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Introduction the Development of Philosophy
Socrates ( "the unexamined life is not worth living"
Demonstrate knowledge on:
What is Philosophy?
The noun philosophy means the study of proper behavior, and
the search for wisdom. The original meaning of the
word philosophy comes from the Greek roots philo-
meaning "love" and -sophos, or "wisdom." ... In other words,
they want to know the meaning of life.
Watch Video: What is
Philosophy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRG-rV8hhpU
What is Ethics?
Ethics or moral philosophy is a branch of philosophy that
involves systematizing, defending, and recommending concepts
of right and wrong conduct. ... Ethics seeks to resolve questions
of human morality by defining concepts such as good and evil,
right and wrong, virtue and vice, justice and crime.
View Video: What is Ethics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_t4obUc51A
4,200 religions
According to some estimates, there are roughly
4,200 religions in the world. The word religion is sometimes
used interchangeably with "faith" or "belief system",
but religion differs from private belief in that it has a public
aspect.
List of Religions and Spiritual Traditions -
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki ›
List_of_religions_and_spiritual_traditions
Forms of Religious Belief : Monotheism, Atheism, Polytheism,
Agnostic
A. Monotheism The term monotheism comes from the
Greek monos, (one) and theos (god). Thus, monotheism is the
belief in the existence of a single god.
B. Polytheism which is a belief in many gods
C. Atheism An atheist doesn't believe in a god or divine
being. ...
D. Agnostic an agnostic neither believes nor disbelieves in a
god or religious doctrine. Agnostics assert that it's impossible
for human beings to know anything about how the universe was
created and if divine beings exist. They are open to the
possibility of a divine being an atheist is not open to such a
possibility.
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Two Types of Religions/Historical and Mythological Religions
Mythological Religion Mythology is the main
component of Religion. It refers to systems of legends and
stories and concepts that are of high importance to a certain
community, making statements concerning
the supernatural or sacred. Religion is the broader term, besides
mythological system, it includes ritual. A given mythology is
almost always associated with a certain religion such as Greek
mythology with Ancient Greek religion. Disconnected from its
religious system, a myth may lose its immediate relevance to
the community and evolve—away from sacred importance—into
a legend or folktale.
Historical Religions can be traced back in history to actual
people, places and events which are documented in history and
archeology. Information about the teachings and life situation of
Jesus, Mohammed, Moses, The Jewish Prophets can be found in
historical records.
Religious Theory Philosophy( Ethics based on a Religious
teaching) Religious philosophy is philosophical thinking that is
inspired and directed by a particular religion. It can be done
objectively, but may also be done as a persuasion tool by
believers in that faith.It guides a personson's action and choices
based on religious teachings.
A. Mythology and legends as the basis of truth in the ancient
world (watch the video The Gallery of the Gods)
Zeus: the King of the Greek Gods
Hera: the Queen of the Greek Gods married to Zeus
Predestination: Ancient Greek religion taught that human lives
were at the mercy of fate which is determined by the Gods)
People were subject to their destiny with no chance to change
their lives
Socrates (the Father of Classical Philosophy )
At the time of Sacrates, Ehics were based upon Greek
Mythology Religion
A. The great question of Socrates? Can I know GOOD apart
from GOD/RELIGION
B. The Great Statement of Socrates : The Unexamined Life is
not Worth Living
THis semester we will be analyzing Ethical Questions from two
opposing philosophical positions
A. Judeo-ChristianTradition
Teaches that there is an Objective Truthrevealed by God to
human beings on how to live a good life. It is contained in the
teachings of the Old and New Testament)
B. Secular Humanism
everything is subjective it teaches that there No God and that
human beings have no spiritual nature. They are just a physical
body. Human beings create their own ideas of right and wrong
subject to their own will. Human beings become their own
God.)
What is Revelation
The word “revelation” comes from the word “reveal.”
Revelation is “something that is revealed.” Biblically, the word
“revelation” refers to something revealed by a spiritual source,
which may be God, the Lord Jesus Christ. The “book of
Revelation” is so called because its contents were revealed by
God to Jesus, who revealed it to an angel, who revealed it to the
Apostle John (Rev. 1:1). For Christians it is the teachings in the
Old and New Testaments . For Jews it teachings in the Old
testament
What is the Covenant in Judaeo Christian Tradition?
Covenant. Literally, a contract. In the Bible (see also Bible), an
agreement between God and his people, in which God makes
promises to his people and, usually, requires certain conduct
from them. In the Old Testament, God made agreements with
Noah, Abraham, and Moses.
What are the Ten Commandments
Also known as the Decalogue, the Ten Commandments come
from the Old Testament of the Bible, where they are revealed to
Moses on Mt. Sinai and carved into two stone tablets. The
commandments are mentioned as laws in Exodus 24:12-13 and
named as the Ten Commandments in Exodus 34:28. The phrase
appears in English as early as 1280. The seminal 1611 King
James Version of the Bible renders the commandments in the
now familiar and widely quoted Thou shalt not formula and are
summarized as follows:
1. Thou shalt have no other gods before me.
2. Thou shalt not make unto thee any graven image.
3. Thou shalt not take the name of the Lord thy God in vain.
4. Remember the sabbath day, to keep it holy.
5. Honour thy father and thy mother
6. Thou shalt not kill.
7. Thou shalt not commit adultery.
8. Thou shalt not steal.
9. Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour.
10. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor’s house (wife, servants,
and animals).
Forming the basis of Judeo-Christian morality and
ethics, theTen Commandments are widely taught, memorized,
cited, and displayed by Jews and Christians, referenced in
everything from Sunday School to bumper stickers.
Judeo-Christian( definition) In this philosophy GOD is GOD
and reveals right and wrong action in His Commandmen ts it is
a term that groups Judaism and Christianity, either in reference
to Christianity's derivation from Judaism, both religions'
common use of the Bible, or due to perceived parallels or
commonalities shared values between those two religions, which
has become part of the development of laws and civilization
of Western culture in Europe and the Americas
The term became prevalent towards the middle of the 20th
century in the United States to link broader principles of Judeo-
Christian ethics such as the dignity of human life, adherence to
the Abrahamic covenant, common decency, and support of
traditional family values.[1]
The concept of "Judeo-Christian values" in an ethical (rather
than theological or liturgical) sense was used by George
Orwell in 1939, with the phrase "the Judaeo-Christian scheme
of morals."[2] It has become part of the American civil
religion since the 1940s.
Secular Humanism (definition) In this form of philosophy MAN
IS HIS OWN GOD
Secular humanism, or simply humanism, is a philosophy or life
stance that embraces human reason, ethics, and philosophical
naturalism while specifically rejecting religious dogma,
supernaturalism, pseudoscience, and superstition as the basis of
morality and decision making.
Belief in Deity
Not considered important. Most Humanists are atheists or
agnostics.
•Incarnations
Same as above.
