2. h4ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn64Vf6GEoo
Addressing the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: "We need to
take a new solid step to fight black money. From now on, Rs 500 and Rs
1000 notes will not be used. Have 50 days to turn them into banks and post
offices."
3. Meaning • Demone&za&on is the act of stripping a currency unit of its status as legal
tender. Demone&za&on is necessary whenever there is a change of na&onal
currency. The old unit of currency must be re&red and replaced with a new
currency unit.
• A recent example of demone&za&on occurred when the na&ons of the
European Monetary Union adopted the euro. In order to switch to the euro,
authori&es first fixed exchange rates for the varied na&onal currencies into
euros. When the € was introduced, the old na&onal currencies were
demone&zed. However, the old currencies remained conver&ble into euros
for a while so that a smooth transi&on through demone&za&on would be
assured.
• The case of break-up of USSR and end of ruble zone is an alterna&ve case of
demone&za&on. in 1993, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) unilaterally
demone&zed soviet era ruble notes and exchanged them for Russian rubles.
The ruble zone was effec&vely terminated and the remaining 9 ruble zone
countries (some countries had le_ even earlier) were forced to adopt their
own currencies. Ul&mately, the ruble zone broke up because Russia (or more
precisely CBR) was not prepared to pay the economic price required for its
con&nua&on.
• Even a_er winning the war of independence, Bangladesh retained the old
currency for several months. The statute seang up the Bank of
Bangladesh stated that “all Bank Notes, Coins and Currency Notes … which
were in circula&on in Bangladesh [on December 16, 1971] shall con&nue to
be legal tender”. Subsequently, Bangladesh printed new currency and
exchanged the old notes.
• The context and coverage of Indian Demone&za&on 2016 is different.
8. RK Laxman's Cartoon when
demonetization was tried back in 1978
The cartoon is made in the context of 1978, when the largest
denominations formed a very little part of the overall economy, we can
never really be sure of the moves taken by the government.
12. Factors Leading Genera&on of Black Money
• Black money arising from illegal ac&vi&es such as crime and corrup&on has an underlying
an&social element. The ‘criminal’ component of black money may include proceeds from
a range of ac&vi&es including racketeering, trafficking in counterfeit and contraband
goods, smuggling, produc&on and trade of narco&cs, forgery, illegal mining, illegal felling
of forests, illicit liquor trade, robbery, kidnapping, human trafficking, sexual exploita&on
and pros&tu&on, chea&ng and financial fraud, embezzlement, drug money, bank frauds,
and illegal trade in arms. Some of these offences are included in the schedule of the
Preven&on of Money Laundering Act 2002.
• The ‘corrupt’ component of such money could stem from bribery and the_ by those
holding public office – such as by grant of business, leakages from government social
spending programmes, speed money to circumvent or fast-track procedures, black
marke&ng of price-controlled services, and altering land use regularizing unauthorized
construc&on. All these ac&vi&es are illegal per se and a result of human greed combined
with declining societal values and inability of the state to prevent them.
• Factors leading to their genera&on are both social and administra&ve.
• These illegal ac&vi&es are punishable under various Acts of the central and state
governments which are administered by various law enforcement agencies. Effec&ve
implementa&on of these Acts is the responsibility of both state and central governments.
13. Black money generated from permissible
economic ac&vi&es
• Significant amount of black money, however, is
generated through legally permissible economic
ac&vi&es, which are not accounted for and
disclosed or reported to the public authori&es as
per the law or regula&ons, thereby conver&ng
such income into black money. The failure to
report or disclose such ac&vi&es or income may
be with the objec&ve of evading taxes or avoiding
the cost of compliance related to such repor&ng
or disclosure. It may also be the result of non-
compliance with some other law.
14. Culture and social prac&ces
• Culture and social prac&ces may also play a vital role in
deciding the preferences of ci&zens between tax
compliance and black money genera&on.
• In a society where tax evasion and under-repor&ng of
ac&vi&es and income is perceived to be very common or
the norm, such ac&vi&es may be considered acceptable and
honest tax compliance and paying one’s due share to the
public fund may not be considered a virtue.
• Studies indicate that countries with rela&vely poor
implementa&on of regula&ons tend to have a higher share
of unaccounted economy, whereas countries with properly
implemented regula&ons and sound deterrence have
smaller ‘black’ economies.
15.
