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The law of unintended
consequences is the only
real law of history.
Niall Ferguson
“”
Having a lasting
positive impact
on the lives of
my clients
Robert K Merton
1910-2003
The Law of Unintended
Consequences
“The law holds that almost
ALL human actions have at
least one unintended
consequence.”
“”
WARNING
CONSEQUENCES
UNINTENDED
The most obvious
limitation to a correct
anticipation of
consequences of action is
provided by the existing
state of knowledge.
“”
1.) Ignorance
2.) Error
3.) Immediate Interest
4.) Basic Values
5.) Self-defeating
Prophecy
1.) S
2.) E
3.) C
4.) U
5.) R
6.) E
1.) Slow down the decision process
2.) E
3.) C
4.) U
5.) R
6.) E
1.) Slow down the decision process
2.) Expand your knowledge
3.) C
4.) U
5.) R
6.) E
1.) Slow down the decision process
2.) Expand your knowledge
3.) Clarify the desired outcome
4.) U
5.) R
6.) E
1.) Slow down the decision process
2.) Expand your knowledge
3.) Clarify the desired outcome
4.) Unify the team
5.) R
6.) E
1.) Slow down the decision process
2.) Expand your knowledge
3.) Clarify the desired outcome
4.) Unify the team
5.) Retain control
6.) E
1.) Slow down the decision process
2.) Expand your knowledge
3.) Clarify the desired outcome
4.) Unify the team
5.) Retain control
6.) Ensure you stay outcome focused
There are downsides to everything;
there are unintended
consequences to everything.
Steve Jobs
“”
1.) Slow down the decision process
2.) Expand your knowledge
3.) Clarify the desired outcome
4.) Unify the team
5.) Retain control
6.) Ensure you stay outcome focused
SECURE®
Best
Practices
Workshop
Killing Cats Leads to Rats: Mitigating the Unintended Consequences of Business Decisions
Killing Cats Leads to Rats: Mitigating the Unintended Consequences of Business Decisions
Killing Cats Leads to Rats: Mitigating the Unintended Consequences of Business Decisions
Killing Cats Leads to Rats: Mitigating the Unintended Consequences of Business Decisions

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Killing Cats Leads to Rats: Mitigating the Unintended Consequences of Business Decisions

  • 1.
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  • 6. Radio Show and Podcast
  • 7. The law of unintended consequences is the only real law of history. Niall Ferguson “”
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  • 9. Having a lasting positive impact on the lives of my clients
  • 10.
  • 12. The Law of Unintended Consequences “The law holds that almost ALL human actions have at least one unintended consequence.” “”
  • 14. The most obvious limitation to a correct anticipation of consequences of action is provided by the existing state of knowledge. “”
  • 15. 1.) Ignorance 2.) Error 3.) Immediate Interest 4.) Basic Values 5.) Self-defeating Prophecy
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  • 27. 1.) S 2.) E 3.) C 4.) U 5.) R 6.) E
  • 28. 1.) Slow down the decision process 2.) E 3.) C 4.) U 5.) R 6.) E
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  • 32.
  • 33. 1.) Slow down the decision process 2.) Expand your knowledge 3.) C 4.) U 5.) R 6.) E
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  • 35. 1.) Slow down the decision process 2.) Expand your knowledge 3.) Clarify the desired outcome 4.) U 5.) R 6.) E
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38. 1.) Slow down the decision process 2.) Expand your knowledge 3.) Clarify the desired outcome 4.) Unify the team 5.) R 6.) E
  • 39.
  • 40. 1.) Slow down the decision process 2.) Expand your knowledge 3.) Clarify the desired outcome 4.) Unify the team 5.) Retain control 6.) E
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. 1.) Slow down the decision process 2.) Expand your knowledge 3.) Clarify the desired outcome 4.) Unify the team 5.) Retain control 6.) Ensure you stay outcome focused
  • 44.
