The Village Economy
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The document discusses how post-war culture and economics are ending as cities grow faster than suburbs for the first time in 100 years. It argues that a third industrial revolution is beginning, driven by digital technology and urbanization. This is giving rise to "urban villages" with the communal values and practices of villages but within modern cities. The economic advantages of density and new digital behaviors will create radical opportunities for "modern village economies" organized around mission-driven marketplaces, crowd-based platforms, and social software.
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The Village Economy
- 1. The Village Economy!! ! ! ! Terrence Rohan! @tmrohan!
- 2. ! ! ! Uncommon times:! ! Post-war culture & economics! are ending.!! +!! 3rd industrial revolution ! is beginning. ! ! !
- 3. ! ! ! Post-war culture and economics ! are ending.! ! ! !
- 4. http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/06/why-cities-are-growing-faster-suburbs/2420/! http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/us_cities_in_the_global_economy! Living! For the first time in 100 years, suburbs are dying, and cities are growing.! ! ! ! Urban life, culture and businesses are thriving.! ! Poised for global growth, cities already account for 80% of ! global GDP. ! !
- 5. Transport! Car culture is dying. ! ! ! For the first time in 50 years, we’ve seen a steady 2.5% decline in miles driven / yr over the past 8 years. ! ! Public transport, biking, ride sharing are at the highest ridership in 60 years. ! !
- 6. Retail! How we shop is radically changing. ! ! ! Offline, malls are dying at 10% a year; and urban experiential! retail is booming.! ! Online, e-commerce is already at 4% of GDP of the G20 ! !
- 7. Money! Monetary systems are being re-written.! ! ! Like Naspter to music, digital currencies will upend! international systems. ! ! Peer-to-peer provides real alternatives to lending and investing. ! ! Cash is no longer king.! ! !
- 8. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jeannemeister/2012/08/14/job-hopping-is-the-new-normal-for-millennials-three-ways- to-prevent-a-human-resource-nightmare/! http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/10/jobs/embracing-the-millennials-mind-set-at-work.html?_r=0! Work! Work is viewed, valued and practiced differently. ! ! ! Meaning and a sense of purpose, not monetary upside, ! are the primary drivers for Gen Y in the workplace.! ! There are 42m freelancers! in the US, up from 10m in 2005. ! ! !
- 9. Ownership! Concept of ownership is being re-defined.! ! ! Driven by Gen Y sensibilities, the sharing economy already generates $5b+ a yr. ! ! Home ownership is at 20 yr lows and renting is at all time highs. ! ! ! http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21573104-internet-everything-hire-rise-sharing-economy!
- 10. Services! “Sacred” public institutions are being challenged.! ! ! • Education! • Public Transport! • Urban Development! • Science! • Healthcare! • Space! ! Private companies are providing “public” goods: !
- 11. Companies! Economic power is shifting towards start- ups, makers & SMBs.! ! ! Technology and startups represent largest job and GDP growth. ! ! SMBs account for over 50% of both GDP and jobs. ! ! Makers, including craft & hardware, are a $50b market.! !
- 12. Goods! Consumer preferences are radically changing. ! ! ! Big box brands are losing favor to the trends of personalization, craft, local, artisan, and so on.! ! One category alone, local and organic food, is a combined $40b market. !
- 13. Entertainment! Media has completely changed.! ! ! Media production & consumption has been turned on its head: ! ! Music, News, Movies, TV industries have all contracted in the past 20 years. ! ! Yet there has never been more Music, News, Movies and TV available to everyone.!
- 14. ! ! ! Post-war life is ending.! ! ! !
- 15. ! ! ! ! Urban Villages are rising.!! Modern cities with the communal values, practices & preferences of villages ! ! ! ! !
- 17. Denser, community living ! Walking, Biking, Public Transport ! Urban shopping experiences ! Wired ! citizens and businesses ! Craft, Local Products ! Meaningful work ! Sharing, Lower consumerism ! Makers, Small business ! Urban Village!
- 19. ! 1. Economic advantage !! ! Whenever a city doubles in size, every measure of economic activity increases by 15% per capita. ! Cities make us more productive, and life, often better. ! !
- 20. ! 2. Social instinct !! ! The “suburban era” only represents .001% of our time on earth.! ! Humans grew up in villages, and we are instinctually drawn to ! communal life, practices & values.! ! !
- 21. ! ! ! Uncommon times:! ! Post-war culture & economics! are ending.!! +!! 3rd industrial revolution ! is beginning. ! ! !
- 22. ! ! ! 3rd Industrial revolution ! is now beginning.! ! ! !
