2. Retail
Stable development
SEKm Q2 Q3 Q4 Q/Q
• Deposit margins pressure
Net interest income 3 404 3 447 3 407 -40
Net commissions 1 248 1 269 1 320 +51
• Repricing lending
Total income 5 138 5 209 5 107 -102
Total expenses 2 345 2 357 2 432 +75 • Increased sales of funds
Profit before
impairments
2 793 2 852 2 675 -177 support commissions
Credit impairments 100 69 102 +33
• Solid asset quality
ROE, % 24.6 24.4 26.2
C/I ratio 0.46 0.45 0.48
2
3. Large Corporates & Institutions
Improved profitability
SEKm Q2 Q3 Q4 Q/Q
• Continued growth in Large
Net interest income 825 852 824 -28
- of which LC/FI* 666 689 729 +40
Corporates NII
Net commissions 346 379 443 +64
Net gains and • High activity debt capital
316 341 412 +71
losses
markets and corporate
Total income 1 499 1 581 1 703 +122
Expenses excl. finance (Norway)
602 638 612 -26
variable staff costs
Variable staff costs 118 66 71 +5 • Equities continue to be slow
Profit before
779 877 1 020 +143
Impairments
Credit impairments 54 -35 152 +187 • Credit impairment – one large
exposure
ROE, % 9.8 14.2 17.5
C/I 0.48 0.45 0.40
* Large Corporates/Financial Institutions
3
4. Baltic Banking
Slow banking environment
SEKm Q2 Q3 Q4 Q/Q
• Lower Euribor affected NII
Net interest income 870 755 761 +6
Net commissions 378 360 351 -9
• Small lending growth in EUR
Total income 1 430 1 273 1 275 +2
Total expenses 588 553 631 +78 • One-off in Lithuania SEK -35m
Profit before
impairments
842 720 644 -76 affecting commissions
Credit impairments -204 -18 -329 -311
• Seasonally higher expenses
ROE, % 14.8 11.0 13.7
C/I 0.41 0.43 0.49 • Recoveries continued
• Further efficiency focus needed
4
5. Group results
Strong quarter
SEKm Q3 Q4 2011 2012 • One-offs affecting quarter
5 263 5 465 19 014 21 188
Net interest income
- Net gains in Treasury
Net commission income 2 381 2 504 9 597 9 636
- Tax gain of SEK 505m
Net gains and losses 568 752 1 584 2 534
9 051 9 491 34 045 36 620
• Stable NII Q/Q
Total income
Total expenses 3 998 4 287 18 399 16 949
- Shrinking deposit margins
Profit before impairments 5 053 5 204 15 646 19 671
Impairment of tangible assets 102 199 174 466
- Repricing
Credit impairments 204 11 -1 911 687 - Treasury effects
Tax 1 220 640 3 669 4 039
Profit for the period 3 511 4 340 11 744 14 438
• Higher market related income
Return on equity, % 14.1 16.7 12.2 14.4 • Seasonally higher cost
Cost-income ratio 0.44 0.45 0.54 0.46
• Stable asset quality in home
markets
5
6. Focus 2013
Focus on customer and efficiency
Russia &
Ektornet Other
Ukraine
Customer IT
service investments
Expenses Expenses
2012 2013
6
7. Capital situation
Capital – continued accumulation
%
Common Equity Tier 1 ratio
20
17.4 • Management’s view is that 13-
18
16
15.7
14.3
15.4 15% CET1-ratio is required
14
12
• Capital efficiency focus remains
10
8
• IRB-A application filed
6
4
• New dividend policy: 75% of the
2 profit for the year (previously 50)
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Basel 2 Basel 3 incl IAS 19
7
8. Risk highlights
Stable asset quality
Credit impairments
(SEKm)
Q3 Q4 2012 • Continued high credit quality in
Retail 69 102 295 Sweden
LC&I -35 152 185
• Net recoveries Baltic Banking
Baltic Banking -18 -329 -685
Estonia 2 -242 -343 • Exit costs Ukraine continue
Latvia 8 86 -124
Lithuania -28 -173 -218 SEK bn
35 Impaired loans
31.7
Group Functions &
188 86 892 30
Other
25
Russia 28 -30 -43
20
Ukraine 140 117 915 14.0
15
Other 20 -1 20 10
Swedbank Group 204 11 687 5
0
Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12
8
9. Digital channels
High ambition to make it easy for our customers
Customer contacts by channel 2012 Mobile Bank Sweden: log-ins per month
25 000 000
2%
5% +150% Y/Y
(7%)
20 000 000
26% (9%)
15 000 000
68% (83%) 10 000 000
5 000 000
0
Internetbank Mobilebank Telephonebank Branches Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Dec 2012
9
19. Liquidity and funding
Senior unsecured debt strategy
• Limited need given Swedbank’s balance sheet structure
• Secure OC
