DATE: 1st July 2022 GEOGRAPHICAL ZONE: Asia EVENT: TCI /MOC Asian Chapter Summer Conference 2022. ORGANIZERS: TCI Network, Microeconomics of Compettitiveness (MOC) from Harvard Business School, and Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI ). TOPIC: 2026 and the Future of Collaboration. KEY SPEAKER: Professor Michael Enright, Northeastern University, Founder and Member Board of Advisors, TCI Network.

1. The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on
the move to a circular economy: case
of oil-exporting countries
Dr. Erjan Akhmedov, Assistant Professor,
Kazakh-British Technical University,
Almaty, Kazakhstan
Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 1 July 2022
TCI / MOC Asian Chapter Summer Conference 2022
Building Our Resilience in the Global Disruption:
Asian Models and Cases

2. About Us
The Kazakh-British Technical University (KBTU) was established by the
Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2001. Now it is the leading
higher educational institution in the country. The system of bachelors’,
masters’ and PhD programs at KBTU meets international quality
standards, which is confirmed by IQAA, ABET, ACBSP, KazSEE. Several
educational programs have professional accreditations as CFA, CIMA,
ACCA, etc.
Faculties: Geology and Exploration, Energy and Oil and Gas Industry,
Information Technology, Mathematics and Cybernetics, Business School,
International School of Economics, Kazakhstan Maritime Academy,
Chemical Engineering, etc.
KBTU cooperates with the best universities of the world, including the
University of London, Harvard Business School, Ecole des Mines de
Saint-Étienne (France), Manchester University and many others.
The KBTU Business School teaches undergraduate and graduate
programs and is accredited by the Accreditation Council for Business
School and Programs (ACBSP).

3. Introduction
• The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected
health and disrupted economic life around the Globe.
• Unlike other parts of the World (the EU especially),
circular economy (CE) efforts became largely forgotten
in the oil-exporting countries (OECs) during the
pandemic (with some exceptions).
• CE remains a path the OECs will have to follow to
make their economies more resilient and protect the
environment.
• More time is required to properly analyze the impact of
pandemic.
• There is a need to revisit the efforts of the OECs in this
direction.

4. Introduction
• Benefits of a more CE have not been recognized as a
major economic opportunity in these countries.
• Despite all economic troubles, there were positive sides
as well: the environmental degradation was temporarily
discontinued.
• This research is a part of a bigger one aimed at studying
challenges of transitioning to a CE in the OECs.

5. Major OECs
The countries below exported the highest dollar value worth of
crude oil during 2020 (more than 70%).
1. Saudi Arabia: US$113.7 billion (17.2% of world oil export)
2. Russia: $72.6 billion (11%)
3. Iraq: $50.8 billion (7.7%)
4. United States: $50.3 billion (7.6%)
5. United Arab Emirates: $47.9 billion (7.2%)
6. Canada: $47.6 billion (7.2%)
7. Kuwait: $28.3 billion (4.3%)
8. Nigeria: $25.2 billion (3.8%)
9. Kazakhstan: $23.7 billion (3.6%)
10. Norway: $22.7 billion (3.4%)
Source: https://www.worldstopexports.com/
The countries listed above are different in terms of their ecological
footprint and the level of economic development.

6. Countries by Ecological Footprint
Source: WWF

7. Importance of the Topic
• The OECs have the largest ecological footprint. So, it
is logical to pay special attention to these countries;
• It also is logical to consider the OECs separately as
they have a lot in common;
• Moreover, there is a widespread misbelief that CE is
dangerous for the OECs as it can potentially bring the
reduction of their oil and gas revenues and living
standards;
• The COVID-19 pandemic has largely discontinued the
efforts towards transitioning to CE in most of the
countries under consideration.
• The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected
revenues of these countries.

8. Methodology
This research has the following main steps:
• Collecting information through the relevant literature
review;
• Collecting information through in-depth semi-structured
one-to-one interviews;
• Transcribing and cross-checking the answers;
• Analyzing the answers and the information collected
through the literature review;
• Summarizing the collected information and drawing
conclusions.
The authors interviewed the group of 23 individuals working
for government agencies, international and non-governmental
organizations and academia. The number of respondents was
limited by the nature of the topic. We tried our best to ensure
proper geographic representation of respondents.

9. Methodology
The respondents were requested to
i. list and describe the main challenges (including pandemic-
related) the OECs face in transitioning to circular economy;
ii. address the reasons for these challenges and
iii. suggest the ways to respond them.
The answers on the 1st and 2nd questions were cross-
checked to ensure their trustworthiness. The answers on
the 3rd question were not cross-checked as they
represent rather personal opinions. However, the
respondents were asked to give their opinions on
potential solutions proposed by others. Several follow-up
calls were made in order to clarify and ascertain the
information.
Please note that this is a qualitative research, so the data
obtained are non-numerical.

