Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation (January 2014)
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A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world (as of January 2014) Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org
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Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation (January 2014)
- 1. WORLD WHEAT Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org/
- 2. The World Wheat Market Year 11/12 12/13 13/14 Production 697 656 713 Consumption 697 679 703 Surplus (shortfall) 1 -23 10 0 2
- 3. World Production and Use 0 3
- 4. Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan 0 4
- 5. World wheat supply & demand Date Beginning stock Production Supply total 12/13 13/14 199 199 176 697 656 713 896 Supply 11/12 855 889 Trade Exports/imports 158 138 159 Demand Food & seed Feed & residual Use tool 550 543 567 147 136 136 697 679 703 199 176 185 Ending stocks 0 5
- 6. Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio *Ending stocks 0 6
- 7. Global Ending Stocks and Price 0 7
- 9. International Wheat Factors Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 8.7% from last season, +57 million tons. Approximately 19.3% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and resultantly the Chicago corn / wheat spread has narrowed from US$2.30 / buschel to the current US$1.49 / buschel. India playing a larger role in export market – Indian production to reach 92.5 MMT, up 10% from 5-year average and second largest on record. Black Sea exports to reach 35.3 MMT and represent 22% of world market, compared to 19% in 2012/13 0 9
- 10. Black Sea Exports 0 10
- 13. Supply & demand of wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons) Date 13/14* Opening stock 489 Production 1751 Imports 1650* Consumption 3086 Exports 265 Closing stock 539 0 13
- 14. Local Wheat Drivers Limited small crop – 1,751 million tons (need to import 49% of requirement) = import parity driven With record world crop produced, fairly good export competition keeping a lid on prices (quality milling wheat less abundant). Single largest driver of local prices is the weakening currency (Rand). 0 14
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