Presentation at STEPS Centre Water Seminar, 16 November 2010. Dr Undala Alam, Queen's University

1. India and Pakistan’s truculent cooperation:
Is 50 years enough?
Dr Undala Alam
Queen’s University, Belfast
Institute for Development Studies
Brighton, 16 November 2010

4. Improbable cooperation
• Conflict
▫ August 1947 Partition divides Punjab and irrigation system – headworks
to India, canals to Pakistan
▫ 1 April 1948, East Punjab (India) closes tap on Sutlej
▫ Mayhem. Disrupted production systems, refugees. Profound
vulnerability.
• Cooperation
▫ 1948-51 bilateral efforts fail.
▫ 1952-60 Multilateral talks with World Bank mediating succeed. Sign
Indus Waters Treaty, 19 Sept 1960

6. The Indus Waters Treaty
Articles
I. Definitions
II. Provisions Regarding Eastern Rivers
III. Provisions Regarding Western Rivers
IV. Provisions Regarding Eastern Rivers and Western Rivers
V. Financial Provisions
VI. Exchange of Data
VII. Future Co-operation
VIII. Permanent Indus Commission
IX. Settlement of Differences and Disputes
X. Emergency Provision
XI. General Provisions
XII. Final Provisions
Annexures
A. Exchange of notes between Government of India and Government of Pakistan
B. Agricultural use by Pakistan from certain tributaries of the Ravi [Article II (3)]
C. Agricultural use by India from the Western Rivers [Article III (2)(c)]
D. Generation of hydro-electric power by India on the Western Rivers [Article III (2)(d)]
E. Storage of waters by India on the Western Rivers [Article III (4)]
F. Neutral expert [Article IX (2)]
G. Court of Arbitration [Article IX (5)]
H. Transitional arrangements [Article II (5)]

7. Hydrologic ‘divorce’
• Sun Bright Rivers Can Jive Indefinitely - Sutlej Beas Ravi Chenab Jhelum Indus
• Assets
▫ India: 3 Eastern rivers – Sutlej, Beas, Ravi (20%)
▫ Pakistan: 3 Western rivers – Chenab, Jhelum, Indus (80%)
▫ Equitable utilisation* AND appreciable harm*
 Permit India’s new uses
 Protect Pakistan’s existing uses and new ones
• Money
▫ India: US$ 175 million
▫ Pakistan: IBF US$ 838 million, India c.£62 million
• Talk
▫ Permanent Indus Commission (PIC)
▫ Notification*
▫ Dispute resolution – Neutral Expert, Court of Arbitration

8. Not enough
• Recent and persistent calls to
revoke it
• India: Pakistan attacks us
▫ Indian parliament 2001
▫ Mumbai 2008
• Pakistan: India steals our water
▫ Baglihar (Chenab) 2005
▫ Kishanganga (Jhelum) 2010
• J&K: We was robbed
▫ Treaty ignores us
▫ Our water, our electricity

9. Dams are good
• Climate change recast dams
▫ Hydroelectricity as carbon neutral = good
▫ Water storage – safeguard against variability
▫ But previous problems not disappeared
• Himalayas = HYDROPOWER + STORAGE
▫ Increasing demand for energy/water
▫ India/Pakistan – programme of development
• More controversial dams en route

10. Is the Treaty upto it?
• Negotiated not fought (12 years)
• Signed & ratified
▫ Backdated to 1 April 1960 - temporary agreements
▫ Predates 3 principles in 1997 Draft UN Convention on the Law of Non-
Navigational Uses of International Watercourses*
• Implemented within allotted time (10 years)
• Maintained (50 years)
▫ HOT: Survives three wars (1965, 1971, 1999), nuclear arms race (c.80 warheads
each), military skirmishes
▫ WORDS: Controversial dams (Baglihar, Kishanganga)
▫ Pakistan’s economic survival – alternative Ad hoc Agreements (Suhrawardy)
▫ Increased water to India

11. Baglihar dam
• Salman, S. (2008) The Baglihar difference and its resolution process: A triumph for the Indus
Waters Treaty? Water Policy 10, 105-117.
• India: Run-of-river HEP, Chenab river in J&K
▫ 144.5 m high
▫ Installed capacity 450 MW, final 900 MW
▫ Planned late 1990s, started 2002
• Pakistan: Contravenes IWT under Annex D (Para 8) following criteria:
▫ (a) Operating pool can be raised artificially
▫ (c) Operating pool too big
▫ (e) Gated spillway – existence & height
▫ (f) Turbines’ intake too low

12. Resolution process
• Bilateral: India/Pakistan discuss in PIC
• Multilateral:
▫ Jan 2005: Pakistan unhappy, asks Bank to intervene
▫ India disagrees: still ‘question’ not a ‘difference’
▫ 3 rounds to agree on intervention
▫ Pakistan – legal, India – engineering
• Bank’s involvement
▫ 1st request since Sept 1960
▫ Use ICSID rules to determine ‘consultation’: Names, transparency
(writing, share documents, all parties in meetings)
▫ May 2005: India/Pakistan agree to a Neutral Expert – Prof. Raymond
Lafitte

13. Process cont.
• 1st meeting: June 2005, Paris. NE meets India/Pakistan. India submits documents,
Pakistan responds, India responds
• Site visit: Early Oct 2005. NE with Indian/Pakistani delegations visits Baglihar dam.
• 2nd meeting: Late Oct 2005, Geneva. NE meets India/Pakistan to discuss issues
arising from site visit.
• 3rd meeting: May 2006, London. India/Pakistan presented their views.
• 4th meeting: Oct 2006, Paris. NE presents draft detemination to India/Pakistan
• 5th meeting: Nov 2006, Washington DC. India/Pakistan present comments.
• Final determination: February 2007.

14. NE’s determination
• Criteria under which IWT contravened
▫ (a) Operating pool can be raised artificially
▫ (c) Operating pool too big
▫ (e) Gated spillway – existence & height
▫ (f) Turbines’ intake too low
• Determination
1. Max. design flood: India’s higher value (16,500 m3/s) was prudent due to
uncertainties arising from flood analysis and climate change
2. Spillway, ungated or gated: Gates due to site conditions, otherwise risk flooding.
Alternative is a higher crest but more expensive.
3. Spillway, level of the gates: India’s design as okay, but lower by 8 m to protect
against upstream flooding
4. Water level’s artificial raising : India lower crest from 844.5 m asl to 843 m asl
5. Pondage: Fixed max. pondage size lower than both India/Pakistan’s values
6. Power intakes’ level: India to raise level by 3 m to 821 m asl

15. Conclusion
• Can India/Pakistan negotiate a better deal today?
• NO.
• IWT is well crafted –
▫ Recognises countries’ limitation
▫ Ensures access to water
▫ Acknowledges limits to knowledge
▫ Leaves the door open to the future
• Cooperation = political will
▫ India: Jawaharlal Nehru – Manmohan Singh
▫ Pakistan: Ayub Khan – Asif Zardari