1. Social Protection for Inclusive
Growth: Case Study for Cameroon
Arsene Nkama
UNDP, Yaounde Cameroon

2. The Plan of Presentation
• 1. Context, Development Trends and Fiscal Space
• 2. Social Protection Profile in Cameroon
• 3. Social Protection Policies and Schemes in
Cameroon
• 4. Estimating Social Protection Benefits and Cost
in Cameroon: the ILO Social Protection floor work
• 5. Financing and Fiscal Sustainability
• 6. Conclusion and Recommendation

3. 1. Context, Development Trends and
Fiscal Space
• Cameroon is richly endowed with natural
resources, human resources and a diversified
production activity.
• However, Cameroon’s potential failed to
exhibit higher returns to economic
development.

4. 1. Context, Development Trends and
Fiscal Space
• From independance to the end of 70s
– Rapid real economic growth: about 6%.
– Growth rate over passed the average annual
population growth rate (about 3%).
– Average annual increase in private consumption:
2%
– Period marked by five year planning policy
centered on Agriculture productivity and rural
development

5. 1. Context, Development Trends and
Fiscal Space
• Oil-led boom period: end of 70s-mid 80s
– Growth led by oil;
– Traditional growth sectors’ carelessness, hence the decline
in their productivity;
– Poverty headcount: 40% in 1984
• The economic crisis /adjustment period:
(1986 – 1994)
– Sharp decline in world market prices for cocoa, coffee and
oil;
– Real GDP declined by an annual of about 4% per cent from
1986 to 1994;

6. 1. Context, Development Trends and
Fiscal Space
• The economic crisis /adjustment period:
(continued)
– Real per capita income decreased on average by
nearly 7%;
– External debt rose, from 39% of GDP in 1986 to 65 per
cent in 1992 and 105% of GDP in 1994 (as a result of
CFA franc devaluation);
– Poverty increased in 1996: 53%
– Unsuccessful internal adjustment policies led to
Bretton Woods institutions assistance between 1988
and 1994.

7. 1. Context, Development Trends and
Fiscal Space
Yaounde: per capita consumption in 1983 CFA Francs
500000 454000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000 196000 209000
200000
150000 104000
100000
50000
0
1964 1983 1993 1996
Sources: Own estimations based on EBC83/84; E 1-2-3 1993; ECAM1; ECAM2; ECAM3;

8. 1. Context, Development Trends and
Fiscal Space
• The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP)
Period: 2003 – 2008
– The main objective of Cameroon's PRSP was to
boost the country's real economic growth from
around 4% in 2003 to about 8%, the minimum
necessary to achieve the MDGs;
– The implementation of the PRSP has been
disappointing, leading to lower growth compared
to projections;
– Poverty declined to 40% but inequalities rose.

9. 1. Context, Development Trends and
Fiscal Space
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2003
2000
2001
2002
2004
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
croissance observée du PIB croissance recherchée par le DSRP

10. 1. Context, Development Trends and
Fiscal Space
• The Growth and Employment Strategy
Period: 2009 – 2020
– The GES is the first phase of ten years of the
implementation of the country Vision 2035
(Cameroon being an emergent country by 2035).
– The GES is center on three important strategies:
• a growth strategy;
• an employment strategy;
• a management strategy.

11. 1. Context and Development Trends
• To sum up,
• All development episodes are characterized by high
underemployment rate (75% in 2010).
• Growth has been weak, non employment-based, less
cross-sectors based, and relatively less shared. For this
reason, it has not been inclusive.
• Social protection could be a channel to make Cameroon’s
growth inclusive.

12. 2. Social Protection Profile in
Cameroon
• Legal Protection
- Cameroon’s Constitution;
 Preamble
 Article 26; Article 45
- An important number of national texts;
- International Agreements;

13. 2. Social Protection Profile in
Cameroon
• Institutional Protection
CNPS
Social
Insurance
Ministry of
Finance
Social
State
Protection
Private Sector
Social
Assistance
Households
Development
Partners

14. 2. Social Protection Profile in
Cameroon
• Social Protection coverage
– National institutions cover 7 of the 9 ILO branches of
social security as defined by convention 102.
Unemployment benefits and health benefits are not
covered.
– The seven branches served by national institutions
cover only 10% of active population.
– The 10% of the population covered are in 90% non
poor (ECAM2007).

15. 2. Social Protection Profile in
Cameroon
• Basic social security guarantees of social
protection floor in Cameroon
– Familial allocations are served at 1800 CFA francs
per child and per month (less than 10% of the
national poverty line); benefits only to 2.6% of
children;
– Free access to basic education in public schools;
– Income security programmes for children;
– Limited access to essential health care and other
goods and services;

16. 2. Social Protection Profile in
Cameroon
• Basic social security guarantees of social
protection floor in Cameroon (continued)
– Per capita government expenditures in health represented
17 USD in 2010 (the WHO target is 44 USD);
– Food for work (WFP) and labour intensive projects
(Government and ILO);
– 15% of population aged 60 and more received pensions
from CNPS or the ministry of finance.

17. 2. Social Protection Profile in
Cameroon
• Evolution of social security expenditures of
the public sector (in millions of CFAF)
Type of allocations 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
72763 89229 96168 103940 111431 119462
Pensions
Family allawances 19631 20150 22797 24440 26201 28090
Total 92394 109379 118965 128380 137632 147552
Share in public budget (%) 6,0 4,9 5,2 5,6 6,5 5,7
Source : MINFI/DRH

18. 2. Social Protection Profile in
Cameroon
Evolution of CNPS expenditures by branches
(in thousands of CFA francs)
Branches 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Family allowances 7 466 7 694 6 836 7 404 8 229 8 470
occupational accidents 1 839 1 860 1 880 3 578 3 470 4 035
Pensions 30 893 25 189 29 993 34 132 44 304 48 250
Heath actions 5 607 5 803 5 827 5 710 6 052 5 307
Total 45 805 40 546 44 536 50 824 62 055 66 062
Source: Statistical Yearbook 2008 of CNPS

19. 2. Social Protection Profile in
Cameroon
Safety nets programmes
Programmes/Project Target/beneficiaries Main Actors
Access to food for school girls More than 55 000 pupils between PAM, MINEDUB
and boys in high poverty areas 2008 and 2009.
Food distribution Orphans and vulnerable children UNICEF, CARE, CRS, AWA, Autres
specifically those affected by HAIDS ONG
Public works Youth, seasonal workers PAD-Y
(BIT, BAD), PAM
Emergency interventions Populations vulnerable in during PAM, MINADER, UNICEF
drought, refugees
Subsidies on energy products, All populations MINFI
food and transport
Funds transfers Abandonned Children, children of the MINAS
street, persons with disabilities, elders
and cultural minorities
Free basic education School pupils and students in need MINSANTE, MINEDUB, MINESUP

20. 2. Social Protection Profile in
Cameroon
Safety Nets Programme Expenditures (in
CFA Francs million)
Programme/projet 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Access to food for boys and girls in 90 107 1796 1801 1796
high poverty areas
Free basic education 1400 1600 4400 6400 6400
Fund transfers 22 112 50 50 50
Subsidies on energy products, food 1600 59400 213100 76700 166700
and transport
Public works 0 0 0 3196 3196
Emergences 329 215 26109 6765 14893
Food distribution 100 100 147 147 147
Total 3541 61534 245602 95059 193182
Development partners (in%) 13,7 0,6 11,4 11,8 10
Cameroon's Government in %) 86,3 99,4 88,6 88,2 90
Source : Rapport Banque Mondiale (2012) : « Cameroun : les filets sociaux »

21. 2. Social Protection Profile in
Cameroon
• Efficiency of Social Protection Expenditure:
Selected Safety Nets
– Consumption expenditure of subsidized petroleum products
(% of total consumption) by quintile
Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 Together
0.13 0.16 0.30 0.58 1.15 0.46
gasoline
0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.13 0.03
Diesel
1.67 1.66 1.31 1.06 0.68 1.27
kerosene
0.00 0.05 0.17 0.45 0.85 0.30
Domestic Gas
(LPG)
Source : Rapport Banque Mondiale (2012) : « Cameroun : les filets sociaux »

