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Demone&za&on	2016	
T.P.Ghosh
h4ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn64Vf6GEoo	
	
Addressing the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: "We need to
take a new solid step to fight black money. From now on, Rs 500 and Rs
1000 notes will not be used. Have 50 days to turn them into banks and post
offices."
Meaning	•  Demone&za&on is	the	act	of	stripping	a	currency	unit	of	its	status	as	legal	
tender.	Demone&za&on	is	necessary	whenever	there	is	a	change	of	na&onal	
currency.	The	old	unit	of	currency	must	be	re&red	and	replaced	with	a	new	
currency	unit.	
•  A	 recent	 example	 of	 demone&za&on	 occurred	 when	 the	 na&ons	 of	 the	
European	Monetary	Union	adopted	the	euro.	In	order	to	switch	to	the	euro,	
authori&es	first	fixed	exchange	rates	for	the	varied	na&onal	currencies	into	
euros.	 When	 the	 €	 was	 introduced,	 the	 old	 na&onal	 currencies	 were	
demone&zed.	However,	the	old	currencies	remained	conver&ble	into	euros	
for	 a	 while	 so	 that	 a	 smooth	 transi&on	 through	 demone&za&on	 would	 be	
assured.		
•  The	case	of	break-up	of		USSR	and	end	of	ruble	zone	is	an	alterna&ve	case	of	
demone&za&on.	 	 in	 1993,	 the	 Central	 Bank	 of	 Russia	 (CBR)	 unilaterally	
demone&zed	soviet	era	ruble	notes	and	exchanged	them	for	Russian	rubles.	
The	ruble	zone	was	effec&vely	terminated	and	the	remaining	9	ruble	zone	
countries	(some	countries	had	le_	even	earlier)	were	forced	to	adopt	their	
own	currencies.	Ul&mately,	the	ruble	zone	broke	up	because	Russia	(or	more	
precisely	CBR)	was	not	prepared	to	pay	the	economic	price	required	for	its	
con&nua&on.		
•  Even	 a_er	 winning	 the	 war	 of	 independence,	 Bangladesh	 retained	 the	 old	
currency	 for	 several	 months.	 The	 statute	 seang	 up	 the	 Bank	 of	
Bangladesh	stated	that	“all	Bank	Notes,	Coins	and	Currency	Notes	…	which	
were	in	circula&on	in	Bangladesh	[on	December	16,	1971]	shall	con&nue	to	
be	 legal	 tender”.	 Subsequently,	 Bangladesh	 printed	 new	 currency	 and	
exchanged	the	old	notes.	
•  The	context	and	coverage	of	Indian	Demone&za&on	2016	is	different.
Urjit	Patel,	24th	RBI	
Governor	:	Very	Bold	Step	
	