•Origin of Universe and Life
The scientific method is most respected as the means for
revealing the mysteries of the origins of the universe and life.
•After Death
An afterlife or spiritual existence after death is not recognized.
•Why Evil?
No concept of “evil.” Reasons for wrongdoing are explored
through scientific methods, e.g. through study of sociology,
psychology, criminology.
•Salvation
No concept of afterlife or spiritual liberation or salvation.
Realizing ones personal potential and working for the
betterment of humanity through ethical consciousness and social
works are considered paramount, but from a naturalistic rather
than supernatural standpoint.
•Undeserved Suffering
No spiritual reasons but rather a matter of human vulnerability
to misfortune, illness, and victimization.
•Contemporary Issues
The American Humanist Association endorses elective abortion.
Other contemporary views include working for equality for
homosexuals, gender equality, a secular approach to divorce and
remarriage, working to end poverty, promoting peace and
nonviolence, and environmental protection.
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Introductory Philosophical Terms and Concepts in Ethics
Philosophy The study of the Love of Wisdom from the past
used in the present
Ethics the study of morality what is considered "good" and
"bad" right and wrong human conduct and behavior
Moral what is considered good or right. Should be
characterized by pleasure, happiness and harmony in one's life
Immoral what is considered bad or wrong characterized by
unhappiness and disharmony in one's life
Amoral A person having no moral sense or being indifferent to
right and wrong actions. Survival of self the only value.
Sometimes the result of physical/psychological imbalance in the
brain.
Nonmoral usually involves objects and their use. Involves
objects and how they are used to give them a moral quality
For example, A Gun or Knife if used to hunt food for family it
is a GOOD, if used to kill neighbor in an argument it is BAD
Four Aspects of Morality
Religious Morality concerned with human beings in relationship
to a supernatural being
Morality and Nature human beings in relationship and respectful
of the natural world of God's creation
Individual Morality human beings in relation to themselves, self
respect important value
Social Morality human beings in relation to other human beings,
a social consciousness is a value
Morality is Objective moral laws are revealed by a divine being
to human beings thus must be followed as written
Morality is Subjective human beings create their own moral
laws
Customary/Traditional Morality moral laws are based on
inherited custom and tradition often accepted without thought or
reflection. A person is born into a religion in one's family and
identifies with it even though they may not practice the
religion.
Reflective Morality critical evaluation of all moral issues
whether or not they are based on religion, custom or tradition
Morality and the Law what is legal may not always be moral.
Legal means I may do something without fear of punishment.
Moral asks the question: Should I do this action??
Morality and Religion/The Question of Truth human beings
believe that their religion teaches them the truth about right and
wrong actions and choices.
Revelation God reveals his will for good and bad in the Old and
New Testament Example: Ten Commandments
Covenant A Free Will agreement between God and and the
individual person to accept Revelation(the teachings in the
Bible) as a rule for life's ethical choicesYouTube Videos
https://youtu.be/nRG-rV8hhpU
https://youtu.be/GmHAdgDkcCw
https://youtu.be/3_t4obUc51A
https://youtu.be/J7hQempjqpQ
https://youtu.be/ytdMUQNaBG0
YouTube Videos 2
https://youtu.be/-WgPp6xvRZs
https://youtu.be/Ut-UOhY0s8E
https://youtu.be/dFVcdcLX1zk
https://slideplayer.com/slide/10599268/
Discussion Board #1 Secular Humanism vs Judeo Christian
Tradition
Part I What did you learn from Week I ideas on development of
Philosophy material? ( at least one full paragraph)
Part II Today we will also be reflecting on different Ethical
Philosophy and Ethical Language Definitions
For this Discussion Board question, I would like for you to
reflect upon the different philosophies called
Secular Humanism and Judeo Christian Tradition as discussed
in the material for Module One November 2, 2021
Watch the videos and examine carefully their
definitions.Compare both of them and what they teach as moral.
What is your reaction to these different ways of looking at the
world?
RESPOND to ANOTHER STUDENT'S POSTING
Correlation vs Causality in Linear Regression Analysis
Chapter 6
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized
only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or
distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw -Hill
Education
Learning Objectives
Differentiate between correlation and causality in general and in
the regression environment
Calculate partial and semi partial correlation
Execute inference for correlation regression analysis
Execute passive prediction using regression analysis
Execute inference for determining functions
Execute active prediction using regression analysis
Distinguish the relevance of model fit between active and
passive prediction
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Difference Between Correlation and Causality
Yi = fi(X1i, X2i, …, XKi) + Ui
We define as the determining function, since it comprises the
part of the outcome that we can explicitly determine
Ui can only be inferred by solving Yi – fi(X1i, X2i, …, XKi)
Data-generating process as a framework for modeling causality
The reasoning established to measure an average treatment
effect using sample means easily maps to this framework
Easily extends into modeling causality for multi-level
treatments and multiple-treatments
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
A causal relationship between two variables clearly implies co-
movement.
If X casually impacts Y, then when X changes, we expect a
change in Y
However, variables often move together even when there is no
casual relationship between them
For example, height of two different children of ages 5 and 10.
Since both the children are growing during these ages, their
heights will generally move together. this co-movement is not
due to causality – an increase in height by one child will not
change in the height for the other.
The Difference Between Correlation and Causality
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Measurement of the co-movement between two variables in a
dataset is captured through sample covariance or correlation:
Covariance: sCov(X,Y) =
Correlation: sCorr(X,Y) =
The Difference Between Correlation and Causality
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
When there are more than two variables, e.g., Y, X1, X2, we
can also measure partial correlation between two of the
variables
Partial correlation between two variables is their correlation
after holding one or more other variables fixed
The Difference Between Correlation and Causality
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Causality implies that a change in one variable or variables
causes a change in another
Data analysis attempting to measure causality generally
involves an attempt to measure the determining function within
the data-generating process
Correlation implies that variables move together
Data analysis attempting to measure correlation is not
concerned about the data-generating process and determining
function, it uses standard statistical formulas (sample
correlation, partial correlation) to assess how variables move
together
The Difference Between Correlation and Causality
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The dataset is a cross-section of 230 grocery stores
AvgPrice = Average Price
AvgHHSize = Average Size of Households of Customers at that
Grocery Store.
Regression Analysis for Correlation
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Sales = b + m1AvgPrice + m2AvgHHSize
Solving b, m1, m2:
Sales = 1591.54 – 181.66 × AvgPrice + 128.09 × AvgHHSize
This equation provides us information about how the variables
in the equation are correlated within our sample.
