2016 June GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS
Demand for Higher Education Programs
www.GrayAssociates.com
Results through June 2016

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2
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GrayReports tracks demand for higher education.
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§  The demand data is incorporated into our Program Evaluation System.
Over 45 million qualified inquiries
January 2012 to the present
Over 700,000 new inquiries in June 2016
Nearly 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries
Over 700 metro areas with over 10,000 inquiries

GRAY
Agenda
1.  National Inquiry and Conversion Trends
2.  Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs
3.  Views by Program and Segment
4.  Job Postings
5.  Richard McCulloch - Tribeca Marketing Group
6.  Summary

GRAY
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
In June, inquiry volumes dropped 7% year-over-year.
§  Inquiries have decreased every month in 2016.
§  However, June had the smallest year-over-year decline so far this year.
-7% YoY

GRAY
Branded Inquiries
Branded inquiries jumped 36% in June.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
National Branded Inquiries
+36% YoY

GRAY
External Inquiries: Overall Results
External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 15% year-over-year.
§  In June, external inquiries plummeted 22%.
§  This was the lowest monthly volume in 2016.
-22% YoY
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
National External Inquiries

GRAY
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile.
§  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as little as 0% and as much as 20%.
§  They appear to be stabilizing at Q1 2014 levels.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends
(Indexed to Q1 2014)
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be
counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2.  Total includes unknown source type.
+11%
+20%
+0%

GRAY
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for Branded Inquiries
In Q1 2016, conversion rates reached their lowest point in over two years.
§  Branded inquiries are inquiries that come directly to institutions (e.g., school websites and call centers).
§  Conversion rates have been falling, from 9% to 7%, or less.
§  As schools have worked to get more branded inquiries, average quality has fallen.
9.0%
8.2% 8.3% 8.2%
7.0% 7.2%
8.4%
7.0%
6.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Branded Inquiries: Conversion Rates

GRAY
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for External Inquiries
After trending up into mid-2015, external inquiry conversion rates have dropped to about 2%.
§  External inquiries are inquiries that are generated by third parties, often referred to as PPI inquiries.
§  Institutions have been turning to higher-quality inquiry providers, driving up conversion rates.
§  Schools need admissions channels that can cost-eﬀectively manage these “lower-octane” inquiries.
1.8%
2.0%
2.1%
2.2%
2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
1.9%
2.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
External Inquiries: Conversion Rates

GRAY
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For March inquiries, total student conversions crashed 16% year-over-year.
§  This is the worst decline we’ve seen so far this year.
§  Conversions of April inquiries have a lot of ground to make up to reach last year’s levels.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the
application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Total Inquiry Conversions
All Programs and Award Levels
2014 2015 2016
-16% YoY
Immature Months1

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2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18
2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75
2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.48 $45.06
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
$42
$44
$46
$48
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
In June, the price of an external inquiry increased 3% year-over-year.
§  This is unfortunate after having our first YoY decrease of 2016 last month.
§  In the first six months of 2016, the average price for paid inquiries are up almost 3% year-over-year.
Note: PPI means“Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
+3%

GRAY
Agenda
4.  Job Postings
6.  Summary

GRAY
Inquiries for Online Programs
Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeSo far this year, inquiries for online programs have fallen 6% year-over-year.
•  June finished 8% lower year-over-year.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
-6%
-8% YoY

GRAY
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for Online Programs
Conversion rates for inquiries for online programs are returning to 2014 levels.
§  Conversion rates have mostly ranged between 2.4% and 2.9% over the past two years.
§  After a spike to 3.4%, conversion rates have returned to 2.6%
1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January
conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.
2.0%
3.0%
2.8%
2.5% 2.4% 2.4%
3.4%
2.9%
2.6%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Conversion Rate Trends for Online Programs

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
Conversions for online programs grew 1% in March.
§  This was the first increase in 2016.
─  April and May are likely to reach last year’s levels.
─  For June, it is too soon to tell.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs
2014 2015 2016
Immature Months1
+1% YoY

GRAY
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
Student inquiries for on-campus higher education programs dropped 13% year-over-year.
§  The first six months of 2016 have all fallen below year-ago and 2014 levels.
§  Inquiries for on-campus programs are down 12% so far in 2016 compared to 2015.
2012
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-13% YoY