• Fund liquidity reserves
Senior unsecured debt maturity profile House price sensitivity of the cover pool
Senior unsecured debt 40%
SEKbn
60 35%
30% OC, Q412
25%
Over-collateralisation
20%
40
15%
10%
5%
20
0%
-5%
-10%
0 -15%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018- 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% -50%
Source: Swedbank, Dec 31, 2012, nominal amounts House price drop
19
20. Liquidity and funding
Liquidity reserve
According to the template defined by the Swedish Bankers' Association
SEKm
Cash and holdings in central banks 130 984
Deposits in other banks available overnight 1 500
Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks or multilateral development banks 22 666
Securities issued or guaranteed by municipalities or Public sector entities 389
Covered bonds 58 381
- Issued by other institutions 58 381
- Own issued
Securities issued by non-financial corporates
Securities issued by financial corporates (excl. covered bonds) 2 340
Other
Total1 216 260
Additional liquid assets, Group2 57 875
1 95% of the securities in the liquidity reserve per Q4 2012 are rated AAA
2 87% of the additional liquid assets fulfill the Liquidity Reserve definition by the Swedish Bankers’ Association except
from that they are held outside the Treasury department.
Source: Swedbank Fact book, Dec 31, 2012
20
21. Liquidity and funding
Prolonged survival horizon*
SEKbn
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 365
360
Days forward
* For definition see Swedbank factbook
Source: Swedbank Dec 31, 2012
21
22. Liquidity and funding
Conservative liquidity levels
• Short-term funding mainly a tool for cash management
• More than 12 months pre-funded
SEKbn
400 400
350 350
Additional pledgeable
300 300
and/or liquid assets
Next 12-month term
250 250
1 funding maturities
Liquidity reserve,
200 securities 200
CP / CDs and net
150 150
Liquidity reserve,1 interbank funding,
central bank deposits, SEKm
100 SEKm 100
50 50
0 0
Source: Swedbank Dec 31, 2012 1 As defined by the Swedish Bankers’ Association
22
23. Liquidity and funding
Limited need for USD-funding
• USD-funding need covered for more than 12 months
• Issued USD 1.5bn of covered bonds (144a) YTD 2012
SEKbn
180
Interest-bearing
160 securities
140 Lending to the public
120
Loans to credit
institutions
100
Cash and balances with
80 central banks
60 Deposits and borrowings
from the public
40
Amounts owed to credit
institutions
20
Debt securities in issue
0
Assets Liabilities
Source: Swedbank Fact book, Dec 31, 2012
23
24. Liquidity and funding
Remaining government guaranteed debt
• Exited the programme on 30 April 2010
• No issuance under the programme since summer 2009
• Remaining outstanding debt of SEK 30bn maturing during 2013 and 2014 of which SEK
10bn matured in January 2013
Nom, SEKbn Maturity profile as per Q4 2012
40
JPY
CHF
20
USD
SEK
EUR
0
2013 2014
Source: Swedbank Dec 31, 2012
24
25. Liquidity and funding
Asset encumbrance
Distribution by type of liability and asset
Central banks Debt
and instruments Securities
Government supranational issued by issued by
debt debt Covered credit corporate and Mortgage
SEKm instruments instruments bonds institutions other issuers ABS loans Cash Total
Central bank funding
Intraday settlement collateral 1) 2 12 369 12 371
Repurchase agreements 2) 12 992 13 496 26 488
Derivative collateral 3) 162 862 14 120 15 144
Covered bonds 4) 516 749 516 749
Accrued interest of assets in
the cover pool 2 330 2 330
Other 5) 366 366
Total 13 156 26 727 519 079 14 486 573 448
Financial assets pledged for insurance policy holders 103 083
Additional assets available for secured funding 6)
Central banks Debt
and instruments Securities
Government supranational issued by issued by
debt debt Covered credit corporate and Mortgage
SEKm instruments instruments bonds institutions other issuers ABS loans Cash Total
Securities 7, 8) 26 883 3 265 84 045 11 393 8 203 1 059 134 848
Cover pool over
collateralisation incl. accr.
