2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement - presentation by Doug Horner, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance - November 26, 2013

1. 2013-14 Second Quarter
Fiscal Update and
Economic Statement
November 26, 2013

2. Overview
• Turning the corner
• Challenges remain
• Fastest growing province
• Floods
• Bitumen bubble is back

3. Booming Population

4. Flood Costs
• June 24 - Floods
• June 27 - $1 B commitment
• November 25 - $764 M
supplementary estimate

5. Economic Strength
• Solid foundation
• Strong growth
• Net asset position

6. Economic Strength
Population
24.3%
10.8%
Employment
28.2%
14.4%
32.9%
Real GDP
19.8%
Alberta
Growth in select indicators 2002-2012
Canada

7. Employment and Migration
thousands
Employment Growth (q/q)
Net Migration
50
40
30
20
10
(10)
(20)
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1

8. Q2 - Actual Results
Operational Plan
6 Month
Estimate
Q2 Actual
•
•
•
•
$19 B
$19 B
$15 M
$58 M deficit




Operational Revenue
Operational Expense
Disaster/Emergency Assistance
Operational Deficit/Surplus
$20.4 B
$19.3 B
$ 458 M
$1.1 B surplus
Fiscal year end operational balance range:
$250 M surplus to $250 M deficit

9. Oil Price Differential
$110
100
$15
90
$10
80
$30
$40
70
60
50
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
WTI
Jul-13
WCS
Oct-13

10. Market Access
Market access the biggest factor affecting
oil revenue
•
•
•
•
Opening new markets
Washington D.C. visits
Asia
Canadian Energy Strategy

11. Flood Costs
Flood spending forecast
• $4.3 B this year
• $3.1 B federal government
• $1.2 B Alberta government

12. Flood Costs
$764 M for initial requirement to support
Albertans, businesses and communities.
Cash cards, First Nations housing,
purchasing homes in floodway,
Hand-up Plan for small business,
etc.
$139 M
$625 M
Roads, bridges, erosion repair,
etc.

13. Revised Budget Forecast
Budget Estimate - Operational Plan
Revised Operational Forecast
Operational Revenue
$37.7 B
 $42.7 B
Operational Expense
$38.1 B
 $42.7 B
Operational Deficit
$451 M
 Operational Surplus $15 M
Budget Estimate - Capital Plan
Revised Capital Plan Forecast
Capital Plan Spending $5.2 B
 $5.7 B
*Budget Balance Sheet Forecast
*Revised Balance Sheet Forecast
Contingency Account $0.7 B
Heritage Fund and other funds $18.5 B
Net Assets $42.3 B
 $2.6 B
- $18.5 B
 $42.5 B
*at March 31, 2014

14. Questions
www.finance.alberta.ca
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