GRAY
4.3%
4.1%
4.4%
4.7%
3.8%
3.6% 3.7%
3.5% 3.6%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016
Conversion Rate Trends for On-Campus Programs
Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for On-Campus Programs
Conversion rates for on-campus program inquiries have been stable since Q1 2015.
§  For 2014 inquiries, conversion rates for on-campus programs ranged from 4.1% to 4.7%.
§  For 2015 inquiries, conversion rates were substantially lower: 3.5% to 3.8%.
§  Q1 2016 inquiries converted at a rate more consistent with the 2015 norm.
1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be
counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

GRAY
Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
Conversions for on-campus programs continued to decline—down 14% YoY in March.
§  The immature months (April, May, June) look more promising.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs
2014 2015 2016
-14% YOY
Immature Months1

GRAY
Agenda
4.  Job Postings
6.  Summary

GRAY
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
Only one of The Big 5 cities grew year-over-year.
§  Philadelphia grew 7% in June.
§  Once again, Chicago had the largest decline.
-26%
-9%
-31%
3%
-14%
7%
-16%
-31%
-34%
-41%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL
Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries
2015 YoY % Change2 2016 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

GRAY
The Big 5 Programs: June Growth
Only one of The Big Five programs grew in June.
§  Registered Nursing grew 4% year-over-year.
§  Criminal Justice/Police Science decreased slightly.
§  Medical Assistant dropped 10%.
§  Business Administration dropped over 25% at the Bachelor’s and Associate’s levels.
4%
-5%
-10%
-26%
-36%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Registered Nursing
(ADN, BSN)
Criminal
Justice
Medical
Assistant
Business Admin:
Bachelors+
Business Admin:
Associate
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
2016 YoY % Change

GRAY
-10%
40%
478%
422% 411%
62% 60% 55%
-50%
50%
150%
250%
350%
450%
550%
Welding Psychology
Counseling
Truck and Bus
Driver/CDL
Computer
Programming
Organizational
Leadership
The Fast 5 Programs
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change
The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
Two new programs showed up in the five fastest-growing programs1.
§  Both Welding and Counseling Psychology increased over 400% in June2.
§  The other three programs grew more than 55% in June.
1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012).
2.  May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.

GRAY
In addition to inquiries, a program evaluation requires data on competition, jobs, wages, and degree fit.
Organizational Leadership: Philadelphia

GRAY
The Fast 5 Cities for All Inquiries
Four northeast markets were among the five fastest growing cities in June.
1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.
-15%
-12% -9%
-14%
-32%
43%
39%
26%
21%
8%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Boston, MA Providence, RI Hartford, CT New Haven, CT Fresno, CA
Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries
2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change

GRAY
-29%
-19%
-18%
-11%
-6%
-4%
-4%
0%
0%
8%
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
Associate's
Unknown Degree
External
Campus
Certificate
Online
Doctorate
Bachelor's
Master's
Branded
Quarterly Change in Inquiries
2016/2015 (April to June)
Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing Three Months
Only Branded inquiries grew for the quarter.
§  Aside from Doctoral degrees, higher level degrees were flat.
§  For the quarter, both on-campus and online programs fell.

GRAY
Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months
For the most part, branded inquiry channels outperformed external inquiries.
§  Social Media continued to be the fastest-growing channel.
§  Four diﬀerent branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.
§  One external channel grew year-over-year for this period.
-61%
-37%
-36%
-35%
-24%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-8%
-7%
9%
26%
37%
64%
243%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%
Display: Branded
Referral: Branded
Email: Branded
Offline Media: Branded
PPL: External
Affiliate: External
Interactive: Branded
All Other Internal: Branded
PPC: Branded
PPC - Inbound Call: Branded
Website: Branded
Inbound Phone: Branded
Organic: Branded
Affiliate - PPC: External
Social Media: Branded
Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel
(April through June YoY)

GRAY
Agenda
4.  Job Postings
6.  Summary

GRAY
Occupations with the Greatest Growth over the Past Year (Among the Top 100 Largest SOC Occupations)
The strongest occupations saw job posting increases of 50% or more.
§  Healthcare occupations grew the fastest, with four of the top ten in that field.
25%
25%
27%
28%
29%
35%
40%
42%
72%
86%
0% 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Pharmacists
Teacher Assistants
Food Service Managers
Automotive Specialty Technicians
Elementary School Teachers (Except for Special Education)
Pharmacy Technicians
Physical Therapists
Restaurant Cooks
Real Estate Sales Agents
Critical Care Nurses
Percentage Increase in Job Postings by SOC
July 2015-July 2016 vs. Prior Year
Year-Over-Year Change
Source: CEB TalentNeuron, Gray Analysis. Note that data shown is for all MSAs, so it excludes rural areas.
Healthcare

