2016 May GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through May 2016

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
GRAY
For more information please contact Gray Associates.
Email: Sales@GrayAssociates.com
Who Is Gray?
GrayData
Employment
BLS/O*NET
Placement Rates
Gray Research
Student Inquiries
GrayReports
Demographics
US Census
Job Postings
CEB TalentNeuron
Students Programs StrategyLocations
§  Segment selection
§  Price elasticity
§  Market share
§  City targeting
§  Location selection
§  Consolidation
§  Program selection
§  Program development
§  Market reports
§  Business strategy
§  Strategy implementation
§  Pricing
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
IPEDS+
Program Evaluation
System
§  Custom Scoring
§  Scorecards
-  By Program
-  By Market
-  100+ Markets
-  1,000+ Programs
Enhanced Crosswalks

GRAY
What Is GrayReports?
GrayReports tracks demand for higher education.
§  Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free.
§  Paid subscribers have online access to detailed data for their programs and markets.
Over 45 million qualified inquiries
January 2012 to the present
Over 700,000 new inquiries in May 2016
Nearly 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
Over 700 metro areas with over 10,000 inquiries

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Agenda
1.  National Inquiry and Conversion Trends
2.  Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs
3.  Views by Program and Segment
4.  CEB TalentNeuron
5.  Summary

GRAY
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Overall inquiry volumes have dropped every month in 2016.

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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
National Inquiries
Overall inquiry volumes have dropped every month in 2016.
§  The average monthly decline has been 11%.
-11%

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-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
National Inquiries
Overall inquiry volumes for higher education have been sinking 11% year-over-year.
§  Inquiries have decreased every month in 2016.
§  This month is in-line with the average monthly drop of 11%.
-11% YoY

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Branded Inquiries
Branded inquiry volumes have been volatile in 2016.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
National Branded Inquiries

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Branded Inquiries
§  In January and February, they rose 4% year-over-year.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
+4%

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Branded Inquiries
§  In March and April, they fell 10% year over year.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
+4% -10%

GRAY
Branded Inquiries
§  In March and April, they fell 10% year over year.
§  In May, they inched up 4%.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
+4% YoY
+4% -10%

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External Inquiries: Overall Results
External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 13% year-over-year.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National External Inquiries
-13%

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External Inquiries: Overall Results
External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 13% year-over-year.
§  In May, external inquiries crashed 16%.
§  This was the lowest monthly volume in 2016.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National External Inquiries
-16% YoY

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Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile.
§  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as little as 0% and as much as 20%.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Jan-16 Feb-16
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be
counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.
+11%
+20%
+0%

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Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile.
§  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as much as 20%.
§  Since Q4 2015, results have been more stable and consistent with Q1 2014.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Jan-16 Feb-16
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be
counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.
0 to 5%

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Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For February inquiries, total student conversions inched down 3% year-over-year.
§  This came in close to last year’s number and is better than the decline we saw in January.
§  Conversions of March inquiries have a lot of ground to make up to reach last year’s levels.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
-3% YoY

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For February inquiries, total student conversions inched down 3% year-over-year.
§  This came in close to last year’s number and is better than the decline we saw in January.
§  Conversions of March inquiries have a lot of ground to make up to reach last year’s levels.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
2014 2015 2016
-3% YoY
Immature Months1

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Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
The price of an external inquiry decreased 3% year-over-year.
§  This was the first decrease in the average price in 2016.
2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18
2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.89 $42.70
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
+3%
Note: PPI means“Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

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2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18
2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.89 $42.70
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
The price of an external inquiry decreased 3% year-over-year and 5% month-over-month.
§  This was the first decrease in the average price in 2016.
Note: PPI means“Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
-3%

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Agenda
5.  Summary

GRAY
Inquiries for Online Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs have been falling an average of 8% year-over-year.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
2014 2015 2016
-8%

GRAY
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs have risen month-over-month for three months.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
2014 2015 2016

GRAY
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeIn May, inquiries for online programs finally beat 2015, by 3% year-over-year .
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
2014 2015 2016
+3% YoY

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Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online programs fell 9% in February.
§  This was the second consecutive decline after a five month streak of conversion growth.
─  However, conversions of March inquiries look like they will pass year-before levels.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
Immature Months1
-9% YoY
1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
Student inquiries for on-campus higher education programs dropped 11% year-over-year.
§  All five months so far in 2016 have fallen below year-ago and 2014 levels.
§  Four of the five months, including May, have seen double-digit percentage decreases year-over-year.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-11% YoY

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs continued to decline—down 22% YoY in February.
§  Inquiries from the past three months look more promising to reach last year’s conversion levels.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-22% YOY
Immature Months1

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Agenda
5.  Summary

GRAY
The Big 5 Programs: May Growth
Only one of The Big Five programs grew in May.
§  Registered Nursing grew 17% year-over-year.
§  Criminal Justice/Police Science was flat.
§  Medical Assistant and Administrative Assistant continued to fall.
17%
0%
-16%
-19%
-24%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Registered Nursing
(ADN, BSN)
Criminal
Justice
Business Admin:
Associate
Business Admin:
Bachelors+
Medical
Assistant
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries
2016 YoY % Change

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0%
52% 63%
484%
100% 86% 84%
65%
-50%
50%
150%
250%
350%
450%
550%
Psychology
Counseling
Welding Computer
Programming
Music
General
Health Information/
Medical Records
The Fast 5
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
Two new programs showed up in the five fastest growing programs.
§  Counseling Psychology grabbed the top spot2 .
§  The other four programs grew more than 65% in May.
1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012).
2.  May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.

GRAY
The Fast 5 Programs: Change in New Job Postings
Student Demand and job growth are often out of synch.
7%
-22%
0%
-14%
8%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
Counseling Psychology Welding Computer Programming Music, General Health Information/Medical
Records
The Fast 5
Year-over-Year Change in New Job Postings
April to March

GRAY
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
Only one of The Big 5 cities grew year-over-year.
§  Philadelphia grew 2% in May.
§  Once again, Chicago had the largest decline.
-24%
-14%
-29%
-12%
-29%
2%
-15%
-21%
-31%
-35%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012
2015 YoY % Change2 2016 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

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Registered Nursing in Philadelphia

GRAY
Top Programs in Philadelphia

GRAY
Computer Support Specialist: Most Frequently Requested Skills
United States
C/C++
Microsoft Windows Azure
Graphical User Interface design
Multilingual
Maintenance repairs
HP Service Manager
Reverse logistics
Microsoft Hyper-V Server
VMware vSphere
Amazon Web Services
ServiceNow
Time and attendance
Unit testing
Software as a Service
Oracle Solaris
N-tier application architecture
Barcode
Pharmacy Benefit Management
Claims processing administration and management
Microsoft SQL Server Reporting Services
Bilingual
Requirements gathering
Production support
Functional specifications
Lightweight Directory Access Protocol
System architecture
PBX telephone exchange
Philadelphia
Bilingual
Systems Development Life Cycle
Cloud Computing
ServiceNow
Atlassian JIRA
Web services
Software as a Service
Microsoft Office Visio
JavaScript
IBM Lotus Notes
Python
Business Systems
System administration
Technical support
Microsoft Forefront
VMware vSphere
RIM Blackberry
Practical Extraction and Reporting Language
PBX telephone exchange
Relational Database Management System
Business insights
Salesforce CRM SFDC
C-sharp
Enterprise Resource Planning Software
Systems Integration
Wide Area Network
Hypertext markup language
Source: CEB TalentNeuron

GRAY
-33%
-25%
-14%
-10%
-9%
-6%
-4%
-3%
1%
6%
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
Unknown Degree
Associate's
External
Certificate
Campus
Branded
Online
Doctorate
Master's
Bachelor's
Quarterly Change in Inquiries
2014/2015 vs. 2015/2016 (March – May)
Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing 3 Months
Quarterly inquiries for higher-level degrees continued to grow.
§  Doctorate inquiries are the only exception as they were down 3%.
§  Once again, internal inquiries declined.
§  For the quarter, both on-campus and online programs fell.

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Channel - Trailing 3 Months
For the most part, branded inquiry channels outperformed external inquiries.
§  Social Media continued to be the fastest-growing channel.
§  Three diﬀerent branded inquiry channels grew in May.
§  Unlike recent months an external channel grew year-over-year for this time period.
-72%
-42%
-42%
-33%
-15%
-14%
-14%
-11%
-8%
-6%
3%
5%
26%
42%
54%
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Display: Branded
Offline Media: Branded
Email: Branded
Referral: Branded
Affiliate: External
All Other Internal: Branded
PPL: External
PPC: Branded
Inbound Phone: Branded
Interactive: Branded
Website: Branded
Affiliate - PPC: External
PPC - Inbound Call: Branded
Organic: Branded
Social Media: Branded
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel
(March – May, YoY)

GRAY
Agenda
5.  Summary

40
What Is TalentNeuron Recruit?
Data
Warehouse:
1+
Billion
"Talent
Records"

Data
from
Parker
Spiders
passes

through
the
"Puller"
systems
to

ensure
consistency
of
data
quality

and
to
supplement
data
from

websites
with
third-‐party

enhancements
(BLS,
US
Census).

"Parker"
is
a
scalable
system

designed
to
create,
test,
and

deploy
thousands
of
soKware

spiders
to
collect
speciﬁc
data

elements
from
diverse
job

boards
and
corporate
websites.

Models
calculate
Hiring
Scale,

Average
PosRng
DuraRon,
Year-‐
Over-‐Year
Volumes,
Hiring
Spikes

and
many,
many
other
metrics

using
state-‐of-‐the-‐art
servers

and
technologies.

SaaS:
AnalyRcs
dashboard.

Public
API:
Talent

Management
plaWorms
/
job

boards.
Customized
Report

Scheduler
to
generate
daily
or

weekly
feeds.

"Parker"

Data
Acquisi0on

"Puller"

Data
Transforma0on

"Delivery"

Online
web
interface

"Tolkien"

Product
Crea0on

Distribute
to
Thousands

of
Users
per
Day

Serve
On-‐Demand,

Real-‐Time
Analysis

Filter
40
Mil.
Records
/

Week
to
17
Mil.
Clean
Records

Aggregate
from

25,000
Sources
of
Data

41
How Education Clients Use Our Data
•  Dozens of colleges, university and for profit education corporations utilize our
real time labor data to mark smarter, faster decisions
•  The analytics platform is used by Curriculum Developers to help determine
that Skills and Certifications most in demand by Employers in the area
•  Counselors use analytics to match students skills, certifications and desired
job titles to see what employers are hiring, by location, and if students need
to “skill up” based on employer’s most requested skills
•  Analyzing growing employer demand, by occupations, allows educational
entities the ability to evaluate where to expand campus locations or open up
new campuses
•  The use of TalentNeuron’s API or data feed matches student’s skills and
certifications to available job postings within the college or universities
student portal

42
TalentNeuron API - Matching Students to Careers
Within
the
Pearson/Acclaim
student
portal,
once
professional
skills
or
“badges”
are
earned,

students
can
click
the
skill
tags
that
they’ve
achieved
and
quickly
see
where
their
career
could
go

by
viewing
acRve
job
posRngs
by
job
Rtle,
by
locaRon,
by
Employer
name
and
a
host
of
other
data

points

43
The TalentNeuron Dashboard
View real time labor data with surgical precision - the web based platform

44
Medical Assistants in Atlanta – The Complete Demand
Picture

45
Medical Assistants – View Employer Demand by Metro
Area

46
University Graduates Migration Analysis

GRAY
Agenda
5.  Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
May generally underperformed, but we finally saw some positives.
§  Inquiry volumes fell 10%.
─  On-campus down 11%
§  However, we saw some bright spots this month.
─  Branded grew 4%
─  Online grew 3%
§  Conversions of February inquiries were down 3% YoY.
─  It is too early to tell if March of 2016 will reach last year’s levels.
§  Average price reached its lowest level since 2014.
§  Higher degree levels continue to outperform; Associate’s programs lag.
§  Job posting data is a valuable addition to employment analysis.
§  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions.
─  Where to focus your marketing—by program and market
─  What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webinars
Please join us next month!
July Webinar
(June Results)
Thursday, July 21st at 2:00 PM EDT

2016 May GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

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2016 May GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education