1. Peace Review: A Journal of Social Justice, 25:546–551
Copyright C⃝ Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN 1040-2659 print; 1469-9982 online
DOI: 10.1080/10402659.2013.846185
Climate Change and Peacebuilding
in the Sahel
TOBI PETROCELLI, SAMANTHA NEWPORT, AND DENNIS HAMRO-DROTZ
Lands across Africa’s Sahel region are gradually drying up, turning to sand
and dust. In other areas of this semi-arid belt that stretches from the Atlantic
Ocean to the Red Sea, increasingly frequent and violent floods are wreaking
havoc on livelihoods and the environment. Indeed, drought and desertification
are forcing Sahelian pastoralists south in search of land and water, but vast
swathes of grassland and savanna are already occupied by local farmers eking
out a meager existence as they fear rising competition for increasingly scarce
resources. The scale of hardship in the Sahel underscores the urgent need
to better understand climate trends and to identify how such changes impact
people’s lives.
The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)—the voice of the
United Nations system on the environment—regards climate change as
a threat multiplier, exacerbating vulnerabilities as well as changing the dis-
tribution and supply of natural resources. In no way does the UNEP argue
that climate change acts as a single and isolated factor in creating conflict or
leading to migration, nor does it attempt to show a direct causal link between
these issues. Climate change, migration, and conflict, rather, are interlinked
through complex economic, social, and political factors. These factors are re-
shaping the human geography of the planet, a trend that will only increase as
deserts advance, forests are felled, and sea levels rise, as UN Security Council
General Ban Ki-moon previously stated in the Debate on Climate Change and
Security.
Climate-related hazards are a significant concern for Sahelian people
due to their adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts. In the Sahel,
80 percent of the population depends on natural resources for their livelihoods
and thus, resources play a major role in the preservation of peace and social
security. Farming in this region is almost entirely reliant on three to four
months of summer rainfall, except along the banks of the major rivers, lakes,
and other seasonal water courses, where some irrigation activities are under-
taken. Livestock herding is a very important aspect of life and constitutes the
major source of income in some areas.
546

2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND PEACEBUILDING IN THE SAHEL 547
Dubbed “ground zero” for climate change due to its extreme climatic
conditions and highly vulnerable population, the Sahel has for decades
faced considerable population growth, pervasive poverty, food insecurity, and
chronic instability. While climate change scenarios for the Sahel differ and
are ambiguous in some models, the majority of forecasts predict that there
will be progressively drier conditions with more inconsistent rainfall. Having
been called the “hottest of hotspots,” Sahel is victim to not only the changing
climate but in particular to the fragile political conditions in the area.
Through changes and variability in temperature and rainfall, and the
occurrence of slow and rapid onset disasters, climate change is triggering
food and water insecurities, greater scarcity of natural resources, increased
competition over those resources, and loss of livelihoods in many parts of
the region. This is particularly true for livelihoods such as farming, fishing,
and herding of livestock, which have always adapted to high rates of climate
variability, using migration as one traditional adaptation approach.
In response to the historical climate-related effects, nine of the Sahelian
states (Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali,
Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal) formed the Permanent Interstates Committee
for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) in 1973—an organization that
invests in research for food security and the fight against the consequences of
drought and desertification.
Recently, UNEP, in collaboration with CILSS, the International Orga-
nization for Migration (IOM), the United Nations University (UNU) and the
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), led a study
titled “Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sa-
hel,” focusing on this geographical region. The study had two objectives: first,
to analyze the historical climate trends in the region, identify hotspots, and de-
termine the potential implications for natural resource-dependent livelihoods;
and second, to provide recommendations for improving conflict and migration
sensitivity in adaptation planning, investments, and policies across the region.
There are three relevant pathways to understand how climate change
could effect security in the Sahel. These are increased vulnerability, slow
down of development, as well as coping and security. Climate change im-
pacts such as temperature rise, increasing variability in rainfall, more frequent
droughts and floods, and sea-level rise risk compounding existing vulnerabil-
ities (such as political, economic, and social factors), leading to: first, greater
food and water insecurity, as well as health issues, and second, changes in
natural resource availability. Both impacts could in turn result in the third,
competition for resources, local-level conflict, migration, and ultimately in
broader political destabilization.
Case studies within the report elaborate on the specific tensions caused
by climate-related effects. One such study shows the farmer–herder conflict
in Niger and Nigeria. Niger’s Rural Code, passed in 1961, established an

