The October 2016 spectrum auction in India ended in failure as none of the 700MHz spectrum was sold. ICT development failure as none of the 700MHz spectrum was sold rusulting in negative consequences for mobile users, a blow to ICT development in India and failure to deliver National Telecoms Policy 2012. The auction also failed in fiscal terms because of its failure to reach the revenue target from the sale of spectrum. