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MULTIPHASE FLOW MODELLING OF
CALCITE DISSOLUTION PATTERNS FROM
CORE SCALE TO RESERVOIR SCALE
Jeroen Snippe, Holger Ott
Shell Global Solutions International B.V.
1October 2015
Presentation for UKCCSRC
Specialist Meeting on Flow and
Transport for CO2 Storage
Imperial College London,
30th October 2015
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DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves.
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with
the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact.
Resources plays: Our use of the term ‘resources plays’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are
sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to
subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies.
‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control.
Companies over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and companies over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control
are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or
company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements
of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current
expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed
or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and
statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and
phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’,
‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to
differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas;
(b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g)
environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such
transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential
litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of
expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared
costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements
contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal
Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2014 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each
forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 2 October, 2015. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly
update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated,
implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this
presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.
We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discovery potential, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in
filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain
this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
October 2015
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INTRO: CALCITE DISSOLUTION DURING CO2 INJECTION
 Context: CO2 storage/EOR
 CO2 injection → acidification →
carbonate dissolution
3October 2015
Fred and Fogler (1999), SPE 56995
 Experiments show ‘wormholing’
for CO2 -saturated brine injection
 Similar to patterns in extensive
acid stimulation literature
 Very limited experimental work
done with gas/SC CO2 injection
 Model investigation
 Impact of gas phase
 Upscaling to field scale
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MODELLING APPROACH
Using in-house dynamic multiphase reservoir flow simulator (MoReS)
coupled to open-source geochemical package (PHREEQC v3)
4October 2015
Detailed model (core scale)
 Explicit representation of WH patterns
 Grid resolution << WH diameter
 Chemistry including kinetics (phreeqc.dat, Palandri & Kharaka)
 2-phase flow description including capillary effects and diffusion
 Permeability, capillary pressure, relperms modified during dissolution
 Continuum scale (Darcy) model → flow within WH approximate
Effective model (core scale to well/reservoir scale) [2nd part of presentation]
 Implicit representation of WH patterns
 Generalised to 2-phase case with CO2
 Parameters tuned to detailed model and experiments
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DETAILED MODEL
5October 2015
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 3D
SOME MODEL RESULTS (SINGLE PHASE)
6October 2015
WH competition 5mm…
 Most of fine-scale simulations done in 2D
Compact dissolution Conical dissolution Conical wormhole
Ramified wormholes Homogeneous dissol.Dominant wormhole
 2D
WH width 2 mm
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MODEL VALIDATION (SINGLE PHASE)
7October 2015
Ramified wormholes
Uniform dissolution
Dominant wormhole
Conical
wormhole
Compact
dissolution
Dahmkohlernumber(reactionrate/convectionrate)
Peclet number (convection rate/diffusion rate)
MoReS results (colour) plotted on domain boundaries from
Golfier et al., J. Fluid Mech. (2002), vol. 457, pp. 213-254
with experimental patterns from Fred and Fogler (1999), SPE 56995
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TWO-PHASE EXPERIMENT/MODEL RATIONALE
Experiment
 Two experiments were done at Shell with CO2 + brine co-injection
 This is ~representative for the conditions somewhat behind the CO2
plume front in CCS
 Pure CO2 injection WH experiment would be more challenging
 longer core to resolve profiles (gas saturation, calcite dissolution)
 high CT signal:noise to resolve subtle calcite dissolution patterns
Model:
 Model experiment with CO2 + brine co-injection and compare results
 Derive upscaled (effective) model description
 Apply effective model to pure CO2 injection (larger model dimensions)
8October 2015
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2-PHASE RELPERM AND CAPILLARY PRESSURE
9October 2015
During dissolution
 Interpolation between curves (linear in porosity)
 Power law scaling of permeability with porosity
0.0
1.5
3.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Capillarypressure(Gas-Water)[bar]
Relativepermeability
Gas saturation
krw matrix
krg matrix
krw cavity
krg cavity
Pc matrix
Pc cavity
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TWO-PHASE MODEL RESULTS (CO-INJECTION)
10October 2015
The gas phase slightly suppresses WH velocity
260 PV
single-phase two-phase co-injection (same rate)
720 PV
560 PV
760 PV
760 PV
2000 PV
260 PV
880 PV
760 PV
880 PV
760 PV
2000 PV
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1
10
100
1000
10000
0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 100.000
PoreVolumestoBreakthrough
Interstitial Water Velocity (cm/min)
Brine + gas
Observed
TWO-PHASE MODEL RESULTS (CO-INJECTION)
11October 2015
Most suppression around optimal flow rates (~dominant WH regime)
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TWO-PHASE MODEL RESULTS: ANALYSIS/COMPARISON
12October 2015
2-phase, 1+1 ml/min co-inj.1-phase, 1ml/min
Porosity
Experiment
(Shell)
(Porosity)
Ott et al. (2013)
SCA2013-029
Gas
saturation
Water flux
(log scale)
760 PV 880 PV
Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V.