3. 548 TOBI PETROCELLI ET AL.
unmarked border; the aim was to protect the northern pastoral zone and the
southern agricultural zone with a “dividing line” delineating the land use
activities. With unprecedented population growth in the South and a dearth
of land management in the North, however, agriculturalists are spreading
their fields into this contested pastoralist space. During periods of drought,
pastoralists move south in the agricultural areas seeking water and pasture for
their herds. Studies have found that planting on this terrain is considered a
deliberate act of “claiming” the space and diverting pastoralists. Often with the
same deliberation, the pastoralists will “ignore” their animals, allowing them
to graze within the claimed farmland. Together with factors such as poor land
management, the observed climate trends now risk aggravating this age-old
scenario by further impacting the already insufficient resource base. Similar
livelihood conflicts have been observed in neighboring Nigeria, where Fulani
herders from the north are remaining in the south for longer periods, or even
becoming sedentary. This has led to increased pressures on farmlands and local
resources, resulting in violent conflicts with local farming hosts in the south.
In another case, looking at the situation in areas surrounding Lake Chad,
disputes focused on access to water, land, and fish catchments have been oc-
curring regularly. According to the Nigerian Minister of Water, numerous con-
flicts have broken out among pastoralists and farmers, and between different
ethnic groups in Niger, as a result of the drastic reductions in the surface area of
the lake since the 1960s. Similarly, a director at the Lake Chad Basin Commis-
sion said that the area was “already experiencing some conflicts between fish-
erman and pastoralists, and between fisherman and farmers, and vice versa.”
As the receding waters expose new islands, land ownership issues are also
causing problems among Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. Furthermore,
the incapacity of existing political institutions to resolve these competing
claims increases the likelihood of localized violent conflicts over resources.
The UNEP-led report concluded that significant changes in the regional
climate are occurring, impacting livelihoods and food security. The five
main findings of the study include that regional climate trends observed over
the last 40 years in the Sahel show that overall temperatures have risen,
droughts have been recurrent and severe, rainfall has generally increased in
some regions, and floods have occurred more frequently and with more in-
tensity. There has been a general increase in mean temperature in the region
since 1970, with half the population living in areas that already are experienc-
ing an increase of between 0.5–1.0 degrees Celsius. Fifty four percent of the
CILSS population has faced five or more floods since 1985 in combination
with severe droughts since 1970. Yet, the mean seasonal rainfall still remains
below the long-term average from 1900 to 2009. It is estimated that sea-level
rising of up to one meter would directly affect over three million people in the
region. Second, changes in the regional climate are impacting issues linked to
the availability of natural resources essential to livelihoods in the region, as

4. CLIMATE CHANGE AND PEACEBUILDING IN THE SAHEL 549
well as food insecurity. Along with important social, economic, and political
factors, this can lead to migration, conflict, or a combination of the two. The
third main finding was that migration and movement of people and livestock
are an integral part of ancestral livelihood strategies in the region. Migration,
however, also occurs as a result of traditional and non-traditional livelihoods
no longer being viable, due to changes in the environment. In addition, atten-
tion should also be put on people that are too poor, or unable, to move.
Furthermore, the impacts of changing climatic conditions on the avail-
ability and distribution of natural resources, coupled with factors such as
population growth, weak governance, and land tenure challenges have led
to increased competition over scarce natural resources—most notably fertile
land and water—and resulted in tensions and conflicts between communities
and livelihood groups. Finally, the study found that a number of adaptation
policies in the region recognize the linkages between changing climatic con-
ditions and behavioral responses such as migration and conflict, but few have
included provisions addressing these risks.
In this region already plagued with pervasive local conflict, climate
change and increased competition over scarce natural resources adds to an
already difficult situation. Climate change has become a phenomenon with
potentially profound implications for regional security and stability now, as
well as in the future. Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations
Environment Program (UNEP), introduced this very issue in July 2011 at the
UN Security Council Debate. He said, “[t]he scale and pace of climate change
acts as a multiplier which could result in simultaneous and unprecedented
impacts on where we can settle, grow food, maintain our built-up infrastruc-
ture, or rely on functioning ecosystems. Managing the potential disruption,
displacement and adaptation to phenomena such as sea-level rise or extreme
weather events, represents a profound challenge to sustainable development at
the local, national and international level—both in economic and geopolitical
terms.” Furthermore, in a statement by Rosemary DiCarlo (United States),
Security Council President for July 2013, she reiterated the Council’s con-
cern about the alarming situation in the Sahel region and its commitment to
address the complex security and political challenges in this region that are
interrelated with humanitarian and developmental issues as well as adverse
effects of climate and ecological changes.
There is, therefore, a need to break the vicious circle of recurring famines
and food insecurity, climate and resource stress, and societal instability
as well as address the underlying structural problems in the Sahel rather than
only responding to crises when they occur. Such an effort needs a comprehen-
sive and coordinated joint response by the key actors (national governments,
international community, and regional organizations). At the heart of many of
the challenges is the issue of state resilience and state fragility. To different
extents, states are vulnerable to the changing dynamics of threats ranging from

