Talk by Melissa Leach, STEPS Director, at the conference ‘Modelling Futures: Understanding risk and uncertainty’ on 28-30 September. http://www.crassh.cam.ac.uk/events/1133

1. Imagining and negotiating pathways in an age of anxiety and incomplete knowledge Melissa Leach CRASSH Conference Cambridge, September 2010

2. Complex global dynamics An age of anxiety and incomplete knowledge A search for ‘solutions’

3. A pathways approach

14. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes Dealing with incomplete knowledge RISK AMBIGUITY UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE

15. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes Dealing with incomplete knowledge In narratives about H1N1 RISK AMBIGUITY UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE ostensibly definitive quantitative probabilistic models of risk pandemic or not? impacts of veterinary controls? behaviour change in crisis? interplay in viral ecology / genetics immuno -compromisation ? define ‘outbreak’: distributional consequences? mortality / morbidity? vulnerable groups? economic costs? livelihoods impacts? new strains of the virus? unexpected transmission vectors? unanticipated health outcomes? complex social interactions? entirely novel pathogens?

16. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes Dimensions of incomplete knowledge in narratives about GM crops in African settings RISK AMBIGUITY UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE specified probabilities of Identified potential harms (toxicity, genetic escape) unknown probabilities of identified potential harms in particular African agro-ecological and social contexts different terms of discussion; e.g. production vs. political economy or gender relations unforeseen impacts; e.g. synergistic effects between seeds and diverse bodies/ environments

17. unproblematic problematic unproblematic problematic knowledge about likelihoods knowledge about outcomes RISK UNCERTAINTY AMBIGUITY IGNORANCE decision rules aggregative analysis deliberative process political closure reductive modeling stochastic reasoning rules of thumb insurance ` evidence-basing agenda-setting horizon scanning transdisciplinarity liability law harm definitions indicators / metrics institutional remits Powerful pressures to ‘close down’ towards risk