	
Notes	of	Rs	500	and	Rs	1000	“will	
not	be	legal	tender	from	midnight	
tonight”	and	these	will	be	“just	
worthless	piece	of	paper.”	
38 years ago, Jan 16,1978, right after
emergency was lifted from India, Janta Party
government led Prime Minister Morarji Desai,
had decided to demonetise Rs 1,000, Rs
5,000 and Rs 10,000 notes in a bid to combat
corruption and black money.
Did	not	support	
demone&za&on	
then
Today’s	Discussion	
•  Indian	demone&za&on	announced	on	8th	Nov	
2016
The	government	had	asked	its		three	think	tanks	—Na&onal	Ins&tute	of	Public	
Finance	and	Policy,	Na&onal	Ins&tute	of	Financial	Management	and	Na&onal	
Council	of	Applied	Economic	Research	—	to	arrive	at	an	es&mate	of	black	money	
in	the	country.	The	three	used	various	methodologies	and	have	given	various	
es&mates.	Reportedly,	the	es&mates	was	on	the	basis	of	the	methodology	used	in	
a	World	Bank	research	group	report,	which	pegged	India’s	current	black	money	
economy	at	about	30	per	cent	of	GDP.
RK Laxman's Cartoon when
demonetization was tried back in 1978
The cartoon is made in the context of 1978, when the largest
denominations formed a very little part of the overall economy, we can
never really be sure of the moves taken by the government.
White	Paper	on	Black	Money,	May	2012	
The	“White	Paper	on	Black	Money”	presents	
the	different	facets	of	black	money	and	its	
complexrela&onship	with	policy	and	
administra&ve	regime	in	the	country.
White	Paper	on	Black	Money,	May	2012
White	Paper	on	Black	Money,	May	2012
Factors	Leading	Genera&on	of	Black	Money	
•  Black	money	arising	from	illegal	ac&vi&es	such	as	crime	and	corrup&on	has	an	underlying	
an&social	element.	The	‘criminal’	component	of	black	money	may	include	proceeds	from	
a	 range	 of	 ac&vi&es	 including	 racketeering,	 trafficking	 in	 counterfeit	 and	 contraband	
goods,	smuggling,	produc&on	and	trade	of	narco&cs,	forgery,	illegal	mining,	illegal	felling	
of	forests,	illicit	liquor	trade,	robbery,	kidnapping,	human	trafficking,	sexual	exploita&on	
and	pros&tu&on,	chea&ng	and	financial	fraud,	embezzlement,	drug	money,	bank	frauds,	
and	 illegal	 trade	 in	 arms.	 Some	 of	 these	 offences	 are	 included	 in	 the	 schedule	 of	 the	
Preven&on	of	Money	Laundering	Act	2002.		
•  The	 ‘corrupt’	 component	 of	 such	 money	 could	 stem	 from	 bribery	 and	 the_	 by	 those	
holding	 public	 office	 –	 such	 as	 by	 grant	 of	 business,	 leakages	 from	 government	 social	
spending	 programmes,	 speed	 money	 to	 circumvent	 or	 fast-track	 procedures,	 black	
marke&ng	 of	 price-controlled	 services,	 and	 altering	 land	 use	 regularizing	 unauthorized	
construc&on.	All	these	ac&vi&es	are	illegal	per	se	and	a	result	of	human	greed	combined	
with	declining	societal	values	and	inability	of	the	state	to	prevent	them.	
•  	Factors	leading	to	their	genera&on	are	both	social	and	administra&ve.	
•  These	 illegal	 ac&vi&es	 are	 punishable	 under	 various	 Acts	 of	 the	 central	 and	 state	
governments	 which	 are	 administered	 by	 various	 law	 enforcement	 agencies.	 Effec&ve	
implementa&on	of	these	Acts	is	the	responsibility	of	both	state	and	central	governments.
Black	money	generated	from	permissible	
economic	ac&vi&es	
•  Significant	 amount	 of	 black	 money,	 however,	 is	
generated	 through	 legally	 permissible	 economic	
ac&vi&es,	 which	 are	 not	 accounted	 for	 and	
disclosed	or	reported	to	the	public	authori&es	as	
per	 the	 law	 or	 regula&ons,	 thereby	 conver&ng	
such	 income	 into	 black	 money.	 The	 failure	 to	
report	or	disclose	such	ac&vi&es	or	income	may	
be	with	the	objec&ve	of	evading	taxes	or	avoiding	
the	cost	of	compliance	related	to	such	repor&ng	
or	 disclosure.	 It	 may	 also	 be	 the	 result	 of	 non-
compliance	with	some	other	law.
Culture	and	social	prac&ces	
•  Culture	 and	 social	 prac&ces	 may	 also	 play	 a	 vital	 role	 in	
deciding	 the	 preferences	 of	 ci&zens	 between	 tax	
compliance	and	black	money	genera&on.		
•  In	 a	 society	 where	 tax	 evasion	 and	 under-repor&ng	 of	
ac&vi&es	 and	 income	 is	 perceived	 to	 be	 very	 common	 or	
the	norm,	such	ac&vi&es	may	be	considered	acceptable	and	
honest	tax	compliance	and	paying	one’s	due	share	to	the	
public	fund	may	not	be	considered	a	virtue.		
•  Studies	 indicate	 that	 countries	 with	 rela&vely	 poor	
implementa&on	of	regula&ons	tend	to	have	a	higher	share	
of	unaccounted	economy,	whereas	countries	with	properly	
implemented	 regula&ons	 and	 sound	 deterrence	 have	
smaller	‘black’	economies.
Processes	followed	to	generate	black	money	from	
permissible	economic	ac&vi&es	
-  Manipula&on	of	accounts	:	Financial	Statement	Approach	
-  Land	and	Real	Estate	Transac&ons	
-  Bullion	and	Jewelry	Transac&ons	
-  Financial	Market	Transac&ons	
-  Public	procurement	
-  Non-profit	sector	
An	 OECD	 (Organisa&on	 for	 Economic	 Coopera&on	 and	 Development)	
es&mate	puts	the	figure	for	public	procurement	in	India	at	30	per	cent	of	
the	 GDP	 whereas	 a	 WTO	 (World	 Trade	 Organisa&on)	 es&mate	 puts	 this	
figure	at	20	per	cent	of	the	GDP.2	The	Compe&&on	Commission	of	India	
had	es&mated	in	a	paper	that	the	annual	public	sector	procurement	in	India	
would	be	of	the	order	of	Rs.	8	lakh	crore	while	a	rough	es&ma&on	of	direct	
government	procurement	is	between	Rs.	2.5	and	3	lakh	crore.	This	puts	the	
total	public	procurement	figure	for	India	at	around	Rs.	10	to	11	lakh	crore	
per	year.
Informal	Sector	and	Cash	Economy	
•  The	 issue	 of	 black	 money	 is	 related	 to	 the	
magnitude	 of	 cash	 transac&ons	 in	 the	 informal	
economy.	 The	 demand	 for	 currency	 is	
determined	 by	 a	 number	 of	 factors	 such	 as	
income,	 price	 levels,	 and	 opportunity	 cost	 of	
holding	currency.		
•  Factors	like	dependence	on	agriculture,	existence	
of	 a	 large	 informal	 sector,	 and	 insufficient	
banking	infrastructure	with	large	un-banked	and	
under-banked	areas	contribute	to	the	large	cash	
economy	in	India.
External	trade	and	Transfer	Pricing	
•  More	than	60	per	cent4	of	global	trade	is	carried	out	between	associated	
enterprises	of	mul&na&onal	enterprises	(MNEs).	Since	alloca&on	of	costs	
and	 overheads	 and	 fixing	 of	 price	 of	 product/services	 are	 highly	
subjec&ve,	 MNEs	 enjoy	 considerable	 discre&on	 in	 alloca&ng	 costs	 and	
prices	to	par&cular	products/services	and	geographical	jurisdic&ons.	Such	
discre&on	 enables	 them	 to	 transfer	 profit/income	 to	 no	 tax	 or	 low	 tax	
jurisdic&ons.	
•  Transfer	 pricing	 has	 emerged	 as	 the	 biggest	 tool	 for	 genera&on	 and	
transfer	of	black	money.	
•  Tax	evasion	through	transfer	pricing	is	largely	invisible	to	the	public	and	
difficult	and	expensive	for	tax	officers	to	detect.	Chris&anaid	es&mates	
that	developing	countries	may	be	losing	over	US$160billion	of	tax	
revenues	a	year,	primarily	through	transfer	pricing	strategies.	
	
