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Swedbank’s year-end 2012 results
Michael Wolf, CEO
Göran Bronner, CFO
Håkan Berg, CRO
Retail

Stable development
SEKm                    Q2    Q3     Q4    Q/Q
                                                  • Deposit margins pressure
Net interest income   3 404 3 447 3 407     -40
Net commissions       1 248 1 269 1 320    +51
                                                  • Repricing lending
Total income          5 138 5 209 5 107    -102
Total expenses        2 345 2 357 2 432    +75    • Increased sales of funds
Profit before
impairments
                      2 793 2 852 2 675    -177     support commissions
Credit impairments     100    69    102    +33
                                                  • Solid asset quality
ROE, %                24.6   24.4   26.2
C/I ratio             0.46   0.45   0.48




                                                                               2
Large Corporates & Institutions

Improved profitability
SEKm                         Q2       Q3    Q4     Q/Q
                                                          • Continued growth in Large
Net interest income         825      852    824     -28
  - of which LC/FI*         666      689    729    +40
                                                            Corporates NII
Net commissions             346      379    443    +64
Net gains and                                             • High activity debt capital
                            316      341    412    +71
losses
                                                            markets and corporate
Total income              1 499 1 581 1 703        +122
Expenses excl.                                              finance (Norway)
                            602      638    612     -26
variable staff costs
Variable staff costs        118       66     71     +5    • Equities continue to be slow
Profit before
                            779      877 1 020     +143
Impairments
Credit impairments           54      -35    152    +187   • Credit impairment – one large
                                                            exposure
ROE, %                       9.8    14.2    17.5
C/I                         0.48    0.45    0.40




* Large Corporates/Financial Institutions
                                                                                            3
Baltic Banking

Slow banking environment
SEKm                   Q2     Q3     Q4     Q/Q
                                                   • Lower Euribor affected NII
Net interest income    870    755    761     +6
Net commissions        378    360    351      -9
                                                   • Small lending growth in EUR
Total income          1 430 1 273 1 275      +2
Total expenses         588    553    631    +78    • One-off in Lithuania SEK -35m
Profit before
impairments
                       842    720    644    -76      affecting commissions
Credit impairments    -204     -18   -329   -311
                                                   • Seasonally higher expenses
ROE, %                 14.8   11.0   13.7
C/I                    0.41   0.43   0.49          • Recoveries continued

                                                   • Further efficiency focus needed




                                                                                       4
Group results

Strong quarter
SEKm                              Q3     Q4      2011    2012    • One-offs affecting quarter
                                5 263   5 465 19 014 21 188
Net interest income
                                                                       - Net gains in Treasury
Net commission income           2 381   2 504    9 597   9 636
                                                                       - Tax gain of SEK 505m
Net gains and losses              568    752     1 584   2 534
                                9 051   9 491 34 045 36 620
                                                                 • Stable NII Q/Q
Total income

Total expenses                  3 998   4 287 18 399 16 949
                                                                       - Shrinking deposit margins
Profit before impairments       5 053   5 204 15 646 19 671
Impairment of tangible assets    102     199      174     466
                                                                       - Repricing
Credit impairments               204      11    -1 911    687          - Treasury effects
Tax                             1 220    640    3 669    4 039
Profit for the period           3 511   4 340 11 744 14 438
                                                                 • Higher market related income

Return on equity, %              14.1    16.7     12.2    14.4   • Seasonally higher cost
Cost-income ratio                0.44    0.45     0.54    0.46
                                                                 • Stable asset quality in home
                                                                   markets



                                                                                                     5
Focus 2013

Focus on customer and efficiency




                                                    Russia &
                                         Ektornet              Other
                                                    Ukraine

                Customer        IT
                 service   investments




     Expenses                                                          Expenses
       2012                                                              2013



                                                                                  6
Capital situation

Capital – continued accumulation

     %
                Common Equity Tier 1 ratio
20
                                                             17.4          • Management’s view is that 13-
18

16
                                              15.7
                                                      14.3
                                                                    15.4     15% CET1-ratio is required
14

12
                                                                           • Capital efficiency focus remains
10

8
                                                                           • IRB-A application filed
6

4
                                                                           • New dividend policy: 75% of the
2                                                                            profit for the year (previously 50)
0
         2007    2008     2009      2010            2011      2012

                    Basel 2   Basel 3 incl IAS 19




                                                                                                                   7
Risk highlights

Stable asset quality
Credit impairments
(SEKm)
                     Q3     Q4    2012             • Continued high credit quality in
Retail                69   102    295                Sweden
LC&I                 -35   152    185
                                                   • Net recoveries Baltic Banking
Baltic Banking       -18   -329   -685
  Estonia              2   -242   -343             • Exit costs Ukraine continue
  Latvia               8    86    -124
  Lithuania          -28   -173   -218   SEK bn
                                              35                    Impaired loans
                                                    31.7
Group Functions &
                     188    86    892        30
Other
                                             25
  Russia              28    -30    -43
                                             20
  Ukraine            140   117    915                                                                        14.0
                                             15

  Other               20     -1     20       10

Swedbank Group       204    11    687         5

                                              0
                                                    Q1 11   Q2 11    Q3 11   Q4 11   Q1 12   Q2 12   Q3 12   Q4 12



                                                                                                                     8
Digital channels

High ambition to make it easy for our customers

    Customer contacts by channel 2012                                       Mobile Bank Sweden: log-ins per month
                                                               25 000 000
                               2%
                        5%                                                                                  +150% Y/Y
                        (7%)
                                                               20 000 000



           26% (9%)
                                                               15 000 000




                               68% (83%)                       10 000 000



                                                                5 000 000



                                                                       0
       Internetbank   Mobilebank    Telephonebank   Branches           Jan 2010       Jan 2011   Jan 2012       Dec 2012




                                                                                                                           9
Q&A
Appendix




           11
Large Corporates & Institutions

Improved profitability
SEKm                          Q4 11*     Q1 12    Q2 12       Q3 12     Q4 12

Net interest income              845       887      825         852         824
 of which LC & FI**              563       652      666         689         729
 of which Markets                282       235      159         163          95
Commission income                269       434      346         379         443
 of which LC & FI* *             261       278      278         311         290
 of which Markets                  6       156        68         68         153
Total income LC&I             1 328      1 980    1 499       1 581     1 703
 of which LC & FI**              832       946      947       1 008     1 030
 of which Markets                496     1 034      552         573         673
Total expenses, excl
                                 818       607      602         638         612
variable pay
Variable staff costs              13       106      118          66          71
Profit before
                                 497     1 267      779         877     1 020
impairments
 of which LC & FI**              574       735      740         757         792
 of which Markets                -77       532        39        120         228
Total impairments                 21         14       58        -35         152


C/I ratio                       0.63      0.36     0.48        0.45         0.40

* Excluding Lehman one-off ,**Large corporates and Financial institutions

                                                                                   12
Cost performance

Strong execution on costs 2012
• Staff costs -847m and consultancy costs -241m year on year




Cost trend (SEKm)               FY 2011   FY 2012   YTD

Total expenses                  18 399    16 949    -1 450
Variable staff costs              -395      -738

Compensation to savings banks     -530      -622

Restructuring cost                -430       -2

FX effects                        -87

Underlying cost                 16 957    15 587    -1 370



                                                               13
Risk weighted assets

      Reduced RWA – continued focus

                         RWA development
SEKbn                                                                         • RWA down SEK 11bn in quarter
480
                                                                                 - Positive P/D changes

                                                                              • Application for IRB-A filed Q4
        475.5
475             - 1.2




470                       - 8.2



                                    + 1.9
                                               - 4.1
465                                                                 464.3
                                                         + 0.4



460
      2012 Q3   Volume    Rating Credit risk      Other Market risk 2012 Q4
                 (EAD)   migration FX-ef f ects credit risk




