A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world (as of December 2013)
Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org
9. International Wheat Factors
Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 7.8% from last season, +51
million tons.
Approximately 20% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and with
the Chicago corn / wheat spread at US$2.30 / buschel - battle.
In spite of problems in South America (frost in Brazil and smaller plantings in
Argentina) – not bullish internationally (Canada and Australia – larger crops).
New season Northern Hemisphere – US / Black Sea / EU plantings look good
– start harvest in June 2014
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13. Supply & demand of wheat
in South Africa (‘000 tons)
Date
13/14*
Opening stock
489
Production
1752
Imports
1600*
Consumption
3040
Exports
280
Closing stock
521
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14. Local Wheat Drivers
With small local crop, we will trade inland import parity
Currently local wheat well priced versus imports (R / US$), +- R100 / ton at
R10.20 / US$
Western Cape quality concern – at least 100 000 tons lost to feed (S&D)
Still some unsold Black Sea wheat stored in silos / more coming in Dec / Jan
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