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SUGAR RUSH!
   LONDON
    2012

 Perspectives on the
 Sugar Market & Brazil!

 Eddie Tofpik
Member of the Society of Technical Analysts.
Market Technicians Association (affiliate)


London – 16TH OCTOBER 2012
…so what does it
   look like…

     Now!
Um Nó na Madeira!           A Knot in the
                               Wood!
                            (Gann Fan?)

                So what now? Do we carry on
                down after the Knot or move
                         back up?
Let’s clear up & Zoom Out
the chart to get a better
          view!
Now let’s take a closer look
again!
…and label the items spoken
     about properly!
…and label the items spoken
     about properly!
Now let us look at very
recent action & the future!
Let’s add some very recent
   Daily action points!
…now for the immediate
future (and a bit longer
         ahead)
…now for the immediate
future (and a bit longer
         ahead)
…now for the immediate
future (and a bit longer
         ahead)
…now for a bit longer
      ahead!
…now for a bit longer
      ahead!
All seem to point lower…
     …except for …
All seem to point lower…
     …except for …
One final thing of note…
…and at the risk of repeating
Is it again a potential
        target…
…or another ‘knot’?
I pause now for any
     questions?
U. S. Dollar

     vs.

Brazilian Real
…from last time
  Back in May
 In New York!
…so what does it
   look like…

     Now!
Let’s take in all that has happened!
Let’s take in all that has happened!
  Let’s update the Daily Chart as
Let’s now zoom in for a closer
    look at recent action!
Now let’s add some recent analysis
             as well!
One word of caution!
One word of caution!
The chances of a False Break
       are increasing!
I pause now for any questions.
Hedging your input costs
• Hedging your output income is only part of the
  story…
• …sure you could also hedge your FX exposure…
  USDBRL, etc…
• …but look at your input costs!

• Fertilizer costs…hedging?
• Its behind seed technology & crop protection – should
  it be?
• W hen prices rise, reducing fertiliser use &
  keeping yields the same maintains profitability
   – what happens when prices stall or fall?
• Great leaps in seed technology & precision
  farming in recent years – fertilizer importance
  decreased.
   – should it therefore be ‘unhedged’?
…from last time
  Back in May
 In New York!
So what happened afterwards?
…and more recently?
Let’s look close up at recent action!
I am mindful that time
       is short

        so…..
Here is the final bit!
This Publication is issued by ADM Investor Services International Limited (‘ADMISI’
which is regulated by The Financial Services Authority and is a member of The London
Stock Exchange. References to ‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’ in this Publication shall mean
ADMISI unless otherwise stated. This Publication was prepared and distributed by us
for information purposes only, and may contain information, advice, recommendations
and/or opinions, which may be used as the basis for trading undertaken by us and our
officers, employees, associated and/or affiliated companies. This Publication should
not be construed as solicitation, nor as offering advice for the purposes of the
purchase or sale of any derivative, security or investment. The information and
opinions contained within this Publication were considered by us to be valid when
published. This Publication may also contain information that has been provided to us
by third parties. The source of such information may be disclosed within this
Publication where relevant. Whilst we consider we have taken all reasonable steps to
ensure the information is correct, we do not under any circumstances whatsoever,
warrant the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any person placing
reliance upon this Publication to undertake trading, does so entirely at their own risk,
and accordingly, we do not accept any liability as a result, whether direct or indirectly
incurred. Derivatives and securities markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected
price movements, and past performance is not necessarily a guide to future
performance. Currency movements may also have an unfavourable, as well as
favourable effect on the value of the underlying investment and/or assets. Investments
and/or strategies discussed herein, may not be suitable for all investors. Accordingly,
if any person reading this Publication has doubts about their particular suitability, they
should consult an independent investment adviser.
Eddie’s Crayons
M Y M ONTHLY FX & C OMMODITES
R EPORT




             +44 20 7390 2952 (24 Hours)
               eddie.tofpik@admisi.com

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Perspectives on the Sugar Market & Brazil