16. Processes followed to generate black money from
permissible economic ac&vi&es
- Manipula&on of accounts : Financial Statement Approach
- Land and Real Estate Transac&ons
- Bullion and Jewelry Transac&ons
- Financial Market Transac&ons
- Public procurement
- Non-profit sector
An OECD (Organisa&on for Economic Coopera&on and Development)
es&mate puts the figure for public procurement in India at 30 per cent of
the GDP whereas a WTO (World Trade Organisa&on) es&mate puts this
figure at 20 per cent of the GDP.2 The Compe&&on Commission of India
had es&mated in a paper that the annual public sector procurement in India
would be of the order of Rs. 8 lakh crore while a rough es&ma&on of direct
government procurement is between Rs. 2.5 and 3 lakh crore. This puts the
total public procurement figure for India at around Rs. 10 to 11 lakh crore
per year.
17. Informal Sector and Cash Economy
• The issue of black money is related to the
magnitude of cash transac&ons in the informal
economy. The demand for currency is
determined by a number of factors such as
income, price levels, and opportunity cost of
holding currency.
• Factors like dependence on agriculture, existence
of a large informal sector, and insufficient
banking infrastructure with large un-banked and
under-banked areas contribute to the large cash
economy in India.
18. External trade and Transfer Pricing
• More than 60 per cent4 of global trade is carried out between associated
enterprises of mul&na&onal enterprises (MNEs). Since alloca&on of costs
and overheads and fixing of price of product/services are highly
subjec&ve, MNEs enjoy considerable discre&on in alloca&ng costs and
prices to par&cular products/services and geographical jurisdic&ons. Such
discre&on enables them to transfer profit/income to no tax or low tax
jurisdic&ons.
• Transfer pricing has emerged as the biggest tool for genera&on and
transfer of black money.
• Tax evasion through transfer pricing is largely invisible to the public and
difficult and expensive for tax officers to detect. Chris&anaid es&mates
that developing countries may be losing over US$160billion of tax
revenues a year, primarily through transfer pricing strategies.
Chris&anaid, Death and Taxes: The Truth of Tax Dodging, March 2009
21. Methodology of es&ma&ons of Black Money
Two dis&nct approaches:
(i) Kaldor’s approach of quan&fying non-salary incomes
above the exemp&on limit of income tax; and [ This was
followed by the Wanchoo Commi4ee , 1971]
(ii) The Edgar L. Feige method of working out transac&on
income on the basis of currency-deposit ra&o and
deriving from it the ‘black’ income of the economy.
Also refer to variables used by O.P.Chopra (1973-74), S
Acharya of NIPFP (1985), Gupta & Gupta (1981),
D.K.Rangnekar (1982), M.C.Joshi (2011).
22. Ins&tu&ons to Deal with Black Money
• Central Board of Direct Taxes
• Enforcement Directorate
• Financial Intelligence Unit
• Central Board of Excise and Customs and DRI
- The Directorate General of Central Excise Intelligence (DGCEI)
- The Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI)
• Central Economic Intelligence Bureau
• NCB
• The Central Bureau of Narco&cs (CBN)
• SFIO func&ons under the Ministry of Corporate Affairs
• The Registrar of Companies (ROC)
• The Registrar of Socie&es (ROS)
• The Bureau of Immigra&on (BOI)
• The Economic Intelligence Council (EIC)
• The Inter-Ministerial Coordina&on Commi4ee on Comba&ng Financing of Terrorism and Preven&on
of Money Laundering (IMCC)
• The Na&onal Crime Records Bureau (NCRB)
• The Na&onal Inves&ga&on Agency (NIA)
• CBI and Police Authori&es
27. RBI Working Paper Series 3 / 2013 : Es9ma9on of Counterfeit
Currency Notes in India – Alterna9ve Methodologies , March
19,2013 by Shri Sanjoy Bose and Dr. Abhiman Das
Counterfei&ng poses increasing challenges to currencies all over the world, including India.
Recent advances in prin&ng technology have only aided produc&on of counterfeit notes.
Despite the extent of counterfei&ng being apparently small in India, it poses serious threats
to the currency and financial system. The Government and the Reserve Bank have responded
to this threat by redesigning notes as also by a4emp&ng to improve public understanding
about authen&city of currency through awareness campaigns. To assess the effec&veness of
various measures to deter counterfei&ng, however, one needs to understand the exact
nature of the threat that counterfei&ng poses on economic ac&vity. It is necessary to
examine the level of counterfei&ng on a regular basis. Such examina&on is cri&cal both from
theore&cal and empirical points of view.
