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Global warming: What we know now
- 1. Global Warming Science New & Views, OLLI Sedona Bob Haizmann 10/26/16
- 2. Global Warming Effects • Atmospheric warming • Ocean warming • Ocean acidification • Sea-ice decline • Sea level increase • Extreme weather • Food security Mitigation • Efficiency improvements • Switch to non-fossil fuels • Carbon pricing • Political will Causes • CO2 emissions from burning coal, oil, gas, cement production • CH4 from gas leaks & livestock farming • N2O from fertilizers • Fluorinated gases • Reduced albedo from sea-ice decline • Deforestation Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
- 3. Evidence • Ice core samples 800,000 years old show CO2 levels over time • Earth's surface temperature has increased by 1.4 ℉ in the last 100 years, 1.0 ℉ in the last 30 years • Satellite data • increase in global sea levels of 3 mm per year in recent decades • decline in Arctic sea-ice extent 4% per decade; 50% lower in 2012 compared to 1979-200. Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
- 4. • Precession of Earth’s tilt - 26,000 years • Obliquity - change in Earth’s axial tilt angle - 41,000 years • Precession of Earth’s orbit around the Sun - 112,000 years • Eccentricity of Earth’s orbit around the Sun– 100,000 years • Tilt of Earth's orbital plane around the Sun - 100,000 years Natural cycles change the climate Milankovitch Cycles Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016 Tilt of Earth’s plane Precession of orbit Precession of tilt
- 5. Natural cycles change the climate Milankovitch Cycles • When these cycles are in phase they reinforce each other • Hot and cold phases go through 100,000 yr cycles • We should be entering a cooler phase but this isn’t happening Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
- 6. CO2 and Global Temperatures – not dropping as in the past cycles Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016 Last 400,000 years Last 1,000 years CO2 range from ~190 - 280 ppm, 400,000 year average ~240 ppm CO2 now 150 ppm above 400,000 year average
- 7. Energy consumption Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
- 8. Energy consumption Energy use per capita Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
- 9. Energy consumption Energy intensity – energy use per $ Gross Domestic Product Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
- 10. Energy consumption USA - change of energy consumption per GDP over time • USA is getting more efficient, but not fast enough • Tremendous economic growth has occurred while getting more efficient Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
- 11. Paris agreement on climate change • Sept 23, 2016 • USA with China announce they will formally ratify the Paris Climate Agreement • Together, they create 38 % world’s emissions • USA pledged to cut emissions between 26 and 28 % vs 2005 levels by 2025 • Oct 4, 2106 • Ratification by the EU this month pushed it over a crucial threshold — approval of nations accounting for 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions • Nov 4, 2016 • The Paris Agreement will enter into force Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
- 12. CO2 Emissions and Global Temperature Rise Constrained by Paris Agreement Goal of Paris agreement Goal of Paris agreement Current Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
- 13. USA Corporate Average Fuel Economy Plans CAFE standards • 1978 • Workarounds caused 20 years of stagnation • Example - light trucks had lower standards….birth of the SUV • 2009 • By 2017 - 35.5 mpg • 2012 • By 2025 – 54.5 mpg Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
- 14. USA Clean Power Plan • August 3, 2015 • President Obama and EPA announced the Clean Power Plan • Reduce CO2 by 30% by 2030 by shifting power generation to natural gas or renewables • February 9, 2016 • The Supreme Court stayed implementation of the Clean Power Plan pending judicial review • September 27, 2016 • Lawyers for states & businesses reliant on coal testified to a federal appeals court Science News & Views presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016
- 15. The spiral of silence • Few Americans, even those who care about the carbon crisis, chat about climate change with friends or family • No one talks, so no one feels comfortable talking • Silence begets silence widening the gap between popular discourse and public opinion, in an ever- descending spiral http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Climate-Spiral-Silence-March-2016.pdf Science News & Views, presentation by Bob Haizmann, OLLI Sedona, Fall Quarter 2016