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D A N M C C L U R E & S A G A R PA U L
THE FUTURE IS MESSY
THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
(THE MESSY REVOLUTION)
2
“In its scale, scope and complexity the transformation will
be unlike any humankind has experienced before …
disrupting almost every industry in every country.
The breadth and depth of these changes herald the
transformation of entire systems of production,
management, and governance.”
How Do We Go To This
Next Level?
End of Dentistry
5
Impossible
Problems
Demand Messy
Solutions
Aravind Eye Hospital
ARAVIND EYE CARE – THE CHALLENGE
6
 Worldwide – 45 million blind
 India - 12million
 4 million more each year
 80% of this preventable
 Lack of doctors
 400 surgeries / year
 Intraocular lenses @ $150
Doctor
Patient
ARAVIND EYE CARE – THE CHALLENGE
7
 5X productivity
 97% cost reduction
 Lowest infection rate worldwide
 Scale to 400,000+ surgeries
Doctor
Patient
New Actors
(Nurses)
New Tech
(Local Lenses)
Clinic
New Systems
(Franchise Model)
Clinic
Clinic
A Short History of What
We’re Good At
REDUCTIONISTS -
ENGINEERING CHANGE
BUILDING BIG THINGS WITH REDUCTIONIST
ENGINEERING
10
DECOMPOSITION
ANALYSIS
COMMAND/CONTROL
ENGINEERING BIG WELL
UNDERSTOOD PROJECTS
12
13
DISCOVER INCREMENTAL
IMPROVEMENTS
W. Edward Deming
INCREMENTAL INNOVATION
Product or
Service
Product
Service
Feature
User
Value
Provider
Payment
Research and
Testing
SIMPLIFIED WORLD OF PRODUCT DISCOVERY
15
LEAN STARTUP
(USER DIRECTED
LEARNING)
X
Cross Functional
Team
Fail Fast
Double
Down
Pivot
TWO THINGS WE’RE GOOD AT
17
OPPORTUNITY IN THE MESSY
MIDDLE
18
But We’re Not
Very Good At Messy
(… yet)
20
 New Actors
 New Connections
 New Tech
 New Systems
System Change
New Possibilities
Evolve Over Time
Sustainable System
Resilient / Independent
AT THE HEART OF MESSY
COMPLEXITY
COMPLEXITY IS HARD
 Diverse Domains
 Coupled Choices
 Conflicting Needs
 Large Scale
 Unknown
 Uncertain
 Changing
21
Product
Quality
Maintenance
Effort
Program
Revenues
User
Satisfaction
Program
Costs
Investment
Funding
Product
Availability
Speed of
Scaling
User Base
New
Features
--
+
+
+
+
++
+
+ -
+
RIVIGO
RIVIGO
 Road Infrastructure Strained
 Freight Costs high – 13% GDP (10% US
and 8% Germany)
 Productivity low – 15 km/hour
 25 Nights Away
 1mn Driver Shortfall
23
25
DAYS
RIVIGO
 Productivity - 50km/hr
 50% reduction in TAT
 Time at Home
24
Driver Relay model
Tech
Insight
Starts from home
Goes home often
THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
(THE MESSY REVOLUTION)
25
“In its scale, scope and complexity the transformation will
be unlike any humankind has experienced before …
disrupting almost every industry in every country.
The breadth and depth of these changes herald the
transformation of entire systems of production,
management, and governance.”
USERS NOW LIVE IN A FOURTH INDUSTRIAL
WORLD
26
User
IOT LET’S YOU ENGAGE THEM WITHIN THEIR
LIFE
27
User
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
User
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
… BUT MOST OF THE IOT IS NOT YOURS
28
YOU CAN BEGIN TO CONNECT A COMPLEX
SYSTEM
29
User
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
BUT… BIG DATA AND THE CLOUD
EXPANDS THE SYSTEM
30
User
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
Big Data
+ Cloud
User
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
Big Data
+ Cloud AI
AI
AI CREATES AUTONOMOUS ACTORS
31
User
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
IOT
Big Data
+ Cloud AI
AI
Robot
ROBOTS GIVE THEM THE POWER TO
PARTICIPATE
32
Mandatory Messiness
 New Actors
 New Connections
 New Technology
34
DISCOVERY MESSY SYSTEMS
Product or
Service
Product or
Service User
Value
Provider
Payment
Research and
Testing
ENGINEERING
System Change
New Possibilities
Sustainable System
Resilient / Independent
How Do We Embrace
Messiness ?