                                                                                                                 14
Liquidity and funding

Core balance sheet* structure
                   Assets                                             Liabilities
SEKbn                                                         SEKbn
1 400                                                         1 400
                                                                                    Suppl. cap
                                                                                    CET1
1 200                                                         1 200                 Government guaranteed debt
                                      Estonia                                       Senior
                                      CEE lending

1 000                                 Other corporate         1 000
                                      lending, Sweden &
                                      other Nordic coun.
                                                                                    Deposits
 800                                                           800
                                      Other private, Sweden



 600                                                           600


                                      Swedish
 400                                  mortgage loans           400

                                                                                    Covered
                                                                                    bonds
 200                                                           200



    0                                                            0
                     Q4 2012                                              Q4 2012



Source: Swedbank, Dec 31, 2012 * Simplified balance sheet
                                                                                                                 15
Liquidity and funding

Lower funding needs
•        LCR139% (Swedish FSA definition FFFS 2012:6)

•        NSFR 91%

•        Expanded investor base



         Term funding issuance – completed and planned
SEKbn                   Covered bonds   Senior unsecured
120

100

    80

    60

    40

    20

     0



                                                           16
Liquidity and funding

Conservative funding plan
•     Issued SEK 142bn of term-funding FY 2012, maturities of SEK 86bn

•     Term funding plan in 2013 of SEK 120bn, maturities of SEK 86bn




 SEKm           Long-term debt issued                                    SEKm        Outstanding short-term debt
30 000                                                                  70 000

                                                                        60 000
25 000

                                                                        50 000
20 000
                                                                Q1 12   40 000                                                        Q1 12
15 000                                                          Q2 12                                                                 Q2 12
                                                                        30 000
                                                                Q3 12                                                                 Q3 12
10 000                                                          Q4 12                                                                 Q4 12
                                                                        20 000

 5 000                                                                  10 000

     0                                                                      0
         Domestic   Euro CB    USD CB    Other CB     Senior                     Domestic   ECP/CD   USCP   Yankee CD French CD Finnish CD
           CB                  (144A)               unsecured                      CP

Source: Swedbank, Dec 31, 2012, nominal amounts
                                                                                                                                              17
Liquidity and funding

Long-term funding maturity profile
• FY 2013 maturities amount to nominal SEK 86bn




       Long-term funding maturity profile
SEKbn
200                                           Government
                                              guaranteed debt
                                              Senior unsecured
 150
                                              debt
                                              Covered bonds

 100



  50



   0
          2013       2014       2015   2016   2017     2018-


Source: Swedbank Dec 31, 2012

                                                                 18
Liquidity and funding

Senior unsecured debt strategy
•       Limited need given Swedbank’s balance sheet structure

•       Secure OC

•       Fund liquidity reserves


          Senior unsecured debt maturity profile                                                     House price sensitivity of the cover pool
                              Senior unsecured debt                                           40%
SEKbn
60                                                                                            35%
                                                                                              30%                                          OC, Q412
                                                                                              25%




                                                                     Over-collateralisation
                                                                                              20%
40
                                                                                              15%
                                                                                              10%
                                                                                               5%
20
                                                                                               0%
                                                                                               -5%
                                                                                              -10%

    0                                                                                         -15%
        2013        2014         2015        2016     2017   2018-                                    0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% -50%
Source: Swedbank, Dec 31, 2012, nominal amounts                                                                         House price drop

                                                                                                                                                            19
Liquidity and funding

Liquidity reserve
According to the template defined by the Swedish Bankers' Association



                                                                                                                   SEKm
Cash and holdings in central banks                                                                              130 984
Deposits in other banks available overnight                                                                       1 500
Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks or multilateral development banks                   22 666
Securities issued or guaranteed by municipalities or Public sector entities                                         389
Covered bonds                                                                                                    58 381
    - Issued by other institutions                                                                               58 381
    - Own issued
Securities issued by non-financial corporates
Securities issued by financial corporates (excl. covered bonds)                                                    2 340
Other

Total1                                                                                                          216 260

Additional liquid assets, Group2                                                                                 57 875




1   95% of the securities in the liquidity reserve per Q4 2012 are rated AAA
2 87% of the additional liquid assets fulfill the Liquidity Reserve definition by the Swedish Bankers’ Association except
from that they are held outside the Treasury department.


Source: Swedbank Fact book, Dec 31, 2012
                                                                                                                            20
Liquidity and funding

Prolonged survival horizon*



SEKbn
300

250

200

150

100

 50

  0
      0   20    40    60   80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 365
                                                                                  360
       Days forward



      * For definition see Swedbank factbook




Source: Swedbank Dec 31, 2012

                                                                                        21
Liquidity and funding

Conservative liquidity levels
• Short-term funding mainly a tool for cash management

• More than 12 months pre-funded




SEKbn
400                                                           400
350                                                           350
                                           Additional pledgeable
300                                                       300
                                           and/or liquid assets
                                                                                      Next 12-month term
250                                                           250
                                                               1                     funding maturities
                                           Liquidity reserve,
200                                        securities     200
                                                                                     CP / CDs and net
150                                                       150
                                           Liquidity reserve,1                       interbank funding,
                                           central bank deposits,                    SEKm
100                                        SEKm           100
 50                                                             50
  0                                                               0

Source: Swedbank Dec 31, 2012   1   As defined by the Swedish Bankers’ Association

                                                                                                           22
Liquidity and funding

 Limited need for USD-funding
•       USD-funding need covered for more than 12 months
•       Issued USD 1.5bn of covered bonds (144a) YTD 2012

SEKbn
180
                                               Interest-bearing
160                                            securities


140                                            Lending to the public


120
                                               Loans to credit
                                               institutions
100
                                               Cash and balances with
80                                             central banks

60                                             Deposits and borrowings
                                               from the public
40
                                               Amounts owed to credit
                                               institutions
20
                                               Debt securities in issue
    0
            Assets               Liabilities
Source: Swedbank Fact book, Dec 31, 2012
                                                                          23
Liquidity and funding

Remaining government guaranteed debt
• Exited the programme on 30 April 2010
• No issuance under the programme since summer 2009
• Remaining outstanding debt of SEK 30bn maturing during 2013 and 2014 of which SEK
  10bn matured in January 2013
Nom, SEKbn        Maturity profile as per Q4 2012
40




                                                           JPY
                                                           CHF
20
                                                           USD
                                                           SEK
                                                           EUR




 0
                      2013                          2014
Source: Swedbank Dec 31, 2012

                                                                                      24
Liquidity and funding

Asset encumbrance
Distribution by type of liability and asset
                                                Central banks                  Debt
                                                          and           instruments      Securities
                                    Government supranational              issued by      issued by
                                           debt          debt   Covered       credit corporate and               Mortgage
SEKm                                instruments   instruments     bonds institutions other issuers        ABS       loans     Cash       Total

Central bank funding
Intraday settlement collateral 1)            2                   12 369                                                                12 371
Repurchase agreements 2)                12 992                   13 496                                                                26 488
Derivative collateral 3)                   162                      862                                                     14 120     15 144
Covered bonds 4)                                                                                                  516 749             516 749
Accrued interest of assets in
the cover pool                                                                                                      2 330               2 330
Other 5)                                                                                                                     366          366
Total                                   13 156                   26 727                                           519 079 14 486      573 448

Financial assets pledged for insurance policy holders                                                                                 103 083

Additional assets available for secured funding 6)
                                                Central banks                  Debt
                                                          and           instruments      Securities
                                    Government supranational              issued by      issued by
                                           debt          debt   Covered       credit corporate and               Mortgage
SEKm                                instruments   instruments     bonds institutions other issuers        ABS       loans     Cash       Total

