Intelligent Systems here you will get idea of how to take decision with technical concept which today's ROBOT and Machine are taking :)

1. SWAPNIL G. THAWARE
M.E. FIRST YEAR
( COMP Engg. )
“Intelligent System”

2. 1. Decision analysis :
2. Decision maker :
3.Decision Analyst :
4.Knowledge Engg. Process :
1 )Create a causal model
2 )Simplify to a qualitative decision model
3) Assign probabilities
4)Assign utilites
5 )Verify and refine the model
6) Perform sensitivity analysis

3.  This field is evolved in 1950s and 1960s.
 Used in important domain and helps in
making decision.
 Where stakes are high Like Eg.Business,
Government,Law, Military and Medical
Diagnosis.
 Defination of Decision analysis :
“This process involve careful study of possible
actions and outcomes and preferences placed
on each outcome ”

4. Decision maker :
Role :- “State preferences between
outcomes”
Decision Analyst :
 Enumerates the possible actions and
outcomes and elicites preferences from
the Decision maker. For determine best
course of action.

5.  In early 1980s the main purpose of decision
analysis was help human make decision that
reflect their own preference.
BUT
 In current days more and more decision
process are automated, and decision analysis is
used to make sure that automated processes
are behaving as desired.
 “Concentrate on answering que. rather than
making decision ”

6. ( In this we have to select a medical treatment for a
congenital heart disease in children )
 About 0.8% of children are born with heart anomaly
most common is Aortic Coarctation.
So it can be treated with Surgery, Angioplasty or
Medication.
The problem is which treatment and when to do that ?
But DTES for this problem is a solution.................

7.  DTES make a team consist of at least one Domain
Expert (i.e. Pediatric cardiologist)
and one Knowledge Engg.
1 )Create a causal model :
 Determine what are possible symptoms,
disorder, treatment and outcomes.
 Then draw arcs between them so they can easily show
which symptoms what causes and this is come from the
literature survey and domain expert.

8. 2 )Simplify to a qualitative decision model :
 Remove unwanted things.
Because here we have to choose only treatment
So neglect time and cost factor.
3) Assign probabilities :
 Comes from patient databases, literature survey
Eg. P( Dyspnoea|heartfailure )
4)Assign utilites :
 When there are small no. of outcome they can be
enumerated and evaluated individually .
We create a best to worst outcome and give each
numeric value.
For Eg. 0 for complete recovery and 1000 for death.

9. 5 )Verify and refine the model :
 To evaluate a system we will need set of correct
(input ,output) pairs. i.e. Called gold standard.
6) Perform sensitivity analysis :
 This is imp step and check whether the best
decision is sensitive to small change in the
assigned probabilities.
 Varrying those parameter and running the
evaluation again.

10. Q.1 What is the job of decision maker ?
Q.2 What is the job of decision analyst in
DTES ?
Q.3 What happens in causal model ?
Q.4 In which model we have to evaluate
set of (input ,output) pairs ?