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Hur leder kritiska händelser till allvarliga olyckor? Johan Engström, Volvo Technology Transportforum, Linköping 2011-01-13
Accidents and incidents p
Intro ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Anticipatory selection in driving ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Schemata ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Turn right at  intersection Look left for  cars Slow down Turn right Task context  schema Basic schemata
Attention/action selection model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Schemata Environment Sensing Actuation Schemata Basic Task context Cognitive control Schemata Task context Top-down Bottom-up
Critical situations ,[object Object],Schemata Environment Sensing Actuation Schemata Look for  pedestrians Task context Cognitive control Schemata Drive through  intersection Top-down ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How do critical situations lead to crashes? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],A critical situation will lead to a crash if  last-second,  reactive schema selection fails Schemata Environment Sensing Actuation Schemata Brake! Task context Cognitive control Schemata Drive through  intersection Top-down
A general accident model Normal  driving Critical  event Crash Schema Situation Conflict ? Successful bottom-up selection? No Near crash time Reactive barrier Proactive barrier Yes No Yes
Real world example 1: Car-bicycle crashes at intersections and roundabouts (Summala and Räsänen, 2000)
Interpretation – Summala study Driver’s schema:  Look for cars to the left Bottom-up selection:  None since the bicyclist appears outside the field of view Actual situation Bicyclist approaching from the right Normal  driving Critical  event Crash Conflict ? No Reactive barrier Proactive barrier Yes
Real-world example 2: Rear-end crash in the 100-car study Narrative (by VTTI analyst):  Subject driver is approaching a right turn at an intersection. The lead vehicle briefly stops at stop sign, then moves forward as if completing the turn. As the subject driver looks out his left window to check traffic, the lead vehicle stops again. The subject vehicle hits the lead vehicle in the rear. Inopportune glance.   Event 8633 Brake Gaze Speed Impact Acceleration
Interpretation – 100 car rear end crash (event 8633) Driver’s schema:  Lead vehicle will continue to turn ->  OK to look left to check traffic Actual situation Lead vehicle stops again Bottom-up selection:  None since the lead vehicle braking occurs outside the field of view Normal  driving Critical  event Crash Conflict ? No Reactive barrier Proactive barrier Yes
Aggregate analysis, 8 rear-and crashes Homogenous mechanisms!
Aggregate analysis, 8 near crashes More heterogenous mechanisms!
Lee et al. (2007) quantitative analysis of 100-car study rear end events (same data) Eyes-off-road is what distinguishes the crashes TTC similar between crashes and near crashes
Some implications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Session 48 Johan Engström

  • 1. Hur leder kritiska händelser till allvarliga olyckor? Johan Engström, Volvo Technology Transportforum, Linköping 2011-01-13
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. A general accident model Normal driving Critical event Crash Schema Situation Conflict ? Successful bottom-up selection? No Near crash time Reactive barrier Proactive barrier Yes No Yes
  • 10. Real world example 1: Car-bicycle crashes at intersections and roundabouts (Summala and Räsänen, 2000)
  • 11. Interpretation – Summala study Driver’s schema: Look for cars to the left Bottom-up selection: None since the bicyclist appears outside the field of view Actual situation Bicyclist approaching from the right Normal driving Critical event Crash Conflict ? No Reactive barrier Proactive barrier Yes
  • 12. Real-world example 2: Rear-end crash in the 100-car study Narrative (by VTTI analyst): Subject driver is approaching a right turn at an intersection. The lead vehicle briefly stops at stop sign, then moves forward as if completing the turn. As the subject driver looks out his left window to check traffic, the lead vehicle stops again. The subject vehicle hits the lead vehicle in the rear. Inopportune glance. Event 8633 Brake Gaze Speed Impact Acceleration
  • 13. Interpretation – 100 car rear end crash (event 8633) Driver’s schema: Lead vehicle will continue to turn -> OK to look left to check traffic Actual situation Lead vehicle stops again Bottom-up selection: None since the lead vehicle braking occurs outside the field of view Normal driving Critical event Crash Conflict ? No Reactive barrier Proactive barrier Yes
  • 14. Aggregate analysis, 8 rear-and crashes Homogenous mechanisms!
  • 15. Aggregate analysis, 8 near crashes More heterogenous mechanisms!
  • 16. Lee et al. (2007) quantitative analysis of 100-car study rear end events (same data) Eyes-off-road is what distinguishes the crashes TTC similar between crashes and near crashes
  • 17.
  • 18.