22. 2. Social Protection Profile in
Cameroon
Social Capital: A form of Protection
Proportion of people belonging to association that offer assistance
Region Poor Non poor Total
Douala 92,8 93,1 93,1
Yaounde 100,0 92,2 92,4
Adamaoua 73,2 86,4 80,8
Centre 95,9 96,4 96,3
East 88,1 95,0 93,7
Far-North 46,6 70,5 55,5
Littoral 92,2 94,9 94,2
North 95,4 81,9 87,0
North-Wouest 88,6 88,2 88,3
Wouest 85,0 92,4 90,7
South 91,1 88,3 88,8
South-Wouest 83,5 86,9 86,3
TotalECAM 3 (2007)
Source 82,3 90,9 88,9

23. 3. Social Protection Policies and
Schemes in Cameroon
• No social protection strategy in Cameroon;
• Goverment is actually reviewing the national
strategy on social protection initiated in 2004
but not finalised;
• Development partners are engaged to support
Government in defining social protection
policies.

24. 4. Estimating Social Protection
Benefits and Costs in Cameroon
• The ILO Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP)
– RAP estimates the future cost of introducing one or
more cash transfer elements of the Social Protection
Floor.
– The model is based on four components: a
demographic framework, a labour market model, the
macroeconomic model and the general government
operations models.
– Combining the four components leads to the benefits
costing, the main output of RAP. The RAP is articulated
as in figure below.

25. 4. Estimating Social Protection
Benefits and Costs in Cameroon
LABOUR MARKET DEMOGRAPHIC
MODEL FRAMEWORK
MACROECONOMIC
GENERAL
MODEL
GOVERNMENT
OPERATIONS
MODEL
BENEFITS COSTING
EXERCISE
SUMMARY AND
RESULTS
Source: ILO 2012

26. 4. Estimating Social Protection
Benefits and Costs in Cameroon
Developing a Social Protection Floor in Cameroon: Estimated Beneficiaries
25000000
Prestations enfants scenario (1)
20000000
Pension de vieillesse scenario (1)
15000000
Age actif: Programme d'emplois
publics pour les personnes en
10000000 mesure de travailler scenario (2)
scenario modéré
Age actif: prestation en espèce pour
invalidité
5000000
Soins de santé: scenario (1)
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: ILO 2012

27. 4. Estimating Social Protection
Benefits and Costs in Cameroon
Developing a Social Protection Floor in Cameroon: Estimated Costs (in
million CFA Francs)
1000000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: ILO 2012

28. 5. Financing and Fiscal Sustainability
• Actual receipts can be explained by:
– Actal receipts for social security (both public and
private) and;
– Actual expenditures on safety nets.
• Projecting these receipts/expenditures and
comparing them with ILO (2012) cost
estimations gives a broad view of the existing
financial gap.

29. 5. Financing and Fiscal Sustainability
Estimated Financial Gap (in million CFA Francs)
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Total recipts for social protection Total cost SPF (ILO)

30. 5. Financing and Fiscal Sustainability
• Cameroon can launch a social protection floor by
2013. Estimated receipts are higher than ILO
(2012) estimated costs;
• The financial gap that appears in 2014 grows at a
steady rate;
• Important new sources of funding a social
protection floor are needed.

31. 5. Financing and Fiscal Sustainability
• The new consumpption behaviours (ICT
products, luxury products…) could be an imporant
sustainable sources of funding;
• Beside new taxes, good governance could be regarded
as a key element;
• The private sector is also an important source of
funding;
• Households can also play a key role.

32. 6. Conclusion and Recommendations
• Cameroon can afford investing in a social
protection floor in its earlier implementation
stage;
• To do so, there is a need of coverting actual social
safety nets expenditures on targeted social
protection schemes;
• There is a need of extending the actual fiscal
basis coupled by better resources management.