The extent of counterfei&ng is usually judged by observing the current flow of recoveries, or
by es&ma&ng the outstanding stock of counterfeits as a ra&o against total notes in
circula&on. However, the flow of recovery as well as seizure of counterfeits is directly
observable, whereas the total stock of counterfeits cannot be measured directly. To fill this
lacuna, the paper has proposed a probability model based methodology that could
poten&ally provide a scien&fic and prac&cal solu&on in obtaining credible sta&s&cal es&mates
of counterfeits in an enduring way.
32. A study on Fake Indian Currency Note (FICN) issues,
including es&ma&on of FICN in circula&on, was
conducted by Indian Sta&s&cal Ins&tute (ISI), Kolkata
under the overall supervision of NIA (Na&onal
Inves&ga&on Agency).
As per the study, the face value of FICN in circula&on
was found to be about Rs 400 crore [Minister of state
for finance Arjun Ram Meghwal said in a wri4en reply
to a Rajya Sabha ques&on on 2.8.2016]
38. The presses supplied around 6 billion pieces of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 in
2014-15 and 5 billion pieces in 2015-16. In 2016-17, the original
indent for Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes was around 8 billion. If the en&re
prin&ng capacity is pressed into ac&on, then it might be possible to
produce around 23 billion pieces a year (inclusive of all
denomina&ons). But with Rs 500 and Rs 1000 alone accoun&ng for 22
billion notes in circula&on, it might not be possible to meet the
demand for new Rs 500 and Rs 2000 in the short term.
41. • In his ar&cle for India Today, Jay Dubashi wrote that the move was directed at
freezing the secret funds of poli&cians, especially Indira Gandhi’s Congress.
Morarji Desai, the then Prime Minister said that the party had been spending
money “like water”. Gandhi had reportedly denied allega&ons saying that “even
a ten-rupee note is a luxury to me”.
• What’s interes&ng to note, however, is that IG Patel, the then RBI governor, was
not in favour of the step. He felt that many in the government perceived the
step as a measure targeted at the “corrupt predecessor government or
government leaders”.
• In his book, Glimpses of Indian Economic Policy: an Insider’s View, Patel writes
that when the then finance minister HM Patel told him about the step, he
asserted that steps like these rarely have striking results.
• He added that most people in possession of black money rarely keep their ill-
go4en earnings in the form of currency for long. Thinking that black money is
stashed away under ma4resses or suitcases is naive
A Look Back to 1978 When Currency
Notes Were Last Scrapped
42. • Dubashi in his ar&cle also wrote : Black money stashed as high-
value currency is much less than black money as untaxed income,
part of which might be splurged in conspicuous consump&on or
used for investment in real estate, commodi&es, stocks, benami
lending or plain gra_ to secure poli&cal or administra&ve goodwill.
• 1978 demone&za&on scheme was not successful primarily because
of two reasons:
- insufficient secrecy
- Most of the holders of high denomina&on notes did not turn up at
the bank to exchange their notes. Instead, they sold them to others
(mainly to the poor labourers) who could present them at the bank
with less suspicion.
A Look Back to 1978 When Currency
Notes Were Last Scrapped
43.
44. Demone&za&on in Philippines
• The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has been reminding
consumers that their old peso bills, which were issued before 2010,
can only be used un&l December 31, 2015 for daily transac&ons.
• This is because from January to December 2016, the old notes
cannot be used for regular transac&ons and can only be exchanged
at authorized banks and BSP offices. From January 2017 onwards,
these old bills will be demone&zed, or will no longer have monetary
value.
• BSP defines demone&za&on as the process of removing the
monetary value of a legal tender currency. This means that
demone&zed currency is no longer accepted to pay for goods and
services.
• This process is done to safeguard the integrity of the currency,
protec&ng it against counterfeiters.
45. Nigeria During the government of Muhammadu Buhari in 1984, Nigeria introduced
new currency and banned the old notes. It was great success. See Slides
27-28 how Buharinomics salavaged Nigerian economy.
Ghana In 1982, Ghana demone&zed 50 cedis note to tackle tax evasion and empty
excess liquidity. This made the people of the country support the black
market and they started inves&ng in physical assets which obviously made
the economy weak. See Slides 29-30 how the case of demone&za&on in
Ghana was different.
