE*
(kg ha 1‐
mm 1‐
)
Total
biomass
(kg ha 1‐
)
Duration
(d)
In crop‐
rain
(mm)
WUE*
(kg ha 1‐
mm 1‐
)
Sorghum 6398 107 396 6.7
4663
(27%)
88 320 6.7
Maize 6403 129 433 4.3
4747
(26 %)
107 352 3.9
Groundnut 4628 122 416 4.5
3782
(18 %)
106 345 3.8
Pigeon
pea
4445 165 463 2.3
4288
(3.5 %)
136 397 2.4
(Dimes et al., 2008)
*WUE was calculated as kg of grain / (soil water at sowing – soil water at
harvest + in crop rainfall)‐
Impact of the climate change on sorghum,
maize, groundnut and pigeon pea

28. Effect of elevated temperature on yield attributes of groundnut crop
(NPCC, 2010)

29. Impact of climate change on mustard yield
(Boomiraj et al., 2010)

30. Impact of climate change on length of
growing period
• Area under 150-180
days LGP will reduce
in the country in the
projected climate
change scenarios
• LGP rainfed areas is
likely to reduce,
especially in
peninsular regions
and south India
(NPCC, 2008)

31. Effect of Climate change on apple
production
Declining apple yields in H.P. due to inadequate chilling
(NPCC, 2004-07)
• Apple belt has moved 30 Kms upwards [northwards] over the last 50 years
• The new areas of apple cultivation have appeared in Lahaul and Spitti and
upper reaches of Kinnaur district of H.P.
• The total area under apple state have fallen from 92,820 ha in 2001-02 to
86,202 ha in 2004-05.
• Avg. state productivity decreased from 7.06 t ha-1
in 1980-81 to 4.65 t ha-1
in 2004-05.

32. mpact of climate change on milk productio
• Milk yield will reduce by 10-30% in first lactation and 5-20% in
second and third lactation periods in cattle and buffaloes
• Temperature rise of 2- 6 °C will negatively affect growth, puberty,
maturity, reproduction of crossbreed cows and buffaloes
• Increased water, shelter and energy requirement for livestock
• Loss of 1.6 million tones in milk production by 2020 and 15 million
tones by 2050 (NPCC, 2004-07 and NPCC, 2008)

33. • Heat wave in 2003 in Andhra Pradesh- Severest and longest
• 20 lakhs birds were died in May & June 2003 (Total loss 27 Crores)
• Highest in E. Godavari-7 lakhs, W. Godavari – 5 lakhs
• Egg production decreased in the state by 25%
Heat Wave - Silent killer to Poultry birds
(The Hindu, 2005 and NPCC, 2010)
Mortality due to heat stress caused by
high ambient temperature
Massive poultry birds killing

34. Adaptation and mitigation
strategies
1. Genetics & Breeding
and Biotechnology
2. Conservation
Agriculture
3. Watershed 4. Improved Agronomic Practices

35. Adaptation options
 Altered agronomy of crops
 Altering dates of planting &
spacing
 Alternate crops or cultivars
 Change in cropping system
Conservation agriculture
 Zero tillage/direct seeding
 Reduction in summer fallow
 Conservation of soil moisture
 Crop diversification
 Forage in rotations
Integrated farming system
Integrated nutrient management
Improved land use & NRM policies
Risk management- early warning
systems and crop insurances
Mitigation options
 Afforestation
 Watershed management
 Organic agriculture
 Changing land use- Horticulture,
Agroforestry, Silviculture
 Integrated farming system
Use of nitrification inhibitors and
fertilizers placement practices
 Improved management of livestock
population
 Feed and fodder bank
 Solar power

36. 1. Genetics & Breeding and
Biotechnology
 Conversion of C3 plants to C4 plants
 Transfer of gene from legume to non-legume crops
 Need to develop extreme conditions (heat, drought, flood)
tolerant crops and cultivars
 Develop climate ready crops (defining new Ideotypes)
 Need to develop new breeds (or poultry birds)- tolerant to harsh
conditions (Cold/ heat waves)
 Selection and breeding of high yielding rice cultivars with low
methane emission potential
 Breeding for new animals breeds – less methane emission
 Transgenic development for biotic and abiotic stress

