11.6.2020 Tilastokeskus ja OECD

Suomi globaaleissa arvoketjuissa
Webinaarin ohjelma:
▪ Avaussanat
Ville Vertanen, Tilastokeskus
Nadim Ahmad, OECD
▪ Projektin tulosten ja raportin esittely
Guannan Miao,OECD
Fons Strik, OECD
Pontus Lindroos, Tilastokeskus
▪ Kommenttipuheenvuoro
Pasi-Heikki Vaaranmaa, Ulkoministeriö
#globalisaatioseminaari
11 June, 2020

Arvonlisäperusteinen
ulkomaankauppa
– Projektia suunniteltaessa vuonna 2018
globalisaation vastustus ja protektionismi olivat jo
nostaneet päätään
– Ulkomaankaupasta ja yritysten arvoketjuista
tarvitaan uutta ja syvällisempää tietoa mm.
talous- ja kauppapolitiikan tarpeisiin
– Projekti on ollut kansainvälisesti merkittävä askel
uudenlaiselle tilastoinnille
– Yhdistetty OECD:n ja TK:n aiempi kehitystyö ja
osaaminen
– Yhdistetään laajasti mikro- ja makrotason
aineistoja
– Yhdistetty yritykset ja niissä työskentelevät
henkilöt arvoketjujen työpaikkavaikutusten
kuvaamiseksi
2Tilastokeskus11.6.2020

Uutta tietoa
– Nopeutetut tiedot
arvonlisäperusteisesta viennistä
– PK-yritysten rooli suuryritysten
viennin mahdollistajana
– Palveluyritysten rooli teollisuuden
ja palveluiden viennin
mahdollistajana
– Viennin työpaikkavaikutukset
– Ulkomaankauppaa käyvien
yritysten henkilöstörakenne
– Globalisaation vaikutukset
palkkoihin

Viennin työpaikkavaikutukset
Suoraan ja epäsuoraanviennistä riippuvien työpaikkojen osuus yritysryhmän koko
työvoimasta, 2016

Globalisation in Finland:
Granular insights into the impact
on businesses and employment
Joint OECD-Tilastokeskus
11 June 2020
611.6.2020 Tilastokeskus

Challenges
Aplenty …
International fragmentation of production
– GVCs, social impacts (jobs, wages, gender),
industrial/investment strategies (MNEs, SMEs)
Fiscal optimisation
– Transfer pricing, company relocations, SPEs
– IPPs
Digitisation
– De minimis trade, data, Mode 3 or Mode 1?
Escapeslides:AirCruisers (USA)
Horizontal Stabiliser:
AleniaAeronautica (Italy)
Centrefuselage: Alenia Aeronautica (Italy)
Final assembly: Boeing
CommercialAirplanes (USA)
Vertical Stabiliser: Boeing
CommercialAirplanes (USA)
Landing gear: Messier-Dowti (France)
Electric brakes: Messier-Bugatti (France)
Tires: Bridgestone Tires (Japan)
Doors & windows:
ZodiacAerospace (USA)
PPGAerospace (USA)
Tools/Software: Dassault Systemes (France)
Navigation: Honeywell (USA)
Pilot control system: Rockwell Colins (USA)
Wiring: Safran (France)
Centrewing box:
Fuji Heavy Industries (Japan)
Engines: GE Engines (USA),
Rolls Royce(UK)
Wingbox: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan)
Wingice protection: GKNAerospace (UK)
Engine nacelles: Goodrich (USA)
Aux. powerunit: Hamilton
Sundstrand (USA)
Flight deck seats:
Ipeco(UK)
Lavatories:
Jamco(Japan)
Cargodoors: Saab (Sweden)
Forward fuselage:
Kawasaki Heavy Industries (Japan)
SpiritAerosystems (USA)
Rakedwingtips: Korean Airlines
Aerospacedivision (Korea)
Passengerdoors:
LatécoèreAéroservices (France)
Prepreg composites:
Toray (Japan)
Rearfuselage:
Boeing South Carolina (USA)

Improvement in recent years
In accounting standards & guidance
– BPM6/2008 SNA →Goods for processing, merchanting
– Guide to Global Production
In data and data infrastructure
– Foreign Affiliates Trade Statistics
– Trade Enterprise Characteristics
– Microdata Linking, EGRs, LCUs
In analytical products
– Trade in Value-Added
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Foreign controlled as % of firms % exports % imports
www.oecd.org/tra
de/valueadded

What is missing
Timeliness
– T-4 is a real handicap, especially given the rapid pace of GVC change and
change in the trade ‘climate’
– More timely SUTs are needed
Granular view of GVC impact on businesses
– For Jobs, skills, occupations, gender, wages (making trade work for the many)
– ESUTs
Investment
Trade
Production
Jobs
Actors
-
SMEs
Inequalities
Sustain
-ability