5. 550 TOBI PETROCELLI ET AL.
climate change to narco-terrorism. To address this, enhanced engagement of
the international community in support to national governments is required.
The international community is making efforts to tackle the multiple
problems faced by the countries in the Sahel, especially with the political
upheaval in Mali in 2013 and as the international political agenda seeks to
address the urgent needs of this resource-scarce region. In response to this
issue, Rosemary DiCarlo stated, “[t]he Security Council welcomes, in this
context, the deployment of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated
Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) following the transfer of authority
from the African-led International Support Mission in Mali to MINUSMA on
1 July 2013.” Finally, the Council welcomed the Secretary General’s intention
to hold a high-level meeting on the Sahel, as well as his intention to visit the
region later this year, with the President of the World Bank Group.
Evidently, both UN and EU initiatives have begun to address these con-
cerns. They have proposed regional strategies that will take into account the
sustainable use of natural resources and key risk factors stemming from envi-
ronmental degradation and poor natural resource management in the region.
The UN’s integrated regional strategy for the Sahel is based on the argument
that unless there is a strategic vision, instability will cyclically continue in the
region. Environmental degradation and natural resource management were
included among the factors to be addressed if the region was to be stable in
the longer term. Coordination will be needed between these high-level initia-
tives, such as AGIR Sahel that is being spearheaded by the EU and ongoing
work on the UN’s integrated, regional strategy for the Sahel.
Many experts argue that climate change will aggravate or amplify exist-
ing security concerns and give rise to new ones, especially but not exclusively,
in already fragile and vulnerable nations. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon
has stated that land and natural resources are key drivers of conflict, and even
more so, of relapse into violence. Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) has shown that the countries of the Sahel are likely
to be particularly at risk from changing climate conditions, which compounds
existing challenges linked to population growth, environmental degradation,
pervasive poverty, and chronic instability.
Political leaders as well as the international community are increasingly
acknowledging that climate-related issues are to be considered in devel-
opment, humanitarian, and conflict considerations alike. While a changing
climate has already become inevitable as a result of historical emissions, the
ability to manage its consequences and avoid its most dangerous possibilities
will depend on a proactive strategy of evolved and perhaps new international
platforms, mechanisms, and institutional responses—ones that both anticipate
security concerns and facilitate cooperative responses.
Indeed escalating conflicts, tensions, and insecurity related to a changing
climate can be avoided if a deliberate, focused, and collective response can be

6. CLIMATE CHANGE AND PEACEBUILDING IN THE SAHEL 551
catalyzed that tackles the root causes, scale, potential volatility, and velocity of
the challenges emerging. In bringing forward a response that enhances global
security and cooperation on the climate challenge, the world can perhaps also
better manage risks from numerous other challenges and in doing so diminish
tensions between nations and lay the foundations and possibilities of a more
sustainable and equitable peace.
Humanity is at a point in its history where it has, for the first time, the
power to fundamentally alter within one or two generations the conditions
upon which societies have evolved over millennia. It is the speed of environ-
mental change, including climate change, which will be increasingly at the
heart of the collective concern and response. The question is less and less one
of whether climate change is a security threat or a threat multiplier. Instead,
the question is, how can we assess and manage the risks associated with cli-
mate change and its security implications as an international community? If
a healthy environment can be created on the ground, perhaps a more peaceful
collection of nations will prevail; nowhere is this more pertinent than in the
Sahel.
RECOMMENDED READINGS
Kandji, Serigne Tacko, Louis Verchot, Jens Mackensen, World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF)
and UNEP. 2006. “Climate Change and Variability in the Sahel Region: Impacts and Adap-
tation. Strategies in the Agricultural Sector.” Nairobi, Kenya: UNEP and ICRAF.
Salah, Mohamed Mahmoud Mahamed. 2012. “Threats to Peace and Security in the Sahel:
Responding to the Crisis in Mali.” New York, NY: United Nations, International Peace
Institute (December).
Turner, Matthew D. 2004. “Political Ecology and the Moral Dimensions of ‘Resource Con-
flicts’: The Case of Farmer–Herder Conflicts in the Sahel.” Madison: University of Wiscon-
sin.
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). 2011. Livelihood Security: Climate Change,
Migration, and Conflict in the Sahel, United Nations Environmental Program, in cooperation
with IOM, OCHA, UNO and CILSS. Geneva, Switzerland. Available at <www.unep.org/
disastersandconflicts>, last accessed November 4, 2013.
Tobi Petrocelli is a researcher at the United Nations Environment Program’s Post-Conflict and Disaster
Management Branch (UNEP’s PCDMB) in Geneva, Switzerland. Previously she worked on projects
ranging from energy efficiency within buildings to policy initiatives addressing climate change. She has a
Master of Science degree from Columbia University’s Earth Institute. E-mail: tobi.petrocelli@unep.org
Samantha Newport is Communications Advisor to UNEP’s PCDMB in Geneva, Switzerland. Prior to this
she worked in eastern DR Congo for five years in environmental management, transboundary wildlife
protection, and strategic communications. As a former journalist in Latin America she contributed to
leading global publications such as the BBC, The Financial Times, and The Washington Post. E-mail:
samantha.newport@unep.org
Dennis Hamro-Drotz is a Program Officer at UNEP’s PCDMB in Geneva, Switzerland, focusing on
research and policy matters (including the Sahel), and their implementation in the field. Prior to this he
worked for the Nordic Investment Bank as an environmental expert. E-mail: dennis.hamro-drotz@unep.org

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