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2014 Growth Leaders in U.S. Consumer Packaged Goods

BCG's third annual study with Information Resources, Inc. (IRI) identifies key trends driving growth in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry and ranks the top 30 best-performing large, small-, and medium-sized CPG companies in the United States.

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2014 Growth Leaders in U.S. Consumer Packaged Goods

  1. 1. Who Are the Growth Leaders in U.S. Consumer Packaged Goods? Research overview March 11, 2015 – Selected highlights
  2. 2. 1 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Executive summary of BCG-IRI study: Which consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies are winning and why? For the third year in a row, The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and Information Resources, Inc. (IRI) have examined more than 400 CPG companies with annual U.S. retail sales of more than $100 million and ranked them on the basis of their growth performance. The study, which includes both public and private CPG companies and focuses on what consumers actually bought in measured channels as opposed to what factories shipped, uses a combination of three metrics: dollar sales growth, volume sales growth, and market share gains. The study also analyzes trends driving performance in the sector. Because manufacturers of different sizes face distinct challenges and opportunities, BCG and IRI generated three top-ten lists of the best-performing companies: small companies ($100 million to $1 billion in IRI-measured retail sales), midsize companies ($1 billion to $5 billion), and large companies (more than $5 billion). Making it onto one of the three lists signifies that a company has performed at the top of its class during the past year and has growth momentum in the marketplace. Topping the growth-leader list of large companies for 2014 are Johnson & Johnson, Mondelēz International, and PepsiCo. The leaders among midsize companies are Mead Johnson Nutrition, Keurig Green Mountain, and Monster Beverage Corporation. Among small companies, Teva, SkinnyPop Popcorn, and Kind lead the list.
  3. 3. 2 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Growth metrics We combined three important market metrics to create a composite growth index Decomposition Growth contribution due to distribution versus productivity Percentage of portfolio that is gaining, holding, and losing share1 Category dynamics (for example, category trends and portfolio concentration) Growth due to volume versus pricing Price increases are analyzed by true price versus mix shift Each metric is important, but each is insufficient on its own; therefore, we created a composite growth index 1Gaining share = gaining 0.5 or more share points; holding share = gaining less than 0.5 share points or losing less than 0.5 share points; losing share = losing 0.5 or more share points. Source: BCG and IRI analysis. Dollar sales percentage change Volume sales percentage change Dollar share point change
  4. 4. 3 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Large, midsize, and small growth leaders in U.S. CPG Rankings are based on 2014 growth composite index within each size group 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 New to list since 2013 Note: Extra small = less than $100M 2014 sales; small = $100M–$1B 2014 sales; midsize = $1B–$5B 2014 sales; large = more than $5B 2014 sales; excludes private-label sales. Source: IRI data for MULOC (multioutlet and convenience) 2013–2014; IRI and BCG analysis. Large companies Midsize companies Small companies Johnson & Johnson Mondelēz International PepsiCo The Hershey Company Unilever Campbell Soup Company The Coca-Cola Company Procter & Gamble Lorillard Tobacco Company Reynolds American 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mead Johnson Nutrition Keurig Green Mountain Monster Beverage Corporation Link Snacks Starbucks Coffee Co. Land O’Lakes Gruma Constellation Brands WH Group Sanofi-Aventis U.S. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Teva SkinnyPop Popcorn Kind LLC Eos Products Talenti Schreiber Foods All Market Panera Bread Materne Advanced Beauty
  5. 5. 4 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Top four large companies primarily grew across all three levers, but had limited share growth Rank Parent company Sales ($) Change (%) Volume Change (%) Share ($) Change (%) Overall weighted score 1 Johnson & Johnson 4.7 3.2 0.3 1.7 2 Mondelēz International 1.6 1.3 0.3 1.0 3 PepsiCo 2.7 1.6 0.0 0.9 4 The Hershey Company 3.2 1.2 0.0 0.9 5 Unilever 1.9 -0.3 0.3 0.8 6 Campbell Soup Company 0.9 2.2 -0.1 0.6 7 The Coca-Cola Company 1.7 -0.5 0.2 0.6 8 Procter & Gamble 0.8 -0.9 0.2 0.5 9 Lorillard Tobacco Company 1.1 -1.0 0.0 0.3 10 Reynolds American 1.2 -2.2 0.1 0.2 Lowest value Highest value50% percentile Company new to list since 2013 Position change versus 2013 Source: IRI data for MULOC (multioutlet and convenience) 2014; BCG and IRI analysis.
  6. 6. 5 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Most winning midsize companies grew across all three levers and gained significant share Rank Parent company Sales ($) Change (%) Volume Change (%) Share ($) Change (%) Overall weighted score 1 Mead Johnson Nutrition 11.4 8.2 3.1 2.9 2 Keurig Green Mountain 9.8 14.3 0.9 1.6 3 Monster Beverage Corporation 8.5 8.0 1.2 1.5 4 Link Snacks 14.6 9.8 0.5 1.4 5 Starbucks Coffee Co. 12.2 8.1 0.6 1.2 6 Land O’Lakes 13.0 4.2 0.6 1.1 7 Gruma 6.0 4.7 1.0 1.1 8 Constellation Brands 9.4 7.4 0.3 0.9 9 WH Group 11.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 10 Sanofi-Aventis U.S. 17.9 -14.1 1.1 0.9 Lowest value Highest value50% percentile Company new to list since 2013 Position change versus 2013 Source: IRI data for MULOC (multioutlet and convenience) 2014; BCG and IRI analysis.