interest 4) 181 828 181 828
Cover pool eligible assets 9) 11 608 11 608
Total 26 883 3 265 84 045 11 393 8 203 1 059 193 436 328 284
1) Pledged securities on balance sheet. 6) Assets not currently encumbered.
2) Repoed securities on balance sheet. 7) Reversed repos are included.
3) Collateral posted under CSA agreements, gross (3-year, SEKm, High: 21 572, 8) All type of securities, including securities non pledgeable at central banks, of
Low : 10 945, Average: 13 644). w hich 82% are rated AAA, 2% are rated below A- and 8% are not rated.
4) Nominal amount excluding accrued interest. 9) Type of loans; Residential 84.4%, Forestry & Agriculture 15.3%, Commercial
5) Collateral pledged in securities lending activities and w ith exchanges 0.3%.
Source: Swedbank Facts Q4 2012
25
26. Swedish housing and mortgage market
Swedish mortgage market
• No securitization (on balance sheet), no sub-prime market, no 3rd party origination, no buy-to-let
market
• 70% home ownership1
• Rental market is regulated
• Transparent credit information (credit information agency, www.uc.se)
– Publicly available information regarding income, debt, payment track record etc
• Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations including stress test of higher interest
rate
• Very limited debt forgiveness possibilities (full recourse)
• Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system
1 Source: Boverket, 2011
26
31. Credit portfolio – Retail
Corporate Retail portfolio will drive capital efficiency
Total portfolio SEK 231bn Segments excl. Swedbank Volume Secured
Mortgage and Swedbank Finance (SEKbn) (%)
Agriculture 6.0 82
Manufacturing 11.3 70
Swedbank Mortgage Public sector and utilities 4.7 86
AB
94 Construction 4.4 85
Leasing (Swedbank 113
Finance AB) Retail 8.8 89
Other Transportation 2.0 78
24
Shipping 0.1 95
Hotels and restaurants 3.0 90
Information & communication 0.9 49
Finance and insurance 3.3 79
Property management 54.9 96
Professional service 6.7 59
Other 6.4 61
Total 113 86
31
32. Credit portfolio – Large Corporates & Institutions
Shipping and Offshore
Shipping and offshore SEKbn
0.4%
-3.6%
30
•
26
Lending exposure to shipping and offshore sector of 24 24 25
24
SEK 24.2bn plus unutilised commitments of SEK 4
20
7.9bn 6
– Portfolio duration 4-5y
10
– Average fleet age 7y 14
– Strong employment profiles
0
Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12
Offshore Tanker Other
Shipping and Offshore Portfolio by Subsegment Shipping and Offshore Portfolio by Currency
RORO 1.7
Container 1.0
JPY
Dry bulk 0.7 Q4-12
Gas (LNG/LPG) 1.2 Q3-12
Q4-12
Crude oil 0.7 NOK
Product 2.4 Q3-12
Chemical 0.2 USD
Floating production 1.9
Accommodation 1.2
3.6 EUR
Supply
Oil service 1.9
Drilling & exploration 7.0 SEK
Cruise 0.5
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 2 4 6 8
32
33. Credit portfolio – Agriculture Sweden
• Segmentation Definitions
– Corporate Agriculture: Business that derive their
Private:
main income from Agricultural activities Residential
– Private Investments: Private individuals who own 20%
the agricultural properties for living or investment
purposes
Agriculture
45%
• Lending to the Agriculture Industry 62.9bn
– Corporate Agriculture: (58%)
Private:
• Agriculture 45% Forestry
• Forestry 13% 22%
– Private Investments (42%)
• Residents: 20%
Foresty
• Forestry: 22% 13%