What’s new in this report
Nordic Countries in GVCs, 2017
– Input-output tables (34 industries) and business data for 2009 and 2013
– Then ground-breaking in terms of collaboration: firm level data are linked to
OECD IO tables to create indictors
– Programmes executed by collaborators in different statistical offices
– Highlights the differences in how firms GVCs: multinationals vs non-
multinational, SMEs, trading status
Joint Publication OECD-Tilastokeskus, 2020
-Enhanced statistical inputs (MDL, FLEED/FLOK, Employment)
-Widened research scope: Includes new dimensions of firm characteristics : firm
productivity, high growth, young and old
- Provides insights on jobs, wages, skills and gender
- The report focuses on main messages but considerable additional information has
been generated that can be capitalised on in follow-up research

Presentation outline
– Data infrastructure: for more granular (extended) supply-use tables.
– Highlights of the report:
❖Finnish integration in GVCs
❖GVCs and its impact on employment
❖GVCs and Wages
– A spotlight on covid-19
– Methodology (as background)

Data infrastructure

Micro data linking –
building on previous work
13Statistics Finland11 June, 2020
Statistical Business
Register
OFATS:
Affiliates abroad
IFATS:
Foreign affiliates in
Finland
Structural Business
Statistics
Business
Demography
International Trade
in Services
International Trade
in Goods
FLEED & FOLK
Employees-
Employers

More granular GVC statistics –
data coverage
– Supply and use tables
– 2012-2018
– Annual national accounts main aggregates
– 2013-2018
– Micro data linking
– Turnover, value-added, employment (FTE), purchases, imports, exports
– 2008-2018
– International trade in goods statistics (ITGS) by partner
– 2008-2018
– International trade in services (ITS) by partner
– 2013-2018
– FLEED/FOLK employment data
– 2008-2016

More granular GVC statistics –
firm heterogeneities
Enterprise trading status
•Two-way traders / Exporters / Importers / Occasional traders
Enterprise size and dependency
•Dependent / Independent Micro (0-<10 FTE) / Small (10-<50 FTE) / Medium (50-<250 FTE) / Large (>250 FTE)
Enterprise ownership
•Domestic, no affiliates / Domestic MNE / Foreign MNE
Enterprise age
•Young / Old
Enterprise size and ownership
•Domestic, no affiliates / Domestic MNE / Foreign MNE Micro (0-<10 FTE) / Small (10-<50 FTE) / Medium (50-<250 FTE) / Large (>250 FTE)
Enterprise growth rate
•High growth enterprise / Normal enterprise
Enterprise productivity
•High productivity enterprise / Normal enterprise

Main findings
Finnish integration into Global Value Chains (GVCs)

What do we want to know?
– Reliance on imports for exports – are there differences related to firm size
or ownership?
– The rise of service industries – who will replace declining exports in
manufacturing industries?
– Exports and spillover effects – do small firms benefit from large firms´
exports?
– Employment and GVCs – who benefits from trade and GVC participation?
– Wages and GVCs – what are the effects of trade participation on income
and income disparities?

The foreign content of Finland’s exports is 10
percentage points higher than previously estimated

Higher recorded foreign content shares results in
lower recorded export intensity shares
– But export intensities in individual
industries remain high relative to
other countries

Services industries as a whole now outweigh
manufacturing industries
– Domestic value-
added exports
have grown in
many services
industries
– Especially in those
were Finland has
strong
comparative
advantages, such
as IT services.
– FDI and ‘born
globals’ have been
important drivers

Size matters – but having big friends can mitigate
size-class biases
– Size class
disadvantages in
economies of
scale
– Upstream
integration to
spread gains
from trade
Foreign content share of exports by firm size and dependence, 2018

Size matters – exposure to foreign markets is not
uniformly spread
– Larger firms are
much more
‘global’
– Micro firms
have a
particularly high
exposure to
Russia

Main findings
GVCs and the impact on employment

Globalisation looks like a smoking gun for job losses
in many manufacturing industries…
– Manufacturing
industries shed
around 80,000
jobs (around 20%)
– Computers and
electronics
(17,600) and
textiles (4,400);
both shed over
30% of their total
employment

…but globalisation has also provided a source of
significant services jobs growth

Multinationals have played an important role in
sustaining jobs dependent on foreign demand
– Over 45% of jobs in
multinationals are
sustained by
exports
– Interestingly,
Swedish
multinationals
employed more
workers (91,000)
than Finnish
multinationals
(86,000) in 2016

Job gains through GVC participation are not
spread evenly: high-skilled workers benefit most
– Two-way traders
employed
proportionally
more high-skilled
workers
– The same goes
for both domestic
and foreign
MNEs

Job gains through GVC participation are not
spread evenly: men benefit more
– Men benefit
disproportionally
more than women
from employment
embodied in
exports
– This largely reflects
lower female
participation in
export-intensive
industries

