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Purchasing Managers' Index Services - February 2012
1. Purchasing Managers’ Index – services March 5, 2012
Services PMI drops to 54.0 in February: the service sector
economy is stabilizing
The purchasing managers’ index for services (Services PMI) dropped marginally
from 54.4 in January to 54.0 in February. This marks a break in the upturn observed
since December. Still, the index remains in the growth zone, which indicates that the
service sector is expanding, albeit at a somewhat slower pace.
All but one of the Services PMI’s component indices fell, the exception being the
index for business activity, which climbed 2.8 points. This increase in business
activity may reflect the increase in new orders observed in January. The indices for
new orders, employment, and supplier delivery times all fell in February, but all
remain above the 50 mark.
Service companies have ratcheted up their business plans for the next six months,
which are now at their highest level since July. This indicates that the service
sector’s outlook for the economy remains positive.
The index for supplier intermediate goods prices dropped in February. A cooling
trend in the overall economy and a stronger Swedish krona may have contributed to
lower cost pressure for service providers.
Services PMI
(Purchasing Managers’
Index - Services)
Seasonally adjusted
2012 Feb. 54.0
Jan. 54.4
Dec. 51.1
Nov. 48.9
Oct. 49.0
Sep. 51.2
Aug. 53.5
Jul. 54.1
Jun. 53.3
May 56.4
Apr. 60.8
Mar. 60.8
Feb. 61.4
Next publication of Services PMI: Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Magnus Alvesson Swedbank, Ekonomic Research Department, +46 (0)8-5859 3341
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Administration, +46 (0)8-5859 7740, ek.sekr@swedbank.se
Sebastian Bergfelt, Silf, +46 (0)73-944 6450, professionals@silf.se
4. Silf/Swedbank’s
Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services
- objectives and methodology
History Silf and Swedbank AB publ. made the first joint – internal – calculation of
the “Purchasing Managers’ Index” for the service sector of the four
indexes (PMI) during 2005. The model for PMI – Services is the U.S.
based Non-Manufacturing Index and the Swedish PMI, which has been
published since November 1994
Participants About 200 purchasing managers in the service sector.
Publication Third weekday of each month, 8:30 am.
Analysis Period Comparison with previous month.
Composition
of PMI – Services (%) New orders (within the company) 35
Business activity (within the company) 25
Employment (within the company) 20
Suppliers’ Delivery Times 20
Other leading indicators
(not included in PMI – Services) Backlog of Orders
Suppliers’ intermediate goods prices
Planned business activity next six months
Objective Quick economic indicator
Simple statistics
Statistics with relatively short publication intervals
Constant contact with a well-informed professional group
Calculation According to “diffusion index”. Positive changes are noted in percent for
the four sub indexes. The percentage of unchanged replies, multiplied by
0.5, is added to this figure. Then the different sub indexes are weighted as
described above to reach the total index. The Purchasing Managers’
Index – Services does not indicate activity levels but rather monthly
changes in activity in the service sector.
“Break-even” The dividing line between growth and decline – in line with US praxis –
has been drawn at a total index of 50. However, this boundary or “neutral
growth zone” should not be applied excessively. Rather, “Break-even” at
50 indicates a target value.
We believe we have used reliable sources and procedures to generate and analyze the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI –
Services). However, Swedbank AB (publ) and SILF (earlier Organisationen för Inköp och Logistik, /I&L/ – The Organization
for Purchasing and Logistics) cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the analyses and cannot be responsible for
any errors or omissions in the basic data or processing thereof. The reader should base any decisions on other background
material as well.
Swedbank AB (publ), SILF. their employees, and other coworkers accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss or injury of any kind arising from any errors or omissions in the analyses presented in the Purchasing
Managers’ Index – Services.
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