Chris&anaid,	Death	and	Taxes:	The	Truth	of	Tax	Dodging,	March	2009
Tax	Heavens
Methodology	of	es&ma&ons	of	Black	Money		
Two	dis&nct	approaches:	
(i)	 Kaldor’s	 approach	 of	 quan&fying	 non-salary	 incomes	
above	the	exemp&on	limit	of	income	tax;	and	[	This	was	
followed	by	the	Wanchoo	Commi4ee	,	1971]	
(ii)	The	Edgar	L.	Feige	method	of	working	out	transac&on	
income	 on	 the	 basis	 of	 currency-deposit	 ra&o	 and	
deriving	from	it	the	‘black’	income	of	the	economy.	
Also	refer	to	variables	used	 	by	O.P.Chopra	(1973-74),	S	
Acharya	 of	 NIPFP	 (1985),	 Gupta	 &	 Gupta	 (1981),	
D.K.Rangnekar	(1982),	M.C.Joshi	(2011).
Ins&tu&ons	to	Deal	with	Black	Money	
•  Central	Board	of	Direct	Taxes	
•  Enforcement	Directorate	
•  Financial	Intelligence	Unit	
•  Central	Board	of	Excise	and	Customs	and	DRI	
					-	The	Directorate	General	of	Central	Excise	 	Intelligence	(DGCEI)	
					-	The	Directorate	of	Revenue	Intelligence	(DRI)	
•  Central	Economic	Intelligence	Bureau	
•  NCB	
•  The	Central	Bureau	of	Narco&cs	(CBN)	
•  	SFIO	func&ons	under	the	Ministry	of	Corporate	Affairs	
•  The	Registrar	of	Companies	(ROC)	
•  The	Registrar	of	Socie&es	(ROS)	
•  The	Bureau	of	Immigra&on	(BOI)	
•  The	Economic	Intelligence	Council	(EIC)	
•  The	Inter-Ministerial	Coordina&on	Commi4ee	on	Comba&ng	Financing	of	Terrorism	and	Preven&on	
of	Money	Laundering	(IMCC)	
•  The	Na&onal	Crime	Records	Bureau	(NCRB)	
•  The	Na&onal	Inves&ga&on	Agency	(NIA)	
•  CBI	and	Police	Authori&es
Report	of	the	Commi4ee	headed	by	the	CBDT	2012
XE	Currency	Converter:	USD	to	INR	
	
1	USD	=68.1800INR	
Live	mid-market	rate	2016-11-20	
15:27	UTC	
US$	Billion	
Current	
Exchange	
rate	 INR	Billion	
%	Currency	
in	
Circula&on	
to	GDP	
GDP	 2073.54	 68.18	 141373.96	
Size	of	shadow	
economy	(30%)	 42412.19	
Currency	in	Circula&on	 16400.00	 11.60%	
Shadow	economy	in	
currency	(11.6%)	 4920.00
Reference	:	New	Es&mates	for	the	Shadow	Economies	all	
over	the	World		
Friedrich	 Schneider,	 Andreas	 Buehn,	 and	 Claudio	 E.	
Montenegro		
This	 is	 a	 background	 paper	 for	 In	 from	 the	 Shadow:	
Integra1ng	 Europe’s	 Informal	 Labor,	 a	 World	 Bank	
regional	 report	 on	 the	 informal	 sector	 in	 Central,	
Southern	 Europe	 and	 the	 Bal&c	 countries	 (Task	 number	
P112988).
RBI	Working	Paper	Series	3	/	2013	:	Es9ma9on	of	Counterfeit	
Currency	Notes	in	India	–	Alterna9ve	Methodologies	,	March	
19,2013		by	Shri	Sanjoy	Bose	and	Dr.	Abhiman	Das	
Counterfei&ng	poses	increasing	challenges	to	currencies	all	over	the	world,	including	India.	
Recent	 advances	 in	 prin&ng	 technology	 have	 only	 aided	 produc&on	 of	 counterfeit	 notes.	
Despite	the	extent	of	counterfei&ng	being	apparently	small	in	India,	it	poses	serious	threats	
to	the	currency	and	financial	system.	The	Government	and	the	Reserve	Bank	have	responded	
to	this	threat	by	redesigning	notes	as	also	by	a4emp&ng	to	improve	public	understanding	
about	authen&city	of	currency	through	awareness	campaigns.	To	assess	the	effec&veness	of	
various	 measures	 to	 deter	 counterfei&ng,	 however,	 one	 needs	 to	 understand	 the	 exact	
nature	 of	 the	 threat	 that	 counterfei&ng	 poses	 on	 economic	 ac&vity.	 It	 is	 necessary	 to	
examine	the	level	of	counterfei&ng	on	a	regular	basis.	Such	examina&on	is	cri&cal	both	from	
theore&cal	and	empirical	points	of	view.	
The	extent	of	counterfei&ng	is	usually	judged	by	observing	the	current	flow	of	recoveries,	or	
by	 es&ma&ng	 the	 outstanding	 stock	 of	 counterfeits	 as	 a	 ra&o	 against	 total	 notes	 in	
circula&on.	 However,	 the	 flow	 of	 recovery	 as	 well	 as	 seizure	 of	 counterfeits	 is	 directly	
observable,	whereas	the	total	stock	of	counterfeits	cannot	be	measured	directly.	To	fill	this	
lacuna,	 the	 paper	 has	 proposed	 a	 probability	 model	 based	 methodology	 that	 could	
poten&ally	provide	a	scien&fic	and	prac&cal	solu&on	in	obtaining	credible	sta&s&cal	es&mates	
of	counterfeits	in	an	enduring	way.
Expressing	occurrence	or	detec&on	of	fake	notes	in	per	million	of	
notes	in	circula&on	is	the	common	interna&onal	conven&on	and	is	
to	be	interpreted	in	a	vis-à-vis	manner.	Prima	facie,	one	may	try	to	
figure	out	that	during	2007-08	to	2011-12,	es&mated	4.4	-	8.1	
pieces	counterfeit	notes	per	million	NIC	were	floa&ng	in	the	
system.	It	may,	therefore,	be	interpreted	that	about	3.9	lakh	pieces	
of	counterfeit	notes,	on	an	average,	seemed	to	be	floa&ng	in	the	
system	as	against	about	56.74	billion	pieces	of	NIC	during	2007-08	
to	2010-11,	which	amounts	to	about	6.9	pieces	counterfeit	notes	
per	million	NIC	floa&ng,	on	an	average,	in	the	system	during	last	
five-year	period	.	
	However,	this	may	not	cons&tute	a	credible	es&mate	as	it	does	
not	give	a	fair	idea	about	the	actual	incidence	of	fake	notes	that	
remained	floa&ng	and	undetected	in	the	system.
Explaining	India’s	huge	currency	problem	where	250	
out	of	every	10	lakh	notes	are	fake	
	