  • 45. There are downsides to everything; there are unintended consequences to everything. Steve Jobs “”
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  • 49. 1.) Slow down the decision process 2.) Expand your knowledge 3.) Clarify the desired outcome 4.) Unify the team 5.) Retain control 6.) Ensure you stay outcome focused
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  3. 2009 6 CEO Peer Groups Social Media Platforms 35 seconds
  4. Neal Ferguson Havard, Oxford, Stanford 14 books Kissinger Time 100 most influential Read Quote 36 seconds
  5. 2003 CA Coastal Records Project 12,000 photos Sued for $50Mil Publicity brought interest 1M views Self-fulfilling prophecy BUILD $150,000 legal fees-1st order “Streisand Effect” UC frivolous-2nd order 66 seconds
  6. Jim Collins Built to Last Hope to add some of you 16 seconds
  7. Black Death 75 to 200 million lives Over half of Europe’s population in mid 1300s One possible cause Fleas Silk Road BUILD Pope Gregory 9th 1230 AD Vox in Rama Black Cats=Vessel of Satan Led to a wider fear of cats & witches over time BUILD Lord Mayor of London w/doctors Kill pets Natural predators of rats Not business but great name for the book! 113 seconds
  8. 1910-2003 Father of modern sociology Started at Harvard/Spent most career at Columbia University Developed notable concepts: Reference group, Role model, Focus group Work on deviance & dysfunction BUILD 1936 essay “The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action” Thinking what is a company but a small society? Leader, Authority Hierarchy, Citizens/Employees, Working for common goal TO HELP YOUR Avoid, Reduce or Mitigate UI’s of your decisions 59 seconds
  9. Read the slide Unanticipated changed to unintended over time 14 seconds
  10. Types of Unintended Consequences A negative effect which is contrary to the original intention A potential source of future problems which is commonly referred to as Murphy’s Law A positive unexpected benefit called serendipity All are bad for you as the leader STORY Look at the conditions 1 billion presentations 2 million remotes sold annually Walk the four corners of your business 46 seconds
  11. Is your Eco robust enough? Understand what the environments creates? 28 seconds
  12. Read the causes 10 seconds
  13. Ignorance is the 1st condition Factors determining ignorance in business Lack of rigor in data collection Incomplete analysis of information due to overconfidence “Insufficient evaluation” Over reliance on past experience to guide future decisions “We’ve seen this” Employees expected to make decisions without the proper training or experience-”Make it up as they go” 33 seconds
  14. Who remembers that? During the 90’s Early days of dial up Tying up switches 7 Eq. Fees Opposite effect Once on stayed on Connection not guaranteed 53 seconds
  15. Error is the 2nd condition Adds Mistakes Factors determining Error Faulty data collection Incorrect analysis of information Information is withheld Facts intentionally misrepresented 27 seconds
  16. Immediate Interests 3rd Condition Factors determining immediate interests Fixation on short term results Emphasis on personal gain Desire for a “quick fix” Consider a subset of the entire situation Clients or competitor focused 33 seconds
  17. Competition Apple Vs. Samsung August 2016 release 1 month B4 7 Plus BUILD Then this start happening Recalled initial units no good either 72 seconds
  18. Images Facebook BUILD FAA Warning like this Not good for your brand 2.5 million recalled 700 researchers 200,000 phones 30,000 batteries $5.3 billion Battery division so a sales decline of over 20% January 2017 Samsung sent a kill code to disable remaining units April 2018 Samsung reports to have collected nearly all Leave the room 81 seconds
  19. Basic Values is the 4th Condition Factors determining basic values Blind spots obstruct view Sacred cows prohibit certain options for being considered or even discussed Groupthink inability to evaluate options or causes false consensus EE’s/partners values misunderstood 24 seconds
  20. 2009 Ward 6 Capital BUILD Guy peeing Councilman Tommy Wells quote Calls to police, public drinking, etc. BUILD Retailers created the 2-pack Months following more complaints Alcohol related disorderly conduct & police calls increased 77 seconds
  21. Self Defeating Prophecy is the 5th Condition Factors determining self defeating or self fulfilling prophecy are Execs lack confidence and are not committed to the required actions Focus on self interests vs. results Employees believe outcome unobtainable or undesirable Believing non-related issues influence outcome 35 seconds
  22. Mid-2000’s Defeat device- 2-liter diesels. VW/Audi/Porsche 2009 Green Car…Jetta TDI 2015 CARB/January US File a suit seeking $40b/paid $4b Loss of awards-Wolfgang you did it too well Engine was 40x Legal limit 500k US/11 million cars/$30B fines 6 execs indicated/Martin Winterkorn/Mike Horn BUILDs Funny memes Add Bloomberg BUILD June Rupert Stadler Audi CEO Arrested/Class Act 75 seconds
