UWest IDS 330 Environmental Leadership Fall, 2020 December 8 & 10

1. CLIMATE CHANGE

2. IPCC 5th Assessment Report
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

4. https://www2.slideshare.net/IPCCGeneva/fifth-assessment-report-working-group-ii-presentation
IMPACTS, ADAPTATION & VULNERABILITIES

5. MITIGATION
https://www2.slideshare.net/IPCCGeneva/fifth-assessment-report-working-group-iii

6. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
synthesis-report/

7. Composition of the Atmosphere
http://www.agci.org/classroom/atmosphere/

8. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases

9. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2020-04/gases-by-source-2020-caption.jpg

11. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SPM.03-01-1.png

12. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SPM.04_rev1-01-1.png

13. http://na.unep.net/siouxfalls/publications/early_warning.pdf

14. Summary Graph
This figure shows a summary
of estimated peak rates of
climate change and sizes of
changes associated with
various classes of cause. Ice
ages and tectonic movement
would be considered slow, and
volcanic eruptions and changes
in solar heating would be
relatively fast. Please note that
the axes are logarithmic. Also,
the plotted line is drawn to
assist in seeing the relationship
between speed, size, and
duration of climate change. In
this figure, human-caused
climate change falls within
natural variability. Projections
of human influence, however,
may place the human-caused
climate change outside what
is considered natural.
http://climate-expeditions.org/public/human-impacts-
on-climate-change.html

15. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1081/
“Downscaling of Global Climate Models”
– to provide risk assessments that are “actionable”

16. “What do we know today
about how global temperature
changes?
“The temperature of the air near the surface has been
measured by land, sea and satellite instruments, very
accurately since the 1970s and fairly accurately since the
late 19th century (black curve in GRAPH A, below). Four
main influences are known, and combining these gives
quite a good match to the observations (orange curve in
A). The known influences are: irregular “El Niño”
fluctuations in the upwelling of deep cold waters in the
tropical Pacific Ocean, which cool or warm the air for a
few years (purple curve in B); sulfate smog particles
emitted in volcanic eruptions, such as El Chichón in 1982
and Pinatubo in 1991, which bring temporary cooling
(blue curve); a quasi-regular cycle in the Sun’s activity
that changes the radiation received at Earth (green
curve); and human ("anthropogenic") changes —
primarily emission of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, but
also other greenhouse gases and pollution such as
smoke, and land-use changes such as deforestation (red
curve). Theorists can calculate the actual influence of
each factor, but only approximately. The authors of the
model shown in the graph adjusted the weights to give
the best fit to the observations. In particular, the global
heating since the 1970s can be explained only by
humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. Note, for example,
how the temperature trend in the first decade of the 21st
century was generally flat because an upward push by
anthropogenic forces was temporarily offset by a
downward pull as solar activity decreased and the
oceans absorbed more heat than usual from the
atmosphere (sea water temperatures in fact continued to
rise).”
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm

20. New York City

21. http://www.fta.dot
.gov/documents/F
TA_0001_-
_Flooded_Bus_Bar
ns_and_Buckled_R
ails.pdf

24. http://www.nyserda.ny.gov/-/media/Files/Publications/Research/Environmental/EMEP/climaid/ClimAID-Transportation.pdf

25. http://www.nyserda.ny.gov/-/media/Files/Publications/Research/Environmental/EMEP/climaid/ClimAID-Transportation.pdf

26. New York
City Subway
Hurricane
Sandy
Recovery
Service As of
Nov 1 [2012]
http://www.wnyc.org/story
/286581-subway-flooding-
predictable-eerily-matches-
climate-change-model/

27. “Port Jefferson, NY” US National Weather Service
http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/Sandy/ManhattanLexingtonAve_WzohaibFl
ickrNHCReport.jpg

28. The Precautionary Principle
“…the “precautionary principle” is a notion which supports taking
protective action before there is complete scientific proof of a risk;
that is, action should not be delayed simply because full scientific
information is lacking. The “precautionary principle” or
precautionary approach has been incorporated into several
international environmental agreements, and some claim that it is
now recognized as a general principle of international
environmental law.”

29. BUT…
what happens when two precautionary
principles seem to collide….?
An “Economic” Principle (Jobs!)
and
An “Environmental” Principle (Health!)