  7. 7. 6 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Winning small companies did not sacrifice volume for value growth and gained significant share Rank Parent company Sales ($) Change (%) Volume Change (%) Share ($) Change (%) Overall weighted score 1 Teva 88 101 11.3 8.6 2 SkinnyPop Popcorn 165 167 0.3 4.5 3 Kind LLC 106 133 2.3 4.3 4 Eos Products 62 57 3.6 3.4 5 Talenti 82 83 1.1 2.7 6 Schreiber Foods 90 93 0.3 2.4 7 All Market 33 39 2.8 2.3 8 Panera Bread 76 70 0.8 2.2 9 Materne 48 49 1.9 2.2 10 Advanced Beauty 32 31 2.3 1.9 Lowest value Highest value50% percentile Source: IRI data for MULOC (multioutlet and convenience) 2014; BCG and IRI analysis. Company new to list since 2013 Position change versus 2013
  8. 8. 7 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Common themes among winners Industry context • Growth of U.S. CPG industry accelerated slightly in 2014 (2.1% versus 1.6% in 2013) • Reduction of traditional barriers to entry created opportunities for small companies • Small and midsize companies stole share from large companies in 2014 – Small and midsize companies stole 0.7 points in 2014 and 2.0 total points since 2009, worth $4.5 billion and $18 billion, respectively – Only 6 of 23 large companies grew market share; the greatest share growth was +0.3 points Winners capitalizing on key industry trends • Macrovolatility and inflation in protein costs, creating pricing opportunities in food and beverage (F&B) • Consumers accelerating trading up and down, creating premium and value growth • Population and spending growth in three key demographics: seniors, Millennials, and Hispanics • Consumers looking to break the F&B compromise among health, taste, and convenience • E-commerce expansion to grocery creates growth opportunities for early movers Other observations on the winners • Growth is possible for all: the lists consist of many sizes, categories, and price tiers • Small and midsize winning companies tend to turn over after one or two years, with a couple of notable exceptions (Monster Beverage and Keurig Green Mountain) • Winners drive growth primarily through distribution gains and enhancing the mix rather than price increases Source: IRI and BCG analysis.
  9. 9. 8 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Growth picked up for CPG in 2014 2.1 1.6 3.0 4.1 1.9 0.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 Change in dollar sales versus prior year (%) 2013 20142010 20122011 Source: IRI Total Store Advantage ILD; point-of-sale data ending December 28, 2014; IRI and BCG analysis. Total store sales in the U.S.
  10. 10. 9 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Smaller players growing faster, capturing share from large; small companies stealing majority of share points in 2014 Share change 2009–2014 Sales ($) CAGR 2009–2014 --- +2.3% Extra small +0.6 pt +3.5% Small +0.6 pt +3.1% Midsize +0.8 pt +3.0% Large -2.0 pt +1.5% 1 share point worth ~$6.4B in 2014 54.2 54.1 54.2 53.4 52.9 52.2 21.2 21.4 20.7 21.8 21.8 22.0 14.9 14.9 15.5 15.0 15.2 15.5 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.3 0 25 50 75 100 Sales ($), total (%) 201420102009 201320122011 -0.7 +0.2 +0.3 +0.2 Note: Extra small = less than $100M 2014 sales; small = $100M–$1B 2014 sales; midsize = $1B–$5B 2014 sales; large = more than $5B 2014 sales; excludes private-label sales; numbers may not match because of rounding. Source: IRI data for MULOC (multioutlet and convenience); BCG and IRI analysis. $576B $583B $604B $623B $632B $644B About $18 billion in industry sales has shifted from large companies to smaller players since 2009
  11. 11. 10 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Winners create demand, enabling growth across all levers All others Winners DistributionVelocity Price/mix L M L M
  12. 12. 11 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Key takeaways for CPG executives Understand the drivers of your growth versus those of industry peers to determine where you are advantaged and where you need to improve Identify the key trends affecting your categories, and position your portfolio ahead of tailwinds Strategically leverage pricing to enhance volume growth, and avoid using pricing as a tactic for driving dollar value growth in the face of declining volumes Expand how you define your competitive set to include small and extra-small upstarts that have disproportionately gained market share in your categories Compete like a start-up, gaining access to emerging e-commerce channels and fully leveraging digital media ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Source: IRI and BCG analysis.
  13. 13. 12 Copyright©2015byTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved. Madeleine Desmond Senior Media Relations Specialist The Boston Consulting Group desmond.madeleine@bcg.com +1 212-446-2856 Shelley Hughes Vice President of Public Relations IRI ShelleyL.Hughes@IRIworldwide.com +1 312-474-3675 To request an interview Authors Media contacts Dr. Krishnakumar (KK) Davey President, Strategic Analytics IRI Dan Wald Partner The Boston Consulting Group

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