Securities 7, 8)                        26 883          3 265    84 045      11 393            8 203     1 059                        134 848
Cover pool over
collateralisation incl. accr.
interest 4)                                                                                                    181 828                181 828
Cover pool eligible assets 9)                                                                                   11 608                 11 608
Total                                   26 883          3 265    84 045      11 393            8 203     1 059 193 436                328 284
1) Pledged securities on balance sheet.                                         6) Assets not currently encumbered.
2) Repoed securities on balance sheet.                                          7) Reversed repos are included.
3) Collateral posted under CSA agreements, gross (3-year, SEKm, High: 21 572,   8) All type of securities, including securities non pledgeable at central banks, of
Low : 10 945, Average: 13 644).                                                 w hich 82% are rated AAA, 2% are rated below A- and 8% are not rated.
4) Nominal amount excluding accrued interest.                                   9) Type of loans; Residential 84.4%, Forestry & Agriculture 15.3%, Commercial
5) Collateral pledged in securities lending activities and w ith exchanges      0.3%.
Source: Swedbank Facts Q4 2012

                                                                                                                                                                      25
Swedish housing and mortgage market

Swedish mortgage market
•    No securitization (on balance sheet), no sub-prime market, no 3rd party origination, no buy-to-let
     market

•    70% home ownership1

•    Rental market is regulated

•    Transparent credit information (credit information agency, www.uc.se)
      – Publicly available information regarding income, debt, payment track record etc

•    Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations including stress test of higher interest
     rate

•    Very limited debt forgiveness possibilities (full recourse)

•    Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system




1 Source:   Boverket, 2011

                                                                                                            26
Swedish housing and mortgage market

Real estate prices – Sweden 12 months development
             Single-family homes1          Tenant-owner rights2             Combined3
                            12M Δ                        12M Δ                 12M Δ


 Jan/12                             -4%                         -2%                  -4%

 Feb/12                             -4%                         -1%                  -3%

 Mar/12                             -4%                          1%                  -3%

 Apr/12                             -2%                          2%                  -1%

 May/12                             -2%                          3%                  -1%

 Jun/12                             -1%                          4%                   0%

  Jul/12                             0%                          4%                   1%

 Aug/12                              2%                          4%                   3%

 Sep/12                              2%                          5%                   3%

 Oct/12                              1%                          6%                   3%

 Nov/12                              3%                          7%                   4%

 Dec/12                              4%                          7%                   6%

Source: Valuegard www.valuegard.se (Based on data from Mäklarstatistik), 1 HOXHOUSESWE, 2 HOXFLATSWE, 3 HOXSWE

                                                                                                                 27
Baltic real estate prices
 Real estate prices – Baltic countries
                                                                                                  Tallinn                                                                                                                                                                                           Riga
1800                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1 800
1600                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1 600
1400                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1 400
1200                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1 200
1000                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1 000
800                                                                                                                                                                                                                          800
600                                                                                                                                                                                                                          600
400                                                                                                                                                                                                                          400
200                                                                                                                                                                                                                          200
  0                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0
       Jan-05




                                 Jan-06




                                                                                     Jan-08




                                                                                                               Jan-09




                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-11
                                                           Jan-07




                                                                                                                                         Jan-10




                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-12
                    Jul-05




                                                                        Jul-07




                                                                                                  Jul-08




                                                                                                                                                      Jul-10




                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-11
                                              Jul-06




                                                                                                                            Jul-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-12




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-06



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-11



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jul-06



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-11



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jul-09
   Source: Swedbank, Estonian Land Board                                                                                                                                                                                                     Source: Swedbank Nr.of deals                                                  EUR/m2
                                                                             Nr.of deals                                         EUR/m2

                                                                                                           Vilnius
 1 800
 1 600
 1 400
 1 200
 1 000
   800
   600
   400
   200
         0
                                          Jan-06



                                                                    Jan-07



                                                                                              Jan-08




                                                                                                                                                  Jan-10



                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-11



                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-12
                Jan-05




                                                                                                                        Jan-09
                                                       Jul-06



                                                                                 Jul-07



                                                                                                           Jul-08




                                                                                                                                                               Jul-10



                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-11



                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jul-12
                             Jul-05




                                                                                                                                     Jul-09




                                                                                 Nr.of deals                                              EUR/m2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     28
-250
                    -200
                           -150
                                  -100
                                                   50




                                         -50
                                               0
                                                                    EURm
     Q4 11
     Q1 12
     Q2 12
                                                                                                                      Asset quality




     Q3 12



                                                         Estonia
     Q4 12




     Q4 11
     Q1 12
                                                        Latvia




     Q2 12
     Q3 12
     Q4 12




     Q4 11
     Q1 12
     Q2 12
                                                        Lithuania




     Q3 12
     Q4 12




     Q4 11
     Q1 12
     Q2 12
                                                        Ukraine
                                                                           Loans past due 60 days – performance Q/Q




     Q3 12
     Q4 12




     Q4 11
     Q1 12
     Q2 12
                                                         Russia




     Q3 12
     Q4 12
29
Asset quality

  Provisions – well provided for

SEKm
25 000



20 000
                                 65.0%                 63.7%      65.2%
              61.5%                                                              61.9%
15 000                                                                                      Provision ratios, %   Q4 12
             2 435
                                 2 478
            12 821                                     2 040                                Retail                  75
                                 11 915                           1 774
10 000                                                10 951                                LC&I                   166
                                                                  9 934
                                                                                  1 545     Baltic Banking          52
                                                                                  7 077     Russia                  64
 5 000
                                                                                            Ukraine                 78
                                                                                            Group                   62
     0
            Q4 11                Q1 12                 Q2 12      Q3 12           Q4 12
         Individual provisions            Portf olio provisions           Provision ratio




                                                                                                                          30
Credit portfolio – Retail

 Corporate Retail portfolio will drive capital efficiency

                    Total portfolio SEK 231bn   Segments excl. Swedbank          Volume   Secured
                                                Mortgage and Swedbank Finance   (SEKbn)     (%)
                                                Agriculture                       6.0       82
                                                Manufacturing                    11.3       70
Swedbank Mortgage                               Public sector and utilities       4.7       86
AB
                                        94      Construction                      4.4       85
Leasing (Swedbank      113
Finance AB)                                     Retail                            8.8       89
Other                                           Transportation                    2.0       78
                                  24
                                                Shipping                          0.1       95
                                                Hotels and restaurants            3.0       90
                                                Information & communication       0.9       49
                                                Finance and insurance             3.3       79
                                                Property management              54.9       96
                                                Professional service              6.7       59
                                                Other                             6.4       61
                                                Total                            113        86


                                                                                                    31
Credit portfolio – Large Corporates & Institutions
                                                                                                                Shipping and Offshore
    Shipping and offshore                                                                 SEKbn
                                                                                                                            0.4%
                                                                                                                                                        -3.6%
                                                                                         30

•
                                                                                                                             26
     Lending exposure to shipping and offshore sector of                                             24         24                         25
                                                                                                                                                           24

     SEK 24.2bn plus unutilised commitments of SEK                                                                                                         4
                                                                                         20
     7.9bn                                                                                                                                                 6

      – Portfolio duration 4-5y
                                                                                         10
      – Average fleet age 7y                                                                                                                              14

      – Strong employment profiles
                                                                                         0
                                                                                                    Q4-11    Q1-12          Q2-12        Q3-12           Q4-12

                                                                                                            Offshore        Tanker       Other




                 Shipping and Offshore Portfolio by Subsegment                                       Shipping and Offshore Portfolio by Currency
                          RORO                       1.7
                       Container               1.0
                                                                                              JPY
                         Dry bulk          0.7                                                                                                  Q4-12
                Gas (LNG/LPG)                   1.2                                                                                             Q3-12
                                                                       Q4-12
                        Crude oil          0.7                                                NOK
                         Product                           2.4         Q3-12
                       Chemical          0.2                                                  USD
             Floating production                         1.9
                Accommodation                   1.2
                                                                 3.6                          EUR
                          Supply
                      Oil service                        1.9
            Drilling & exploration                                             7.0            SEK
                           Cruise         0.5
                                                                                                    0       5          10           15           20            25
                                     0               2           4     6             8