30. IPCC 5th Assessment Report
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
https://www.slideshare.net/IPCCGeneva/fifth-assessment-report-synthesis-report

31. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the
international body for assessing the science related to climate
change. The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) to provide policymakers with regular assessments of the
scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and
options for adaptation and mitigation. IPCC assessments provide
a scientific basis for governments at all levels to develop climate-
related policies, and they underlie negotiations at the UN Climate
Conference – the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC). The assessments are policy-relevant
but not policy-prescriptive: they may present projections of
future climate change based on different scenarios and the risks
that climate change poses and discuss the implications of
response options, but they do not tell policymakers what actions
to take.”
http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/factsheets/FS_what_ipcc.pdf

32. https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

33. Climate “Elevator Pitch”:
Naomi Oreskes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rgapv3xDVDc

34. Climate “Elevator Pitch”:
Eric Rignot
http://climatecrocks.com/2015/02/09/climate-elevator-pitch-glaciologist-eric-rignot/

35. Climate Change: a Brief History

36. http://ca.pbslearningmedia.org/resource/ess05.sci.ess.watcyc.naturalchange/
natural-climate-change-in-djibouti-africa/

37. The Discovery of Global Warming (Feb 2015)
• 1784 Benjamin Franklin, "Meteorological Imaginations and
Conjectures (Paper Read 1784)." Memoirs of the Literary and
Philosophical Society of Manchester 2nd ed., 1789: 373-77.
REPRINTED Weatherwise 35, 262 (1982).
• 1801William Herschel, "Observations Tending to Investigate
the Nature of the Sun..." Philosophical Transactions of the
Royal Society of London 265: 265-318.
• 1824 Joseph Fourier, "Remarques Générales Sur Les
Températures Du Globe Terrestre Et Des Espaces
Planétaires." Annales de Chemie et de Physique 27: 136-67.
Translation by Ebeneser Burgess, "General Remarks on the
Temperature of the Earth and Outer Space," American
Journal of Science 32: 1-20 (1837) online here.
• 1827 Joseph Fourier, "Mémoire Sur Les Températures Du
Globe Terrestre Et Des Espaces Planétaires." Mémoires de
l'Académie Royale des Sciences 7: 569-604.
• 1838 Claude Pouillet, "Mémoire Sur La Chaleur Solaire..."
Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences 7: 24-65.
Translation by Richard Taylor, "Memoir on Solar Heat, the
Radiative Effects of the Atmosphere, and the Temperature of
Space," Scientific Memoirs 4 (London: Taylor and Francis,
1846), online here.
• 1844 J. Sparks, Life of Benjamin Franklin, Vol. 6. Boston:
Tappan & Dennett.
• 1861 John Tyndall, "On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat
by Gases and Vapours..." Philosophical Magazine ser. 4, 22:
169-94, 273-85. Online here.
• 1863 John Tyndall, "On Radiation through the Earth's
Atmosphere." Philosophical Magazine ser. 4, 25: 200-206.
• 1863 John Tyndall, "On the Relation of Radiant Heat to
Aqueous Vapor." Philosophical Magazine ser. 4, 26: 30-54.
• 1864 James Croll, "On the Physical Cause of the Change of
Climate During Geological Epochs." Philosophical Magazine
28: 121-37.
• 1873 W. Köppen, "Uber Mehrjährige Perioden der Witterung,
Insbesondere Über die 11jährige Periode der Temperatur."
Zeitschrift der Osterreichischen Gesellschaft für Meteorologie
8: 241-48, 141-50.
• 1873 John Tyndall, Contributions to Molecular Physics in the
Domain of Radiant Heat. New York: Appleton.
• 1873 John Tyndall, "Further Researches on the Absorption
and Radiation of Heat by Gaseous Matter (1862)." In
Contributions to Molecular Physics in the Domain of Radiant
Heat pp. 69-121. New York: Appleton.
• 1875 James Croll, Climate and Time in Their Geological
Relations. A Theory of Secular Changes of the Earth's Climate.
New York: Appleton.
• 1876 J.J. Murphy, "The Glacial Climate and the Polar Ice-Cap."
Quarterly J. Geological Society of London 32: 400-06.
• 1881 Franz von Czerney, Die Veränderlichkeit Des Klimas Und
Ihre Ursachen. Vienna.
• 1884 S.P. Langley, "Researches on Solar Heat and Its
Absorption by the Earth's Atmosphere: A Report of the
Mount Whitney Expedition." Professional Papers of the Signal
Service 15: 1-242.
• 1886 James Croll, Discussion on Climate and Cosmology. New
York: Appleton.
• 1886 S.P. Langley, "Observations on Invisible Heat-Spectra
and the Recognition of Hitherto Ummeasured Wave-Lengths,
Made at the Alleghany Observatory." Philosophical Magazine
31: 394-409.
• 1888 George J. Symons, Ed. The Eruption of Krakatoa, and
Subsequent Phenomena. Report of the Krakatoa Committee
of the Royal Society. London: Trübner.
• 1890 Eduard Brückner, Klimaschwankungen Seit 1700, Nebst
Bemerkungen Über Die Klimaschwankungen Der Diluvialzeit.
Vienna: Hölzel
• 1890 Joseph Fourier, Oeuvres De Fourier, Edited by Gaston
Darboux, Vol. 2. Paris: Gauthier-Villars.
• 1890 E. Walter Maunder, "Professor Spoerer's Researches on
Sun-Spots." Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical
Society 50: 251-52.
• 1894 Arvid Högbom, "Om Sannolikheten För Sekulära
Förändringar I Atmosfärens Kolsyrehalt." Svensk kemisk
Tidskrift 6: 169-77.
• 1895 Luigi De Marchi, Le Cause Dell'era Glaciale. Pavia: R.
Istituto Lombardo.
• 1895 Eugene Dubois, The Climates of the Geological Past and
Their Relation to the Evolution of the Sun. London:
Sonnenschein.
• 1895 C.A. Young, The Sun. Akron, Ohio: Werner.
• 1896 Svante Arrhenius, "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in
the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground." Philosophical
Magazine 41: 237-76. Online here.
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/bibdate.htm

