3rd Pakistan Edible Oil Conference 2018 at Karachi, Pakistan - Mr. Thomas Mielke

1. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke, Oil World,
Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals
Feel free to contact me for assistance at <thomas.mielke@oilworld.de>
Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook of
Oilseeds, Oils and Meals
Presentation at PEOC-2018 in Karachi on 20 Jan 2018

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Jan 20, 2018
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3. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
Prices of palm oil under
pressure in Dec, falling to
US $ 618 (Dec 22).
Very strong demand has
kept prices well above
those of 2015. World PO
exports 49.3 Mn T (+5.0).
Price recovery by US $ 40
until Jan 10 , followed by
renewed pressure in week
to Jan 19
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Monthly averages until November 2017
Monthly Prices Crude Palm Oil, fob Indonesia (US -$/T)
2015
2016
2017

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Jan 20, 2018
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Monthly averages until November 2017
Monthly Prices Crude Palm Oil, fob Indonesia (US -$/T)
2015
2016
2017
Current supplies are very large.
World stocks up 2 Mn T from y.a.
Production of 8 vegetable oils
increased 14.0 Mn T from last year in
Jan/Dec 2017.
The global situation changed from
deficit in 2016 to surplus in 2017.
J a n / D e c
8 Veg. Oils: 2017 2016
--------------- ------ ------
Production 183.7 (+14.0) 169.7
Consumption 181.8 (+6.5) 175.3
Surplus/Deficit +1.9 Mn T -5.6

5. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
Current supplies are very large.
World stocks up 2 Mn T from y.a.
Production of 8 vegetable oils
increased 14.0 Mn T from last year in
Jan/Dec 2017.
The global situation changed from
deficit in 2016 to surplus in 2017.
J a n / D e c
8 Veg. Oils: 2017 2016
--------------- ------ ------
Production 183.7 (+14.0) 169.7
Consumption 181.8 (+6.5) 175.3
Surplus/Deficit +1.9 Mn T -5.6
Looking on Palm Oil alone:
World palm oil production jumped
by 8.4 Mn T from last year in Jan/Dec
2017.
Also the PO situation changed from
deficit in 2016 to surplus in 2017.
J a n / D e c
Palm Oil (Mn T ) 2017 2016
--------------- ------ ------
Production 67.5 (+8.4) 59.1
Consumption 65.2 (+2.5) 62.7
Surplus/Deficit +2.3 Mn T -3.6

6. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
What is the Outlook for
Palm Oil ?

7. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Malaysia
Indonesia
Rest of World
in Major Countries (Mn T)
Palm Oil Production 1980 - 2018
Effects of El Nino
2016:
-6% = -3.8 Mn T
1998:
-5% = -0.8 Mn T

8. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
From Jan/D ec 1976 until 2017
1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 2012
. 2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oil Palm Mature Area
Soybeans
Rapeseed & Canola
Sunflowerseed
OIL PALMS and 3 OILSEEDS: World Area (Mn ha)

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Jan 20, 2018
PALM OIL : World Production ( Mn T ) and Yields ( T/ha )
P r o d u c t i o n Y i e l d s
2018F 2017 2016 2015 2018F 2017 2016 2015
Indonesia 38.30* 36.50* 32.30* 33.50* 3.83* 3.79* 3.53* 3.88*
Malaysia 20.70* 19.92 17.32 19.96 4.01* 3.93* 3.51* 4.18*
Thailand 2.28* 2.45* 1.80 2.07 2.73* 3.00* 2.34* 2.76*
America 4.81* 4.76* 4.04 3.83 3.18* 3.30* 2.93 2.99
Africa 2.64* 2.55* 2.44 2.38 1.70* 1.68* 1.65 1.66
Oth ctrs. 1.38* 1.31* 1.23 1.17 2.46* 2.38* 2.32 2.28
WORLD 70.11* 67.49* 59.13 62.91 3.57* 3.55* 3.24 3.62
PALM OIL : World Production ( Mn T ) and Yields ( T/ha )
P r o d u c t i o n Y i e l d s
2018F 2017 2016 2015 2018F 2017 2016 2015
Indonesia 38.30* 36.50* 32.30* 33.50* 3.83* 3.79* 3.53* 3.88*
Malaysia 20.70* 19.92 17.32 19.96 4.01* 3.93* 3.51* 4.18*
Thailand 2.28* 2.45* 1.80 2.07 2.73* 3.00* 2.34* 2.76*
America 4.81* 4.76* 4.04 3.83 3.18* 3.30* 2.93 2.99
Africa 2.64* 2.55* 2.44 2.38 1.70* 1.68* 1.65 1.66
Oth ctrs. 1.38* 1.31* 1.23 1.17 2.46* 2.38* 2.32 2.28
WORLD 70.11* 67.49* 59.13 62.91 3.57* 3.55* 3.24 3.62
+2.6 Mn T +8.4 Mn T

10. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
PALM OIL : World Production ( Mn T ) and
P r o d u c t i o n
2018F 2017 2016 2015 2
Indonesia 38.30* 36.50* 32.30* 33.50*
Malaysia 20.70* 19.92 17.32 19.96
Thailand 2.28* 2.45* 1.80 2.07
America 4.81* 4.76* 4.04 3.83
Africa 2.64* 2.55* 2.44 2.38
Oth ctrs. 1.38* 1.31* 1.23 1.17
WORLD 70.11* 67.49* 59.13 62.91
PALM OIL : World Production ( Mn T ) and
P r o d u c t i o n
2018F 2017 2016 2015 2
Indonesia 38.30* 36.50* 32.30* 33.50*
Malaysia 20.70* 19.92 17.32 19.96
Thailand 2.28* 2.45* 1.80 2.07
America 4.81* 4.76* 4.04 3.83
Africa 2.64* 2.55* 2.44 2.38
Oth ctrs. 1.38* 1.31* 1.23 1.17
WORLD 70.11* 67.49* 59.13 62.91
+2.6 Mn T +8.4 Mn T
My expectation is that Palm Oil
Supplies will be comfortably large in
Jan/Sep 2018:
J a n / Sept
Palm Oil (Mn T ) 2018 2017
-------------------- ------ ------
Opening stocks +2.1 -3.4
Production +2.3 +6.9
World Supplies +4.4 +3.5

11. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
PALM OIL : World Supply & Demand ( Mn T )
Apr / Sept Oct / March
2018F 2017 2016 17/18F 16/17
Opening stocks 10.37* 9.14 11.11 10.83 9.79
Production . . . . 36.32* 34.50 29.79 33.43* 31.50
Indonesia . . . 19.79* 18.64* 15.74* 17.94* 17.86*
Malaysia. . . . 10.71* 10.13 9.20 10.08* 8.73
Imports. . . . . . 25.39* 24.94 21.11 24.33* 23.38
EU-28. . . . . . . 3.76* 3.99 3.57 3.70* 3.57
China . . . . . . 2.61* 2.28 1.97 2.86* 2.73
India . . . . . . . . 5.08* 5.05 4.10 4.38* 4.33
Pakistan . . . . . 1.48* 1.47* 1.21 1.44* 1.39
Exports. . . . . . 25.19* 24.88 21.04 24.85* 24.01
Indonesia . . . . 13.34* 13.65 10.55* 13.60* 13.89*
Malaysia. . . . . 9.07* 8.58 8.27 8.48* 7.74
Disappearance 34.05* 32.87 31.18 33.36* 31.52
Ending stocks 12.84* 10.83 9.79 10.37* 9.14
Stocks/usage 18.9% 16.5% 15.7% 15.5% 14.5%
PALM OIL : World Supply & Demand ( Mn T )
Apr / Sept Oct / March
2018F 2017 2016 17/18F 16/17
Opening stocks 10.37* 9.14 11.11 10.83 9.79
Production . . . . 36.32* 34.50 29.79 33.43* 31.50
Indonesia . . . 19.79* 18.64* 15.74* 17.94* 17.86*
Malaysia. . . . 10.71* 10.13 9.20 10.08* 8.73
Imports. . . . . . 25.39* 24.94 21.11 24.33* 23.38
EU-28. . . . . . . 3.76* 3.99 3.57 3.70* 3.57
China . . . . . . 2.61* 2.28 1.97 2.86* 2.73
India . . . . . . . . 5.08* 5.05 4.10 4.38* 4.33
Pakistan . . . . . 1.48* 1.47* 1.21 1.44* 1.39
Exports. . . . . . 25.19* 24.88 21.04 24.85* 24.01
Indonesia . . . . 13.34* 13.65 10.55* 13.60* 13.89*
Malaysia. . . . . 9.07* 8.58 8.27 8.48* 7.74
Disappearance 34.05* 32.87 31.18 33.36* 31.52
Ending stocks 12.84* 10.83 9.79 10.37* 9.14
Stocks/usage 18.9% 16.5% 15.7% 15.5% 14.5%
Palm oil stocks likely to
increase by 2.0 Mn T in
April/Sept 2018