                                                                                                                                                                    32
Credit portfolio – Agriculture Sweden


 •   Segmentation Definitions
      –   Corporate Agriculture: Business that derive their
                                                                  Private:
          main income from Agricultural activities               Residential
      –   Private Investments: Private individuals who own         20%
          the agricultural properties for living or investment
          purposes

                                                                                         Agriculture
                                                                                           45%
 •   Lending to the Agriculture Industry 62.9bn
      –   Corporate Agriculture: (58%)
                                                            Private:
            • Agriculture 45%                               Forestry
            • Forestry 13%                                   22%

      –   Private Investments (42%)
            • Residents: 20%
                                                                               Foresty
            • Forestry: 22%                                                     13%




                                                                                                       33
ICAAP
 2012 ICAAP Scenario
 – Deep recession without recovery

               Triggers                           Outcome
    • Europe enters into deep            • Sharp GDP drop with no
      recession                            recovery (10-15% from 2011
                                           level)
    • Limited possibilities for fiscal
      stimulus                           • Severe drop in house prices
    • European bank runs                   (25-37% from 2011 level)
    • Credit contraction                 • Depreciated EUR and
                                           appreciated SEK
    • Closed funding markets
                                         • Devaluation in Latvia and
                                           Lithuania




                                                                         34
ICAAP

High capitalisation even in extremely stressed scenario
• Revenue decrease 31 percent

• Credit impairments SEK 64bn over 5 year

• Scenario effects on Core Tier 1 ratio -165bp

• Well above 12% Core Tier 1 ratio at low point even in extremely
  stressed scenario in new regulatory environment




                                                                    35
ICAAP
      2012 ICAAP dcenario
      – Deep recession without recovery
105                       GDP - Index                              105                      Real Estate prices - index


100                                                                 95

 95                                                                 85

 90                                                                 75

 85                                                                 65

 80                                                                 55
       2011   2012        2013       2014      2015     2016             2011    2012       2013       2014       2015       2016
          Sweden       Estonia        Latvia    Lithuania                   Sweden        Estonia       Latvia       Lithuania
3.0%                  Interest rates – 3m                          14                         FX scenario

2.5%                                                               12
                                                                   10
2.0%
                                                                    8
1.5%                                                                6
1.0%                                                                4
                                                                    2
0.5%
                                                                    0
0.0%                                                                     2011    2012       2013       2014       2015       2016
       2011    2012       2013        2014     2015         2016
                        Euribor       Stibor                                    USD/SEK         EUR/SEK          GBP/SEK

                                                                                                                                    36
ICAAP
  2012 ICAAP – Main scenario results
                                         SEK bn           Net Interest Income
 • NII decreases by 39% throughout the     30
                                                  20.7
   scenario                                20

                                           10                                             12.6

                                             0
                                                  2011   2012     2013     2014    2015   2016
 • Credit Impairments total SEK 64bn
                                                         Credit impairments
   over the scenario period              SEK bn
                                            30                     23.4
                                            20
                                            10
                                              0
                                                  2011   2012     2013      2014   2015   2016
                                           -10
 • RWA decreases due to significant      SEKbn           RWA incl. reg effects
   credit impairments and deleveraging     700
                                           600
                                           500                                            414
                                           400
                                           300
                                                  2011   2012     2013      2014   2015   2016


                                                                                                 37
ICAAP


   2012 ICAAP – Income statement

                                                                                            Total
Income statement (SEKbn)                   2011   2012   2013   2014    2015   2016
                                                                                      2012 - 2016
Total net interest income                  20.7   19.5   16.7    14.2   13.0   12.6         75.9
Total income                               34.7   31.8   34.0    25.4   24.3   24.1        139.6
Total expenses                             20.9   17.6   18.7    18.0   18.0   17.8         90.1
Profit before credit losses                13.8   14.2   15.3     7.4    6.3    6.2         49.5
Credit losses                              -1.8    8.2   23.4    17.4    9.3    5.4         63.6
Operating profit                           15.5    6.1   -8.1   -10.0   -3.0    0.9        -14.1
     Appropriations                         0.0    0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0    0.0          0.0
     Tax                                    3.7    1.6    0.0     0.0    0.0    0.2          1.8
Profit for the year                        11.8    4.5   -8.1   -10.0   -3.0    0.6        -16.0
     Minority interest                      0.3    0.1    0.0     0.0    0.0    0.0          0.1
Profit for the year attr to shareholders   11.5    4.4   -8.1   -10.0   -3.0    0.6        -16.1
     Dividend                               5.8    2.2    0.0     0.0    0.0    0.3          2.5
Profit after tax, min. int. & dividend      5.7    2.2   -8.1   -10.0   -3.0    0.3        -18.6




                                                                                                    38
ICAAP
    2012 ICAAP – Credit impairments
                                         EAD 2011                                                                       Acc. loss ratio
 Credit impairments (%)                   (SEKbn)        2012          2013          2014          2015          2016
                                                                                                                           2012 - 2016
 Total                                     1,384.4        0.6           1.8           1.5           0.9           0.5              4.6
 of which LC & I                             309.8        0.5           2.3           2.0           0.8           0.6              5.4
          Retail                             950.8        0.3           1.2           1.0           0.7           0.3              3.2
          Estonia                             52.5        1.2           2.5           2.2           1.8           1.7              6.6
          Latvia                              30.6        2.7           6.1           5.6           4.4           4.6             15.0
          Lithuania                           31.1        2.4           4.1           3.0           2.4           2.2              9.5
          Russia & Ukraine                     9.6        5.2          20.9          10.5           3.7           1.6             41.9

The accumulated losses constitute SEK 63.6bn.
Credit impairments in LC&I and Retail constitute 74% of total accumulated credit impairments
  Credit impairments LC & I and Retail      EAD 2011                                                                           Acc. loss ratio
                                             (SEKbn)            2012          2013          2014          2015          2016
  (%)                                                                                                                             2012 - 2016
  Agriculture, forestry and fishing               25.8           0.5           1.4           1.3           1.0           0.2               3.7
  Manufacturing                                   39.3           1.0           2.6           2.5           1.2           0.5               6.7
  Public sector and utilities                     11.6           0.6           1.8           2.1           1.3           0.4               5.3
  Construction                                    15.1           1.2           3.4           3.4           1.9           0.4               8.5
  Retail                                          22.8           1.3           4.6           5.4           4.0           2.4              14.0
  Transportation                                   8.6           2.1           8.2           5.7           3.4           1.2              16.1
  Shipping                                        31.2           0.4           8.5           6.2           0.6           0.5              14.4
  Hotels and restaurants                           3.8           2.7           6.3           6.3           3.7           0.7              15.0
  Information and communication                    5.0           0.6           1.7           1.9           1.0           0.5               4.9
  Finance and insurance                           20.4           0.3           0.8           1.2           0.6           0.3               2.8
  Property management                            125.1           0.9           3.9           3.8           2.0           1.0               9.6
  Cooperative housing associations                75.4           0.3           1.1           1.2           0.5           0.1               2.8
  Other corporate lending                         75.5           0.9           1.4           1.2           0.7           0.3               3.9
  Professional services                           14.9           1.0           2.7           3.2           2.1           0.7               8.0
  Bank                                           128.2           0.5           1.3           1.1           0.9           0.8               3.9
  Private                                        657.8           0.1           0.4           0.3           0.3           0.2               1.2
  Total                                        1,260.5           0.4           1.5           1.3           0.7           0.4               3.7