  • 1. SUGAR RUSH! LONDON 2012 Perspectives on the Sugar Market & Brazil! Eddie Tofpik Member of the Society of Technical Analysts. Market Technicians Association (affiliate) London – 16TH OCTOBER 2012
  • 2.
  • 3. …so what does it look like… Now!
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Um Nó na Madeira! A Knot in the Wood! (Gann Fan?) So what now? Do we carry on down after the Knot or move back up?
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Let’s clear up & Zoom Out the chart to get a better view!
  • 12. Now let’s take a closer look again!
  • 13. …and label the items spoken about properly!
  • 14. …and label the items spoken about properly!
  • 15. Now let us look at very recent action & the future!
  • 16. Let’s add some very recent Daily action points!
  • 17. …now for the immediate future (and a bit longer ahead)
  • 18. …now for the immediate future (and a bit longer ahead)
  • 19. …now for the immediate future (and a bit longer ahead)
  • 20. …now for a bit longer ahead!
  • 21. …now for a bit longer ahead!
  • 22. All seem to point lower… …except for …
  • 23. All seem to point lower… …except for …
  • 24. One final thing of note… …and at the risk of repeating
  • 25.
  • 26. Is it again a potential target… …or another ‘knot’?
  • 27. I pause now for any questions?
  • 28. U. S. Dollar vs. Brazilian Real
  • 29. …from last time Back in May In New York!
  • 30.
  • 31. …so what does it look like… Now!
  • 32. Let’s take in all that has happened!
  • 33. Let’s take in all that has happened! Let’s update the Daily Chart as
  • 34. Let’s now zoom in for a closer look at recent action!
  • 35. Now let’s add some recent analysis as well!
  • 36.
  • 37. One word of caution!
  • 38. One word of caution! The chances of a False Break are increasing!
  • 39. I pause now for any questions.
  • 40. Hedging your input costs • Hedging your output income is only part of the story… • …sure you could also hedge your FX exposure… USDBRL, etc… • …but look at your input costs! • Fertilizer costs…hedging? • Its behind seed technology & crop protection – should it be? • W hen prices rise, reducing fertiliser use & keeping yields the same maintains profitability – what happens when prices stall or fall? • Great leaps in seed technology & precision farming in recent years – fertilizer importance decreased. – should it therefore be ‘unhedged’?
  • 41. …from last time Back in May In New York!
  • 42. So what happened afterwards?
  • 44. Let’s look close up at recent action!
  • 45.
  • 46. I am mindful that time is short so…..
  • 47. Here is the final bit!
  • 48. This Publication is issued by ADM Investor Services International Limited (‘ADMISI’ which is regulated by The Financial Services Authority and is a member of The London Stock Exchange. References to ‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’ in this Publication shall mean ADMISI unless otherwise stated. This Publication was prepared and distributed by us for information purposes only, and may contain information, advice, recommendations and/or opinions, which may be used as the basis for trading undertaken by us and our officers, employees, associated and/or affiliated companies. This Publication should not be construed as solicitation, nor as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any derivative, security or investment. The information and opinions contained within this Publication were considered by us to be valid when published. This Publication may also contain information that has been provided to us by third parties. The source of such information may be disclosed within this Publication where relevant. Whilst we consider we have taken all reasonable steps to ensure the information is correct, we do not under any circumstances whatsoever, warrant the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance upon this Publication to undertake trading, does so entirely at their own risk, and accordingly, we do not accept any liability as a result, whether direct or indirectly incurred. Derivatives and securities markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price movements, and past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Currency movements may also have an unfavourable, as well as favourable effect on the value of the underlying investment and/or assets. Investments and/or strategies discussed herein, may not be suitable for all investors. Accordingly, if any person reading this Publication has doubts about their particular suitability, they should consult an independent investment adviser.
  • 49. Eddie’s Crayons M Y M ONTHLY FX & C OMMODITES R EPORT +44 20 7390 2952 (24 Hours) eddie.tofpik@admisi.com