GRAY
Overall Largest Occupations by Job Postings
The largest occupation, Registered Nursing, had 1.4 million job postings in the past year.
§  Computer-related occupations also ranked high, accounting for four of the top ten.
334,921
344,380
367,595
376,314
402,176
510,921
533,135
543,870
914,463
1,399,827
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000
Network and Computer Systems Administrators
Management Analysts
Medical and Health Services Managers
Computer System Analysts
Computer User Support Specialists
Software Developers, Applications
Customer Service Representatives
Marketing Managers
Retail Salespersons
Registered Nurses
National Job Postings by Standard Occupation Code
July 2015 to July 2016
Job Postings (Volume)
Source: CEB TalentNeuron, Gray Analysis. Note that data shown is for all MSAs, so it excludes rural areas.
Computer-related

GRAY
Agenda
4.  Job Postings
6.  Summary

Effective Higher Education Marketing: Driven by Data
Presenter: Richard McCulloch | VP, Client Services & Business
Development

Data by Gray/ Marketing by Tribeca
(866)
255-4955
2001 Hollywood Blvd. Suite
209
Hollywood, FL 33020
www.TribecaMarketingGroup.c
om
Richard McCulloch – VP, Client Services
Tribeca Marketing Group/Rolon Group
•  Over 20 years in Campus Operations
•  Admissions, Student Development, Campus President
•  Markets Served: NY, Boston, NJ, South Florida
•  Transitioned to Higher Ed Marketing 2014
•  Newest Service: MAC (Marketing and Admissions Coaching)

(866)
255-4955
209
Hollywood, FL 33020
om
What does the data offered by Gray & Associates lend to the
Higher Education Marketing process?
•  Labor Demand/Employment Data – Does the institution have
the right programs for the markets they serve?
•  Inquiry Costs – How realistic is your marketing budget?
•  Inquiry Types – What sources are yielding the best volume
and conversion opportunities?
•  Regional Metrics – Is your institution strategizing based on the
specific needs and characteristics of your service area?
•  Overall Higher Ed Trends – Is your marketing message and
integrated strategy effectively communicating the value
proposition of your institution?

(866)
255-4955
209
Hollywood, FL 33020
om
Goal of Higher Ed Marketing
Effectively communicate the value of attending an
institution in order to motivate engagement and heighten
probability of enrollment.

(866)
255-4955
209
Hollywood, FL 33020
om
Labor Demand Data – Marketing Strategy
Video engagement continues to grow on digital platforms
and in email marketing. It is important to craft video
testimonials from both graduates and employers, especially
in high-demand programs.

(866)
255-4955
209
Hollywood, FL 33020
om
Inquiry Costs/Types – Marketing Strategy
Investing in assets to supplement internal training and
coaching can greatly enhance inquiry conversions and
thus maximize marketing ROI

(866)
255-4955
209
Hollywood, FL 33020
om
Regional Metrics – Marketing Strategy
To further prove the value of your institution as the school of
choice for students seeking a fulfilling academic
experience, partnering with corporations that operate in
the industries for which you provide programs of study is an
important enhancement that lends itself to marketing.

(866)
255-4955
209
Hollywood, FL 33020
om
Thank
you
so
much
for
your
/me
and

a2en/on!

Let’s
con/nue
the
conversa/on…

954-‐495-‐0932
or
rm@tribecamarke/nggroup.com

www.tribecamarke/nggroup.com

GRAY
Agenda
4.  Job Postings
6.  Summary

GRAY
Key Demand Trends and Observations
June generally underperformed.
§  Inquiry volumes fell 7%.
─  Both on-campus and online declined.
§  One of the few bright spots this month was that Branded grew 36%.
§  Conversions of March inquiries were down 16% YoY.
─  However, conversions of March online inquiries were up 1%.
─  It is too early to tell if April 2016 will reach last year’s levels.
§  After a decrease last month, average inquiry prices increased, and were once
again over $45.
§  Last quarter: Higher degree levels were flat; Associate’s fell 29%
§  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions.
─  Where to focus your marketing—by program and market
─  What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow

GRAY
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836

GRAY
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
Please join us next month!
August Webcast
(July Results)
Thursday, August 25th at 2:00 PM EDT

2016 June GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

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2016 June GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education