Data	show	Delhi	and	UP	accounted	for	over	43%	of	
recovered	and	seized	fake	currency	notes	in	2015.	
FICN	with	face	value	of	Rs	70	cr	enter	the	economy	
every	year;	only	a	third	is	intercepted.	
	
Indian	Express	June	8,2016
NIC	 Mar-16	Counterfeit	notes	
RS	
Million	
Pieces	 Per	million	
No.in		
pieces	
Amount	in	
Rs.	cr.	
500	 15710	 16.4	 257644	 12.88	
1000	 6330	 16.4	 103812	 5.19	
18.07	
Only	1/3	rd	Fake	currency	is	detected	 X3	
54.21	
Based	NIC	(	500	&100)	in	March	2016
A	 study	 on	 Fake	 Indian	 Currency	 Note	 (FICN)	 issues,	
including	 es&ma&on	 of	 FICN	 in	 circula&on,	 was	
conducted	 by	 Indian	 Sta&s&cal	 Ins&tute	 (ISI),	 Kolkata	
under	 the	 overall	 supervision	 of	 NIA	 (Na&onal	
Inves&ga&on	Agency).		
	
As	per	the	study,	the	face	value	of	FICN	in	circula&on	
was	found	to	be	about	Rs	400	crore	[Minister	of	state	
for	finance	Arjun	Ram	Meghwal	said	in	a	wri4en	reply	
to	a	Rajya	Sabha	ques&on	on	2.8.2016]
Related	Facts	
•  The	former		RBI	Governor	Raghuram	Rajan	did	not	support	
demone&za&on		
Rajan:	I	am	not	quite	sure	if	what	you	meant	is	
demone1se	the	old	notes	and	introduce	new	notes	
instead.	In	the	past	demone1sa1on	has	been	thought	off	
as	a	way	of	geCng	black	money	out	of	circula1on.	
Because	people	then	have	to	come	and	say	"how	do	I	have	
this	ten	crores	in	cash	siCng	in	my	safe"	and	they	have	to	
explain	where	they	got	the	money	from.	It	is	oHen	cited	as	
a	solu1on.	Unfortunately,	my	sense	is	the	clever	find	ways	
around	it.	
They	find	ways	to	divide	up	their	hoard	in	to	many	smaller	pieces.	You	do	find	that	
people	who	haven't	thought	of	a	way	to	convert	black	to	white,	throw	it	into	the	Hundi	
in	some	temples.	I	think	there	are	ways	around	demone1za1on.	It	is	not	that	easy	to	
flush	out	the	black	money.	Of	course,	a	fair	amount	may	be	in	the	form	of	gold,	
therefore	even	harder	to	catch.	I	would	focus	more	on	the	incen1ves	to	generate	and	
retain	black	money.	A	lot	of	the	incen1ves	are	on	taxes.
RBI	said	no	to	demone9za9on	
during	UPA-II	
	