Regression Analysis for Correlation
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Unconditional correlation is the standard measure of correl ation
between two variables X and Y
Corr(X,Y) =
Sx = Sample standard deviation for X and
SY = Sample standard deviation for Y
Partial correlation between X and Y is a measure of the
relationship between these two variables, holding at least one
other variable fixed
Semi-partial correlation between X and Y is a measure of the
relationship between these two variables, holding at least one
other variable fixed for only X or Y
Different Ways to Measure Correlation Between Two Variables
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
For the general regression equation: Y = b + m1X1 + …
+mKXK the solutions for m1 through mk when solving the
sample moment equations are proportional to the partial and
semi-partial correlation between Y and the respective Xs
Regression Analysis for Correlation
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Suppose we have the data for the entire population for our
grocery store data, then, we have:
Sales = B + M1AvgPrice + M2AvgHHSize
Capital letters are used to indicate that these are the intercept
and slopes for the population, rather than the sample
Solve for B, M1, and M2 by solving the sample moment
equations using the entire population of data
Regression and Population Correlation
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Regression and Population Criteria
We do not have the data for the entire population, but for a
sample dataset for the population whose regression line is:
Sales = b + m1AvgPrice + m2AvgHHSi ze
Solve for b, m1 and m2
The intercept and slope(s) of the regression equation describing
a sample are estimators for the intercept and slope(s) of the
corresponding regression equation describing the population.
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Consistent estimator is an estimator whose realized value gets
close to its corresponding population parameter as the sample
size gets large.
Regression and Population Correlation
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Regression Line for Full Population
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Regression Lines for Three Samples of Size 10
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Regression Lines for Three Samples of Size 30
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
In order to conduct hypothesis testing or building confidence
intervals for the population parameters of a regression equation,
we need to know the distribution of the estimators
Each estimator becomes very close to its corresponding
population parameters for a large sample
For a large sample, these estimators are normally distributed
Confidence Interval and Hypothesis Testing for the Population
Parameters
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
A large random sample implies that:
b~N(B,σB)
m1~N(M1,σm1)
mk~N(MK,σmk)
If we write each element in the population as:
Yi = B + M1X1i + … + MKXK + Ei
, where Ei is the residual, then Var(Y|X) is equal to Var(E|X)
Common assumption that this variance is constant across all
values of X , so Var(Y|X) = Var(E|X) = Var(E) = σ2
This consistency of variance is called homoscedasticity
Confidence Interval and Hypothesis Testing for the Population
Parameters
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Sales = 1591.54 – 181.66 × AvgPrice + 128.09 × AvgHHSize
If Store A has an average price of $0.50 higher than Store B,
and Store A has an average household size that is 0.40 less than
Store B, then:
= -181.66 × 0.50 + 128.09 × (-0.4) = -142
We predict Store A has 143 fewer sales than Store B
When using correlational regression analysis to make
predictions, we must be considering a population that spans
across time and we assume that the population regression
equation best describes the future population
Prediction Using Regression
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Regression and Causation
Data-generating process of an outcome Y can be written as:
Yi = fi(X1i, X2i, …, XKi) + Ui
We assume the determining function can be written as:
fi(X1i, X2i, …, XKi) = α + β1X1i + β2X2i +… βKXKi
Combining these assumptions into a single assumption, the
data-generating process can be written as:
Yi = α + β1X1i + β2X2i +… βKXKi + Ui
Error term represents unobserved factors that determine the
outcome
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Regression and Causation
Yi = B + M1X1i + … +MKXK + Ei (Correlation model)
Yi = α + β1X1i + … βKXKi + Ui (Causality model)
Correlational model residuals (Ei) have a mean of zero and are
uncorrelated with each of Xs. For this model, we simply plot
all the data points in the population and write each observation
in terms of equation that best describes these points.
For the causality model, the data-generating process is the
process that actually generating the data we observe and
determining function need not be the equation that best describe
the data.
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
CONSIDERING THESE DATA FOR Y, X, AND U ARE FOR
THE ENTIRE POPULATION:
THESE DATA WERE GENERATED USING THE DATA-
GENERATING PROCESS: Yi = 5 + 3.2Xi + Ui
MEANING WE HAVE A DETERMING
FUNCTION : f(X) = 5 + 3.2X
The Difference Between the Correlation Model and the
Causality Model: An Example
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Scatterplot, Regression Line, and Determining Function of X
and Y
IN THIS FIGURE, WE PLOT Y AND X ALONG WITH THE
DETERMING FUNCTION (BLUE LINE) AND THE
POPULATION REGRESSION EQUATION (RED LINE).
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Regression and Causation
The correlation model describes the data best but need not
coincide with the causal mechanism generating the data
The causality model provides the casual mechanism but need
not describe the data best
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Relevance of Model Fit for Passive and Active Prediction
Total sum of squares (TSS): The sum of the squared difference
between each observation of Y and the average value of Yi
TSS = Yi – )2
Sum of squared residuals (SSRes): The sum of the squared
residuals.
SSRes = i
R-squared: The fraction of the total variance in Y that can be
attributed to variation in the Xs
R2 = 1 – SSRes/TSS
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Relevance of Model Fit for Passive and Active Prediction
A high R-squared implies a good fit, meaning the points on the
regression equation tend to be close to the actual Y values
R-squared for passive prediction (correlation) : Finding a high
R-squared implies the prediction is close to reality
R-squared for active prediction (causality): R-squared is not a
primary consideration when evaluating predictions
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Linear Regression as a Fundamental Descriptive Tool
Chapter 5
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized
only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or
distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw -Hill
Education
Learning Objectives
Construct a regression line for a dichotomous treatment
Construct a regression line for a multi-level treatment
Explain both intuitively and formerly the formulas generating a
regression line for a single treatment
Distinguish the use of sample moment equations from
estimation via least squares
Distinguish regression equations for single and multiple
treatments
Describe a dataset with multiple treatments using multiple
regression
Explain the difference between linear regression and a
regression line
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Scatterplot of Price and Sales
How do we summarize the relationship between these two
variables?
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment
Dichotomous treatment
Two treatment statuses—treated and untreated
Regression analysis
The process of using a function to describe the relationship
among variables
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment : An
Intuitive Approach

Draw a line through these data that will best describe the
relationship between Price and Treatment
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment: An Intuitive
Approach
In general, the formula for a line is: Y = f(X) = b + mX,
where b is the intercept and m is the slope of the line
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Line Describing the Relationship Between Profits and
Treatment
What is the equation for the line shown here?
Profits = 208.33 – 20 × Treatment
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Line Describing the Relationship Between Profits and Price
Knowing the two point on the Profits/Price line, solve for slope
and intercept
Profits = 248.33 – 40 × Price
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment
Whenever there is a dichotomous treatment, a line can be built
describing the relationship between the treatment and outcome
by using the means for each treatment status called the
regression line for a dichotomous treatment
Set f(0) = and f(1)
The equation for the line is:
Outcome = +
(- ) × Treatment
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment: A Formal
Approach
Observed outcomes in terms of two points on a line
Profiti = f(1.00) + ei if Pricei = 1.00
Profiti = f(1.50) + ei if Pricei = 1.50
i delineates between different observations, (i
ei is the residual for the observation i.