33
34. ICAAP
2012 ICAAP Scenario
– Deep recession without recovery
Triggers Outcome
• Europe enters into deep • Sharp GDP drop with no
recession recovery (10-15% from 2011
level)
• Limited possibilities for fiscal
stimulus • Severe drop in house prices
• European bank runs (25-37% from 2011 level)
• Credit contraction • Depreciated EUR and
appreciated SEK
• Closed funding markets
• Devaluation in Latvia and
Lithuania
34
35. ICAAP
High capitalisation even in extremely stressed scenario
• Revenue decrease 31 percent
• Credit impairments SEK 64bn over 5 year
• Scenario effects on Core Tier 1 ratio -165bp
• Well above 12% Core Tier 1 ratio at low point even in extremely
stressed scenario in new regulatory environment
35
36. ICAAP
2012 ICAAP dcenario
– Deep recession without recovery
105 GDP - Index 105 Real Estate prices - index
100 95
95 85
90 75
85 65
80 55
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania
3.0% Interest rates – 3m 14 FX scenario
2.5% 12
10
2.0%
8
1.5% 6
1.0% 4
2
0.5%
0
0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Euribor Stibor USD/SEK EUR/SEK GBP/SEK
36
37. ICAAP
2012 ICAAP – Main scenario results
SEK bn Net Interest Income
• NII decreases by 39% throughout the 30
20.7
scenario 20
10 12.6
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
• Credit Impairments total SEK 64bn
Credit impairments
over the scenario period SEK bn
30 23.4
20
10
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-10
• RWA decreases due to significant SEKbn RWA incl. reg effects
credit impairments and deleveraging 700
600
500 414
400
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
37
38. ICAAP
2012 ICAAP – Income statement
Total
Income statement (SEKbn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2012 - 2016
Total net interest income 20.7 19.5 16.7 14.2 13.0 12.6 75.9
Total income 34.7 31.8 34.0 25.4 24.3 24.1 139.6
Total expenses 20.9 17.6 18.7 18.0 18.0 17.8 90.1
Profit before credit losses 13.8 14.2 15.3 7.4 6.3 6.2 49.5
Credit losses -1.8 8.2 23.4 17.4 9.3 5.4 63.6
Operating profit 15.5 6.1 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.9 -14.1
Appropriations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tax 3.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8
Profit for the year 11.8 4.5 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.6 -16.0
Minority interest 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Profit for the year attr to shareholders 11.5 4.4 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.6 -16.1
Dividend 5.8 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5
Profit after tax, min. int. & dividend 5.7 2.2 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.3 -18.6
38
39. ICAAP
2012 ICAAP – Credit impairments
EAD 2011 Acc. loss ratio
Credit impairments (%) (SEKbn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2012 - 2016
Total 1,384.4 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.5 4.6
of which LC & I 309.8 0.5 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.6 5.4
Retail 950.8 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 3.2
Estonia 52.5 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.7 6.6
Latvia 30.6 2.7 6.1 5.6 4.4 4.6 15.0
Lithuania 31.1 2.4 4.1 3.0 2.4 2.2 9.5
Russia & Ukraine 9.6 5.2 20.9 10.5 3.7 1.6 41.9
The accumulated losses constitute SEK 63.6bn.