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Jan 20, 2018
Prices from 1 Sept 2016 until 18 Jan 2018
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov DecJa18
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
Third position in Malaysian Ringgit/T
MALAYSIA: Crude Palm Oil Futures Close

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Jan 20, 2018
Monthly prices from Jan 2003 until 18 Jan 2018
Ja03 Ja04 Ja05 Ja06 Ja07 Ja08 Ja09 Ja10 Ja11 Ja12 Ja13 Ja14 Ja15 Ja16 Ja17 Ja18
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
1350
Crude mineral oil
Palm oil, crude
Monthly Prices of Palm Oil & Crude Mineral Oil (US-$/T)

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Jan 20, 2018
Monthly prices from Jan 2016 until 18 Jan 2018
Ja16 Mar May Jly S ep Nov Ja17 Mar May Jly S ep Nov Ja18
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
1350
Monthly Prices of Palm Oil & Crude Mineral Oil (US-$/T)
Palm oil, crude, Rott.
Premium palm oil vs crude oil
Crude mineral oil, Brent

15. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
What is the Outlook for
Soybeans and Products ?

16. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10 0
Soybeans: W orld S tocks as of end-August (M n T)
Ample world soybean
supplies in 2017/18,
if our crop estimates
materialize. Stocks
seen at 97 Mn T as of
August 2018.
But weather risks still
persit in South
America.
Additional swing
factors to watch:
1) Farmer selling - - a
new market factor
2) The crush
economics
3)Chinese buying
(timing and size)

17. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
75/76 81/82 87/88 93/94 99/00 04/05 10/11 17/18F
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Soybean Crop Trend Since 74/75 (Mn T)
U.S.A.
Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay
S. American
soybean crop to
plunge in early
2018
(our current
estimate is for a
drop of 7.4 Mn)
Uncertainty
In past few
years sizeable
yield jump

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Jan 20, 2018

19. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018

20. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018

21. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18F
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
10 Oilseeds: World Production (Mn T)
Soybeans
Other 9 oilseeds
Despite a slight
decline in 17/18,
world soybean
production.
Soya Crop will still
be sufficient to
satisfy another
above average
growth in
demand by 13-14
Mn T without
reducing stocks
Production:
Sunfl.seed -1.5
Rapeseed +2.3

22. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00 /01
01 /02
02 /03
03 /04
04 /05
05 /06
06 /07
07 /08
08 /09
09 /10
10 /11
11 /12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China
Rest of world
Imports of Soybeans (Mn T)
99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18F
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Production (Mn T)
Crushings (Mn T)
CHINA: Oilseed Output & Crushings

23. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
China imports likely to be
boosted to 96 Mn T in
2017/18.
Soybean imports of all
countries other than China
boosted from 38.2 Mn T in
2012/13 and may reach
55.2 Mn T this season.
Pakistan seen at 2.1 Mn T
this season (virtually nil
only a few years back)
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00 /01
01 /02
02 /03
03 /04
04 /05
05 /06
06 /07
07 /08
08 /09
09 /10
10 /11
11 /12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China
Rest of world
Imports of Soybeans (Mn T)

24. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18F
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Total Oilmeals
Soya Meal
& Growing Importance of Soya Meal (Mn T)
CHINA: Total Oilmeal Consumption
Feed usage up 3% in
2016/17
Soya consumption jumped
by 11% in 2016/17

25. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18F
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
12 Oilmeals: World Production (Mn T)
Soyameal
Other 11 oilmeals
Strong demand increase
for oilmeals from the
livestock industry has
boosted world
production of oilmeals
by 150% in 25 years
Global dependence of
soya meal increasing
Declining supplies of
fish meal and of
sunflower meal in
2017/18

26. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
Prices from 1 Oct 2014 until 18 Jan 2018
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
250
300
350
400
450
500
Weekly Prices of Soya Pellets, 47% Arg., fob (US-$/T)
2014/15
2016/17
2015/16
2017/18

27. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
17 OILS & FATS : World Supply & Demand ( Mn T )
Forecast O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
17/18F 16/17 15/16 14/15
Op'g stocks . . . . . 27.02 26.67 31.85 30.12
Production. . . . . 225.55* 217.77 204.30 206.01
Growth . . . . . . +3.6% +6.6% -0.8% +2.2%
Imports . . . . . . . . 87.65* 86.25 81.76 81.11
Exports . . . . . . . . 88.11* 87.00 80.98 82.09
Consumption. . . 222.71* 216.65 210.25 203.30
Growth . . . . . . +2.8% +3.0% +3.4% +2.3%
End stocks . . . . . 29.40* 27.02 26.67 31.85
Stocks/usage . . . 13.2% 12.5% 12.7% 15.7%
17 OILS & FATS : World Supply & Demand ( Mn T )
Forecast O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
17/18F 16/17 15/16 14/15
Op'g stocks . . . . . 27.02 26.67 31.85 30.12
Production. . . . . 225.55* 217.77 204.30 206.01
Growth . . . . . . +3.6% +6.6% -0.8% +2.2%
Imports . . . . . . . . 87.65* 86.25 81.76 81.11
Exports . . . . . . . . 88.11* 87.00 80.98 82.09
Consumption. . . 222.71* 216.65 210.25 203.30
Growth . . . . . . +2.8% +3.0% +3.4% +2.3%
End stocks . . . . . 29.40* 27.02 26.67 31.85
Stocks/usage . . . 13.2% 12.5% 12.7% 15.7%
Concluding Statements

28. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
89/90
92/93
95/96
98/99
01/02
04/05
07/08
10/11
13/14
16/17
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
biofuel food and other
Total Usage in Mn T
17 Oils & Fats : World Consumption
Average demand growth in
past 5 seasons:
Total per year +6.5 Mn T
Biofuel +1.7 Mn T
Food/other +4.8 Mn T
Rapidly Rising World Demand of
Oils & Fats

29. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
At the end of the season
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018F
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
17 oils & fats
10 oilseeds
World Stocks in Percent of Annual Usage (%)
But ample supplies of soybeans
keep a lid on prices
(Risk South American crop??)
World stocks of oils & fats have
increased, but are not
burdensome
We forecast a recovery of oils &
fats stocks by 2.4 Mn T in
2017/18

30. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
Implications on prices:
Following the latest price declines,
palm oil and soy oil may be near their
lows for the time being.
But a new price weakness likely to
emerge from Apr 2018 onward
Average Apr/June 2018:
Crude palmoil (Indon.) 620 (low 590)
Soya oil (fob Arg.) 740 (low 700)
Sunfl oil (fob Ukraine) 800
Dutch soya oil 830
Dutch Rape oil 825
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Monthly averages until November 2017
Monthly Prices Crude Palm Oil, fob Indonesia (US -$/T)
2015
2016
2017

31. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
Daily futures from 2 Jan 2017 until 18 Jan 2018
Ja17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Ja18
900
920
940
960
980
1000
1020
1040
1060
March 2018
50-day moving average
CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)

32. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
A labour shortage, despite rapidly rising
wages.
Longer harvest intervals, less loose-fruit
collection and delayed replanting
contributed to falling yields in last 10 years
Acreage limitations.
Lack of replanting.
Palm oil challenged by many constraints
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
3
3,2
3,4
3,6
3,8
4
4,2
4,4
4,6
4,8
MALAYSIA: Annual Palm Oil Yields (T/ha)
T/ha

33. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
0-2years 3-5y 6-10y 11-15y 16-20y 21-25y over 25y
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
(Total Area 5738 Thd ha as of Dec 2016)
MALAYSIA: Age Profile of Oil Palms (1000 ha)

34. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
From Ja n/Dec 19 70 un til 201 7
197 0 197 6 198 2 198 8 199 4 200 0 200 6 201 2
. 20 17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
PALM OIL: World Consumption (Mn T)

35. Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Jan 20, 2018
Thank you for your attention!
More market info required? Just get in touch with me:
Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de
fon +49 40 761 05021
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