- 25. ! ! 2005 ! ! ! ! 2013 ! ! ! ! Tipping point in the digital revolution ! ! !
- 28. ! ! Villages defined ! and constrained by location! ! ! ! ! Villages span geographies and identities ! ! ! ! ! 200,000BC - 2005 ! ! ! ! ! 2005 - ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! ! ! ! 150 ! ! !
- 30. ! ! 1960 - 2005 ! ! ! ! ! 2005 - ! ! ! Tectonic shift!
- 32. 1960-2005! ! Technology ! is Niche! Innovation hubs:! Silicon Valley! Sources of capital:! Sand Hill Road! Industries:! IT primary! Tools of production:! Software, servers! Cost/time of production:! Long & costly! Output:! Client side, Hardware ! Method of distribution:! Retail, Web! Mobile:! > 2B, 2G!
- 33. 1960-2005! ! ! Less than 3% GDP globally!
- 35. 2005 –! ! Technology is Unbounded! Sources of capital:! Sand Hill, Angels, P2P! Industries:! All! Tools of production:! API, Cloud, Open Source! Cost/time of production:! Short & Cheap! Output:! Software, Apps, Hardware ! Mobile:! 6B, 3/4G! Innovation hubs:! Global Cities! Method of distribution:! Web, Mobile, Social!
- 36. 2005 --! ! ! Unlimited impact ! on global GDP!
- 37. ! ! ! ! ! Urban Villages !! +!! 3rd Industrial revolution!! =! ! ! !
- 39. ! ! Urban! density ! = ! Higher economic! output ! ! ! ! ! Village ! values ! = ! New economic! behaviors! ! Urban! Economies! ! ! Village Values ! ! !
- 44. ! ! Village Values ! Marketplaces! Exchanges of goods and services.! ! ! Why now?! ! SMBs & Makers! Gig Economy! Mobile & Web penetration! Sharing Economy! Urbanization!
- 45. Crowd! Sourcing money or information via the crowd.! ! ! Why now?! ! Mobile & Web penetration! SMBs & Makers! Financial inefficiencies! Global Markets ! ! ! Village Values !
- 46. Social SaaS! Community driven, ! low friction ! Software as a Service.! ! ! Why now?! ! Cloud! Open Source! Mobile & Web penetration! API! Machine Learning! !! ! Village Values !
- 47. ! ! ! Three principles for ! ! Marketplaces! Crowd! Social SaaS! ! In our new era !! ! ! !
- 48. Mission! ! Humans seek purpose and meaning. ! ! Employees want to build towards mission and are best motivated intrinsically. ! ! Customers are most loyal when they have a sense a of belonging. ! !
- 49. Proprietary Supply ! ! ! There is near infinite demand on the web for unique & valuable product, services or information.! ! If your good can be found elsewhere, the web is hyper efficient at surfacing alternatives. ! !
- 50. Global Orientation! ! ! The world is now ! wired and flat.! ! Customers and competition will come from every ! corner of the globe. ! ! ! ! !
- 51. The Village Economy!! ! ! ! Terrence Rohan! @tmrohan!
- 52. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! References! • http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2012/06/why-cities-are-growing-faster-suburbs/2420/! • http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/23/u-s-cities-growing-faster-than-suburbs/! • http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class! • http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/19/magazine/19Urban_West-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&! • http://usa.streetsblog.org/2013/02/27/for-eighth-year-in-a-row-the-average-american-drove-fewer-miles-in-2012/! • http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/10/us/use-of-public-transit-in-us-reaches-highest-level-since-1956-advocates- report.html! • http://www.businessinsider.com/shopping-malls-are-going-extinct-2014-1! • http://www.theguardian.com/social-enterprise-network/2014/feb/19/generation-y-millennials-job-seekers-money- financial-security-fulfilment! • http://www.forbes.com/sites/groupthink/2013/07/03/forget-the-jobs-report-focus-on-the-freelance-economy/! • https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/ media_entertainment_strategic_planning_4_2_trillion_opportunity_internet_economy_g20/#chapter1! • http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21573104-internet-everything-hire-rise-sharing-economy! • http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-05/us-rents-rise-new-all-time-high-homeownership-rate-stuck-18-year- low! • http://www.apta.com/mediacenter/pressreleases/2013/Pages/130311_Ridership.aspx! • http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB124294047987244803! • http://www.oracle.com/oms/retail/wp-evolution-experience-retailing-1896570.pdf! • http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats/a#uniquesubscribers! • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution! • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Industrial_Revolution!