KC	Chakrabarty,	former	DG	of	RBI	spills	the	beans:	In	an	interview,	he	says	RBI	
was	asked	earlier	as	well.	The	proposal	did	not	even	move	to	the	Board	level	!	
•  You	were	the	deputy	governor	of	RBI	when	the	UPA-II	government	was	
at	the	centre.	Was	there	any	such	proposal	from	the	government	during	
your	tenure?	
•  Yes,	it	had	come	from	the	UPA	government.	A_er	examining	the	proposal,	
we	had	said	that	this	should	not	be	done.	The	proposal	never	went	to	the	
board	level.	
•  Was	it	a	formal	proposal?	What	was	the	reason	for	declining	it?	
•  Whether	it	came	officially	or	over	telephone,	is	not	the	issue.	But	I	
definitely	remember	it	had	come.	We	said	‘no’	because	it	does	not	serve	
any	purpose…	the	cost	is	high	and	the	benefit	is	less.	
•  It	has	already	impacted	the	banking	system.	For	the	next	couple	of	
months,	banks	will	only	concentrate	on	exchange	of	notes,	no	business	
can	happen.
Share	of	large	denomina&on	
currencies
Extracts	of	RBI	Bulle&n	Nov	2016
The	presses	supplied	around	6	billion	pieces	of	Rs	500	and	Rs	1000	in	
2014-15	 and	 5	 billion	 pieces	 in	 2015-16.	 In	 2016-17,	 the	 original	
indent	for	Rs	500	and	Rs	1000	notes	was	around	8	billion.	If	the	en&re	
prin&ng	capacity	is	pressed	into	ac&on,	then	it	might	be	possible	to	
produce	 around	 23	 billion	 pieces	 a	 year	 (inclusive	 of	 all	
denomina&ons).	But	with	Rs	500	and	Rs	1000	alone	accoun&ng	for	22	
billion	 notes	 in	 circula&on,	 it	 might	 not	 be	 possible	 to	 meet	 the	
demand	for	new	Rs	500	and	Rs	2000	in	the	short	term.
Historical	perspec&ve	
	
•  1978	demone&za&on	
•  Demone&za&on	in	Philippines	
•  Buharinomics	in	Nigeria	(1982)	
•  Demone&za&on	in	Ghana	(	1979&1981)	
•  Soviet	Monetary	Reform	(1991)
A	Look	Back	to	1978	When	Currency	
Notes	Were	Last	Scrapped	
•  It	was	on	16	January	1978	that	the	country	was	told	that	the	
Janata	Party	coali&on,	which	had	assumed	office	a	year	earlier,	has	
decided	to	scrap	Rs	1,000,	Rs	5,000	and	Rs	10,000	notes.	
•  The	quantum	of	Rs.	1000,	5000	and	10,000	notes	in	the	total	
economy	which	was	in	circula&on	was	only	10	%	in	1978.	The	
Scheme	was	not	successful.	
•  It	was	in	the	early	1970s	that	the	Wanchoo	commi4ee	made	
recommenda&ons	about	withdrawing	the	bank	notes	while	talking	
about	the	menace	of	black	money	in	the	country.	
•  However,	these	recommenda&ons	could	not	be	publicised	for	the	
fear	of	it	being	counterproduc&ve	–	black	money	operators	could	
get	rid	of	high-value	notes.
•  In	his	ar&cle	for	India	Today,	Jay	Dubashi	wrote	that	the	move	was	directed	at	
freezing	 the	 secret	 funds	 of	 poli&cians,	 especially	 Indira	 Gandhi’s	 Congress.	
Morarji	Desai,	the	then	Prime	Minister	said	that	the	party	had	been	spending	
money	“like	water”.	Gandhi	had	reportedly	denied	allega&ons	saying	that	“even	
a	ten-rupee	note	is	a	luxury	to	me”.	
•  What’s	interes&ng	to	note,	however,	is	that	IG	Patel,	the	then	RBI	governor,	was	
not	in	favour	of	the	step.	He	felt	that	many	in	the	government	perceived	the	
step	 as	 a	 measure	 targeted	 at	 the	 “corrupt	 predecessor	 government	 or	
government	leaders”.	
•  In	his	book,	Glimpses	of	Indian	Economic	Policy:	an	Insider’s	View,	Patel	writes	
that	 when	 the	 then	 finance	 minister	 HM	 Patel	 told	 him	 about	 the	 step,	 he	
asserted	that	steps	like	these	rarely	have	striking	results.	
•  He	added	that	most	people	in	possession	of	black	money	rarely	keep	their	ill-
go4en	earnings	in	the	form	of	currency	for	long.	Thinking	that	black	money	is	
stashed	away	under	ma4resses	or	suitcases	is	naive	
A	Look	Back	to	1978	When	Currency	
Notes	Were	Last	Scrapped
•  Dubashi	 in	 his	 ar&cle	 also	 wrote	 :	 Black	 money	 stashed	 as	 high-
value	currency	is	much	less	than	black	money	as	untaxed	income,	
part	 of	 which	 might	 be	 splurged	 in	 conspicuous	 consump&on	 or	
used	 for	 investment	 in	 real	 estate,	 commodi&es,	 stocks,	 benami	
lending	or	plain	gra_	to	secure	poli&cal	or	administra&ve	goodwill.	
•  1978	demone&za&on	scheme	was	not	successful	primarily	because	
of	two	reasons:	
				-	insufficient	secrecy		
				-	Most	of	the	holders	of	high	denomina&on	notes	did	not	turn	up	at	
the	bank	to	exchange	their	notes.		Instead,	they	sold	them	to	others	
(mainly	to	the	poor	labourers)	who	could	present	them	at	the	bank	
with	less	suspicion.	
A	Look	Back	to	1978	When	Currency	
Notes	Were	Last	Scrapped
Demone&za&on	in	Philippines	
•  The	 Bangko	 Sentral	 ng	 Pilipinas	 (BSP)	 has	 been	 reminding	
consumers	that	their	old	peso	bills,	which	were	issued	before	2010,	
can	only	be	used	un&l	December	31,	2015	for	daily	transac&ons.	
•  This	 is	 because	 from	 January	 to	 December	 2016,	 the	 old	 notes	
cannot	be	used	for	regular	transac&ons	and	can	only	be	exchanged	
at	authorized	banks	and	BSP	offices.	From	January	2017	onwards,	
these	old	bills	will	be	demone&zed,	or	will	no	longer	have	monetary	
value.	
•  BSP	 defines	 demone&za&on	 as	 the	 process	 of	 removing	 the	
monetary	 value	 of	 a	 legal	 tender	 currency.	 This	 means	 that	
demone&zed	currency	is	no	longer	accepted	to	pay	for	goods	and	
services.	
•  This	 process	 is	 done	 to	 safeguard	 the	 integrity	 of	 the	 currency,	
protec&ng	it	against	counterfeiters.
Nigeria	 During	the	government	of	Muhammadu	Buhari	in	1984,	Nigeria	introduced	
new	 currency	 and	 banned	 the	 old	 notes.	 It	 was	 great	 success.	 See	 Slides	
27-28	how	Buharinomics		salavaged	Nigerian	economy.	
Ghana	 In	1982,	Ghana	demone&zed	50	cedis	note	to	tackle	tax	evasion	and	empty	
excess	liquidity.	This	made	the	people	of	the	country	support	the	black	
market	and	they	started	inves&ng	in	physical	assets	which	obviously	made	
the	economy	weak.	See	Slides	29-30	how	the	case	of	demone&za&on	in	
Ghana	was	different.	
USSR	 Mikhail	Gorbachev	ordered	to	withdrew	large-ruble	bills	from	circula&on	to	
take	over	the	black	market.	The	move	didn’t	go	well	with	the	ci&zens	which	
resulted	into	a	coup	a4empt	which	brought	down	his	authority	and	the	led	
to	Soviet	breakup.	See	Slide	31	
Demone&za&on	in	other	Countries
Buharinomics - General Buhari’s
economic program marshaled out
to salvage the nation in 1984 	
Buharinomics was General Buhari’s economic program marshaled out to salvage
the nation in 1984. He summarized the objective of his economic policy (as
articulated in the 1984 budget) as follows: "To arrest the decline in the economy,
to put the economy on a proper course of recovery and solvency, and to chart a
future course for economic stability and prosperity" (West Africa, May 14, 1984). 	
	