37. 2. Conservation Agriculture

38. Treatments Seed yield (Kg ha-1
) Straw yield (Kg ha-1
)
Tillage
Minimum
tillage
921 2306
Reduced tillage 969 2355
Conventional
tillage
948 2383
Mulching
No mulch 835 1941
Rice straw
mulch
1089 2518
Water hyacinth
mulch
998 2237
Black polythene
mulch
1164 2697
(Mondal et al., 2008)
Effect of tillage and mulching on Seed and straw
yield of mustard

39. Effect of tillage and legume mulching on
productivity of wheat
Treatment Grain yield
(t ha-1
)
Tillage
Conventional 2.48
Minimum 2.40
CD (P=0.05) NS
Legume mulching
Control 2.11
Sunhemp (S) 2.46
Leucaena (L) 2.45
Sunhemp + Leucaena 2.68
(Sharma et al., 2010)

40. Product Pre-project
(1974-75)
During project
(1975-86)
Runoff (%) 60 46
Soil loss
(t ha-1
annum-1
)
11 4.5
Dependency on
forest cover (%)
60 46
Animal rearing
method
Heavily grazing Partially grazing
(Tripathi and Sharda,
Protection impacts of watershed management
programme at Fakot
3. Watershed
management

41. Effect of watershed management on drought moderation
(Tripathi and Sharda,
2011)

42. Product Pre-project
(1974-75)
During project
(1975-86)
Food crops (t) 88.2 584.3
Fruit (t) Neg. 196.2
Milk (‘000 l) 56.6 237.6
income from
floriculture (‘000 Rs.)
Nil 120.0
Income from sale of
cash crops (‘000 Rs.)
6.5 202.5
(Tripathi and Sharda,
2011)
Production impacts of watershed management
programme at Fakot
* Community diversified into floriculture in 1994

43. 4. Improved Agronomic
Practices
There are several adaptation measures that the agricultural sector can
undertake to cope with future climate change.
These include:
– Changing planting dates
– Planting different varieties or crop species
– Development and promotion of alternative crops
– Developing new drought and heat-resistant varieties
– Improved crop residue and weed management
– More use of water harvesting techniques
– Better pest and disease control for crops
– Implementing new or improving existing irrigation systems
(Reducing water leakage, soil moisture conservation - mulching)

44. Crops Drought Flood/ water
submergence
Salt tolerant
Rice Sahbhagi Dhan
Shusk Samrat
Swarna-sub 1
Bhuthnath
Scuba rice
IR 72076,
Usar Dhan-3
Wheat HT1531, HD2888 - -
Sorghum M 35-1, selection-3 - -
Pearlmillet HHB 216 - -
Gram BGD 128 - -
Mustard - - -
Groundnut Jun 27, PBS 11058,
Girnar 3,BAU-19
- -
Cultivars tolerant to extreme conditions
(ICAR Annual report, 2010-11 and STRASA, 2011)

45.  Several farming practices and technologies can reduce greenhouse
gas emissions and prevent climate change by enhancing carbon
storage in soils;
 Preserving existing soil carbon; and reducing carbon dioxide, methane
and nitrous oxide emissions.
 Reducing use of fertilisers: By applying only the amount of fertiliser
that the crop needs, precisely and at the right time, a tremendous
amount of greenhouse gas releases can be prevented.
 At the same time, it would also reduce other environmental disasters
such as dangerous algal blooms in our lakes and oceans worldwide.

46.  Protecting the soil: By increasing the carbon content through a
variety of measures such as cover crops, agricultural soils can be
turned into carbon sinks and can greatly reduce agriculture’s
contribution to climate change.
 Land restoration and land use changes: Modifications to grazing
practices, such as implementing rotational grazing and seasonal use
of rangelands. Converting marginal cropland to trees or grass
maximizes carbon storage.
 Methane should be used: Methane can be used to fuel a variety of
on-farm applications, as well as to generate electricity.