                                                                                                                                                 39
ICAAP
 2012 ICAAP Main adverse scenario results
 Capital assessment
 RWA & Capital (SEKbn)                                                     2011      2012    2013    2014    2015    2016
 RWA                                                                       492.3     489.5   504.1   433.9   395.2   365.0
 RWA inc 15% mortgage riskweight *                                         565.3     552.2   557.1   482.4   442.6   414.4
 RWA inc regulatory effects **                                             588.1     575.0   557.1   482.4   442.6   414.4

 Core Tier 1                                                                77.3      79.7    62.1    52.4    49.5    49.8
 Core Tier 1 inc regulatory effects **                                      73.6      76.0    62.1    52.4    49.5    49.8
 Total Capital base                                                         93.2      88.3    70.9    61.5    57.2    55.2

 Capital assessment (%)                                                    2011      2012    2013    2014    2015    2016
 Core Tier 1 ratio                                                          15.7      16.3    12.3    12.1    12.5    13.6
 Core Tier 1 ratio inc 15% mortgage riskweight *                            13.7      14.4    11.1    10.9    11.2    12.0
 Core Tier 1 ratio inc. regulatory effects **                               12.5      13.2    11.1    10.9    11.2    12.0
 Total capital ratio inc. 15% mortgage riskweight *                         16.5      16.0    12.7    12.7    12.9    13.3

 * The effect of a 15% average riskweight on the Swedish Mortgage portfolio
 ** Includes assessed effects of Basel 3, IAS 19 and changed mortgage risk-weights




                                                                                                                             40
The Riksbank's Financial Stability Report 2012:2
• Swedbank has the overall strongest capitalisation among
  Swedish peers

• Swedbank has the strongest liquidity metrics among Swedish
  peers,

• Swedbank is the most reciliant bank in a stressed scenario, only
  Swedbank makes a profit every year of the stress

• Swedbank is the transparency leader


                All subsequent slides are taken from the
               Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report 2012:2

                                                                     41
Core Tier 1 capital ratios according to Basel III
  Percent
    18

    16

    14

    12

    10

     8

     6

     4

     2

     0
             Handels-          Nordea              SEB                 Swedbank
              banken
                        March 2012   June 2012   September 2012

Chart 1:13                                               Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Adjusted Leverage ratio
  December 2011, per cent
                  UBS
     Intesa Sanpaolo
                 HSBC
                   RBS
        St. Chartered
    Erste Group Bank
                 BBVA
             Barclays
         BNP Paribas
            UniCredit
      Credit Agricole
    Société Générale
                Lloyds
            Raiffeisen
           Swedbank
                   SEB
                  DNB
         Credit Suisse
       Commerzbank
         Danske Bank
              Nordea
       Deutsche Bank
      Handelsbanken
                         0   2   4   6    8            10            12

Chart 4:10                               Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
Level of loan losses in the main scenario, percent

   0.30


   0.25


   0.20


   0.15


   0.10


   0.05


   0.00
            Handels-   Nordea          SEB     Swedbank    Totalt
             banken
                                2013   2014   2015

Chart 5:3                                                 Source: The Riksbank
CET 1 capital ratio according to Basel III, initially
  and in the Riksbank’s stress test
  Percent
      18

      16

      14

      12

      10

       8

       6

       4

       2

       0
            12   13   14   15   12   13   14   15   12   13   14     15    12    13     14    15
            Q3                  Q3                  Q3                     Q3
             Handelsbanken           Nordea               SEB                   Swedbank

Chart 5:9                                                          Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
P&L in the Riksbank stress test
The Riksbank’s short-term liquidity measure
  Survival period, number of days
    120


    100


     80


     60


     40


     20


      0
                 Handels-            Nordea                SEB               Swedbank
                  banken
             September 2011   December 2011   March 2012   June 2012    September 2012

Chart 5:12                                                       Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
The Riksbank’s structural liquidity measure
  Stable funding in relation to illiquid assets, per cent
    120


    100


     80


     60


     40


     20


      0
                 Handels-            Nordea                 SEB               Swedbank
                  banken
             September 2011   December 2011    March 2012   June 2012    September 2012

Chart 5:14                                                        Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
The Riksbank's short-term and structural liquidity
  measure (European Banks)
  June 2012
                                           180


                                           160
     Short-term liquidity measure (days)




                                           140


                                           120


                                           100

                                                                   Handelsbanken
                                            80               SEB                        Swedbank
                                                                   Nordea
                                            60


                                            40


                                            20


                                             0
                                                 70   80              90             100               110              120
                                                           Structural liquidity measure (per cent)

Chart 5:17                                                                                           Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
Transparency, liquidity risk




                               50
Mortgage loans, gross margin (3 months)
    %
6



5



4                                                                                           Net margin

                                                                                            The gross margin should cover:
3                                                                                           Cost of liquidity ~0.2%
                                                                                            Administrative costs ~0.3%
                                                                                            Credit impairments ~ 0.03%
                                                                                            Tax (22 % on profit before tax)
2



1



0
 2003     2004     2005     2006      2007    2008     2009     2010     2011     2012

    Gross margin   Swedbank's funding cost   Stibor 3 months   Swedish Riksbanks reporate


                                                                                                                          51

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Presentation of Swedbank's Year-End Report 2012