PLAN TO LEARN AND ADJUST
36
COMPLEXITY EVOLVES (AND GROWS)
37
Fragile
Ongoing Crisis
System Change
New Possibilities
Evolve Over Time
Sustainable System
Resilient / Independent
DESIGN ORGANIZATIONS
FOR MESSINESS
EMPOWER TEAMS TO PURSUE OUTCOMES
39
Silos
Tasks
Collaboration
Goals
Efficient Staffing Empowered Teams
DESIGN ORGANIZATIONS
FOR MESSINESS
 Flexible
 Collaborative
 Outcome Focused
GET A CHOREOGRAPHER
THE FROZEN MIDDLE
42
M A N A G E R
E N G I N E E R
Organization
and Priority
Engineering
and Expertise
FOCUS
ON
OUTPUTS
CONNECTING GOALS WITH ACTION
44
M A N A G E R
E N G I N E E R
Big Picture Vision
Complex Pivots
M A N A G E R
E N G I N E E R
C H O R E O G R A P H E R
Organization
and Priority
Engineering
and Expertise
FOCUS
ON
OUTCOMES
LISTEN FOR STORIES OF ROGUE CREATION
Crossing
Silos
Rescuing
Initiatives
Leading
Without
Mandates
LEVERAGE
CREATIVE PLATFORMS
DIVERSE DOMAINS FORCE BUSINESS AND TECH
TOGETHER
Dan McClure
2016
Go-Jek
GO-JEK
50
M A N A G E R
E N G I N E E R
MESSY BUSINESS ALIGNS WITH TECH
Technology Platform
Mirrors the Business
Platform
Evolutionary
Architecture Built for
Change
Business Platform is Built
on 300,000 Drivers
Technology Platform
Mirrors Business Platform
GO-JEK
51
M A N A G E R
E N G I N E E R
EVOLVING OPPORTUNITIES
 Release one product every other
month
 Work with one fourth the tech team
 Messy is not impossible
Go-Jek
Value of
Platforms
Don’t Over
Simplify the
Opportunity
Claim the
Messy
Possibilities
Extra Slides
THE MESSY MIDDLE IS DIFFERENT
57
SIMPLIFIED WORLD OF PRODUCT / FEATURE
DISCOVERY
58
Product or
Service
Product
Service
Feature
User
Value
Provider
Payment
Research and
Testing
IT’S NOT ABOUT THE FLYING CAR
IOT
(internet of
things)
Ubiquitous
Big Data
AI
(Artificial
Intelligence)
Robotics
IT’S ABOUT MASTERING MESSINESS

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The future is messy

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/be/Eye_5787.JPG
  2. These problems are ugly and hard. And that ugliness is far more than skin deep. These wicked problems include diverse subject areas, where the choices are coupled together. Any change affects another part of the design and runs up against conflicting needs and priorities. They problems are too big to analyze and even if they could be studied into submission, they are filed with unknown and uncertain challenges which are constantly in flux.   This ugliness is hard … but it also grants us the chance to tackle some exciting challenges.
  3. These problems are ugly and hard. And that ugliness is far more than skin deep. These wicked problems include diverse subject areas, where the choices are coupled together. Any change affects another part of the design and runs up against conflicting needs and priorities. They problems are too big to analyze and even if they could be studied into submission, they are filed with unknown and uncertain challenges which are constantly in flux.   This ugliness is hard … but it also grants us the chance to tackle some exciting challenges.
  4. These problems are ugly and hard. And that ugliness is far more than skin deep. These wicked problems include diverse subject areas, where the choices are coupled together. Any change affects another part of the design and runs up against conflicting needs and priorities. They problems are too big to analyze and even if they could be studied into submission, they are filed with unknown and uncertain challenges which are constantly in flux.   This ugliness is hard … but it also grants us the chance to tackle some exciting challenges.