Ott, H., and S. Oedai (2015)
Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2270–2276
doi:10.1002/2015GL063582
2ND SHELL EXPERIMENT: WH SUPPRESSION
 In this experiment gas co-injection seems to trigger transition from
dominant WH into conical WH/compact dissolution
 Slumping reproduced in model runs with gravity (only investigated on
small diameter core)
13October 2015
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EFFECTIVE MODEL APPROACH
14October 2015
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LEARNINGS FROM ACID STIMULATION LITERATURE
15August 2015
 Acid stimulation literature
(single phase): Universally
shaped curve #PVBT vs vi (or
vWH vs vi)
 Location of curve depends on
phi, perm, aspect ratio, HCl
strength, …
 ‘Global Wormholing Model’
(GWM), Talbot&Gdanski
(2008), SPE 113042, offers
~universal parameterisation
~predictive vWH vs vi for given
phi, perm, HCl strength, etc.
Buijse & Glasbergen
(2005), SPE 96892
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GWM CHARACTERISTICS
16October 2015
Talbot&Gdanski (2008),
SPE 113042
Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V.
1
10
100
1000
10000
0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 100.000 1000.000
PoreVolumestoBreakthrough
Interstitial Water Velocity (cm/min)
Brine + gas Observed
compact dissolution limit Model (fit)
Model (solubility-equivalent HCl) Model (pH-equivalent HCl)
GWM APPLICATION TO CO2-BRINE
17August 2015
Deviation in single
WH regime because
Poiseuille flow profile
in model poorly
resolved or grid
resolution too coarse
Model was run in 2D,
for which GWM
model is overshooting
in face dissolution
regime
 GWM model fitted by tuning HCl strength
 Resulting GWM model also fits available experimental data well (next slides)
 GWM model applied to dynamic flow simulations by locally accounting for
calcite saturation index through HCl strength parameter
 For 2-phase use same GWM parameters – use the water vi as input velocity
Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V.
1
10
100
1000
10000
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
PoreVolumestoBreakthrough
Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min)
Model Observed
FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS
OTT ET AL. (SHELL) 2013 – SCA 2013-029
18October 2015
 L=5.91”, d=2.95”
 q=1 mL/min
 Estaillades limestone
 φ=0.278, k=270 mD
 T=50 °C, p=100 bar
Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V.