USSR Mikhail Gorbachev ordered to withdrew large-ruble bills from circula&on to
take over the black market. The move didn’t go well with the ci&zens which
resulted into a coup a4empt which brought down his authority and the led
to Soviet breakup. See Slide 31
Demone&za&on in other Countries
46. Buharinomics - General Buhari’s
economic program marshaled out
to salvage the nation in 1984
Buharinomics was General Buhari’s economic program marshaled out to salvage
the nation in 1984. He summarized the objective of his economic policy (as
articulated in the 1984 budget) as follows: "To arrest the decline in the economy,
to put the economy on a proper course of recovery and solvency, and to chart a
future course for economic stability and prosperity" (West Africa, May 14, 1984).
Buharinomics was to wean the nation off consumerism and profligacy, while
channeling it towards frugality and productivity. To accomplish this, the
government was to cut down on its expenditure, engage in more efficient
restricting and controlling of foreign exchange outflow, undertake the revival of
the country's productive capacity (concentration was on agriculture), and
broaden government's revenue base.
47. Buharinomics - General Buhari’s economic
program marshaled out to salvage the nation
in 1984
• The first test of Buharinomics was implemented to revive the
comatose banking industry and arrest local currency hoarding. In
April 1984, the government ordered a change in the color of the
Naira. This action was dubbed the “real coup” by unscrupulous
business men and politicians who had almost eliminated the need
for commercial banking in Nigeria by keeping their moneys under
their mattresses or by trafficking them into neighboring West
African countries.
• This currency change, which forced all holders of the naira notes
into exchanging them for the new naira notes at commercial
banks, infused billions that had remained unaccounted for into the
banking industry and eliminated counterfeited currencies, which
had inflicted inflationary and other nefarious effects on the
economy. This measure had an immediate revitalizing effect in the
banking industry and was an unqualified success. Banks that were
close to collapsing became vibrant again, to the extent that some
of them began to hire hitherto unemployed Nigerians.
51. The final Soviet monetary reform began on January 22, 1991. It was named
the Pavlov Reform after its architect, Minister of Finance Valentin Pavlov, who
also became the last prime minister of the Soviet Union.
The standard of living in the country plummeted. By the end of 1991, the economy
of the USSR was in a disastrous state. Production continued to slump. The
average national income dwindled by 20% compared with 1990. The state budget
deficit, namely, the excess of expenditures over revenues, reached an estimated
20-30% of the GDP. The nationwide growth of the money supply was fraught with
the loss of control over the financial system and hyperinflation exceeding 50% each
month, which had the potential to paralyze the entire economy.
The main consequence of the reform was the people’s loss of confidence in the
government’s actions. Many politicians and historians think that the 1991 Soviet
political and financial reforms completely undermined the people’s trust in the
Kremlin and seriously influenced subsequent developments, including the August
Coup of 1991 and the Belavezha Accords of December 1991 on dissolving the
USSR.
54. Demonetization a bold move, but could
hurt markets for 6 months: Christopher
Wood
CLSA MD Christopher Wood on Narendra
Modi’s demonetization move against black
money and impact on markets
“I think it is going to impact the economy in the next six months. But I am
hoping it is short and sharp. The biggest negative is for the real estate
market. It is negative for equities in the short term and positive for
bonds.
The question is how long will the pain remain (for equity markets)—six
months or one year? I am hoping it’s six months, but that’s just an initial
estimate. It all depends on how quickly they get the new money in place.
If the new money comes in soon, things will not be so bad. If it goes
beyond six months, the markets will be vulnerable.
The real estate sector was already doing badly, that’s hit, but then it was
already lying on the ground. Autos, cement and housing finance were
doing well, and are now going to be hit.
On the positive side, tax revenues will rise and this will help in reining in
the fiscal deficit. The other benefit will be to the bond market and
currency. The currency has been very stable and this will be a positive
for it.”
56. Impact of Demonetization on Residential
Real Estate
The luxury and high-end segments of residential real estate will also see a
major impact from this exercise, since it is another area which has seen a lot
of payments done in cash. The legal banking/financing channels have
accounted for only a small part of all transactions in this space. The
demonetization move is likely to result in luxury property prices dipping by as
much as 25-30% as sellers struggle to offload properties to generate liquidity.
This means that luxury home buyers will suddenly have a much wider
bandwidth of options to choose from.
Ashwinder Raj Singh, CEO – Residential Services, JLL India
57. The Nega&ves
• Extracts of “Black Money” and India’s Demone9za9on Project
Prominent Ci9zens Ques9on Delhi Government's Inten9ons
By Prof Prabhat Patnaik
• Black money is generated through evasion of taxes on income from lawful ac&vi&es and money
generated from illegal ac&vi&es. In the absence of steps to curb the genera&on of black money,
demone&za&on is a fu&le exercise, as it proved to be in 1978.