The residual is the difference between the observed outcome
and the corresponding point on the regression line for a given
observation
ei = Yi – f(xi)
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Scatterplot of Residuals for Price of $1.00 when f(1.00) = $220
FIRST RESIDUAL IS 20. THIS MEANS THE ACTUAL
PROFIT WE OBSERVE (240) IS 20 HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE OBSERVE (220).
SECOND RESIDUAL IS -20. THIS MEANS THE ACTUAL
PROFIT WE OBSERVE (200) IS 20 HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE OBSERVE (220).
THIRD RESIDUAL IS -35. THIS MEANS THE ACTUAL
PROFIT WE OBSERVE (240) IS 20 HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE OBSERVE (185).
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment: A Formal
Approach
Residuals for price of $1.00 when f(1.00) = $220
The average residual is [20 + (-20) + (-35)]/3 = -11.67
A choice for f(1.00) is best if it tends to neither overshoot nor
undershoot the observed outcomes. That means, a choice for
f(1.00) is best if the corresponding residuals are on average,
zero.
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment: A Formal
Approach
For the residuals to average zero means:
THE RESIDUALS TO AVERAGE ZERO, BEST CHOICE FOR
f(1.00):
Similarly, when price is $1.50, the best choice is the average of
profits when the price is $1.50 = (205 + 170 + 190)/3 = 188.33
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: An Intuitive
Approach
Multi-level treatment is a treatment that can be administered in
more than one quantity
HERE, PRICES ARE, $1.00, $1.50, $2.00. PRICE OF $1.00 IS
UNTREATED AND A $0.50 PRICE INCREASE IS THE
TREATMENT.
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: An Intuitive
Approach
The approach we used for the dichotomous treatment generally
does not work for a multi-level treatment
The problem is that when three or more points are plotted on a
graph, it is generally the case that they might not fall on the
same line
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: An Intuitive
Approach
Line attempting to connect average profits to the following
price levels:
f(1.00) = 208.33
f(1.50) = 188.33
f(2.00) = 160
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: An Intuitive
Approach
Using the average outcome to plot the points for each treatment
level generally will result in not being able to connect three
points on a single line when there more than two treatment
levels
f(1.00) = b + m × 1.00 208.33 = b + m × 1.00
f(1.50) = b + m × 1.50 188.33 = b + m × 1.50
f(2.00) = b + m × 2.00 160 = b + m × 2.00
We cannot solve for m and b as there are three equations to
solve but only two unknowns
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: An Intuitive
Approach
Rather than plot an “ideal” point for each treatment level and
then solve for the corresponding slope and intercept, try to
directly solve for the slope and intercept of the line believed to
best describe the describes the data
It should not generally overshoot or undershoot the data
Its tendency to over or undershoot the data across specific price
levels should not depend on the price level
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Two Candidate Lines for Describing Profits and Price Data
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal
Approach
For our example, we have three levels and nine points.
Expressing them in terms of intercept and slope:
Profiti = b + m × 1.00 + ei, if Pricei = 1.00
Profiti = b + m × 1.50 + ei, if Pricei = 1.50
Profiti = b + m × 2.00 + ei, if Pricei = 2.00
Here i takes on the values one through nine, since there are nine
points. Residuals, ei, are the difference between the observed
profit and the corresponding point on the line for a given
observation.
Ei = Profiti – b – m × Pricei
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal
Approach
Applying the same approach used for a dichotomous treatment,
solve for the “best” line by finding a slope and intercept that
makes the residuals average zero for each price point.
THIS AGAIN GIVES US THREE EQUATIONS AND TWO
UNKNOWNS.
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal
Approach
Alternative way of defining what makes a line the best to
describe the data. Criteria includes:
It should not generally overshoot or undershoot the data
Its tendency to over or undershoot the data across specific price
levels should not depend on the price level
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal
Approach
Translating these criteria in terms of residuals:
The residuals for all data points average to zero
The size of the residuals is not correlated with the treatment
level
Expressing these two criteria in equation form:
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal
Approach
The first equation ensures that the residual average zero across
all observations, and the second equation ensures that the size
of the residuals is not related to Price level
Solving these two equations yields:
m = -48.33
b = 258.06
The line that best fits the data, where “best” implies residuals
that average zero and are not correlated with the treatment:
Profit = 258.06 – 48.33 × Price
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal
Approach
Simple regression line
The slope is the sample covariance of the treatment and
outcome divided by the sample variance of the treatment
The intercept is the mean value of the outcome minus the slope
times the mean value of the treatment
Y = b + mX
Solving for m and b yields the following formulas for the slope
and intercept of a simple regression line:
m =
b = – m
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal
Approach
Applying these generalized formulas for our dichotomo us
price/profit example:
USING THE FORMULAS FOR VARIANCE AND
COVRIANCE:
sCov (Profit, Price) = -3,
sVar (Price) = 0.075,
= 1.25 and = 198.33
Plugging these into our formulas,
m = -3/0.075 = -40, and
b = 198.33 – (-40)1.25= 248.33.
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Sample Moments and Least Squares
Sample moment
The mean of a function of a random variable(s) for a given
sample
For example, for a sample size 20 that contains information on
salaries, is a sample moment, where Salaryi is the random
variable and the function is defined as f(a) = a3
Ordinary least squares
The process of solving for the slope and intercept that minimize
the sum of the squared residuals
Minb,m =Yi – b – mXi)2
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Sample Moments and Least Square
Objective function
A function ultimately wished to be maximized or minimized
For ordinary least squares, the objective function is the sum of
squared residuals ()
Least absolute deviations (LAD)
Use the sum of the absolute value of the residuals as the
objective function and solve for the slope and intercept that
minimize it
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Ordinary Least Square vs Least Absolute Deviation for
Describing a Dataset
LINE A IS CLOSER TO THE OUTLIER, SO IT IS COMING
FROM OLS AND LINE B IS COMING FROM LAD.
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Regression for Multiple Treatments
CHOLESTEROL LEVEL AND DRUG DOSES FOR 15
INDIVIDUALS.
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Regression for Multiple Treatments
Single vs. Multiple Treatments
Cholesterol = 235.17 – 0.997 × Drug A
Cholesterol = 205.83 – 0.107 × Drug B
Cholesterol outcome as follows:
Cholesteroli = b + m1DrugAi + m2DrugBi + ei
Expressing the OLS criteria in equation form:
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Regression Output in Excel for Cholesterol Regressed on Drug
A and Drug B
HERE WE HAVE THE VALUES FOR:
b = 256.20,
m1 = -1.259, AND
m2 = -0.514.
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Regression Plane for Cholesterol Regressed on Drug A and
Drug B
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Multiple regression
Solving for a function that best describes the data the implies
the use of OLS (or equivalently, the sample moment equations)
Single regression the process that produces the simple
regression line for a single treatment
Multiple Regression
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
Multiple Regression
For a sample size of N with K treatments, the associated
equations are:
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
What Makes Regression Linear?
