Ashu Handa (UNC) and Benjamin Davis' (FAO) opening presentation at the Transfer Project Workshop in Arusha, Tanzania on 2nd April 2019.

1. THE TRANSFER PROJECT:
REFLECTIONS AFTER TEN YEARS
BENJAMIN DAVIS (FAO) & ASHU HANDA (UNC)
@TRANSFERPROJCT #TPARUSHA19

2. OUTLINE
Dakar 2017
Background of Transfer Project
Highlights of evidence generated
on CTs
Summary of key agenda items
Logistics and tips to making
workshop a success
Group selfie

3. TP started in response to need for
evidence in the SSA context
NUMBER OF NEW PROGRAMMES LAUNCHED IN SSA

4. RAPID SCALE-UP OF NEW PROGRAMMES IN TRANSFER
PROJECT COUNTRIES
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Zimbabwe Ghana
(LEAP)
Mozambique
PSSB
Malawi
SCTP
Lesotho
CGP
Kenya
CT-OVC+OAP
Tanzania Ethiopia
PSNP
Zambia
SCT
Percent of population covered by CT in Transfer Project focal
countries
2007-2009 2019

5. BUT FINANCING & SUSTAINABILITY
STILL AN ISSUE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
TNZ
(PSSN)
Zimbabwe
(HSCT)
Malawi
(SCTP)
Ethiopia
(PSNP 4)
Lesotho
(CGP
Ghana Zambia Kenya
(CT-OVC)
Mozambique
Funding of National CT Programs
Domestic Donor

6. SO WHAT IS THE TRANSFER PROJECT?
A group of people/entities interested in learning about the impact of
state-sponsored CTs in SSA
National governments
Implementers, demanders of evidence
UNICEF Country and Regional Offices
‘On the ground’ social protection partner of government
Coordinate activities, facilitate sharing across countries
FAO HQ and Country Offices
Understand the productive impacts and links to agricultural and rural
development
UNC and other research groups
Team with government to conduct research

7. UNIQUE MODEL OF CONDUCTING
EVALUATIONS
• Researchers and implementers are
on the same team
• Strong involvement of all
stakeholders in research process
• From design to questions to results
dissemination and interpretation
• Transparency and accountability
• Impact evaluation part of a wider
research agenda
• What are the big questions?
• What other research is useful?
• Who are the key consumers?

8. TRANSFER PROJECT WORKSHOPS TO SHARE RESULTS
ACROSS THE REGION, REFLECT ON NEW EVIDENCE GAPS,
NETWORK
Kamagenge says
“Next year in Tanzania”
39
43
47
51
90
130
125
2010 2011 2012 2013 2016 2017 2019
Number of Transfer Project Workshop Participants

9. OVERVIEW OF TRANSFER PROJECT EVALUATIONS (INCOMPLETE)
Country (program)
Targeting
(in addition to
poverty)
Sample
size (HH)
Methodology LEWIE Youth
Years of data
collection
Ethiopia (SCTP) Labour-constrained 3,351 Longitudinal PSM X 2012, 2013, 2014
Ghana (LEAP) Elderly, disabled or OVC 1,614 Longitudinal PSM X 2010, 2012, 2016
Ghana (LEAP 1000) Pregnant women, child<2 2,500 RDD 2015, 2017
Kenya (CT-OVC) OVC 1,913 RCT X X 2007, 2009, 2011
Lesotho (CGP) OVC 1,486 RCT X 2011, 2013
Madagascar
LUL/TMDH
School-age or child <5 2799 RCT 2016, 2017
Malawi (SCTP) Labour-constrained 3,500 RCT X X 2011, 2013, 2015
South Africa (CSG) Child <18 2,964 Longitudinal PSM X 2010, 2011
Tanzania (PSSN) Food poor 801 RCT X 2015, 2017
Tanzania (PSSN Cash
Plus)
Food poor 2209 RCT X 2017, 2018, 2019
Zambia (CGP) Child 0-5 2,519 RCT
X 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014,
2017
Zambia (MCTG)
Female, elderly, disabled,
OVC
3,078 RCT X 2011, 2013, 2014
Zimbabwe (HSCT)
Food poor, labour-
constrained
3,063
Longitudinal
matched case-
control
X X 2013, 2014, 2017

10. WHAT HAVE WE LEARNT AFTER TEN YEARS
OF THE TRANFER PROJECT?
CTs improve food security across the board
Ultra-poor households spend cash to increase their productive capacity
Strong effects on school enrollment at secondary level
Mixed results on health spending and outcomes
CTs generate important benefits to the local economy

11. ACROSS-THEBOARD IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY
Ethiopia
SCTP
Ghana
LEAP
Kenya CT-
OVC
Lesotho
CGP
Malawi
SCTP
Zambia
MCTG
Zambia
CGP
Zim
HSCT
Spending on food & quantities consumed
Pc food expenditures (overall)        
Pc expenditure (food items)      
Kilocalories per capita  
Frequency & diversity of food consumption
Number of meals per day   
Dietary diversity/Nutrient rich food      
Food consumption behaviours
Coping strategies adults/ children    
Food insecurity access scale   
Source: Hjelm 2016 (The impact of cash transfers on food security): https://transfer.cpc.unc.edu/wp-
content/uploads/2015/09/The-Impact-of-Cash-Transfers-on-Food-Security.pdf
 Protective impact No impact

12. STRONG IMPACT ON PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITIES, WITH
VARIATION ACROSS COUNTRIES
Crop Livestock NFE
Productive
labor
Social
Networks
Risk
management
Zambia     
Malawi   X   
Zimbabwe    X X 
Lesotho   X X  
Kenya X  X 
Ethiopia  X X X 
Ghana X X X   
Reduction in casual ag labor and increase in household economic
activities—no general work disincentive, elasticity of leisure is low
Synergies between cash and productive plus

13. RESILIENCE: INCREASED SHOCK
ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY
Positive increases in resiliency in Zambia, MLW, Lesotho, ZIM
Malawi: Shift in FAO-RIMA index in beneficiary households after two years
0
.005
.01
.015
.02
0 20 40 60 80 100
RCI
BL-C BL-T
0
.005
.01
.015
.02
0 20 40 60 80 100
RCI
EL-C EL-T

14. Household multiplier effect greater than 1 in a few
countries. Can these programmes pay for themselves?
Impacts are based on econometric results and averaged across all follow-up surveys.
Estimates for productive tools and livestock derived by multiplying average increase
(numbers) by market price. Only statistically significant impacts are considered.