Buharinomics was to wean the nation off consumerism and profligacy, while
channeling it towards frugality and productivity. To accomplish this, the
government was to cut down on its expenditure, engage in more efficient
restricting and controlling of foreign exchange outflow, undertake the revival of
the country's productive capacity (concentration was on agriculture), and
broaden government's revenue base.
Buharinomics - General Buhari’s economic
program marshaled out to salvage the nation
in 1984 	
	
•  The first test of Buharinomics was implemented to revive the
comatose banking industry and arrest local currency hoarding. In
April 1984, the government ordered a change in the color of the
Naira. This action was dubbed the “real coup” by unscrupulous
business men and politicians who had almost eliminated the need
for commercial banking in Nigeria by keeping their moneys under
their mattresses or by trafficking them into neighboring West
African countries.
•  This currency change, which forced all holders of the naira notes
into exchanging them for the new naira notes at commercial
banks, infused billions that had remained unaccounted for into the
banking industry and eliminated counterfeited currencies, which
had inflicted inflationary and other nefarious effects on the
economy. This measure had an immediate revitalizing effect in the
banking industry and was an unqualified success. Banks that were
close to collapsing became vibrant again, to the extent that some
of them began to hire hitherto unemployed Nigerians.
Ghana	was	a	case	of	high	money	growth		
Parallel	Exchange	Rate	in	
Developing	Countries	(ed.),	
Miguel	A	Kiguel.	et	al	,	
MacMillan
Demone&za&on	of	Ghana			
Extracts	of		Economic	Reforms	in	Ghana:	The	
Miracle	and	The	Mirage(Ed),	Ernest	Aryeetey	
et	al	,	Africa	World	Press
On	January	22,	1991,	Gorbachev	signed	a	decree	elimina&ng	all	50-rouble	and	100-rouble	
banknotes	issued	since	1961	and	restric&ng	bank	withdrawals	from	private	accounts.			
	
Under	the	presiden&al	decree,	the	Soviet	financial	system	stopped	accep&ng	banknotes	issued	
since	1961	and	started	exchanging	them	for	other	currency	denomina&ons,	as	well	as	50-
rouble	and	100-rouble	banknotes	issued	in	early	1991.	Beginning	on	January	23,	1991,	the	
government	restricted	monthly	bank	deposit	withdrawals	to	500	rubles.	
	
The	government	said	this	measure	would	freeze	unearned	incomes,	the	assets	of	speculators,	
corrupt	officials,	illegal	businesses,	and	counterfeit	money,	and	this	would	result	in	a	
condensed	money	supply	and	a	halt	on	infla&on.		
	