Linear regression is the process of fitting a function that is
linear in its parameters to a given dataset
Y = b + m1X1 + m2X2 + … + mKXK
Here {b, m1, …, mK} are the parameters for this function
The use of linear regression does not at all imply construction
of a line to fit the data
Linear regression is linear in the parameters but not necessarily
the treatment(s)
It allows for an unlimited number of possible “shapes” for the
relationship between the outcome and any particular treatment
‹#›
© 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.

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Introduction the Development of PhilosophySocrates ( the unexam

  • 1. Introduction the Development of Philosophy Socrates ( "the unexamined life is not worth living" Demonstrate knowledge on: What is Philosophy? The noun philosophy means the study of proper behavior, and the search for wisdom. The original meaning of the word philosophy comes from the Greek roots philo- meaning "love" and -sophos, or "wisdom." ... In other words, they want to know the meaning of life. Watch Video: What is Philosophy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRG-rV8hhpU What is Ethics? Ethics or moral philosophy is a branch of philosophy that involves systematizing, defending, and recommending concepts of right and wrong conduct. ... Ethics seeks to resolve questions of human morality by defining concepts such as good and evil, right and wrong, virtue and vice, justice and crime. View Video: What is Ethics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_t4obUc51A 4,200 religions According to some estimates, there are roughly 4,200 religions in the world. The word religion is sometimes used interchangeably with "faith" or "belief system", but religion differs from private belief in that it has a public aspect. List of Religions and Spiritual Traditions - https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › List_of_religions_and_spiritual_traditions Forms of Religious Belief : Monotheism, Atheism, Polytheism, Agnostic A. Monotheism The term monotheism comes from the
  • 2. Greek monos, (one) and theos (god). Thus, monotheism is the belief in the existence of a single god. B. Polytheism which is a belief in many gods C. Atheism An atheist doesn't believe in a god or divine being. ... D. Agnostic an agnostic neither believes nor disbelieves in a god or religious doctrine. Agnostics assert that it's impossible for human beings to know anything about how the universe was created and if divine beings exist. They are open to the possibility of a divine being an atheist is not open to such a possibility. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Two Types of Religions/Historical and Mythological Religions Mythological Religion Mythology is the main component of Religion. It refers to systems of legends and stories and concepts that are of high importance to a certain community, making statements concerning the supernatural or sacred. Religion is the broader term, besides mythological system, it includes ritual. A given mythology is almost always associated with a certain religion such as Greek mythology with Ancient Greek religion. Disconnected from its religious system, a myth may lose its immediate relevance to the community and evolve—away from sacred importance—into a legend or folktale. Historical Religions can be traced back in history to actual people, places and events which are documented in history and archeology. Information about the teachings and life situation of Jesus, Mohammed, Moses, The Jewish Prophets can be found in historical records. Religious Theory Philosophy( Ethics based on a Religious teaching) Religious philosophy is philosophical thinking that is inspired and directed by a particular religion. It can be done objectively, but may also be done as a persuasion tool by believers in that faith.It guides a personson's action and choices based on religious teachings. A. Mythology and legends as the basis of truth in the ancient
  • 3. world (watch the video The Gallery of the Gods) Zeus: the King of the Greek Gods Hera: the Queen of the Greek Gods married to Zeus Predestination: Ancient Greek religion taught that human lives were at the mercy of fate which is determined by the Gods) People were subject to their destiny with no chance to change their lives Socrates (the Father of Classical Philosophy ) At the time of Sacrates, Ehics were based upon Greek Mythology Religion A. The great question of Socrates? Can I know GOOD apart from GOD/RELIGION B. The Great Statement of Socrates : The Unexamined Life is not Worth Living THis semester we will be analyzing Ethical Questions from two opposing philosophical positions A. Judeo-ChristianTradition Teaches that there is an Objective Truthrevealed by God to human beings on how to live a good life. It is contained in the teachings of the Old and New Testament) B. Secular Humanism everything is subjective it teaches that there No God and that human beings have no spiritual nature. They are just a physical body. Human beings create their own ideas of right and wrong subject to their own will. Human beings become their own God.) What is Revelation The word “revelation” comes from the word “reveal.” Revelation is “something that is revealed.” Biblically, the word “revelation” refers to something revealed by a spiritual source, which may be God, the Lord Jesus Christ. The “book of Revelation” is so called because its contents were revealed by God to Jesus, who revealed it to an angel, who revealed it to the Apostle John (Rev. 1:1). For Christians it is the teachings in the Old and New Testaments . For Jews it teachings in the Old testament
  • 4. What is the Covenant in Judaeo Christian Tradition? Covenant. Literally, a contract. In the Bible (see also Bible), an agreement between God and his people, in which God makes promises to his people and, usually, requires certain conduct from them. In the Old Testament, God made agreements with Noah, Abraham, and Moses. What are the Ten Commandments Also known as the Decalogue, the Ten Commandments come from the Old Testament of the Bible, where they are revealed to Moses on Mt. Sinai and carved into two stone tablets. The commandments are mentioned as laws in Exodus 24:12-13 and named as the Ten Commandments in Exodus 34:28. The phrase appears in English as early as 1280. The seminal 1611 King James Version of the Bible renders the commandments in the now familiar and widely quoted Thou shalt not formula and are summarized as follows: 1. Thou shalt have no other gods before me. 2. Thou shalt not make unto thee any graven image. 3. Thou shalt not take the name of the Lord thy God in vain. 4. Remember the sabbath day, to keep it holy. 5. Honour thy father and thy mother 6. Thou shalt not kill. 7. Thou shalt not commit adultery. 8. Thou shalt not steal. 9. Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbour. 10. Thou shalt not covet thy neighbor’s house (wife, servants, and animals). Forming the basis of Judeo-Christian morality and ethics, theTen Commandments are widely taught, memorized, cited, and displayed by Jews and Christians, referenced in everything from Sunday School to bumper stickers. Judeo-Christian( definition) In this philosophy GOD is GOD and reveals right and wrong action in His Commandmen ts it is a term that groups Judaism and Christianity, either in reference to Christianity's derivation from Judaism, both religions' common use of the Bible, or due to perceived parallels or
  • 5. commonalities shared values between those two religions, which has become part of the development of laws and civilization of Western culture in Europe and the Americas The term became prevalent towards the middle of the 20th century in the United States to link broader principles of Judeo- Christian ethics such as the dignity of human life, adherence to the Abrahamic covenant, common decency, and support of traditional family values.[1] The concept of "Judeo-Christian values" in an ethical (rather than theological or liturgical) sense was used by George Orwell in 1939, with the phrase "the Judaeo-Christian scheme of morals."[2] It has become part of the American civil religion since the 1940s. Secular Humanism (definition) In this form of philosophy MAN IS HIS OWN GOD Secular humanism, or simply humanism, is a philosophy or life stance that embraces human reason, ethics, and philosophical naturalism while specifically rejecting religious dogma, supernaturalism, pseudoscience, and superstition as the basis of morality and decision making. Belief in Deity Not considered important. Most Humanists are atheists or agnostics. •Incarnations Same as above. •Origin of Universe and Life The scientific method is most respected as the means for revealing the mysteries of the origins of the universe and life. •After Death An afterlife or spiritual existence after death is not recognized. •Why Evil? No concept of “evil.” Reasons for wrongdoing are explored
  • 6. through scientific methods, e.g. through study of sociology, psychology, criminology. •Salvation No concept of afterlife or spiritual liberation or salvation. Realizing ones personal potential and working for the betterment of humanity through ethical consciousness and social works are considered paramount, but from a naturalistic rather than supernatural standpoint. •Undeserved Suffering No spiritual reasons but rather a matter of human vulnerability to misfortune, illness, and victimization. •Contemporary Issues The American Humanist Association endorses elective abortion. Other contemporary views include working for equality for homosexuals, gender equality, a secular approach to divorce and remarriage, working to end poverty, promoting peace and nonviolence, and environmental protection. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------- Introductory Philosophical Terms and Concepts in Ethics Philosophy The study of the Love of Wisdom from the past used in the present Ethics the study of morality what is considered "good" and "bad" right and wrong human conduct and behavior Moral what is considered good or right. Should be characterized by pleasure, happiness and harmony in one's life Immoral what is considered bad or wrong characterized by unhappiness and disharmony in one's life Amoral A person having no moral sense or being indifferent to right and wrong actions. Survival of self the only value. Sometimes the result of physical/psychological imbalance in the brain.
