1. Cárnicos, Producción,
Tendencias
Angel Rubio
México D.F. a 18 de
Agosto de 2011

2. Quienes somos?
• Desde 1858 reportando el mercado de
materias primas
• Compania mas vieja de EE.UU. Reportando
mercado
• Imprenta a lista de precios

3. Que hacemos y como lo hacemos
• Sondeo de mercado
• Analistas y Reporteros haciendo sentido del
mercado
• Referencia de precio
– Libro azul
– Informacion
• Eficiencia y transparencia en el mercado

4. Tasa de Desempleo en Estados Unidos vs Ingreso Disponible (poder
adquisitivo)
11.0 39,000
38,000
10.0
37,000
9.0
36,000
9.5
8.0 35,000
7.0 34,000
Unemployment
Disposable Income 33,000
6.0
32,000
5.0
31,000
4.0 30,000

5. Indice de Precios al Consumidor (CPI - All Urban Consumers, SA)
230
225
220
215
210
205
CPI
200
195
190

6. Indice de Precios al Consumidor (CPI - All Urban Consumers, SA)
13400
13300
13200
13100
13000
12900
12800
Real Gross Domestic Product,
12700
12600
12500

8. Indice de otras proteinas (huevo excluido por volatilidad)
100
Pork Index, 82.89%
80
Cambio de % (%Change) Index/Indice
60
Turkey Index, 43.53%
40
Shrimp 28.64%
20 Beef, 27.23%
Chicken, 10.23%
0
-20
Beef Index Chicken Index
Turkey Index - Total Value - Tom YS Pork Carcass Cutout Value
White Shrimp Index Linear (Chicken Index)
-40

9. Corn, Mercado a futuros y de contado
9
8
7
6
$ por costal ($/bushel)
Omaha Corn, US 2 Yellow
CBOT Corn Continuous Front-Month Futures
5
4
3
2
1
0

10. Harina de Soya, Mercado a futuros y de contado
500
450
400
350
$ por tonelada metrica
300
250
200
150
100
CBOT Soy Meal Continuous Front-Month Futures
50 USDA Central Illinois 48% Soybean Meal Truck
0

13. Inflacion en precios de la Carne

14. Mercado del Cerdo

15. Front Month Live Hog Futures
1.100
High Volatility: Indicated By
Extremely Wide Bands
1.000
0.900
F.M. Futures
20P MA
Upper Band
0.800 Lower Band
"W" Bottoms : In
each case followed
0.700
0.600

16. Pork Cutout w/Bollinger Bands
Would expect
1.100 decline past
20day MA, then
incline before a
1.050 major reversal to
the downside.
"M" Top: Technical
1.000
0.950
0.900
Cutout
0.850 0.557
Upper Band
0.800 Lower Band
0.750
0.700 "W" Bottom: Technical
0.650

17. USDA, FI Slaughter, Sacrificio de Cerdos (Ene - Jun)
58,000
56,991 SUM 5yr avg
57,000
56,000
55,506
55,000
54,280.46
miles de cabezas
54,000 53,703
53,481
53,000
52,000 51,722
51,000
50,000
49,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

18. USDA, FI Slaughter, Sacrificio de Cerdos (Ene - Jul) Est.
66,000
65,128 YTD Jul 5yr avg
65,000
64,000
63,335 63,298 63,183
62,838.96
63,000
miles de cabezas
62,000
61,000
60,000
59,252
59,000
58,000
57,000
56,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

19. USDA, Produccion de Carne (Ene - Jun) Est.
11,800
11,618 YTD 5yr avg
11,600
11,400 11,304
1.7%
11,200 11,090 11,091
Millones de libras
11,000 10,910
10,800
10,600 10,525
10,400
10,200
10,000
9,800
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

20. USDA FI Live Weight, Hog, Average Weight (Peso Promedio)
285
280
Peso Promedio en Libras
275
270
265
260
2011 2010 2009 2008 '07-'10 avg.
255
250
J F M A M J J A S O N D

22. Pork Exports by Country
South Korea, 7%
Russia, 5%
Canada, 11%
China (Mainland), 6%
China (Taiwan), 1%
Hong Kong, 3%
Other, 16%
Japan, 33%
Mexico, 22%

23. Exports as % of Production
25%
20% 20%
19% 19%
18%
15%
14% 14%
13%
11%
10%
8% 8% 9%
7% Exports as % of Production
5%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

24. Total, Exportaciones de Cerdo
550,000.00
500,000.00
450,000.00
400,000.00
350,000.00
300,000.00
250,000.00
Exportaciones totales
200,000.00

25. USDA U.S. Pork Exports to Mexico (Exportaciones a Mexico, Peso canal)
120,000
100,000
Peso Promedio en Libras
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
2011 2009 2010 2008 '08-''10 avg
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

26. Exportaciones vs Peso Mex
120,000.00 $15.0
110,000.00 $14.5
100,000.00 $14.0
90,000.00 $13.5
80,000.00 $13.0
$/lb
70,000.00 $12.5
60,000.00 $12.0
50,000.00 $11.5
40,000.00 $11.0
USDA U.S. Pork Exports Mexico
30,000.00 $10.5
Foreign Exchange Rates, Mexico, Peso
20,000.00 $10.0

27. Pork Processing Items (TL) Sq. Cut Bellies 12/14 (Tocinos)
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$/lb.
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
2011 2010 2009 2008 '07-'10 avg
$0.40
J F M A M J J A S O N D

28. 12/14 Bellies
2.000
1.800
1.600
$1.56 $1.55
$1.50 $1.50
1.400
$1.30
1.200
$1.20 $1.15
$1.10
1.000
0.890 $0.93
0.800
0.600
Bellies 20P MA Upper Band Lower Band

29. Pork Processing Items (TL) Select Hams 23/27 (Piernil)
$1.00
2011 2010 2009
2008 '07-'10 avg
$0.90
$0.80
$/lb.
$0.70
$0.60
$0.50
$0.40
J F M A M J J A S O N D

30. Ham 23/27 w/Bollinger Bands
$1.10
$1.00
$0.90
$0.80
Hams $/lb.
$0.70
$0.60
$0.50
$0.40
23/27 Hams 20P MA
Upper Band Lower Band
$0.30

31. Ham 23/27
$1.05 15.00
$0.95 14.50
$0.85 14.00
Mexican Peso vs. US Dollar
$0.75 13.50
Hams $/lb.
$0.65 13.00
$0.55 12.50
23/27 Hams
$0.45 12.00
Mex Peso
$0.35 11.50

32. Exports as % of Production
25%
20% 20%
19% 19%
18%
15%
14% 14%
13%
11%
10%
8% 8% 9%
7% Exports as % of Production
5%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

33. $/lb. (Export, USDA, UB)
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
Jan-00
Jun-00
Nov-00
Apr-01
Sep-01
Feb-02
Jul-02
Dec-02
May-03
Oct-03
Mar-04
Aug-04
Jan-05
Jun-05
Nov-05
$/lb. Exp
Apr-06
USDA Hams
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Commerce vs. USDA & UB $
Mar-09
Exports
UB Hams
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Exportaciones de Pierniles Procesados a Mexico, US Dept of
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Exports in MT

34. $1.800 12000
Exportaciones de Pierniles Procesados a Mexico, US Dept of
$1.600 Commerce vs. USDA & UB $
10000
$1.400
$/lb. Exp UB Hams
Exports
$/lb. (Export, USDA, UB)
$1.200 8000
Exports in MT
$1.000
6000
$0.800
$0.600 4000
$0.400
2000
$0.200
$- 0
Jan-05
Sep-10
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
Jan-04
Sep-04
Sep-05
Jan-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
Jan-11

35. Retail Pork Cuts (TL) 1/4 in. Tr Boston Butts 9/dn (Espaldilla)
$1.40
$1.30
$1.20
$1.10
$1.00
$/lb.
$0.90
$0.80
$0.70
$0.60
2011 2010 2009
2008 '07-'10 avg
$0.50
J F M A M J J A S O N D

36. Mercado del Pollo

37. Matanza de RTC en libras, frescos y congelados
3,400
3,300
3,200
(millones de libras)
3,100
3,000
2,900
2,800
2011 2010 2009 2008 07-'10 average
2,700
2,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

38. Matanza de RTC en libras, frescos y congelados
3,400
USDA Chick Slaughter RTC
3,300
3,200
(millones de libras)
3,100
3,000
2,900
2,800
2,700
2,600

39. Matanza de RTC en libras, frescos y congelados
20,000
USDA Chick Slaughter RTC 07-'10 average
19,000
18,106 18,791
18,000 18,585
17,931
17,710 17,512
17,000
(millones de libras)
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

40. USDA Live Pty Sltrd, Young Chickens, Miles de Pollos (cabezas)
180,000
170,000
Miles de pollos
160,000
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000 2011 2010 2009 2008 08-'10 avg
110,000
100,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D