The	confiscatory	monetary	reform	was	conceived	by	Soviet	Minister	of	Finance	Valen&n	Pavlov.	
In	the	summer	of	1990,	Pavlov	sent	a	secret	note	to	Gorbachev	and	Nikolai	Ryzhkov,	chairman	
of	the	USSR	Council	of	Ministers,	arguing	in	favor	of	exchanging	50-rouble	and	100-rouble	
banknotes	due	to	be	issued	in	1991.	He	wrote	that	a	significant	amount	of	large-denomina&on	
Soviet	banknotes	had	been	accumulated	abroad	and	by	illegal	businesses.	
	
	
The final Soviet monetary reform began on January
22, 1991. It was named the Pavlov Reform after its
architect, Minister of Finance Valentin Pavlov, who
also became the last prime minister of the Soviet
Union.
The final Soviet monetary reform began on January 22, 1991. It was named
the Pavlov Reform after its architect, Minister of Finance Valentin Pavlov, who
also became the last prime minister of the Soviet Union.	
The standard of living in the country plummeted. By the end of 1991, the economy
of the USSR was in a disastrous state. Production continued to slump. The
average national income dwindled by 20% compared with 1990. The state budget
deficit, namely, the excess of expenditures over revenues, reached an estimated
20-30% of the GDP. The nationwide growth of the money supply was fraught with
the loss of control over the financial system and hyperinflation exceeding 50% each
month, which had the potential to paralyze the entire economy.	
	