10. Points to Note
• Forthcoming end of the oil era is unavoidable and will
for a large extent discontinue oil revenues in these
countries.
• The OECs already have the largest ecological
footprint.
• So, the path towards transitioning to CE is
unavoidable.
• Transitioning to CE will improve general health of the
World’s population. This will make the World more
resilient to future disruptions.
• In addition to clear environmental benefits, CE offers
multiple long term economic benefits as well, i.e.,
encourages economic diversification and reduces the
need for imports.

11. Major Challenges
• Cheap and abundant energy. As a result, many in the
OECs do not feel the real need to transfer to CE.
• Lack of financing. Even in the developed OECs.
• Imperfection of the legal and regulatory framework and
control over its implementation. Enforcement is often
the biggest problem.
• Harsh climatic conditions in many OECs.
• Shortage of qualified and motivated personnel able to
plan and implement CE policies.
• Lack of useful technologies.
• Loosing repair skills.

12. Pandemic-Related Challenges
• The pandemic diverted attention of governments and
general public from the topic.
• Short-term market shocks: March 2020 Russia–Saudi
Arabia oil price war or the period of negative oil prices
in April 2020.
• Falling oil prices caused by drastic drop in oil demand
around the World.
• Falling investments in CE projects.
• Global economic contraction and loss of revenues.
• Disruption of global supply chains.
• Negative effect of COVID-19 on the activities of
environmental NGOs.
• Tons of used PPEs, packaging materials, medical
waste, etc.

13. Pandemic-Related Challenges

14. Reasons for Challenges
• Cheap inputs. Energy prices in the OECs are lower than
in other countries
Average octane 95 gasoline price per liter on 20 June 2020, US$
Kuwait – 0.34, Nigeria – 0.41, KSA – 0.62, Russia – 0.91, China
– 1.49, Cambodia – 1.59, Italy – 2.17.
Source: https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/
• Cheap goods. Costs of repairs is comparable with the
cost of brand-new items.
• Poor population in some OECs.
• Low educational level in some OECs, which results in
low awareness.
• Mentality. Pursuit of luxurious lifestyle in many OECs.
• Skepticism towards CE.

15. Policy Recommendations
1. There is a need to safeguard the pre-pandemic CE
momentum and activity. It is important to protect the
progress already made, maintain the momentum, and
avoid future delays.
2. There is a need to re-assess the situation to
understand what is needed to be changed keeping in
mind that the pre-COVID agenda remains highly
relevant.
3. The current cycle of high oil prices is creating the right
moment for investments.
4. There is a need to retain and promote those business
practices emerged during the pandemic, which are in
line with CE principles (telecommuting, online grocery
shopping, etc.).

16. Policy Recommendations
5. Increasing public awareness remains a cornerstone
for the efforts towards transitioning towards the CE.
6. Proper information sharing among the OECs.
Resilience is best achieved not by isolation!
7. Government intervention in encouraging and
supporting CE efforts to be continued. State COVID-
19 recovery programs to include CE elements.

17. Conclusions
This topic is very serios and has not received due
attention of scientific community yet. This situation forms
the strong motivation for further work in this area.
Also, as mentioned earlier, this research is a part of a
bigger one aimed at studying challenges of transitioning
to the CE in the OECs.
Our next steps are
- increasing the number of respondents though the
answers received so far are quite in line with each
other.
- in-depth studying of drivers of and barriers to
transitioning towards CE in selected OECs.
- finding new ways to promote CE in the OECs.

18. Thank you!

19. List of Respondents
1. 4 former and current government executives (Azeri,
Kazakh, Qatar and Russian).
2. 4 representatives of academia (Canada, the UAE, the
USA, the UK).
3. 4 representatives of environmental NGOs (Canada,
Norway, Kazakhstan and Russia).
4. 3 staff members of international organizations (UN).
5. 2 senior managers of international law firms.
6. 4 representatives of international financial institutions
(ADB, EBRD, IDB and WB).
7. 2 senior managers of international consulting
companies.

20. Research Limitations
• Small sample size. The situation is that the overall
number of market players is limited. Ideally, there is a
need to increase the number of respondents up to 100
though the answers received so far are quite in line
with each other. Another consideration is that this is a
qualitative research where sample size is generally
less relevant than in qualitative type of research;
• Self-reported data: This limitation was addressed
through cross-checking the answers and using
literature sources where possible;
The limitations above do not downplay the cognitive
value of the research, but rather serve as an initial point
of departure for further studies.