Credit impairments in LC&I and Retail constitute 74% of total accumulated credit impairments
Credit impairments LC & I and Retail EAD 2011 Acc. loss ratio
(SEKbn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(%) 2012 - 2016
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 25.8 0.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 3.7
Manufacturing 39.3 1.0 2.6 2.5 1.2 0.5 6.7
Public sector and utilities 11.6 0.6 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.4 5.3
Construction 15.1 1.2 3.4 3.4 1.9 0.4 8.5
Retail 22.8 1.3 4.6 5.4 4.0 2.4 14.0
Transportation 8.6 2.1 8.2 5.7 3.4 1.2 16.1
Shipping 31.2 0.4 8.5 6.2 0.6 0.5 14.4
Hotels and restaurants 3.8 2.7 6.3 6.3 3.7 0.7 15.0
Information and communication 5.0 0.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.5 4.9
Finance and insurance 20.4 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 2.8
Property management 125.1 0.9 3.9 3.8 2.0 1.0 9.6
Cooperative housing associations 75.4 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.8
Other corporate lending 75.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 3.9
Professional services 14.9 1.0 2.7 3.2 2.1 0.7 8.0
Bank 128.2 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 3.9
Private 657.8 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.2
Total 1,260.5 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 3.7
39
40. ICAAP
2012 ICAAP Main adverse scenario results
Capital assessment
RWA & Capital (SEKbn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RWA 492.3 489.5 504.1 433.9 395.2 365.0
RWA inc 15% mortgage riskweight * 565.3 552.2 557.1 482.4 442.6 414.4
RWA inc regulatory effects ** 588.1 575.0 557.1 482.4 442.6 414.4
Core Tier 1 77.3 79.7 62.1 52.4 49.5 49.8
Core Tier 1 inc regulatory effects ** 73.6 76.0 62.1 52.4 49.5 49.8
Total Capital base 93.2 88.3 70.9 61.5 57.2 55.2
Capital assessment (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Core Tier 1 ratio 15.7 16.3 12.3 12.1 12.5 13.6
Core Tier 1 ratio inc 15% mortgage riskweight * 13.7 14.4 11.1 10.9 11.2 12.0
Core Tier 1 ratio inc. regulatory effects ** 12.5 13.2 11.1 10.9 11.2 12.0
Total capital ratio inc. 15% mortgage riskweight * 16.5 16.0 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.3
* The effect of a 15% average riskweight on the Swedish Mortgage portfolio
** Includes assessed effects of Basel 3, IAS 19 and changed mortgage risk-weights
40
41. The Riksbank's Financial Stability Report 2012:2
• Swedbank has the overall strongest capitalisation among
Swedish peers
• Swedbank has the strongest liquidity metrics among Swedish
peers,
• Swedbank is the most reciliant bank in a stressed scenario, only
Swedbank makes a profit every year of the stress
• Swedbank is the transparency leader
All subsequent slides are taken from the
Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report 2012:2
41
42. Core Tier 1 capital ratios according to Basel III
Percent
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Handels- Nordea SEB Swedbank
banken
March 2012 June 2012 September 2012
Chart 1:13 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
43. Adjusted Leverage ratio
December 2011, per cent
UBS
Intesa Sanpaolo
HSBC
RBS
St. Chartered
Erste Group Bank
BBVA
Barclays
BNP Paribas
UniCredit
Credit Agricole
Société Générale
Lloyds
Raiffeisen
Swedbank
SEB
DNB
Credit Suisse
Commerzbank
Danske Bank
Nordea
Deutsche Bank
Handelsbanken
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Chart 4:10 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
44. Level of loan losses in the main scenario, percent
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Handels- Nordea SEB Swedbank Totalt
banken
2013 2014 2015
Chart 5:3 Source: The Riksbank
45. CET 1 capital ratio according to Basel III, initially
and in the Riksbank’s stress test
Percent
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
12 13 14 15 12 13 14 15 12 13 14 15 12 13 14 15
Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3
Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank
Chart 5:9 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
47. The Riksbank’s short-term liquidity measure
Survival period, number of days
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Handels- Nordea SEB Swedbank
banken
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 June 2012 September 2012
Chart 5:12 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
48. The Riksbank’s structural liquidity measure
Stable funding in relation to illiquid assets, per cent
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Handels- Nordea SEB Swedbank
banken
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 June 2012 September 2012
Chart 5:14 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
49. The Riksbank's short-term and structural liquidity
measure (European Banks)
June 2012
180
160
Short-term liquidity measure (days)
140
120
100
Handelsbanken
80 SEB Swedbank
Nordea
60
40
20
0
70 80 90 100 110 120
Structural liquidity measure (per cent)
Chart 5:17 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank