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Applying Science to Personas: Merging Small Sample Qualitative Insights with Large Sample Quantitative Analysis
1. MeasuringU 2017
How To Make Personas More Scientific
Jeff Sauro, PhD | Chelsea Meenan, PhD | Jan Moorman, MA
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Anna
2
Profile
Interests Golfing, Fishing & Camping
Pets 1 Cat
Children None
Passions Movies, comedy and music
Education Some college
Profession Accounting assistant
Social Profile Free thinker, smoker, drinks socially
I'm a very easy going laid back person.
I like to just go with the flow.
Age 28
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Lucy
3
Profile
Interests Scrapbooking
Pets Dog, Cat and Ferret
Children Two
Passions Enjoying time with friends, family and pets
Education Some college
Profession Mom and zoo-keeper
Social Profile Self-Reliant
I unwind with technology
in my free time.
Age 46
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Do personas actually improve the
development process?
Do personas really help deliver
better user experiences and more
successful products?
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How generalizable are the personas?
How many personas should
there be?
What details should be
collected and displayed?
What variables differentiate
the personas?
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6. Personify or qualify your segments
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Personify
Go deep to get insights.
Conduct qualitative interviews & observations.
Qualify
What variables matter?
What percent of the population?
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Goal: Align with Walmart Marketing’s US focus
26 Million ‘busy family’ households
Millennials and Gen X families
2+ kids
Ages: 20 to 50
65% middle class
53% with college degrees
37% multicultural (18% Hispanic)
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Goals: Investigate our persona related hypotheses
There is a distinct persona that is an ‘early adopter’ of online grocery.
The ‘busy family’ marketing segment is comprised of
several personas.
Grocery shopping is an integral part of everyday living…
grocery personas map to individuals.
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1. Conduct qualitative interviews and observation
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online
diary study
in-home visit
and
shopalong
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Quant study goals:
Determine relation (if any) to marketing breakdown of ‘busy family’
segment into 4 types.
Verify qualitative personas, then create typing tool for future recruiting
Determine prevalence of the online grocery personas
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2. Survey a large sample of users or prospects
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Customers/competitors/aspirational
Existing Personas
Deep dive into dimensions
Uncover additional concepts
Narrow the scope Quantify field work
Generalize
Develop a typing tool
Dimension Reduction Population Identification Item Generation Outcomes
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2. Survey a large sample of users or prospects
Ages: 22 - 70
HH Income: Above $50,000
Open to shopping at Walmart
Responsible for grocery
shopping
Aspirational OR currently
buying groceries online with
Walmart or competitors
Beyond “busy family”
demographics
4K completes
Walmart Online Grocery Customers
PRIZM segment typing available
1K completes
General US Population
Measuring U panel
1K completes
General US Population
Harris Poll panel
PRIZM segment typing available
2K completes
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3. Identify the segments
Latent Class Analysis (LCA) identifies unobservable subgroups within a population
25
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3. Identify the segments
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Latent Class Analysis (LCA) identifies unobservable subgroups within a population
Ex. What makes a good presentation?
Types of
Presentations
Visuals
Long/Short
PowerPoint
About UX
The presenter likes
hockey
Manifest
Variables
Latent Class
Variable
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3. Identify the segments
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What LCA can tell us
How many groups of shoppers?
What qualities characterize the groups?
Who are the
customers?
Children
Convenience
Urban
Time
Value
Manifest
Variables
Latent Class
Variable
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3. Identify the segments
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How many classes?
Model fit and theory: try it, compare model fit, use theory
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4. Determine variables that differentiate segments
Which manifest variables should I use?
• Beyond basic behaviors and demographics
Analysis provides the probability that members of each class had of endorsing each
dimension.
Then, measure where each persona falls on additional dimensions
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No Yes
Class 1: 0.896 0.104
Class 2: 0.3836 0.6164
Class 3: 0.5293 0.4707
Class 4: 0.2554 0.7446
Attitude 1
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5. Predict segment membership using a typing tool
Classify new respondents
• Create a formula with an abbreviated set of questions
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6. Qualified
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Initial Analysis
Based on full set of responses
4 main personas contained significant differences in key characteristics to qual
personas.
• One additional persona emerged (urban, unmarried male)
Based on ‘Busy Family’ demographics → apples to apples comparison
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6. Qualified
Correction to qualitative strength of a dimensional characteristic.
Survey question inability to capture nuances perceived in the field research.
Mixed method - disparity between a research observation and survey self evaluation.
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Focused Analysis
Showed strong correlation with qualitative findings –
yet we found 3 types of differences:
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Becky (Class A, 22%)
Profile
Key driver
Enjoys grocery shopping
Likes to buy products from lots of different stores
Ideal online grocery
Willing to pay more for convenience
Will spend a little more for something unusual
Cares about automatically adding items from previous orders
Benefits of online grocery
Convenience
I have more time to do other things
Avoiding the physical store
Enjoyment of grocery
shopping
76% say they enjoy grocery shopping
19% say one reason they hesitated before signing up for
online grocery is that they enjoy going to the store themselves
Effort to save on groceries
Believes that saving money on groceries is important but
exerts lowest effort of all 4 clusters.