  • 1. Swedbank’s year-end 2012 results Michael Wolf, CEO Göran Bronner, CFO Håkan Berg, CRO
  • 2. Retail Stable development SEKm Q2 Q3 Q4 Q/Q • Deposit margins pressure Net interest income 3 404 3 447 3 407 -40 Net commissions 1 248 1 269 1 320 +51 • Repricing lending Total income 5 138 5 209 5 107 -102 Total expenses 2 345 2 357 2 432 +75 • Increased sales of funds Profit before impairments 2 793 2 852 2 675 -177 support commissions Credit impairments 100 69 102 +33 • Solid asset quality ROE, % 24.6 24.4 26.2 C/I ratio 0.46 0.45 0.48 2
  • 3. Large Corporates & Institutions Improved profitability SEKm Q2 Q3 Q4 Q/Q • Continued growth in Large Net interest income 825 852 824 -28 - of which LC/FI* 666 689 729 +40 Corporates NII Net commissions 346 379 443 +64 Net gains and • High activity debt capital 316 341 412 +71 losses markets and corporate Total income 1 499 1 581 1 703 +122 Expenses excl. finance (Norway) 602 638 612 -26 variable staff costs Variable staff costs 118 66 71 +5 • Equities continue to be slow Profit before 779 877 1 020 +143 Impairments Credit impairments 54 -35 152 +187 • Credit impairment – one large exposure ROE, % 9.8 14.2 17.5 C/I 0.48 0.45 0.40 * Large Corporates/Financial Institutions 3
  • 4. Baltic Banking Slow banking environment SEKm Q2 Q3 Q4 Q/Q • Lower Euribor affected NII Net interest income 870 755 761 +6 Net commissions 378 360 351 -9 • Small lending growth in EUR Total income 1 430 1 273 1 275 +2 Total expenses 588 553 631 +78 • One-off in Lithuania SEK -35m Profit before impairments 842 720 644 -76 affecting commissions Credit impairments -204 -18 -329 -311 • Seasonally higher expenses ROE, % 14.8 11.0 13.7 C/I 0.41 0.43 0.49 • Recoveries continued • Further efficiency focus needed 4
  • 5. Group results Strong quarter SEKm Q3 Q4 2011 2012 • One-offs affecting quarter 5 263 5 465 19 014 21 188 Net interest income - Net gains in Treasury Net commission income 2 381 2 504 9 597 9 636 - Tax gain of SEK 505m Net gains and losses 568 752 1 584 2 534 9 051 9 491 34 045 36 620 • Stable NII Q/Q Total income Total expenses 3 998 4 287 18 399 16 949 - Shrinking deposit margins Profit before impairments 5 053 5 204 15 646 19 671 Impairment of tangible assets 102 199 174 466 - Repricing Credit impairments 204 11 -1 911 687 - Treasury effects Tax 1 220 640 3 669 4 039 Profit for the period 3 511 4 340 11 744 14 438 • Higher market related income Return on equity, % 14.1 16.7 12.2 14.4 • Seasonally higher cost Cost-income ratio 0.44 0.45 0.54 0.46 • Stable asset quality in home markets 5
  • 6. Focus 2013 Focus on customer and efficiency Russia & Ektornet Other Ukraine Customer IT service investments Expenses Expenses 2012 2013 6
  • 7. Capital situation Capital – continued accumulation % Common Equity Tier 1 ratio 20 17.4 • Management’s view is that 13- 18 16 15.7 14.3 15.4 15% CET1-ratio is required 14 12 • Capital efficiency focus remains 10 8 • IRB-A application filed 6 4 • New dividend policy: 75% of the 2 profit for the year (previously 50) 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Basel 2 Basel 3 incl IAS 19 7
  • 8. Risk highlights Stable asset quality Credit impairments (SEKm) Q3 Q4 2012 • Continued high credit quality in Retail 69 102 295 Sweden LC&I -35 152 185 • Net recoveries Baltic Banking Baltic Banking -18 -329 -685 Estonia 2 -242 -343 • Exit costs Ukraine continue Latvia 8 86 -124 Lithuania -28 -173 -218 SEK bn 35 Impaired loans 31.7 Group Functions & 188 86 892 30 Other 25 Russia 28 -30 -43 20 Ukraine 140 117 915 14.0 15 Other 20 -1 20 10 Swedbank Group 204 11 687 5 0 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 8
  • 9. Digital channels High ambition to make it easy for our customers Customer contacts by channel 2012 Mobile Bank Sweden: log-ins per month 25 000 000 2% 5% +150% Y/Y (7%) 20 000 000 26% (9%) 15 000 000 68% (83%) 10 000 000 5 000 000 0 Internetbank Mobilebank Telephonebank Branches Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Dec 2012 9
  • 10. Q&A
  • 11. Appendix 11
  • 12. Large Corporates & Institutions Improved profitability SEKm Q4 11* Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Net interest income 845 887 825 852 824 of which LC & FI** 563 652 666 689 729 of which Markets 282 235 159 163 95 Commission income 269 434 346 379 443 of which LC & FI* * 261 278 278 311 290 of which Markets 6 156 68 68 153 Total income LC&I 1 328 1 980 1 499 1 581 1 703 of which LC & FI** 832 946 947 1 008 1 030 of which Markets 496 1 034 552 573 673 Total expenses, excl 818 607 602 638 612 variable pay Variable staff costs 13 106 118 66 71 Profit before 497 1 267 779 877 1 020 impairments of which LC & FI** 574 735 740 757 792 of which Markets -77 532 39 120 228 Total impairments 21 14 58 -35 152 C/I ratio 0.63 0.36 0.48 0.45 0.40 * Excluding Lehman one-off ,**Large corporates and Financial institutions 12
  • 13. Cost performance Strong execution on costs 2012 • Staff costs -847m and consultancy costs -241m year on year Cost trend (SEKm) FY 2011 FY 2012 YTD Total expenses 18 399 16 949 -1 450 Variable staff costs -395 -738 Compensation to savings banks -530 -622 Restructuring cost -430 -2 FX effects -87 Underlying cost 16 957 15 587 -1 370 13
  • 14. Risk weighted assets Reduced RWA – continued focus RWA development SEKbn • RWA down SEK 11bn in quarter 480 - Positive P/D changes • Application for IRB-A filed Q4 475.5 475 - 1.2 470 - 8.2 + 1.9 - 4.1 465 464.3 + 0.4 460 2012 Q3 Volume Rating Credit risk Other Market risk 2012 Q4 (EAD) migration FX-ef f ects credit risk 14
  • 15. Liquidity and funding Core balance sheet* structure Assets Liabilities SEKbn SEKbn 1 400 1 400 Suppl. cap CET1 1 200 1 200 Government guaranteed debt Estonia Senior CEE lending 1 000 Other corporate 1 000 lending, Sweden & other Nordic coun. Deposits 800 800 Other private, Sweden 600 600 Swedish 400 mortgage loans 400 Covered bonds 200 200 0 0 Q4 2012 Q4 2012 Source: Swedbank, Dec 31, 2012 * Simplified balance sheet 15
  • 16. Liquidity and funding Lower funding needs • LCR139% (Swedish FSA definition FFFS 2012:6) • NSFR 91% • Expanded investor base Term funding issuance – completed and planned SEKbn Covered bonds Senior unsecured 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 16
  • 17. Liquidity and funding Conservative funding plan • Issued SEK 142bn of term-funding FY 2012, maturities of SEK 86bn • Term funding plan in 2013 of SEK 120bn, maturities of SEK 86bn SEKm Long-term debt issued SEKm Outstanding short-term debt 30 000 70 000 60 000 25 000 50 000 20 000 Q1 12 40 000 Q1 12 15 000 Q2 12 Q2 12 30 000 Q3 12 Q3 12 10 000 Q4 12 Q4 12 20 000 5 000 10 000 0 0 Domestic Euro CB USD CB Other CB Senior Domestic ECP/CD USCP Yankee CD French CD Finnish CD CB (144A) unsecured CP Source: Swedbank, Dec 31, 2012, nominal amounts 17
  • 18. Liquidity and funding Long-term funding maturity profile • FY 2013 maturities amount to nominal SEK 86bn Long-term funding maturity profile SEKbn 200 Government guaranteed debt Senior unsecured 150 debt Covered bonds 100 50 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018- Source: Swedbank Dec 31, 2012 18
  • 19. Liquidity and funding Senior unsecured debt strategy • Limited need given Swedbank’s balance sheet structure • Secure OC • Fund liquidity reserves Senior unsecured debt maturity profile House price sensitivity of the cover pool Senior unsecured debt 40% SEKbn 60 35% 30% OC, Q412 25% Over-collateralisation 20% 40 15% 10% 5% 20 0% -5% -10% 0 -15% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018- 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% -50% Source: Swedbank, Dec 31, 2012, nominal amounts House price drop 19
  • 20. Liquidity and funding Liquidity reserve According to the template defined by the Swedish Bankers' Association SEKm Cash and holdings in central banks 130 984 Deposits in other banks available overnight 1 500 Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks or multilateral development banks 22 666 Securities issued or guaranteed by municipalities or Public sector entities 389 Covered bonds 58 381 - Issued by other institutions 58 381 - Own issued Securities issued by non-financial corporates Securities issued by financial corporates (excl. covered bonds) 2 340 Other Total1 216 260 Additional liquid assets, Group2 57 875 1 95% of the securities in the liquidity reserve per Q4 2012 are rated AAA 2 87% of the additional liquid assets fulfill the Liquidity Reserve definition by the Swedish Bankers’ Association except from that they are held outside the Treasury department. Source: Swedbank Fact book, Dec 31, 2012 20