  23. Looked at a few examples and 5 environmental conditions that can cause unintended consequence in business. Attention to what executive teams can do Dr. Merton convince we can lower our risks proper steps Highlight 6 SECURE® Model I think of them as Best Practices Strategic decisions! 28 seconds
  24. Review the 6 best practices Share the acronym Remember them SECURE® Time: 22 seconds
  25. Review the 6 best practices Share the acronym Remember them SECURE® Time: 22 seconds
  26. #1 Slow down the decision process Can be difficult/counterintuitive/most questioned Give yourself enough time ABCD Schedule time for strategy HBR 187 cos CEOs spend 3hrs/month Focus on important vs. urgent Deliberated now act deliberately Resist emotional decisions Dr. Daniel Kanneman Fast & Slow Time: 67 seconds
  27. PLAY VIDEO 25 seconds
  28. Found 1886 1980s The Pepsi Challenge Blind tastes tests A TASTE FOR AN EARLIER TIME 1985 New Coke response Excited with their new formula 109 seconds
  29. People hated it Lost Americana Admitted Pepsi was the taste people prefer Pepsi capitalized on the situation BUILD TO VIDEO BUILLD <3 months reintroduce original formula as “Classic Coke”
  30. Review the 6 best practices Share the acronym Remember them SECURE® Time: 22 seconds
  31. #2 Expand your knowledge Assess internal knowledge Access external knowledge Seek peer input and review as in CEO Peer Groups and REF Forums Engage consultants 55 seconds
  32. Review the 6 best practices Share the acronym Remember them SECURE® Time: 22 seconds
  33. #2 Clarify desired outcome Start with the end in mind Make time to answer questions don’t hide Provide regular updates on progress Explain EE’s roles and resps. Good from bad behavior 40 seconds
  34. WF King of Cross-sell..most expensive 14&15 #1 most valuable bank brand not taking subprime risk but then 2016 8 products, Y “8 is Great” Former CEO Stumpf BUILD2 million fraud account $185 million fins 5,300 employees fired in retail banking BUILD Stumpf became the face of the scandal BUILD Landed John Stumpf here Stumpf forfeited $41M stock Carrie Tolstedt, Retail lost $14 grants Stumpf retired-signed 2018 fined $1B for forcing mortgage/auto insurance BUILD Re-establish their now tarnished brand 125 seconds
  35. Review the 6 best practices Share the acronym Remember them SECURE® Time: 22 seconds
  36. #4 Unify the team Encourage brainstorming for UI’s Effective Delegation 6 levels outlined Practice collaboration Millennials Never micro-manage 56 seconds
  37. Review the 6 best practices Share the acronym Remember them SECURE® Time: 22 seconds
  38. #5 Retain control Use simulations and trials Monitor implementation early, Don’t set it and forget it Look for and be open to UC’s Maintain a positive problem-solving culture 20% higher problem solving Proactive and open to input 49 seconds
  39. Founded in 1880s 1990’s Kodak Moment 90% film & 85% camera BUILD Steve Sasson 1975 digital camera BUILD later holding it Executives killed it “No one would ever want to look at their photos on a tv set.” Slow down spiral Morphing into full blown decline 2012 bankruptcy Bitcoin miner Stock $3 to $10 to $3. Market cap; $30 billion to $132 million 89 seconds
  40. Review the 6 best practices Share the acronym Remember them SECURE® Time: 22 seconds
  41. # 6 Ensure you stay outcome focused Caution too much data Apply DIET Model Define, Integrate, Explore, Test Define: accurately the problem, Integrate: Transform data to info, Explore: Involve ee’s, Test you have enough data Keep team focused on big picture and the need for the new behavior “Don’t get stuck in the thick of thin things.” Don’t bury business model issues into strategic decisions 55 seconds
  42. Just read the slide So be careful 6 seconds
  43. One last example 1990s We did Coke now let’s due Pepsi Coke 75% and Pepsi 17% Number Fever Campaign BUILD 3-digit numbers inside of bottle caps Prize from 1000 pesos to 1 grand prize of 1M Grand prize awarded to 1 at the end Instant wealth with fondness for gambling 2wks 40%/½ pop./31 million 60 seconds
  44. Huge success at first Pepsi selected the number 349 Announced it and invited the winner to HQ Tens of thousands show up Not one but maybe 800,000 caps with 349 BUILD Led to boycotts and violence 42 seconds
  45. 40 truck burned bottling plant violence 2 died Hired armed guards to ride in the trucks 22,000 complaints and 1,000 criminal suits Tens of millions in restitution & Fees $5M to 500,000 non-winners Expats left but one with combat experience 16 years 2006 Supreme Court Rule not misconduct FINAL: Not their fault a subcontractor mistake 48 seconds
  46. Review the 6 best practices Share the acronym Remember them SECURE® Time: 22 seconds
  47. Play audio 2 seconds
  48. Talk was both enjoyable and informative Let me know if you want me to share it with your firm or professional associations Happy to add you to my newsletter which will have the announcement of the book release Thank the HOSTS Collect interest cards Take questions 22 seconds
  49. Talk was both enjoyable and informative Let me know if you want me to share it with your firm or professional associations Happy to add you to my newsletter which will have the announcement of the book release Thank the HOSTS Collect interest cards Take questions 22 seconds