1
10
100
1000
10000
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
PoreVolumestoBreakthrough
Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min)
Model Observed
FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS
CAROLL ET AL. (LLNL) 2013 - IJGHGC 16S (2013) S185–S193
19October 2015
 L=1.18”, d=0.59”
 q=0.05 mL/min
 Calculated HCl equivalent based on undersaturated CO2 molality
 Weyburn limestone (59% calcite)
 φ=0.15, k=0.032 mD
 T=60 °C, p=248 bar, p_CO2 = 30 bar
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1
10
100
1000
10000
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
PoreVolumestoBreakthrough
Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min)
Model Observed
FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS
VIALLE ET AL. 2014 - J. GEOPHYS. RES. SOLID EARTH, 119, 2828–2847
20October 2015
 L=0.13.8”, d=3.94”
 q=5 mL/min
 Salinity = 25000 ppm
 Calculated HCl equivalent based on undersaturated CO2 molality
 Estaillades limestone
 φ=0.286, k=120 mD
 T=20 °C, p_CO2 = 1 bar
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1
10
100
1000
10000
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
PoreVolumestoBreakthrough
Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min)
Model Observed
FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS
LUQUOT ET AL. 2011 - TRANSP POROUS MED (2014) 101:507–532
21October 2015
 L=0.71”, d=0.35”
 q=0.08 mL/min
 Calculated HCl equivalent based on undersaturated CO2 molality
 Alcobaa limestone
 φ=0.15, k=0.24 mD
 T=100 °C, p=120 bar, p_CO2 = 34 bar
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1
10
100
1000
10000
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
PoreVolumestoBreakthrough
Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min)
Model Observed
FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS
SVEC & GRIGG 2001 - SPE 71496
22October 2015
 L=20.3”, d=1.98”
 q=17 mL/min
 Indiana limestone
 φ=0.123, k=35.7 mD
 T=38 °C, p=138 bar
 Salinity=86950 ppm
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1
10
100
1000
10000
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
PoreVolumestoBreakthrough
Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min)
Model Observed
FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS
LUQUOT & GOUZE 2009 - CHEMICAL GEOLOGY 265 (2009) 148–159
23October 2015
 L=0.71”, d=0.35”
 q=1.14 mL/min
 Mondeville limestone
 φ=0.075, k=35.7 mD
 T=100 °C, p=120 bar, p_CO2 = 100 bar
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1
10
100
1000
10000
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
PoreVolumestoBreakthrough
Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min)
Model Observed
FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS
MENKE 2015 - IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON – PRIVATE COMM
24October 2015
 L=0.47”, d=0.16”
 q=0.5 mL/min
 Salinity = 60000 ppm
 Portland limestone
 φ=0.045, k=0.096 mD
 T=50 °C, p=100 bar
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∆ Pressure
Reference case: no WH’s
EFFECTIVE MODEL RESULTS (LINEAR MODEL, 1METER)
 CO2-saturated brine injection: Potential for large injectivity increase
 Pure CO2 injection: Short/no wormholes. Negligible impact on injectivity
25October 2015
Pure CO2 injection (1cm/min)CO2-sat brine injection (1cm/min)
WH velocity
Gas saturation
WH length
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EFFECTIVE MODEL RESULTS (RADIAL MODEL, R=50 METER)
26October 2015
Pure CO2 injection (0.5 MT/year)CO2-sat brine injection (0.5 MT/year)
Gas saturation
Injection pressure
Reference case: no WH’s
WH length
 Same conclusions as for linear model
 Note for pure CO2 injection: WH length decreases with distance (cf. linear: ~constant)
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ANALYSIS OF RESULTS (RADIAL MODEL)
27October 2015
0.000001
0.000010
0.000100
0.001000
0.010000
0.100000