  • 7. Nonmoral usually involves objects and their use. Involves objects and how they are used to give them a moral quality For example, A Gun or Knife if used to hunt food for family it is a GOOD, if used to kill neighbor in an argument it is BAD Four Aspects of Morality Religious Morality concerned with human beings in relationship to a supernatural being Morality and Nature human beings in relationship and respectful of the natural world of God's creation Individual Morality human beings in relation to themselves, self respect important value Social Morality human beings in relation to other human beings, a social consciousness is a value Morality is Objective moral laws are revealed by a divine being to human beings thus must be followed as written Morality is Subjective human beings create their own moral laws Customary/Traditional Morality moral laws are based on inherited custom and tradition often accepted without thought or reflection. A person is born into a religion in one's family and identifies with it even though they may not practice the religion. Reflective Morality critical evaluation of all moral issues whether or not they are based on religion, custom or tradition Morality and the Law what is legal may not always be moral. Legal means I may do something without fear of punishment. Moral asks the question: Should I do this action?? Morality and Religion/The Question of Truth human beings believe that their religion teaches them the truth about right and wrong actions and choices. Revelation God reveals his will for good and bad in the Old and New Testament Example: Ten Commandments Covenant A Free Will agreement between God and and the individual person to accept Revelation(the teachings in the Bible) as a rule for life's ethical choicesYouTube Videos https://youtu.be/nRG-rV8hhpU
  • 8. https://youtu.be/GmHAdgDkcCw https://youtu.be/3_t4obUc51A https://youtu.be/J7hQempjqpQ https://youtu.be/ytdMUQNaBG0 YouTube Videos 2 https://youtu.be/-WgPp6xvRZs https://youtu.be/Ut-UOhY0s8E https://youtu.be/dFVcdcLX1zk https://slideplayer.com/slide/10599268/ Discussion Board #1 Secular Humanism vs Judeo Christian Tradition Part I What did you learn from Week I ideas on development of Philosophy material? ( at least one full paragraph) Part II Today we will also be reflecting on different Ethical Philosophy and Ethical Language Definitions For this Discussion Board question, I would like for you to reflect upon the different philosophies called Secular Humanism and Judeo Christian Tradition as discussed in the material for Module One November 2, 2021 Watch the videos and examine carefully their definitions.Compare both of them and what they teach as moral. What is your reaction to these different ways of looking at the world? RESPOND to ANOTHER STUDENT'S POSTING Correlation vs Causality in Linear Regression Analysis Chapter 6 © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw -Hill Education
  • 9. Learning Objectives Differentiate between correlation and causality in general and in the regression environment Calculate partial and semi partial correlation Execute inference for correlation regression analysis Execute passive prediction using regression analysis Execute inference for determining functions Execute active prediction using regression analysis Distinguish the relevance of model fit between active and passive prediction ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Difference Between Correlation and Causality Yi = fi(X1i, X2i, …, XKi) + Ui We define as the determining function, since it comprises the part of the outcome that we can explicitly determine Ui can only be inferred by solving Yi – fi(X1i, X2i, …, XKi) Data-generating process as a framework for modeling causality The reasoning established to measure an average treatment effect using sample means easily maps to this framework Easily extends into modeling causality for multi-level treatments and multiple-treatments ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 10. A causal relationship between two variables clearly implies co- movement. If X casually impacts Y, then when X changes, we expect a change in Y However, variables often move together even when there is no casual relationship between them For example, height of two different children of ages 5 and 10. Since both the children are growing during these ages, their heights will generally move together. this co-movement is not due to causality – an increase in height by one child will not change in the height for the other. The Difference Between Correlation and Causality ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Measurement of the co-movement between two variables in a dataset is captured through sample covariance or correlation: Covariance: sCov(X,Y) = Correlation: sCorr(X,Y) = The Difference Between Correlation and Causality ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. When there are more than two variables, e.g., Y, X1, X2, we can also measure partial correlation between two of the variables
  • 11. Partial correlation between two variables is their correlation after holding one or more other variables fixed The Difference Between Correlation and Causality ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Causality implies that a change in one variable or variables causes a change in another Data analysis attempting to measure causality generally involves an attempt to measure the determining function within the data-generating process Correlation implies that variables move together Data analysis attempting to measure correlation is not concerned about the data-generating process and determining function, it uses standard statistical formulas (sample correlation, partial correlation) to assess how variables move together The Difference Between Correlation and Causality ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The dataset is a cross-section of 230 grocery stores AvgPrice = Average Price AvgHHSize = Average Size of Households of Customers at that Grocery Store. Regression Analysis for Correlation
  • 12. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Sales = b + m1AvgPrice + m2AvgHHSize Solving b, m1, m2: Sales = 1591.54 – 181.66 × AvgPrice + 128.09 × AvgHHSize This equation provides us information about how the variables in the equation are correlated within our sample. Regression Analysis for Correlation ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Unconditional correlation is the standard measure of correl ation between two variables X and Y Corr(X,Y) = Sx = Sample standard deviation for X and SY = Sample standard deviation for Y Partial correlation between X and Y is a measure of the relationship between these two variables, holding at least one other variable fixed Semi-partial correlation between X and Y is a measure of the relationship between these two variables, holding at least one other variable fixed for only X or Y Different Ways to Measure Correlation Between Two Variables
  • 13. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. For the general regression equation: Y = b + m1X1 + … +mKXK the solutions for m1 through mk when solving the sample moment equations are proportional to the partial and semi-partial correlation between Y and the respective Xs Regression Analysis for Correlation ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Suppose we have the data for the entire population for our grocery store data, then, we have: Sales = B + M1AvgPrice + M2AvgHHSize Capital letters are used to indicate that these are the intercept and slopes for the population, rather than the sample Solve for B, M1, and M2 by solving the sample moment equations using the entire population of data Regression and Population Correlation ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Regression and Population Criteria We do not have the data for the entire population, but for a sample dataset for the population whose regression line is: Sales = b + m1AvgPrice + m2AvgHHSi ze Solve for b, m1 and m2
  • 14. The intercept and slope(s) of the regression equation describing a sample are estimators for the intercept and slope(s) of the corresponding regression equation describing the population. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Consistent estimator is an estimator whose realized value gets close to its corresponding population parameter as the sample size gets large. Regression and Population Correlation ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Regression Line for Full Population ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Regression Lines for Three Samples of Size 10 ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education.