41. USDA Live Pty Sltrd, Young Chickens, libras semanales
180,000
170,000
Millones de libras (est.)
160,000
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000 2011 2010 2009 2008 08-'10 avg
2011 2010 2009 2008 08-'10 avg
110,000
100,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D

42. USDA Live Pty Sltrd, Young Chickens, Average Weight (Peso Promedio)
6
5.9
5.8
Peso Promedio en Libras
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3
2011 2010 2009 2008 08-'10 avg
5.2
5.1
5
J F M A M J J A S O N D

43. USDA Live Pty Sltrd, Young Chickens, Average Weight (Peso Promedio)
6
5.9
Peso Promedio en Libras
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.3

44. USDA Chickens, Egg Set ( Huevos en Incubadora) - 19 State
225,000
220,000
215,000
210,000
Miles de huevos
205,000
200,000
195,000
2011 2010
2009 2008
190,000
185,000
180,000

45. USDA Chicks Eggs Set - 19 State
225,000
220,000
Miles de huevos
215,000
210,000
205,000
200,000
195,000
190,000
185,000
180,000

46. USDA Chicks Placed Set - 19 State
185,000
180,000
175,000
Miles de pollos
170,000
165,000
2011 2010 2009
160,000 2008 08-'10 avg
155,000
150,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D

47. USDA Chicks Placed Set - 19 State
185,000
180,000
Miles de pollos
175,000
170,000
165,000
160,000
155,000
150,000

48. USDA Chicks Placed Set - 19 State
9,050,000
USDA Chicks
8,950,000 8,970,662 Placed
8,807,161
8,850,000
8,809,669
8,750,000
Miles de pollos
8,650,000
8,641,152
8,550,000
8,450,000
8,350,000
8,250,000
8,150,000
2008 2009 2010

49. USDA Stocks in Cold Storage- Frozen Poultry, Chicken - Total
850
2011 2010 2009 2008 5-Yr-Avg
800
Millones de libras
750
700
650
600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

50. USDA Chicks Placed Set - 19 State
850
800
Miles de pollos
750
700
650
600
550
500

51. USDA Chicks Placed Set - 19 State
9,050,000
USDA Chicks
8,950,000 8,970,662 Placed
8,807,161
8,850,000
8,809,669
8,750,000
Miles de pollos
8,650,000
8,641,152
8,550,000
8,450,000
8,350,000
8,250,000
8,150,000
2008 2009 2010

52. UB Chicken, NE Wings (Alas de Pollo)
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$/lb.
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
2011 2010 2009
2008 '08-'10 avg
$0.60
J F M A M J J A S O N D

53. Wings vs Slaughter (RTC Weekly)
$1.80 700
$1.60 677
$1.40 653
Millions of lbs
$/lb
$1.20 630
$1.00 607
$0.80 583
UB NE Wings 2Mo. Mov avg. Slaughter
$0.60 560

54. Leg Quarters
$0.60
$0.55
$0.50
$0.45
$/lb
$0.40
$0.35
$0.30
UB NE Leg Quarters (bulk)
$0.25

55. UB Chicken, NE Jumbo Bnls/Sknls Breast (Pechuga de Pollo)
$2.00
$1.90
$1.80
$1.70
$1.60
$/lb.
$1.50
$1.40
$1.30
$1.20
$1.10
2011 2010 2009
2008 '08-'10 avg
$1.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D

56. Pechuga de Pollo vs Slaughter (RTC Weekly)
$2.00 700
680
$1.80
660
640
$1.60
$/lb
620
600
$1.40
580
560
$1.20
UB NE Jumbo Bnls/Sknls Brst, Tndr Out (6.5 lbs &
up) 540
2Mo. Mov avg. Slaughter
$1.00 520

57. Resumen
• Tiempo de transicion
• Precios de insumos a nuevos niveles, nuevo piso
• Exportaciones en Cerdo jugando un papel mas importante
cada vez
• Mercados emergentes, especialmente Asia con mayores
ingresos demandando producto, pagando precios mas altos
• Tipo de cambio escencial en los mercados de materias primas,
debilidad del dolar
• Mercado de Pollo, exportaciones a la par, produccion alta,
pero se esta ajustando
• Conusmo de pollo parece (empirico) estar a un limite en
EE.UU.
• Exportaciones de cerdo 18% a la alza, res 27%, a otros
mercados

58. Gracias
Angel Rubio
arubio@urnerbarry.com
(732) 575-1982 directo