  • 21. Liquidity and funding Prolonged survival horizon* SEKbn 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 365 360 Days forward * For definition see Swedbank factbook Source: Swedbank Dec 31, 2012 21
  • 22. Liquidity and funding Conservative liquidity levels • Short-term funding mainly a tool for cash management • More than 12 months pre-funded SEKbn 400 400 350 350 Additional pledgeable 300 300 and/or liquid assets Next 12-month term 250 250 1 funding maturities Liquidity reserve, 200 securities 200 CP / CDs and net 150 150 Liquidity reserve,1 interbank funding, central bank deposits, SEKm 100 SEKm 100 50 50 0 0 Source: Swedbank Dec 31, 2012 1 As defined by the Swedish Bankers’ Association 22
  • 23. Liquidity and funding Limited need for USD-funding • USD-funding need covered for more than 12 months • Issued USD 1.5bn of covered bonds (144a) YTD 2012 SEKbn 180 Interest-bearing 160 securities 140 Lending to the public 120 Loans to credit institutions 100 Cash and balances with 80 central banks 60 Deposits and borrowings from the public 40 Amounts owed to credit institutions 20 Debt securities in issue 0 Assets Liabilities Source: Swedbank Fact book, Dec 31, 2012 23
  • 24. Liquidity and funding Remaining government guaranteed debt • Exited the programme on 30 April 2010 • No issuance under the programme since summer 2009 • Remaining outstanding debt of SEK 30bn maturing during 2013 and 2014 of which SEK 10bn matured in January 2013 Nom, SEKbn Maturity profile as per Q4 2012 40 JPY CHF 20 USD SEK EUR 0 2013 2014 Source: Swedbank Dec 31, 2012 24
  • 25. Liquidity and funding Asset encumbrance Distribution by type of liability and asset Central banks Debt and instruments Securities Government supranational issued by issued by debt debt Covered credit corporate and Mortgage SEKm instruments instruments bonds institutions other issuers ABS loans Cash Total Central bank funding Intraday settlement collateral 1) 2 12 369 12 371 Repurchase agreements 2) 12 992 13 496 26 488 Derivative collateral 3) 162 862 14 120 15 144 Covered bonds 4) 516 749 516 749 Accrued interest of assets in the cover pool 2 330 2 330 Other 5) 366 366 Total 13 156 26 727 519 079 14 486 573 448 Financial assets pledged for insurance policy holders 103 083 Additional assets available for secured funding 6) Central banks Debt and instruments Securities Government supranational issued by issued by debt debt Covered credit corporate and Mortgage SEKm instruments instruments bonds institutions other issuers ABS loans Cash Total Securities 7, 8) 26 883 3 265 84 045 11 393 8 203 1 059 134 848 Cover pool over collateralisation incl. accr. interest 4) 181 828 181 828 Cover pool eligible assets 9) 11 608 11 608 Total 26 883 3 265 84 045 11 393 8 203 1 059 193 436 328 284 1) Pledged securities on balance sheet. 6) Assets not currently encumbered. 2) Repoed securities on balance sheet. 7) Reversed repos are included. 3) Collateral posted under CSA agreements, gross (3-year, SEKm, High: 21 572, 8) All type of securities, including securities non pledgeable at central banks, of Low : 10 945, Average: 13 644). w hich 82% are rated AAA, 2% are rated below A- and 8% are not rated. 4) Nominal amount excluding accrued interest. 9) Type of loans; Residential 84.4%, Forestry & Agriculture 15.3%, Commercial 5) Collateral pledged in securities lending activities and w ith exchanges 0.3%. Source: Swedbank Facts Q4 2012 25
  • 26. Swedish housing and mortgage market Swedish mortgage market • No securitization (on balance sheet), no sub-prime market, no 3rd party origination, no buy-to-let market • 70% home ownership1 • Rental market is regulated • Transparent credit information (credit information agency, www.uc.se) – Publicly available information regarding income, debt, payment track record etc • Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations including stress test of higher interest rate • Very limited debt forgiveness possibilities (full recourse) • Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system 1 Source: Boverket, 2011 26
  • 27. Swedish housing and mortgage market Real estate prices – Sweden 12 months development Single-family homes1 Tenant-owner rights2 Combined3 12M Δ 12M Δ 12M Δ Jan/12 -4% -2% -4% Feb/12 -4% -1% -3% Mar/12 -4% 1% -3% Apr/12 -2% 2% -1% May/12 -2% 3% -1% Jun/12 -1% 4% 0% Jul/12 0% 4% 1% Aug/12 2% 4% 3% Sep/12 2% 5% 3% Oct/12 1% 6% 3% Nov/12 3% 7% 4% Dec/12 4% 7% 6% Source: Valuegard www.valuegard.se (Based on data from Mäklarstatistik), 1 HOXHOUSESWE, 2 HOXFLATSWE, 3 HOXSWE 27
  • 28. Baltic real estate prices Real estate prices – Baltic countries Tallinn Riga 1800 1 800 1600 1 600 1400 1 400 1200 1 200 1000 1 000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jul-05 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-06 Jul-09 Jul-12 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-05 Jul-09 Source: Swedbank, Estonian Land Board Source: Swedbank Nr.of deals EUR/m2 Nr.of deals EUR/m2 Vilnius 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-05 Jul-09 Nr.of deals EUR/m2 28
  • 29. -250 -200 -150 -100 50 -50 0 EURm Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Asset quality Q3 12 Estonia Q4 12 Q4 11 Q1 12 Latvia Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Lithuania Q3 12 Q4 12 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Ukraine Loans past due 60 days – performance Q/Q Q3 12 Q4 12 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Russia Q3 12 Q4 12 29
  • 30. Asset quality Provisions – well provided for SEKm 25 000 20 000 65.0% 63.7% 65.2% 61.5% 61.9% 15 000 Provision ratios, % Q4 12 2 435 2 478 12 821 2 040 Retail 75 11 915 1 774 10 000 10 951 LC&I 166 9 934 1 545 Baltic Banking 52 7 077 Russia 64 5 000 Ukraine 78 Group 62 0 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Individual provisions Portf olio provisions Provision ratio 30
  • 31. Credit portfolio – Retail Corporate Retail portfolio will drive capital efficiency Total portfolio SEK 231bn Segments excl. Swedbank Volume Secured Mortgage and Swedbank Finance (SEKbn) (%) Agriculture 6.0 82 Manufacturing 11.3 70 Swedbank Mortgage Public sector and utilities 4.7 86 AB 94 Construction 4.4 85 Leasing (Swedbank 113 Finance AB) Retail 8.8 89 Other Transportation 2.0 78 24 Shipping 0.1 95 Hotels and restaurants 3.0 90 Information & communication 0.9 49 Finance and insurance 3.3 79 Property management 54.9 96 Professional service 6.7 59 Other 6.4 61 Total 113 86 31
  • 32. Credit portfolio – Large Corporates & Institutions Shipping and Offshore Shipping and offshore SEKbn 0.4% -3.6% 30 • 26 Lending exposure to shipping and offshore sector of 24 24 25 24 SEK 24.2bn plus unutilised commitments of SEK 4 20 7.9bn 6 – Portfolio duration 4-5y 10 – Average fleet age 7y 14 – Strong employment profiles 0 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Offshore Tanker Other Shipping and Offshore Portfolio by Subsegment Shipping and Offshore Portfolio by Currency RORO 1.7 Container 1.0 JPY Dry bulk 0.7 Q4-12 Gas (LNG/LPG) 1.2 Q3-12 Q4-12 Crude oil 0.7 NOK Product 2.4 Q3-12 Chemical 0.2 USD Floating production 1.9 Accommodation 1.2 3.6 EUR Supply Oil service 1.9 Drilling & exploration 7.0 SEK Cruise 0.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 2 4 6 8 32
  • 33. Credit portfolio – Agriculture Sweden • Segmentation Definitions – Corporate Agriculture: Business that derive their Private: main income from Agricultural activities Residential – Private Investments: Private individuals who own 20% the agricultural properties for living or investment purposes Agriculture 45% • Lending to the Agriculture Industry 62.9bn – Corporate Agriculture: (58%) Private: • Agriculture 45% Forestry • Forestry 13% 22% – Private Investments (42%) • Residents: 20% Foresty • Forestry: 22% 13% 33
  • 34. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP Scenario – Deep recession without recovery Triggers Outcome • Europe enters into deep • Sharp GDP drop with no recession recovery (10-15% from 2011 level) • Limited possibilities for fiscal stimulus • Severe drop in house prices • European bank runs (25-37% from 2011 level) • Credit contraction • Depreciated EUR and appreciated SEK • Closed funding markets • Devaluation in Latvia and Lithuania 34