Low minimum order amount isn’t important for online
groceries
Effort towards meal
planning
Is focused on making weeknight dinners less stressful (36%)
Depends on what she has in the kitchen (29%)
Effort in making shopping
list
Makes a written list
I'm a very easy going laid back person.
I like to just go with the flow.
Age 28
69% 31%
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6 Components To Make Personas More Scientific
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1.Conduct qualitative interviews and observations.
2.Survey a large sample of users and/or prospects.
3.Identify segments using a statistical clustering technique.
4.Determine key variables that differentiate segments.
5.Predict segment membership using a typing tool.
6.Personify or qualify your segments.
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About MeasuringU
MeasuringU is a quantitative research firm based in Denver, Colorado focusing on quantifying the user experience.
Remote UX Testing Platform
(Desktop & Mobile)
UX Research Measurement
& Statistical Analysis
Eye Tracking & Lab
Based Testing
UX Boot Camp Aug 16th-18th
denverux.com
MeasuringU.com
@MeasuringU
Hinweis der Redaktion
Personas are a popular research method. Their concept has been around for a while and popularized when applied to UX research design by Alan Cooper in the Inmates are Running the Asylum. I remember when cooper’s book came out 1999, it was the “Design Thinking” ho topic of the .com rise and fall. But unlike the .dot coms, the concepts has remained. As of this year, some 70% of UX researchers report using them, a figure that’s remained constant or growing for the last decade.
But while their popularity remains, so do lingering questions about their validity. Common questions and concerns include.
The Persona Lifecycle: Keeping People in Mind Throughout Product Design recommends brining life-sized cutouts to meetings and also here https://www.snapapp.com/blog/best-practices-building-buyer-personas-experts
The Persona Lifecycle: Keeping People in Mind Throughout Product Design recommends brining life-sized cutouts to meetings and also here https://www.snapapp.com/blog/best-practices-building-buyer-personas-experts
Mixed methods image here Our approach to personas is to use a mixed-methods approach that leverages the techniques from a segmentation analysis <link> while maintaining the rich qualitative details that a traditional persona provides.
This approach provides the best of both worlds: rich detailed information that describes statistically reliable clusters that are also generalizable. It has six components:
Through careful observation and inquiry, identify challenges, problems, attitudes, and behaviors that characterize and differentiate groups of users. The number of participants you interview and observe is a function of how common the behaviors and attitudes you observe are. Here is a primer on conducting qualitative research. For the grocery study, the team had already conducted extensive interviews and observations and synthesized the findings into four personas they wanted to validate.
Using multiple
Tony Rogers, chief marketing officer for Walmart U.S.
Marketing has divided shoppers into four categories: busy families, active savers, older unconnected and urban connected.
Busy Family group wields an annual retail spend of $600 billion, or one-third of the industry’s total $1.8 trillion expected this year.
He said busy families register the highest with Walmart’s core mission to save people time and money.
A desire to be able to compare apples to apples with personas and marketing target market – what are the personas in this segment, and do these hold true in the other segments (which is what we would assume).
Understanding unmet needs
We interviewed 24 individuals: 12 were what we termed aspirational online grocery customers – those likely to try in the next 3-6 months and 12 current online grocery customers (of any online grocery retailer).
Cooper style persona process: visual cluster analysis along key behavioral and aspirational attribute dimensions.
Initial assumptions about dimensions that would prove useful did not pan out. We were stuck, until . . . Identified a way to systematically discover meaninful dimensions to use by shopping journey analyses: We looked at two visualizations of their journey – along the adoption curve and then individual shopping trips
At each step in the journey we asked the 3 empathy mapping questions:
What is the person doing?
What are they thinking?
How are they feeling?
Cooper style persona process: visual cluster analysis along key behavioral and aspirational attribute dimensions.
Initial assumptions about dimensions that would prove useful did not pan out. We were stuck, until . . . Identified a way to systematically discover meaninful dimensions to use by shopping journey analyses: We looked at two visualizations of their journey – along the adoption curve and then individual shopping trips
At each step in the journey we asked the 3 empathy mapping questions:
What is the person doing?
What are they thinking?
How are they feeling?
Personas are for designers, when you add the quant it’s for business as well – if our hypothesis about early adopters is correct then where are we leaving $ on the table by not understanding and addressing the needs of non-early adopters.
Item generation:
Chelsea and Jan discussing how we came up with the questions in survey
Using current customers, prospects and multiple panel sources
Range of customers (validating existing segmentation)
Balancing existing stakeholder interests
Dimension reduction
Item Generation (nuances)
N > 4000
Survey took about 13 minutes to complete, around 50 questions
*Personas are based on participants aged 22-40, who make decisions with a partner/spouse, and have children (n = 577)
Goals
Focused on replicating field work and identifying other relevant dimensions to understand the customers
Using current customers, prospects and multiple panel sources
N > 4000
*Personas are based on participants aged 22-40, who make decisions with a partner/spouse, and have children (n = 577)
Note to MU: I think it is relevant to talk about the different populations – and how those surveyed differed (broader) than the ‘busy family’ demographics. Explanation – they included some demographics that were not included in the study: urban, older, unmarried, no kids.
http://keltonglobal.com/blog-post/facing-reality-when-it-comes-to-typing-segments/
Based on patterns of Categorical data
“latent” because it cannot be directly observed. Ex. Interesting, dynamic, impactful, etc.
We’re looking for common patterns among the members of a class
Unlikely to cluster meaningfully with other variables: Do the presenters like cat videos
Organize customers into classes
To select the number of classes for the model, specify and run a 2-class model and repeat with 3 classes, 4 classes..., up to the highest plausible number of classes. From the results, information about fit (including log likelihood, degrees of freedom, G2, AIC, BIC, CAIC, etc.) are compared to identify the optimal model. Also, the bootstrap likelihood ratio test can be used to compare models.
In LCA, the responses of all participants to all items are analyzed. A specified latent class model is fit to the data, and the parameter estimates are obtained. Once the number of classes is selected, the output includes the probability of a response to EACH grocery shopping behavior item in the inventory for each latent class. In other words, you will see the probability that members of each class had of engaging in each grocery shopping behavior.
To select the number of classes for the model, specify and run a 2-class model and repeat with 3 classes, 4 classes..., up to the highest plausible number of classes. From the results, information about fit (including log likelihood, degrees of freedom, G2, AIC, BIC, CAIC, etc.) are compared to identify the optimal model. Also, the bootstrap likelihood ratio test can be used to compare models.
In LCA, the responses of all participants to all items are analyzed. A specified latent class model is fit to the data, and the parameter estimates are obtained. Once the number of classes is selected, the output includes the probability of a response to EACH grocery shopping behavior item in the inventory for each latent class. In other words, you will see the probability that members of each class had of engaging in each grocery shopping behavior.
PARSIMONY INDICES (AIC, BIC)
To select the number of classes for the model, specify and run a 2-class model and repeat with 3 classes, 4 classes..., up to the highest plausible number of classes. From the results, information about fit (including log likelihood, degrees of freedom, G2, AIC, BIC, CAIC, etc.) are compared to identify the optimal model. Also, the bootstrap likelihood ratio test can be used to compare models.
In LCA, the responses of all participants to all items are analyzed. A specified latent class model is fit to the data, and the parameter estimates are obtained. Once the number of classes is selected, the output includes the probability of a response to EACH grocery shopping behavior item in the inventory for each latent class. In other words, you will see the probability that members of each class had of engaging in each grocery shopping behavior.
The Vuong-Lo-Mendell-Rubin test has a p-value of .1457 and the Lo-Mendell-Rubin adjusted LRT test has a p-value of .1500.
Nuances that make personas come to life can make it difficult to develop an accurate typing tool. Martin Eichholz http://keltonglobal.com/blog-post/facing-reality-when-it-comes-to-typing-segments/
In LCA, the responses of all participants to all items are analyzed. A specified latent class model is fit to the data, and the parameter estimates are obtained. Once the number of classes is selected, the output includes the probability of a response to EACH grocery shopping behavior item in the inventory for each latent class. In other words, you will see the probability that members of each class had of engaging in each grocery shopping behavior.
Theory and probabilities
From here, you get the likelihood of membership in each segment, and can place members into the most likely class. BUT what if you want to classify new customers?
Self-reported behaviors, attitudes, and demographics
Chelsea: Easy part now that you have weights from an existing sample, you “type” new samples into personas
Predict a categorical variable
Minimum number of dimensions to describe differences between groups (UCLA)
Run Stepwise to see which variables are the most important. Then compare the full model with just the ones you want to retain. For example 18 down to 5 and compare the percentage predicted correctly (e.g. 80% vs, 50%).
You’ll get coefficients for the formula identifying the likelihood of belonging to each class. The highest likelihood is the class the participant belongs to.
80% of original grouped cases correctly classified
JAN
Example of rich personas
Initial analysis was done on the full set of responses. There were significant differences in key characteristics, so we requested reanalysis based on demographics use for the persona study (age range, families with kids still at home). (VENN)
Second analysis showed strong correlation with qualitative findings – yet there were differences. Discussed with MU and found 3 types of differences between quant and qual findings:
Quantitative result corrects the qualitative strength of a dimensional characteristic. Reexamining the qual rationale, able to find evidence to support quant results.
Quantitative results differ, but believe survey question lacked the nuance perceived in the field research and used to set the relative strength.
Quantitative results differ from qualitative. We believe the difference between are simply the disparity between an outsiders evaluation and the survey self evaluation. Both are important. The qual results show relative positioning with the other personas, but the survey self-evaluation must be part story about who this persona is.
JAN
Quantitative result corrects the qualitative strength of a dimensional characteristic. Reexamining the qual rationale, able to find evidence to support quant results.
Quantitative results differ, but believe survey question lacked the nuance perceived in the field research and used to set the relative strength.
Quantitative results differ from qualitative. We believe the difference between are simply the disparity between an outsiders evaluation and the survey self evaluation. Both are important. The qual results show relative positioning with the other personas, but the survey self-evaluation must be part story about who this persona is.
JAN
22% of the subsample on which the clusters are based
21% of the entire sample