15. Cash transfers lead to income
multipliers across the region
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Kenya (Nyanza) Ethiopia (Abi-
Adi)
Zimbabwe Zambia Kenya (Garissa) Lesotho Ghana Ethiopia
(Hintalo)
Nominal multiplier Real multiplier
Every 1 Birr
transferred can
generate 2.52
Birr of income
If constraints are
binding, may be
as low as 1.84
Income multiplier is greater
than 1 in every country

16. Strong school enrollment impacts (secondary age):
Equal to those from CCTs in Latin America
8
3
7
8
15
8
9
12
6
9
6
10
Primary enrollment already high, impacts at secondary level. Ethiopia is all children age 6-16.
Bars represent percentage point impacts; all impact are significant except Zimbabwe.

17. Significant increase in children’s material well-being:
Children with shoes, change of clothes, blanket
11
26
30
23
32
26
Ghana (LEAP) Lesotho (CGP) Malawi (SCTP) Zambia (MCTG) Zambia (CGP) Zim (HSCT)
Percentage point program impact
Lesotho includes shoes and school uniforms only, Ghana is schooling expenditures for ages 13-17.
Other countries are shoes, change of clothes, blanket ages 5-17.

18. Young child health and morbidity
Regular impacts on morbidity, but less consistency on care seeking
Ghana
LEAP
Kenya
CT-OVC
Lesotho
CGP
Malawi
SCTP
Zambia
CGP
Zimbabwe
HSCT
Proportion of children who suffered from
an illness/Frequency of illnesses      
Preventive care   
Curative care    
Enrollment into the National Health
Insurance Scheme 
Vitamin A supplementation 
Supply of services typically much lower than for education sector.
More consistent impacts on health expenditure (increases)
 Protective impact No impact

19. 36%
42%
17%
11%
44% 44%
28%
Kenya (N=1,443) Malawi (N=1,635) Zimbabwe (N=787) South Africa, girls (N
= 440)
Treat Control
-2 pp (NS)-7 pp impact**
Note: Results from multivariate adjusted models (ages of youth vary by country),
Kenya results (Handa et al. 2014), SA results using dosage models, mean is overall sample (Heinrich et al. 2015)
Kenya and Zimbabwe impacts driven by girls
*10% significance, **5% significance; ***1% significance.
-13 pp impact***
-11 pp impact***
CTs can enable safe transition to adulthood:
Delayed sexual debut among young people

20. PROGRAMME DESIGN
CAN AFFECT IMPACTS

21. Predictability of payment
Regular and predictable transfers facilitate planning,
consumption smoothing and investment
0
1
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
#ofpayments
Zambia CGP
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
#ofpayments
Ghana LEAP
Regular and predictableLumpy and irregular

22. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Kenya CT-
OVC (big hh)
Burkina Faso Ghana LEAP
(2011)
Kenya CT-
OVC (2010)
Malawi SCT
(2013)
South Africa
CSG (2012)
Lesotho CGP
(2011)
Ghana LEAP
(2012)
Kenya CT-
OVC (small
hh)
Zimbabwe
HSCT (2013)
Zambia CGP
(2014)
Zambia MCP
(2014)
Malawi SCT
(2008)
Bigger transfer means more impact
Widespread
impact
Selective impact
%orpercapitaincomeofpoor

23. Demographic profile of beneficiaries
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 to 89
Over 90
1000 500 500 1000population
Males Females
Ghana LEAP
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85 to 89
Over 90
2000 500 500 2000population
Males Females
Zambia CGP
More able-bodied,
younger children
More labour-constrained,
older children

24. Agenda highlights: Day 1
Group selfie (in a few minutes)
Day 1 focuses on ‘graduation’
From what and for whom?
Are graduation programs social protection?
New element: political economy of social protection
Evidence is not everything!
How do we explain the variation in scale-up experience
Poster session at end of day, followed by Cocktail (!)

25. Agenda highlights: Day 2
A ‘packed’ day—be prepared
Spotlight on TNZ – PSSN
Gender, child work, cash+
Work hard then play!
Evening social activity from 8PM
Team-work, brain-teasers, etc
No experience necessary
Refreshments provided by Ben and Ashu, spectators
welcome

27. Logistics and important tips
Coffee and lunch provided, on your own for dinner
Please wear name tags, state name/affiliation when making
intervention the first time
Keep interventions concise please
Speak slowly and into mic for translators
No program is perfect, lets learn from each other
State your challenges, let your colleagues help you
This workshop is a ‘safe space’ to discuss concerns

28. Logistics and important tips
Answering email in your room at night is not allowed
Please join us in lobby of Mount Meru after dinner
Ashu has lots and lots of chocolates to share
Ashu and Ben will buy your first refreshment
Talk to at least one person you don’t know each day
Awards Committee members please report to Sara Abdoulayi
for instructions

29. Addis Ababa, 2016
Aberdares, Kenya 2012
Naivasha, Kenya 2011
Celebrating the collective human spirit