• In the last 5 years, IT raids have found that only 5-6% of black money is kept in hard cash.
Moreover, those who have amassed sizable black money are equipped to find ways around
demone&za&on by conver&ng their exis&ng cash to bullion, gold jewellery, real estate and foreign
currencies through brokers and middle-men. In fact, organized middle-men and touts have already
emerged to convert black money into white for a commission.
• As per The Indian Sta&s&cal Ins&tute, Kolkata study done on behalf of the Na&onal Inves&ga&on
Agency (NIA), Rs 400 crores worth of fake currency is in circula&on in the Indian economy. This is
only .028% of Rs 14,180 billion worth currency demone&sed in Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes.
• 86% of currency in circula&on is in Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes. 97% of all transac&ons by volume are
done in cash. Summary demone&za&on has created chaos all over the countr
• Only about 30% of the Indian popula&on has access to the banking system as per data compiled by
the banking division of the finance ministry. Moreover, the distribu&on of banks is highly skewed
with a third of all bank branches in only 60 Tier 1 and Tier 2 ci&es/towns. Consequently, people in
rural India who o_en also suffer from inadequate informa&on have become the worst vic&ms of
demone&sa&on.
59. Which will be affected
§ Effect on parallel economy: Cash Economy to Witness Contraction
§ Effect on GDP: Downward Bias to GDP Growth
§ Lower Money Supply has a Defla&onary Effect
§ Impact on Bond Markets
§ Credit Impact across Sectors
§ Effect on Banks
§ Effect on Online Transac&ons and alterna&ve modes of payment
§ Bank Deposit Rates to So_en
§ NBFC’s Asset Quality Faces Pressure
§ Payment Banks to Benefit
60. “This [demonetization] is a step which will
make a positive difference, if the transition
challenges get handled well by the
administration,” says Jitendra V. Singh,
Wharton emeritus professor of
management.
“We will need to be careful of potential
attempts to derail this positive agenda.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
echoes those sentiments. “We support the
measures to fight corruption and illicit
financial flows in India,” said a
spokesperson Gerry Rice. “Of course, given
the large role of cash in everyday
transactions in India’s economy, the
currency transition will have to be
managed prudently to minimize possible
disruption.”
61. According to Mauro F. Guillen, a Wharton management
professor and director of the School’s Lauder Institute:
“important source of problems” such as corrup&on, black money,
terrorism and counterfeit money. “The eurozone will be
elimina&ng the largest euro note. The U.S. is also trying to reduce
the [number of] 100 dollar bills in circula&on.”
Dr. Felix Zandman Professor
Professor of International Management
Director, The Lauder Institute
62. Withdrawal of Legal Tender Status for 500
and 1000 Notes: RBI Notice
- Government of India vide their Notification no. 2652 dated November 8, 2016 have withdrawn
the Legal Tender status of 500 and 1,000 denominations of banknotes of the Mahatma
Gandhi Series issued by the Reserve Bank of India till November 8, 2016.
- Starting from November 10, 2016, members of public/corporates, business firms, societies,
trusts, etc., holding these notes can tender them at any office of the Reserve Bank or any bank
branch and obtain value thereof by credit into their respective bank accounts.
- For their immediate cash needs, these notes of value up to 4,000 per person can be
exchanged for cash over the counter of these bank branches.
Public are advised to present a valid proof of identity for availing this exchange facility.
- Value credited to their bank accounts can be freely used by issue of cheques or by remitting
through various electronic modes of transfer like NEFT, RTGS, IMPS, mobile banking, internet
banking etc.
-Cash withdrawals from bank accounts, over the bank counters, will be restricted to a limited
amount of 10,000 per day subject to an overall limit of 20,000 a week from November 9,
2016 till end of business on November 24, 2016. The limits will be reviewed after this.
- All ATMs and other cash machines will remain shut on November 9, 2016 to facilitate
recalibration. When ready, they will be reactivated and cash drawals from ATMs will be
restricted to 2,000 per day per card up to November 18, 2016 and the limits shall be raised
to 4000 per day per card from November 19, 2016.
-Any person who is unable to exchange or deposit the specified banknotes in their bank
accounts on or before December 30, 2016 shall be given an opportunity to do so at specified
offices of the Reserve Bank or such other facility until a later date as may be specified by the
Reserve Bank.