  • 35. ICAAP High capitalisation even in extremely stressed scenario • Revenue decrease 31 percent • Credit impairments SEK 64bn over 5 year • Scenario effects on Core Tier 1 ratio -165bp • Well above 12% Core Tier 1 ratio at low point even in extremely stressed scenario in new regulatory environment 35
  • 36. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP dcenario – Deep recession without recovery 105 GDP - Index 105 Real Estate prices - index 100 95 95 85 90 75 85 65 80 55 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania 3.0% Interest rates – 3m 14 FX scenario 2.5% 12 10 2.0% 8 1.5% 6 1.0% 4 2 0.5% 0 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Euribor Stibor USD/SEK EUR/SEK GBP/SEK 36
  • 37. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP – Main scenario results SEK bn Net Interest Income • NII decreases by 39% throughout the 30 20.7 scenario 20 10 12.6 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • Credit Impairments total SEK 64bn Credit impairments over the scenario period SEK bn 30 23.4 20 10 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -10 • RWA decreases due to significant SEKbn RWA incl. reg effects credit impairments and deleveraging 700 600 500 414 400 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 37
  • 38. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP – Income statement Total Income statement (SEKbn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 - 2016 Total net interest income 20.7 19.5 16.7 14.2 13.0 12.6 75.9 Total income 34.7 31.8 34.0 25.4 24.3 24.1 139.6 Total expenses 20.9 17.6 18.7 18.0 18.0 17.8 90.1 Profit before credit losses 13.8 14.2 15.3 7.4 6.3 6.2 49.5 Credit losses -1.8 8.2 23.4 17.4 9.3 5.4 63.6 Operating profit 15.5 6.1 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.9 -14.1 Appropriations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tax 3.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 Profit for the year 11.8 4.5 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.6 -16.0 Minority interest 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Profit for the year attr to shareholders 11.5 4.4 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.6 -16.1 Dividend 5.8 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 Profit after tax, min. int. & dividend 5.7 2.2 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.3 -18.6 38
  • 39. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP – Credit impairments EAD 2011 Acc. loss ratio Credit impairments (%) (SEKbn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 - 2016 Total 1,384.4 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.5 4.6 of which LC & I 309.8 0.5 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.6 5.4 Retail 950.8 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 3.2 Estonia 52.5 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.7 6.6 Latvia 30.6 2.7 6.1 5.6 4.4 4.6 15.0 Lithuania 31.1 2.4 4.1 3.0 2.4 2.2 9.5 Russia & Ukraine 9.6 5.2 20.9 10.5 3.7 1.6 41.9 The accumulated losses constitute SEK 63.6bn. Credit impairments in LC&I and Retail constitute 74% of total accumulated credit impairments Credit impairments LC & I and Retail EAD 2011 Acc. loss ratio (SEKbn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (%) 2012 - 2016 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 25.8 0.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 3.7 Manufacturing 39.3 1.0 2.6 2.5 1.2 0.5 6.7 Public sector and utilities 11.6 0.6 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.4 5.3 Construction 15.1 1.2 3.4 3.4 1.9 0.4 8.5 Retail 22.8 1.3 4.6 5.4 4.0 2.4 14.0 Transportation 8.6 2.1 8.2 5.7 3.4 1.2 16.1 Shipping 31.2 0.4 8.5 6.2 0.6 0.5 14.4 Hotels and restaurants 3.8 2.7 6.3 6.3 3.7 0.7 15.0 Information and communication 5.0 0.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.5 4.9 Finance and insurance 20.4 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 2.8 Property management 125.1 0.9 3.9 3.8 2.0 1.0 9.6 Cooperative housing associations 75.4 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.8 Other corporate lending 75.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 3.9 Professional services 14.9 1.0 2.7 3.2 2.1 0.7 8.0 Bank 128.2 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 3.9 Private 657.8 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.2 Total 1,260.5 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 3.7 39
  • 40. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP Main adverse scenario results Capital assessment RWA & Capital (SEKbn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 RWA 492.3 489.5 504.1 433.9 395.2 365.0 RWA inc 15% mortgage riskweight * 565.3 552.2 557.1 482.4 442.6 414.4 RWA inc regulatory effects ** 588.1 575.0 557.1 482.4 442.6 414.4 Core Tier 1 77.3 79.7 62.1 52.4 49.5 49.8 Core Tier 1 inc regulatory effects ** 73.6 76.0 62.1 52.4 49.5 49.8 Total Capital base 93.2 88.3 70.9 61.5 57.2 55.2 Capital assessment (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Core Tier 1 ratio 15.7 16.3 12.3 12.1 12.5 13.6 Core Tier 1 ratio inc 15% mortgage riskweight * 13.7 14.4 11.1 10.9 11.2 12.0 Core Tier 1 ratio inc. regulatory effects ** 12.5 13.2 11.1 10.9 11.2 12.0 Total capital ratio inc. 15% mortgage riskweight * 16.5 16.0 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.3 * The effect of a 15% average riskweight on the Swedish Mortgage portfolio ** Includes assessed effects of Basel 3, IAS 19 and changed mortgage risk-weights 40
  • 41. The Riksbank's Financial Stability Report 2012:2 • Swedbank has the overall strongest capitalisation among Swedish peers • Swedbank has the strongest liquidity metrics among Swedish peers, • Swedbank is the most reciliant bank in a stressed scenario, only Swedbank makes a profit every year of the stress • Swedbank is the transparency leader All subsequent slides are taken from the Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report 2012:2 41
  • 42. Core Tier 1 capital ratios according to Basel III Percent 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Handels- Nordea SEB Swedbank banken March 2012 June 2012 September 2012 Chart 1:13 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
  • 43. Adjusted Leverage ratio December 2011, per cent UBS Intesa Sanpaolo HSBC RBS St. Chartered Erste Group Bank BBVA Barclays BNP Paribas UniCredit Credit Agricole Société Générale Lloyds Raiffeisen Swedbank SEB DNB Credit Suisse Commerzbank Danske Bank Nordea Deutsche Bank Handelsbanken 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Chart 4:10 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
  • 44. Level of loan losses in the main scenario, percent 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Handels- Nordea SEB Swedbank Totalt banken 2013 2014 2015 Chart 5:3 Source: The Riksbank
  • 45. CET 1 capital ratio according to Basel III, initially and in the Riksbank’s stress test Percent 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 12 13 14 15 12 13 14 15 12 13 14 15 12 13 14 15 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank Chart 5:9 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
  • 46. P&L in the Riksbank stress test
  • 47. The Riksbank’s short-term liquidity measure Survival period, number of days 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Handels- Nordea SEB Swedbank banken September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 June 2012 September 2012 Chart 5:12 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
  • 48. The Riksbank’s structural liquidity measure Stable funding in relation to illiquid assets, per cent 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Handels- Nordea SEB Swedbank banken September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 June 2012 September 2012 Chart 5:14 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
  • 49. The Riksbank's short-term and structural liquidity measure (European Banks) June 2012 180 160 Short-term liquidity measure (days) 140 120 100 Handelsbanken 80 SEB Swedbank Nordea 60 40 20 0 70 80 90 100 110 120 Structural liquidity measure (per cent) Chart 5:17 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
  • 51. Mortgage loans, gross margin (3 months) % 6 5 4 Net margin The gross margin should cover: 3 Cost of liquidity ~0.2% Administrative costs ~0.3% Credit impairments ~ 0.03% Tax (22 % on profit before tax) 2 1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Gross margin Swedbank's funding cost Stibor 3 months Swedish Riksbanks reporate 51