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
WHvelocity(cm/min),WHlength(cm),
porositychange(m3/m3),permmult-1
gassaturation(m3/m3)
Radial distance (cm)
SAT_GAS
Vwh
Lwh
DPHI
PERMX_MULT -1
0.000001
0.000010
0.000100
0.001000
0.010000
0.100000
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
300 320 340 360 380 400
WHvelocity(cm/min),WHlength(cm),
porositychange(m3/m3),permmult-1
gassaturation(m3/m3)
Radial distance (cm)
SAT_GAS
Vwh
Lwh
DPHI
PERMX_MULT -1
 Only thin region in which conditions are favourable for WH growth
 Far ahead of gas front gradual increase in acidity → always close to calcite
equillibrium → outside WH regime (too low Da#)
 Note: calcite solubility in CO2-saturated brine controls final porosity change
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1
10
100
1000
10000
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
PoreVolumestoBreakthrough
Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min)
Base case
Vi -> 0 (ideal compact dissol)
L/A=2
L/A = .67
T=-65
T=30
T=50
HCl=.002617
HCl=.05
HCl=.238
Estaillades exp (L/A = .34)
Model 2D (L/A=15)
best fit to 9.8 cm2/g MoReS
SENSITIVITY TO GWM PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY RANGE
28October 2015
 Parameter ranges based on (wide) envelope around
experimental and model results
 For radial application, base case L/A ≈1cm-1 based on acid
stimulation radial corefloods and field application experience
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SENSITIVITY RESULTS: IMPACT ON WH LENGTH (1-PHASE)
29October 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0 20 40 60 80 100
Wormholelength(cm)
Distance from sandface (cm)
ref case HCld238 HCld005 LdAd67
LdA2 Tm30 T50
 Strong sensitivity, especially to acid strength parameter
 In all cases strong wormhole growth initiating at sandface
 Hypothetical WH’s initiating ahead of sandface overtaken (shock front)
After several months of injection
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 Weaker sensitivities than in 1-phase case
 Conclusions from reference case run appear robust, i.e.: short/no
wormholes (LWH < 0.05 cm)
 perm multiplier < 1.01 for LWH < 5cm (2D) or 2cm (3D) [next slides]
SENSITIVITY RESULTS: IMPACT ON WH LENGTH (2-PHASE)
30October 2015
0.000
0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.060
0 100 200 300 400 500
Wormholelength(cm)
Distance from sandface (cm)
ref case HCld238 HCld005 LdAd67
LdA2 Tm30 T50
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REMARK ON EFFECTIVE PERMEABILITY MULTIPLIER
In pure CO2 injection case WH’s would
initiate away from sandface
Q: how assign effective perm?
 Matrix background and high perm
WH channels
 Assume random WH initiation pattern
 Assume idealised dominant WH’s
 Straight channel WH  = 2mm
 From Poiseuille flow, kWH ≈ 105 D
 Control parameters ∆φ and LWH
 Considered both 2D and 3D
 Considered enhanced connectivity case
(~ WH angle distribution/bifurcations)
31October 2015
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 Numerical upscaling
 Simple formula gives good fit, for all ∆φ , all LWH, all perm contrasts
𝑘 𝑒𝑓𝑓
𝑘 𝑚
− 1 =
𝑘 𝑔𝑒𝑜𝑚(∆φ)
𝑘 𝑚
− 1
𝐿 𝑊𝐻
𝑐1
𝑐2
(+bounded by harm and arithm)
REMARK ON EFFECTIVE PERMEABILITY MULTIPLIER
32October 2015
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00
k_mult_harm - 1
k_mult_geom - 1
k_mult_arithm - 1
WH_kmult1Min1
WH_kmult2Min1
Fit
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00
k_mult_harm - 1
k_mult_geom - 1
k_mult_arithm - 1
WH_kmult1Min1
WH_kmult2Min1
Fit
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00
k_mult_harm - 1
k_mult_geom - 1
k_mult_arithm - 1
WH_kmult1Min1
WH_kmult2Min1
Series7
 Example - perm contrast
𝑘 𝑊𝐻
𝑘 𝑚
= 400, LWH =100mm
log(∆φ)
log
𝐤𝐖𝐇
𝐤𝐦
−𝟏
10-6 1
10-6
10+6
Note: for pure CO2 injection: ∆φ≈10-4
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CONCLUSIONS
 At fixed brine rate, gas co-injection causes some suppression of calcite
dissolution patterns.
 Modelling indicates limited suppression for any flow rate
 Experiment: limited to strong suppression in dominant/conical WH regime
33October 2015
 Successfully applied effective GWM model (from acid stimulation literature)
to CO2-brine system (matches fine-scale model and experiments)
 Effective model predicts WH can be significant in carbonate reservoirs on
operational timescale (days-years) for CO2 & water co-injection
 Good for injectivity
 Potentially problematic for well/rock stability (depending on WH pattern)
 Effective model predicts negligible wormhole formation for pure CO2
injection (at any scale from core scale to reservoir scale)
WH formation irrelevant for pure CO2 injection projects (‘standard’ CCS)
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REMARK ON REACTION KINETICS VS GWM PARAMETERS
35August 2015

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Multiphase flow modelling of calcite dissolution patterns from core scale to reservoir scale - Jeroen Snippe, Shell, at UKCCSRC specialist meeting Flow and Transport for CO2 Storage, 29-30 October 2015

  • 1. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. MULTIPHASE FLOW MODELLING OF CALCITE DISSOLUTION PATTERNS FROM CORE SCALE TO RESERVOIR SCALE Jeroen Snippe, Holger Ott Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 1October 2015 Presentation for UKCCSRC Specialist Meeting on Flow and Transport for CO2 Storage Imperial College London, 30th October 2015
  • 2. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions. Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact. Resources plays: Our use of the term ‘resources plays’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control. Companies over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and companies over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest. This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2014 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 2 October, 2015. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discovery potential, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330. October 2015
  • 3. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. INTRO: CALCITE DISSOLUTION DURING CO2 INJECTION  Context: CO2 storage/EOR  CO2 injection → acidification → carbonate dissolution 3October 2015 Fred and Fogler (1999), SPE 56995  Experiments show ‘wormholing’ for CO2 -saturated brine injection  Similar to patterns in extensive acid stimulation literature  Very limited experimental work done with gas/SC CO2 injection  Model investigation  Impact of gas phase  Upscaling to field scale
  • 4. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. MODELLING APPROACH Using in-house dynamic multiphase reservoir flow simulator (MoReS) coupled to open-source geochemical package (PHREEQC v3) 4October 2015 Detailed model (core scale)  Explicit representation of WH patterns  Grid resolution << WH diameter  Chemistry including kinetics (phreeqc.dat, Palandri & Kharaka)  2-phase flow description including capillary effects and diffusion  Permeability, capillary pressure, relperms modified during dissolution  Continuum scale (Darcy) model → flow within WH approximate Effective model (core scale to well/reservoir scale) [2nd part of presentation]  Implicit representation of WH patterns  Generalised to 2-phase case with CO2  Parameters tuned to detailed model and experiments
  • 5. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. DETAILED MODEL 5October 2015
  • 6. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V.  3D SOME MODEL RESULTS (SINGLE PHASE) 6October 2015 WH competition 5mm…  Most of fine-scale simulations done in 2D Compact dissolution Conical dissolution Conical wormhole Ramified wormholes Homogeneous dissol.Dominant wormhole  2D WH width 2 mm
  • 7. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. MODEL VALIDATION (SINGLE PHASE) 7October 2015 Ramified wormholes Uniform dissolution Dominant wormhole Conical wormhole Compact dissolution Dahmkohlernumber(reactionrate/convectionrate) Peclet number (convection rate/diffusion rate) MoReS results (colour) plotted on domain boundaries from Golfier et al., J. Fluid Mech. (2002), vol. 457, pp. 213-254 with experimental patterns from Fred and Fogler (1999), SPE 56995