38. John Tyndall
1861
https://archive.org/details/philtrans01149074

39. The Evolution of Scientific
Understanding of Climate Change
• For over two centuries scientists have
considered and studied why and how climate
change occurs
• Accumulations of data – driven by advances in
methodology and in available technology –
now provide strong support for currently
accepted theories
• But public skepticism continues…

41. Climate Change and Human Health
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf

42. “Figure 11-1 | Conceptual diagram showing three primary exposure pathways by which climate change affects health: directly through
weather variables such as heat and storms; indirectly through natural systems such as disease vectors; and pathways heavily mediated
through human systems such as undernutrition. The green box indicates the moderating influences of local environmental conditions on
how climate change exposure pathways are manifest in a particular population. The gray box indicates that the extent to which the three
categories of exposure translate to actual health burden is moderated by such factors as background public health and socioeconomic
conditions, and adaptation measures. The green arrows at the bottom indicate that there may be feedback mechanisms, positive or
negative, between societal infrastructure, public health, and adaptation measures and climate change itself… “
(courtesy of E. Garcia, UC Berkeley).
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf

43. Who is most affected???
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf

44. Adaptation Strategies???
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf

45. Co-Benefits of Mitigations Measures?
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf

46. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf

47. https://w
ww.ncbi.nl
m.nih.gov
/pmc/artic
les/PMC6
020909/

48. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-
018-0128-7

49. https://www.th
elancet.com/jo
urnals/lanplh/a
rticle/PIIS2542-
5196(17)30047
-5/fulltext

50. https://www.pnas.org/content/114/
33/8746

51. https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/articl
e/546440/

52. THE PARIS CLIMATE ACCORDS

53. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement

54. “[US-China] Climate Accord Relies on Environmental
Policies Now in Place”
“The United States and China should both be able to
meet the stated goals by aggressively pursuing
policies that are largely in place, these analysts said.
For the United States, those include the Obama
administration’s proposal to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions from coal plants, which would go into
effect in 2017. Experts said that in practice it should
be possible to wring more emissions cuts from that
and other climate-related measures without adding
to costs.” -- HENRY FOUNTAIN and JOHN SCHWARTZ
Nov. 12, 2014 New York Times
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/11/13/world/climate-pact-by-us-and-china-
relies-on-policies-now-largely-in-place.html?referrer&_r=0

55. NYT Video | “What the Climate Accord Could Change The
possible effects for the coal and automobile industries of the
landmark agreement between the United States and China.”
http://www.nytimes.com/video/world/asia/100000003230992/what-the-climate-accord-could-
change.html?playlistId=1194811622182&region=video-grid&version=video-grid-
thumbnail&contentCollection=Times+Video&contentPlacement=3&module=recent-

56. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/climate/paris-climate-agreement-trump.html
November 4,
2020

57. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/biden-to-rejoin-paris-climate-accord-heres-what-
happens-next-.html

59. http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/11/13/world/climate-pact-by-us-and-china-
relies-on-policies-now-largely-in-place.html?referrer&_r=0

60. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap11_FINAL.pdf