The main consequence of the reform was the people’s loss of confidence in the
government’s actions. Many politicians and historians think that the 1991 Soviet
political and financial reforms completely undermined the people’s trust in the
Kremlin and seriously influenced subsequent developments, including the August
Coup of 1991 and the Belavezha Accords of December 1991 on dissolving the
USSR.
Demone&za&on	Shock
Date	 Close	 Shares	Traded	
Turnover	
(Rs.	Cr)	
8-Nov-16	 8543.55	 201759648	 8515.57	
9-Nov-16	 8432	 323968654	 15536.37	
10-Nov-16	 8525.75	 271196930	 12386.39	
11-Nov-16	 8296.3	 275221694	 12485.11	
15-Nov-16	 8108.45	 370298063	 17387.22	
16-Nov-16	 8111.6	 277801233	 13705.03	
17-Nov-16	 8079.95	 197183084	 8713.06	
18-Nov-16	 8074.1	 166199545	 7901.64	
21-Nov-16	 7929.1	 225608889	 9199.11	
7.19%	
7600	
7700	
7800	
7900	
8000	
8100	
8200	
8300	
8400	
8500	
8600	
1	 2	 3	 4	 5	 6	 7	 8	 9	
Dates	
Ni_y	50	:	8	Nov-21	Nov	2016
Demonetization a bold move, but could
hurt markets for 6 months: Christopher
Wood
CLSA MD Christopher Wood on Narendra
Modi’s demonetization move against black
money and impact on markets
“I think it is going to impact the economy in the next six months. But I am
hoping it is short and sharp. The biggest negative is for the real estate
market. It is negative for equities in the short term and positive for
bonds.
The question is how long will the pain remain (for equity markets)—six
months or one year? I am hoping it’s six months, but that’s just an initial
estimate. It all depends on how quickly they get the new money in place.
If the new money comes in soon, things will not be so bad. If it goes
beyond six months, the markets will be vulnerable.
The real estate sector was already doing badly, that’s hit, but then it was
already lying on the ground. Autos, cement and housing finance were
doing well, and are now going to be hit.
On the positive side, tax revenues will rise and this will help in reining in
the fiscal deficit. The other benefit will be to the bond market and
currency. The currency has been very stable and this will be a positive
for it.”
2.68%	deprecia&on	of	
INR
Impact of Demonetization on Residential
Real Estate
The luxury and high-end segments of residential real estate will also see a
major impact from this exercise, since it is another area which has seen a lot
of payments done in cash. The legal banking/financing channels have
accounted for only a small part of all transactions in this space. The
demonetization move is likely to result in luxury property prices dipping by as
much as 25-30% as sellers struggle to offload properties to generate liquidity.
This means that luxury home buyers will suddenly have a much wider
bandwidth of options to choose from.	
Ashwinder Raj Singh, CEO – Residential Services, JLL India
The	Nega&ves	
•  Extracts	of	“Black	Money”	and	India’s	Demone9za9on	Project	
							Prominent	Ci9zens	Ques9on	Delhi	Government's	Inten9ons	
										By	Prof	Prabhat	Patnaik	
•  Black	money	is	generated	through	evasion	of	taxes	on	income	from	lawful	ac&vi&es	and	money	
generated	from	illegal	ac&vi&es.	In	the	absence	of	steps	to	curb	the	genera&on	of	black	money,	
demone&za&on	is	a	fu&le	exercise,	as	it	proved	to	be	in	1978.	
•  In	the	last	5	years,	IT	raids	have	found	that	only	5-6%	of	black	money	is	kept	in	hard	cash.	
Moreover,	those	who	have	amassed	sizable	black	money	are	equipped	to	find	ways	around	
demone&za&on	by	conver&ng	their	exis&ng	cash	to	bullion,	gold	jewellery,	real	estate	and	foreign	
currencies	through	brokers	and	middle-men.	In	fact,	organized	middle-men	and	touts	have	already	
emerged	to	convert	black	money	into	white	for	a	commission.	
•  As	per	The	Indian	Sta&s&cal	Ins&tute,	Kolkata	study	done	on	behalf	of	the	Na&onal	Inves&ga&on	
Agency	(NIA),	Rs	400	crores	worth	of	fake	currency	is	in	circula&on	in	the	Indian	economy.	This	is	
only	.028%	of	Rs	14,180	billion	worth	currency	demone&sed	in	Rs	500	and	Rs	1000	notes.	
•  86%	of	currency	in	circula&on	is	in	Rs	500	and	Rs	1000	notes.	97%	of	all	transac&ons	by	volume	are	
done	in	cash.	Summary	demone&za&on	has	created	chaos	all	over	the	countr	
•  Only	about	30%	of	the	Indian	popula&on	has	access	to	the	banking	system	as	per	data	compiled	by	
the	banking	division	of	the	finance	ministry.	Moreover,	the	distribu&on	of	banks	is	highly	skewed	
with	a	third	of	all	bank	branches	in	only	60	Tier	1	and	Tier	2	ci&es/towns.	Consequently,	people	in	
rural	India	who	o_en	also	suffer	from	inadequate	informa&on	have	become	the	worst	vic&ms	of	
demone&sa&on.
The	Posi&ves	
HDFC	Bank
Which	will	be	affected	
§  Effect on parallel economy: Cash Economy to Witness Contraction
§  Effect	on	GDP:	Downward	Bias	to	GDP	Growth	
§  Lower	Money	Supply	has	a	Defla&onary	Effect	
§  Impact	on	Bond	Markets	
§  	Credit	Impact	across	Sectors	
§  Effect	on	Banks	
§  	Effect	on	Online	Transac&ons	and	alterna&ve	modes	of	payment	
§  	Bank	Deposit	Rates	to	So_en	
§  NBFC’s	Asset	Quality	Faces	Pressure	
§  Payment	Banks	to	Benefit
“This [demonetization] is a step which will
make a positive difference, if the transition
challenges get handled well by the
administration,” says Jitendra V. Singh,
Wharton emeritus professor of
management. 	
“We will need to be careful of potential
attempts to derail this positive agenda.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
echoes those sentiments. “We support the
measures to fight corruption and illicit
financial flows in India,” said a
spokesperson Gerry	Rice. “Of course, given
the large role of cash in everyday
transactions in India’s economy, the
currency transition will have to be
managed prudently to minimize possible
disruption.”
According to Mauro F. Guillen, a Wharton management
professor and director of the School’s Lauder Institute:
“important	source	of	problems”	such	as	corrup&on,	black	money,	
terrorism	and	counterfeit	money.	“The	eurozone	will	be	
elimina&ng	the	largest	euro	note.	The	U.S.	is	also	trying	to	reduce	
the	[number	of]	100	dollar	bills	in	circula&on.”	
Dr. Felix Zandman Professor
Professor of International Management
Director, The Lauder Institute
Withdrawal of Legal Tender Status for 500
and 1000 Notes: RBI Notice	
- Government of India vide their Notification no. 2652 dated November 8, 2016 have withdrawn
the Legal Tender status of 500 and 1,000 denominations of banknotes of the Mahatma
Gandhi Series issued by the Reserve Bank of India till November 8, 2016.
- Starting from November 10, 2016, members of public/corporates, business firms, societies,
trusts, etc., holding these notes can tender them at any office of the Reserve Bank or any bank
branch and obtain value thereof by credit into their respective bank accounts.
- For their immediate cash needs, these notes of value up to 4,000 per person can be
exchanged for cash over the counter of these bank branches.
Public are advised to present a valid proof of identity for availing this exchange facility.
- Value credited to their bank accounts can be freely used by issue of cheques or by remitting
through various electronic modes of transfer like NEFT, RTGS, IMPS, mobile banking, internet
banking etc.
-Cash withdrawals from bank accounts, over the bank counters, will be restricted to a limited
amount of 10,000 per day subject to an overall limit of 20,000 a week from November 9,
2016 till end of business on November 24, 2016. The limits will be reviewed after this.
- All ATMs and other cash machines will remain shut on November 9, 2016 to facilitate
recalibration. When ready, they will be reactivated and cash drawals from ATMs will be
restricted to 2,000 per day per card up to November 18, 2016 and the limits shall be raised
to 4000 per day per card from November 19, 2016.
-Any person who is unable to exchange or deposit the specified banknotes in their bank
accounts on or before December 30, 2016 shall be given an opportunity to do so at specified
offices of the Reserve Bank or such other facility until a later date as may be specified by the
Reserve Bank.
Of	the	Rs	14	lakh	crore	
worth	of	Rs	500	and	Rs	
1,000	notes	that	have	been	
scrapped,	roughly	Rs	3	lakh	
crore	are	not	likely	to	be	
exchanged	for	new	notes	
ever.	
h4p://www.forbes.com/
sites/&mworstall/
2016/11/17/indias-rs-500-
and-1000-demone&sa&on-
is-lowering-interest-rates-
and-also-infla&on/
#34686a372edf
THANK	YOU	
EVEN	AFTER	LEAKAGE		if	50%	OF	BLACK	MONEY	COULD	BE	CAPTAURED	WHICH	IS	
Rs.	2,46,000	cr.	If	you	divide	it	among	179.6	million	people	below	poverty	line	who	
lived	in	India	(	World	Bank)	,	it	works	out	Rs.	13,697.

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