  • 8. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. TWO-PHASE EXPERIMENT/MODEL RATIONALE Experiment  Two experiments were done at Shell with CO2 + brine co-injection  This is ~representative for the conditions somewhat behind the CO2 plume front in CCS  Pure CO2 injection WH experiment would be more challenging  longer core to resolve profiles (gas saturation, calcite dissolution)  high CT signal:noise to resolve subtle calcite dissolution patterns Model:  Model experiment with CO2 + brine co-injection and compare results  Derive upscaled (effective) model description  Apply effective model to pure CO2 injection (larger model dimensions) 8October 2015
  • 9. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 2-PHASE RELPERM AND CAPILLARY PRESSURE 9October 2015 During dissolution  Interpolation between curves (linear in porosity)  Power law scaling of permeability with porosity 0.0 1.5 3.0 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Capillarypressure(Gas-Water)[bar] Relativepermeability Gas saturation krw matrix krg matrix krw cavity krg cavity Pc matrix Pc cavity
  • 10. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. TWO-PHASE MODEL RESULTS (CO-INJECTION) 10October 2015 The gas phase slightly suppresses WH velocity 260 PV single-phase two-phase co-injection (same rate) 720 PV 560 PV 760 PV 760 PV 2000 PV 260 PV 880 PV 760 PV 880 PV 760 PV 2000 PV
  • 11. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 100.000 PoreVolumestoBreakthrough Interstitial Water Velocity (cm/min) Brine + gas Observed TWO-PHASE MODEL RESULTS (CO-INJECTION) 11October 2015 Most suppression around optimal flow rates (~dominant WH regime)
  • 12. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. TWO-PHASE MODEL RESULTS: ANALYSIS/COMPARISON 12October 2015 2-phase, 1+1 ml/min co-inj.1-phase, 1ml/min Porosity Experiment (Shell) (Porosity) Ott et al. (2013) SCA2013-029 Gas saturation Water flux (log scale) 760 PV 880 PV
  • 13. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. Ott, H., and S. Oedai (2015) Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2270–2276 doi:10.1002/2015GL063582 2ND SHELL EXPERIMENT: WH SUPPRESSION  In this experiment gas co-injection seems to trigger transition from dominant WH into conical WH/compact dissolution  Slumping reproduced in model runs with gravity (only investigated on small diameter core) 13October 2015
  • 14. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. EFFECTIVE MODEL APPROACH 14October 2015
  • 15. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. LEARNINGS FROM ACID STIMULATION LITERATURE 15August 2015  Acid stimulation literature (single phase): Universally shaped curve #PVBT vs vi (or vWH vs vi)  Location of curve depends on phi, perm, aspect ratio, HCl strength, …  ‘Global Wormholing Model’ (GWM), Talbot&Gdanski (2008), SPE 113042, offers ~universal parameterisation ~predictive vWH vs vi for given phi, perm, HCl strength, etc. Buijse & Glasbergen (2005), SPE 96892
  • 16. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. GWM CHARACTERISTICS 16October 2015 Talbot&Gdanski (2008), SPE 113042
  • 17. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 100.000 1000.000 PoreVolumestoBreakthrough Interstitial Water Velocity (cm/min) Brine + gas Observed compact dissolution limit Model (fit) Model (solubility-equivalent HCl) Model (pH-equivalent HCl) GWM APPLICATION TO CO2-BRINE 17August 2015 Deviation in single WH regime because Poiseuille flow profile in model poorly resolved or grid resolution too coarse Model was run in 2D, for which GWM model is overshooting in face dissolution regime  GWM model fitted by tuning HCl strength  Resulting GWM model also fits available experimental data well (next slides)  GWM model applied to dynamic flow simulations by locally accounting for calcite saturation index through HCl strength parameter  For 2-phase use same GWM parameters – use the water vi as input velocity
  • 18. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 PoreVolumestoBreakthrough Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min) Model Observed FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS OTT ET AL. (SHELL) 2013 – SCA 2013-029 18October 2015  L=5.91”, d=2.95”  q=1 mL/min  Estaillades limestone  φ=0.278, k=270 mD  T=50 °C, p=100 bar
  • 19. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 PoreVolumestoBreakthrough Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min) Model Observed FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS CAROLL ET AL. (LLNL) 2013 - IJGHGC 16S (2013) S185–S193 19October 2015  L=1.18”, d=0.59”  q=0.05 mL/min  Calculated HCl equivalent based on undersaturated CO2 molality  Weyburn limestone (59% calcite)  φ=0.15, k=0.032 mD  T=60 °C, p=248 bar, p_CO2 = 30 bar
  • 20. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 PoreVolumestoBreakthrough Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min) Model Observed FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS VIALLE ET AL. 2014 - J. GEOPHYS. RES. SOLID EARTH, 119, 2828–2847 20October 2015  L=0.13.8”, d=3.94”  q=5 mL/min  Salinity = 25000 ppm  Calculated HCl equivalent based on undersaturated CO2 molality  Estaillades limestone  φ=0.286, k=120 mD  T=20 °C, p_CO2 = 1 bar
  • 21. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 PoreVolumestoBreakthrough Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min) Model Observed FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS LUQUOT ET AL. 2011 - TRANSP POROUS MED (2014) 101:507–532 21October 2015  L=0.71”, d=0.35”  q=0.08 mL/min  Calculated HCl equivalent based on undersaturated CO2 molality  Alcobaa limestone  φ=0.15, k=0.24 mD  T=100 °C, p=120 bar, p_CO2 = 34 bar
  • 22. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 PoreVolumestoBreakthrough Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min) Model Observed FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS SVEC & GRIGG 2001 - SPE 71496 22October 2015  L=20.3”, d=1.98”  q=17 mL/min  Indiana limestone  φ=0.123, k=35.7 mD  T=38 °C, p=138 bar  Salinity=86950 ppm
  • 23. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 PoreVolumestoBreakthrough Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min) Model Observed FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS LUQUOT & GOUZE 2009 - CHEMICAL GEOLOGY 265 (2009) 148–159 23October 2015  L=0.71”, d=0.35”  q=1.14 mL/min  Mondeville limestone  φ=0.075, k=35.7 mD  T=100 °C, p=120 bar, p_CO2 = 100 bar
  • 24. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 PoreVolumestoBreakthrough Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min) Model Observed FITTED MODEL COMPARISON TO EXPERIMENTS MENKE 2015 - IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON – PRIVATE COMM 24October 2015  L=0.47”, d=0.16”  q=0.5 mL/min  Salinity = 60000 ppm  Portland limestone  φ=0.045, k=0.096 mD  T=50 °C, p=100 bar
  • 25. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. ∆ Pressure Reference case: no WH’s EFFECTIVE MODEL RESULTS (LINEAR MODEL, 1METER)  CO2-saturated brine injection: Potential for large injectivity increase  Pure CO2 injection: Short/no wormholes. Negligible impact on injectivity 25October 2015 Pure CO2 injection (1cm/min)CO2-sat brine injection (1cm/min) WH velocity Gas saturation WH length
  • 26. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. EFFECTIVE MODEL RESULTS (RADIAL MODEL, R=50 METER) 26October 2015 Pure CO2 injection (0.5 MT/year)CO2-sat brine injection (0.5 MT/year) Gas saturation Injection pressure Reference case: no WH’s WH length  Same conclusions as for linear model  Note for pure CO2 injection: WH length decreases with distance (cf. linear: ~constant)
  • 27. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. ANALYSIS OF RESULTS (RADIAL MODEL) 27October 2015 0.000001 0.000010 0.000100 0.001000 0.010000 0.100000 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 WHvelocity(cm/min),WHlength(cm), porositychange(m3/m3),permmult-1 gassaturation(m3/m3) Radial distance (cm) SAT_GAS Vwh Lwh DPHI PERMX_MULT -1 0.000001 0.000010 0.000100 0.001000 0.010000 0.100000 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 300 320 340 360 380 400 WHvelocity(cm/min),WHlength(cm), porositychange(m3/m3),permmult-1 gassaturation(m3/m3) Radial distance (cm) SAT_GAS Vwh Lwh DPHI PERMX_MULT -1  Only thin region in which conditions are favourable for WH growth  Far ahead of gas front gradual increase in acidity → always close to calcite equillibrium → outside WH regime (too low Da#)  Note: calcite solubility in CO2-saturated brine controls final porosity change
  • 28. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. 1 10 100 1000 10000 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 PoreVolumestoBreakthrough Interstitial Fluid Velocity (cm/min) Base case Vi -> 0 (ideal compact dissol) L/A=2 L/A = .67 T=-65 T=30 T=50 HCl=.002617 HCl=.05 HCl=.238 Estaillades exp (L/A = .34) Model 2D (L/A=15) best fit to 9.8 cm2/g MoReS SENSITIVITY TO GWM PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY RANGE 28October 2015  Parameter ranges based on (wide) envelope around experimental and model results  For radial application, base case L/A ≈1cm-1 based on acid stimulation radial corefloods and field application experience
  • 29. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. SENSITIVITY RESULTS: IMPACT ON WH LENGTH (1-PHASE) 29October 2015 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 0 20 40 60 80 100 Wormholelength(cm) Distance from sandface (cm) ref case HCld238 HCld005 LdAd67 LdA2 Tm30 T50  Strong sensitivity, especially to acid strength parameter  In all cases strong wormhole growth initiating at sandface  Hypothetical WH’s initiating ahead of sandface overtaken (shock front) After several months of injection
  • 30. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V.  Weaker sensitivities than in 1-phase case  Conclusions from reference case run appear robust, i.e.: short/no wormholes (LWH < 0.05 cm)  perm multiplier < 1.01 for LWH < 5cm (2D) or 2cm (3D) [next slides] SENSITIVITY RESULTS: IMPACT ON WH LENGTH (2-PHASE) 30October 2015 0.000 0.010 0.020 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0 100 200 300 400 500 Wormholelength(cm) Distance from sandface (cm) ref case HCld238 HCld005 LdAd67 LdA2 Tm30 T50
  • 31. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. REMARK ON EFFECTIVE PERMEABILITY MULTIPLIER In pure CO2 injection case WH’s would initiate away from sandface Q: how assign effective perm?  Matrix background and high perm WH channels  Assume random WH initiation pattern  Assume idealised dominant WH’s  Straight channel WH  = 2mm  From Poiseuille flow, kWH ≈ 105 D  Control parameters ∆φ and LWH  Considered both 2D and 3D  Considered enhanced connectivity case (~ WH angle distribution/bifurcations) 31October 2015
  • 32. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V.  Numerical upscaling  Simple formula gives good fit, for all ∆φ , all LWH, all perm contrasts 𝑘 𝑒𝑓𝑓 𝑘 𝑚 − 1 = 𝑘 𝑔𝑒𝑜𝑚(∆φ) 𝑘 𝑚 − 1 𝐿 𝑊𝐻 𝑐1 𝑐2 (+bounded by harm and arithm) REMARK ON EFFECTIVE PERMEABILITY MULTIPLIER 32October 2015 1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 k_mult_harm - 1 k_mult_geom - 1 k_mult_arithm - 1 WH_kmult1Min1 WH_kmult2Min1 Fit 1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 k_mult_harm - 1 k_mult_geom - 1 k_mult_arithm - 1 WH_kmult1Min1 WH_kmult2Min1 Fit 1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02 1.E-01 1.E+00 k_mult_harm - 1 k_mult_geom - 1 k_mult_arithm - 1 WH_kmult1Min1 WH_kmult2Min1 Series7  Example - perm contrast 𝑘 𝑊𝐻 𝑘 𝑚 = 400, LWH =100mm log(∆φ) log 𝐤𝐖𝐇 𝐤𝐦 −𝟏 10-6 1 10-6 10+6 Note: for pure CO2 injection: ∆φ≈10-4
  • 33. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. CONCLUSIONS  At fixed brine rate, gas co-injection causes some suppression of calcite dissolution patterns.  Modelling indicates limited suppression for any flow rate  Experiment: limited to strong suppression in dominant/conical WH regime 33October 2015  Successfully applied effective GWM model (from acid stimulation literature) to CO2-brine system (matches fine-scale model and experiments)  Effective model predicts WH can be significant in carbonate reservoirs on operational timescale (days-years) for CO2 & water co-injection  Good for injectivity  Potentially problematic for well/rock stability (depending on WH pattern)  Effective model predicts negligible wormhole formation for pure CO2 injection (at any scale from core scale to reservoir scale) WH formation irrelevant for pure CO2 injection projects (‘standard’ CCS)
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  • 35. Copyright of Shell Global Solutions International B.V. REMARK ON REACTION KINETICS VS GWM PARAMETERS 35August 2015