47. Land use system C Sequestered /unit quantity
of biomass (kg kg-1
)
Carbon sequestration
(t ha-1
yr-1
)
Albizia lebbeck
(Agrisilviculture)
0.458 2.98
Acacia nilotica
(Silvipasture)
0.409 0.69
Tamarindus indica
(Agri-silvi-horti
system)
0.393 0.44
Luecaena
leucocephala
0.445 7.00
Acacia albida 0.438 0.85
Azadirachta indica 0.418 0.80
Carbon sequestration under different
land use systems
(Reddy et al., 2009)

48. Treatment Grain yield
(t ha-1
)
Straw yield
(t ha-1
)
Nitrogen-use
efficiency (%)
Organic C
(%)
Control 4.16 4.59 1.95
U 60 5.35 5.98 19.97 2.10
V 60 4.63 5.00 7.88 2.23
U 40 + V 20 5.19 5.5 17.17 2.25
U 20 + V 40 4.91 5.45 12.50 2.27
Azolla 4.61 5.0 2.22
U 60 +Azolla 5.70 6.24 25.75 2.30
V 60 + Azolla 4.74 5.18 9.75 2.33
U 40 + V 20 +
Azolla
5.45 6.01 21.52 2.29
U 20 + V 40
+Azolla
4.98 5.50 13.6 2.28
Biomass yield, organic C and nitrogen-use efficiency of rice under different
N sources and their integration with Azolla and vermicompost
(Singh et al., 2005)

49. Yield and water use in mustard as influence by sowing
date and aqua-fertilization under rainfed conditions
Treatment Yield (t ha-1
) Consumptive use
(mm)
WUE(kg ha-1
mm-1
)
Sowing date
25th
October 1.98 220.4 8.69
5th
November 1.69 212.3 7.80
CD (P=0.05) 0.06
Aqua-fertilization (water, litres ha-1
)
Control 1.68 207.5 8.09
5000 1.78 215.4 8.10
10000 1.81 221.4 8.12
15000 1.94 224.3 8.55
CD (P=0.05) 0.08
(IARI annual report, 2009)

50. Grain yield of sorghum+ pigeonpea as influence by
different conservation measures
Treatment Grain yield (t ha-1
)
Sorghum Pigeonpea S E Y
Control 2.74 0.039 3.20
Ridge and furrow 3.53 0.077 3.87
Conservation furrow(0.9m) 3.07 0.120 3.47
Bed furrow (0.9 m) 3.20 0.054 3.38
Conservation furrow(1.35m) 3.19 0.056 3.37
Bed furrow (1.35m) 3.22 0.060 3.40
SEm+ 0.14 0.009 -
CD (P=0.05) 0.40 0.021 -
(Reddy et al., 2010)

51. System Gross
return
(Rs/ha)
Expenditure
(Rs/ha)
Net income
(Rs/ha)
Employment
(M.D./ha/yr
Crop+ dairy+ Poultry+
Mushroom
203044 84682 118362 154
Crop cultivation only 101742 26202 75540 64
Additional benefit 101302 58480 42822 90
Integrated farming system
(Sharma et al., 2007)

52. 5. SHELTERBELT & ROADSIDE
PLANTATION Reduces wind speed by 20-30%
 Wind erosion by 50%
 Conserves soil moisture & nutrients
 Pearl millet yield 6.8 q ha-1
in shelterbelt & 4.8 q ha-1
in without
shelterbelt
Azadirachta indica – Acacia tortilis

53. Feed and Fodder Bank for Drought Mitigation
Arid zone faces fodder scarcity, poor quality & high transportation cost
The Feed Block Machine helps reducing volume to one-third
Feed block (20x20x5 cm ) are made out of crop residues, concentrates, minerals
6. Livestock
Management

54. Animal Feed Solar
Cooker
Widely adopted in more than 500
villages of western Rajasthan

55. Conclusion
s:
 Climate change is a reality
 Agriculture is likely to suffer losses in long run due to
heat waves, drought, unusual rainfall and other weather
anomalies
 Adaptation strategies can help to minimize negative
impacts to some extent where as mitigation options
can help in long run, but
 There are ‘n’ number of solutions need to be
standardized in the coming years
 These need research and policy support