  • 15. Regression Lines for Three Samples of Size 30 ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. In order to conduct hypothesis testing or building confidence intervals for the population parameters of a regression equation, we need to know the distribution of the estimators Each estimator becomes very close to its corresponding population parameters for a large sample For a large sample, these estimators are normally distributed Confidence Interval and Hypothesis Testing for the Population Parameters ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. A large random sample implies that: b~N(B,σB) m1~N(M1,σm1) mk~N(MK,σmk) If we write each element in the population as: Yi = B + M1X1i + … + MKXK + Ei , where Ei is the residual, then Var(Y|X) is equal to Var(E|X) Common assumption that this variance is constant across all values of X , so Var(Y|X) = Var(E|X) = Var(E) = σ2 This consistency of variance is called homoscedasticity Confidence Interval and Hypothesis Testing for the Population Parameters
  • 16. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Sales = 1591.54 – 181.66 × AvgPrice + 128.09 × AvgHHSize If Store A has an average price of $0.50 higher than Store B, and Store A has an average household size that is 0.40 less than Store B, then: = -181.66 × 0.50 + 128.09 × (-0.4) = -142 We predict Store A has 143 fewer sales than Store B When using correlational regression analysis to make predictions, we must be considering a population that spans across time and we assume that the population regression equation best describes the future population Prediction Using Regression ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Regression and Causation Data-generating process of an outcome Y can be written as: Yi = fi(X1i, X2i, …, XKi) + Ui We assume the determining function can be written as: fi(X1i, X2i, …, XKi) = α + β1X1i + β2X2i +… βKXKi Combining these assumptions into a single assumption, the data-generating process can be written as: Yi = α + β1X1i + β2X2i +… βKXKi + Ui Error term represents unobserved factors that determine the outcome
  • 17. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Regression and Causation Yi = B + M1X1i + … +MKXK + Ei (Correlation model) Yi = α + β1X1i + … βKXKi + Ui (Causality model) Correlational model residuals (Ei) have a mean of zero and are uncorrelated with each of Xs. For this model, we simply plot all the data points in the population and write each observation in terms of equation that best describes these points. For the causality model, the data-generating process is the process that actually generating the data we observe and determining function need not be the equation that best describe the data. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. CONSIDERING THESE DATA FOR Y, X, AND U ARE FOR THE ENTIRE POPULATION: THESE DATA WERE GENERATED USING THE DATA- GENERATING PROCESS: Yi = 5 + 3.2Xi + Ui MEANING WE HAVE A DETERMING FUNCTION : f(X) = 5 + 3.2X The Difference Between the Correlation Model and the Causality Model: An Example
  • 18. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Scatterplot, Regression Line, and Determining Function of X and Y IN THIS FIGURE, WE PLOT Y AND X ALONG WITH THE DETERMING FUNCTION (BLUE LINE) AND THE POPULATION REGRESSION EQUATION (RED LINE). ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Regression and Causation The correlation model describes the data best but need not coincide with the causal mechanism generating the data The causality model provides the casual mechanism but need not describe the data best ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Relevance of Model Fit for Passive and Active Prediction Total sum of squares (TSS): The sum of the squared difference between each observation of Y and the average value of Yi TSS = Yi – )2 Sum of squared residuals (SSRes): The sum of the squared residuals. SSRes = i
  • 19. R-squared: The fraction of the total variance in Y that can be attributed to variation in the Xs R2 = 1 – SSRes/TSS ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Relevance of Model Fit for Passive and Active Prediction A high R-squared implies a good fit, meaning the points on the regression equation tend to be close to the actual Y values R-squared for passive prediction (correlation) : Finding a high R-squared implies the prediction is close to reality R-squared for active prediction (causality): R-squared is not a primary consideration when evaluating predictions ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Linear Regression as a Fundamental Descriptive Tool Chapter 5 © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. Authorized only for instructor use in the classroom. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw -Hill Education Learning Objectives
  • 20. Construct a regression line for a dichotomous treatment Construct a regression line for a multi-level treatment Explain both intuitively and formerly the formulas generating a regression line for a single treatment Distinguish the use of sample moment equations from estimation via least squares Distinguish regression equations for single and multiple treatments Describe a dataset with multiple treatments using multiple regression Explain the difference between linear regression and a regression line ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Scatterplot of Price and Sales How do we summarize the relationship between these two variables? ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment Dichotomous treatment Two treatment statuses—treated and untreated Regression analysis The process of using a function to describe the relationship among variables
  • 21. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment : An Intuitive Approach Draw a line through these data that will best describe the relationship between Price and Treatment ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment: An Intuitive Approach In general, the formula for a line is: Y = f(X) = b + mX, where b is the intercept and m is the slope of the line ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Line Describing the Relationship Between Profits and Treatment
  • 22. What is the equation for the line shown here? Profits = 208.33 – 20 × Treatment ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Line Describing the Relationship Between Profits and Price Knowing the two point on the Profits/Price line, solve for slope and intercept Profits = 248.33 – 40 × Price ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment Whenever there is a dichotomous treatment, a line can be built describing the relationship between the treatment and outcome by using the means for each treatment status called the
  • 23. regression line for a dichotomous treatment Set f(0) = and f(1) The equation for the line is: Outcome = + (- ) × Treatment ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment: A Formal Approach Observed outcomes in terms of two points on a line Profiti = f(1.00) + ei if Pricei = 1.00 Profiti = f(1.50) + ei if Pricei = 1.50 i delineates between different observations, (i ei is the residual for the observation i. The residual is the difference between the observed outcome and the corresponding point on the regression line for a given observation ei = Yi – f(xi) ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Scatterplot of Residuals for Price of $1.00 when f(1.00) = $220 FIRST RESIDUAL IS 20. THIS MEANS THE ACTUAL PROFIT WE OBSERVE (240) IS 20 HIGHER THAN WHAT WE OBSERVE (220).