Main findings
GVCs and wages

Two-way traders pay significantly higher salaries
than the average firm, across nearly all industries…
– … while non-GVC
participating firms
tend to pay lower
salaries than the
average firm
– Two-way traders
pay average
salaries of 49,000
compared to 32,000
for occasional
traders

The higher the degree of GVC integration, the
lower the wage disparities
– Industries more
highly exposed to
GVCs have smaller
wage disparities
between the top
10% and the
bottom 10%

Wages disparities are lower within exporting firms but
there are signs these are increasing

… with the lowest earners falling behind
– Pay gaps are
especially skewed
for the bottom 10%
of earners in non-
GVC participating
firms
– Moreover, wages
for the bottom 10%
have seen little
change in the last
decade across all
firm types

Women work disproportionately in lower-wage
industries, with only indirect links to GVCs
– Women typically
work in lower-paid
activities with limited
links to GVCs or
those that have been
adversely exposed
to foreign
competition (e.g.
textiles) >> meaning
that they have
benefited less from
the gains from trade.

Early spotlight on
covid-19
An application: which firms and workers are hit
hardest by ‘containment measures’ due to covid-19?

Covid-19: disrupted global supply chains will
likely directly affect larger manufacturing firms
– High integration of
manufacturing
sector
– The direct impact
of disruption in
global supply
chains is likely to
be more limited in
other parts of the
economy
– However,
upstream suppliers
especially to
manufacturing, will
be affected
indirectly
Finnish GVC integration by industry, 2018

Covid-19: containment measures1 have
distributional impacts
1either imposed by the
government or through changes
in consumer behaviour
– Micro firms without
affiliates operate in
strongly consumer-
oriented services
industries
– So, SMEs, which
typically have limited
cash reserves, are
particularly
vulnerable to a
prolonged lockdown

Conclusions
– Helped shed more light on inclusive globalisation → highly relevant
policy goal.
– Moved the needle away from averages to better address
distributional impacts.
– Collaboration with Statistics Finland has demonstrated feasibility and
benefits of tapping into and making BETTER USE OF EXISTING
data.
– We hope that that will help motivate uptake of similar initiatives in,
and collaborations with, other countries

Methodology in one chart
Microdata
SUTs
Extended
SUTs
Extend IO
tables
TIVA/GVCs
Indicators
Value added, turnover,
imports, exports,
employment (age,
education) by firm
heterogeneity
Underlying
production
function of the
Finnish economy
A matrix algebra
which convert
extended SUTs to
extended IO tables
Use business data
to breakdown
traditional SUTs with
some stylised
assumptions
Hummels et al.
(2001) The Nature
and Growth of
Vertical
Specialization

Level breakdown by firm type
– Recognised the strong demand for foreign ownership breakdowns (i.e. the role of
MNEs)
– Separately identifies ‘independent’ SME and SME establishmentsthat are part of a
larger group
– Cross tabulation is encouraged, i.e. by size and ownership, by size and trading status
– No need to disaggregate every column in SUTs: i.e. non-business sector activities
(unless significant shares are provided by the private sector); limited heterogeneity in
certain industries in practice; or confidentiality
– Consider alternative aggregations (for example by grouping industries) might
provide avenues for providing more meaningful insights on production
– Definition of 'export intensive' & SMEs – can be country specific
– Inter-firm relationships is most important challenges: VAT registrations, reporters to
include the counterpart VAT number for each transaction
– Capital flow matrix
– Good practice to conduct sensitivity analyses

Beyond value-added lines
– Jobs and compensation (and its distribution)
– With breakdowns by job quality and employee characteristics
– Natural environment (CO2 and other air emissions)
– Information on the distribution (or redistribution) of income accounts
by industry and firm type, using FDI and repatriated earnings etc.

Extended Supply Table
Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3
Product 1
Product 2
Product 3
Product 1
Product 2
Product 3
Total supply
Total supply
at basic
prices
Country A
Domestic-controlled firms Foreign controlled affiliates
Imports
CountryA
Domestic
controlled
firms
Foreign
controlled
affiliates

Extend Use Table
Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3
Product 1
Product 2
Product 3
Product 1
Product 2
Product 3
Product 1
Product 2
Product 3
Labour compensation
Operating surplus
Taxes less subsidies on production
Taxes less subsidies on products
Cif-fob adjustments
Value added
Total use
Country A
Domestic-controlled firms Foreign controlled affiliates Final
Demands
Exports
CountryA
Domestic
controlled
firms
Foreign
controlled
affiliates
Imports

For details: Term of Reference
Terms of reference Extended Supply-Use Tables
– https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/tiva/eSUTs_TOR.pdf
– http://papers.nber.org/conf_papers/f100626.pdf
Research projects
–Nordic Countries in Global Value Chains (2017)
–Accounting for firm heterogeneity in global value chains: The role of Small and
Medium sized Enterprises, WPTGS (2018) paper
–Globalisation in Finland: Granular insights into businesses and employment

11.6.2020 Tilastokeskus ja OECD

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11.6.2020 Tilastokeskus ja OECD