  • 24. SECOND RESIDUAL IS -20. THIS MEANS THE ACTUAL PROFIT WE OBSERVE (200) IS 20 HIGHER THAN WHAT WE OBSERVE (220). THIRD RESIDUAL IS -35. THIS MEANS THE ACTUAL PROFIT WE OBSERVE (240) IS 20 HIGHER THAN WHAT WE OBSERVE (185). ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment: A Formal Approach Residuals for price of $1.00 when f(1.00) = $220 The average residual is [20 + (-20) + (-35)]/3 = -11.67 A choice for f(1.00) is best if it tends to neither overshoot nor undershoot the observed outcomes. That means, a choice for f(1.00) is best if the corresponding residuals are on average, zero. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Dichotomous Treatment: A Formal
  • 25. Approach For the residuals to average zero means: THE RESIDUALS TO AVERAGE ZERO, BEST CHOICE FOR f(1.00): Similarly, when price is $1.50, the best choice is the average of profits when the price is $1.50 = (205 + 170 + 190)/3 = 188.33 ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: An Intuitive Approach Multi-level treatment is a treatment that can be administered in more than one quantity HERE, PRICES ARE, $1.00, $1.50, $2.00. PRICE OF $1.00 IS UNTREATED AND A $0.50 PRICE INCREASE IS THE TREATMENT. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: An Intuitive Approach The approach we used for the dichotomous treatment generally does not work for a multi-level treatment The problem is that when three or more points are plotted on a graph, it is generally the case that they might not fall on the
  • 26. same line ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: An Intuitive Approach Line attempting to connect average profits to the following price levels: f(1.00) = 208.33 f(1.50) = 188.33 f(2.00) = 160 ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: An Intuitive Approach Using the average outcome to plot the points for each treatment level generally will result in not being able to connect three points on a single line when there more than two treatment levels f(1.00) = b + m × 1.00 208.33 = b + m × 1.00 f(1.50) = b + m × 1.50 188.33 = b + m × 1.50 f(2.00) = b + m × 2.00 160 = b + m × 2.00 We cannot solve for m and b as there are three equations to solve but only two unknowns
  • 27. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: An Intuitive Approach Rather than plot an “ideal” point for each treatment level and then solve for the corresponding slope and intercept, try to directly solve for the slope and intercept of the line believed to best describe the describes the data It should not generally overshoot or undershoot the data Its tendency to over or undershoot the data across specific price levels should not depend on the price level ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Two Candidate Lines for Describing Profits and Price Data ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal Approach For our example, we have three levels and nine points.
  • 28. Expressing them in terms of intercept and slope: Profiti = b + m × 1.00 + ei, if Pricei = 1.00 Profiti = b + m × 1.50 + ei, if Pricei = 1.50 Profiti = b + m × 2.00 + ei, if Pricei = 2.00 Here i takes on the values one through nine, since there are nine points. Residuals, ei, are the difference between the observed profit and the corresponding point on the line for a given observation. Ei = Profiti – b – m × Pricei ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal Approach Applying the same approach used for a dichotomous treatment, solve for the “best” line by finding a slope and intercept that makes the residuals average zero for each price point. THIS AGAIN GIVES US THREE EQUATIONS AND TWO UNKNOWNS. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal Approach Alternative way of defining what makes a line the best to describe the data. Criteria includes:
  • 29. It should not generally overshoot or undershoot the data Its tendency to over or undershoot the data across specific price levels should not depend on the price level ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal Approach Translating these criteria in terms of residuals: The residuals for all data points average to zero The size of the residuals is not correlated with the treatment level Expressing these two criteria in equation form: ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal Approach The first equation ensures that the residual average zero across all observations, and the second equation ensures that the size of the residuals is not related to Price level Solving these two equations yields: m = -48.33 b = 258.06 The line that best fits the data, where “best” implies residuals that average zero and are not correlated with the treatment: Profit = 258.06 – 48.33 × Price
  • 30. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal Approach Simple regression line The slope is the sample covariance of the treatment and outcome divided by the sample variance of the treatment The intercept is the mean value of the outcome minus the slope times the mean value of the treatment Y = b + mX Solving for m and b yields the following formulas for the slope and intercept of a simple regression line: m = b = – m ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. The Regression Line for a Multi-Level Treatment: A Formal Approach Applying these generalized formulas for our dichotomo us price/profit example: USING THE FORMULAS FOR VARIANCE AND COVRIANCE:
  • 31. sCov (Profit, Price) = -3, sVar (Price) = 0.075, = 1.25 and = 198.33 Plugging these into our formulas, m = -3/0.075 = -40, and b = 198.33 – (-40)1.25= 248.33. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Sample Moments and Least Squares Sample moment The mean of a function of a random variable(s) for a given sample For example, for a sample size 20 that contains information on salaries, is a sample moment, where Salaryi is the random variable and the function is defined as f(a) = a3 Ordinary least squares The process of solving for the slope and intercept that minimize the sum of the squared residuals Minb,m =Yi – b – mXi)2 ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Sample Moments and Least Square Objective function A function ultimately wished to be maximized or minimized For ordinary least squares, the objective function is the sum of
  • 32. squared residuals () Least absolute deviations (LAD) Use the sum of the absolute value of the residuals as the objective function and solve for the slope and intercept that minimize it ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Ordinary Least Square vs Least Absolute Deviation for Describing a Dataset LINE A IS CLOSER TO THE OUTLIER, SO IT IS COMING FROM OLS AND LINE B IS COMING FROM LAD. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Regression for Multiple Treatments CHOLESTEROL LEVEL AND DRUG DOSES FOR 15 INDIVIDUALS. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Regression for Multiple Treatments Single vs. Multiple Treatments Cholesterol = 235.17 – 0.997 × Drug A Cholesterol = 205.83 – 0.107 × Drug B
  • 33. Cholesterol outcome as follows: Cholesteroli = b + m1DrugAi + m2DrugBi + ei Expressing the OLS criteria in equation form: ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Regression Output in Excel for Cholesterol Regressed on Drug A and Drug B HERE WE HAVE THE VALUES FOR: b = 256.20, m1 = -1.259, AND m2 = -0.514. ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Regression Plane for Cholesterol Regressed on Drug A and Drug B ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Multiple regression Solving for a function that best describes the data the implies
  • 34. the use of OLS (or equivalently, the sample moment equations) Single regression the process that produces the simple regression line for a single treatment Multiple Regression ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. Multiple Regression For a sample size of N with K treatments, the associated equations are: ‹#› © 2019 McGraw-Hill Education. What Makes Regression Linear? Linear regression is the process of fitting a function that is linear in its parameters to a given dataset Y = b + m1X1 + m2X2 + … + mKXK Here {b, m1, …, mK} are the parameters for this function The use of linear regression does not at all imply construction of a line to fit the data Linear regression is linear in the parameters but not necessarily the treatment(s) It allows for an unlimited number of possible “shapes” for the relationship between the outcome and any particular treatment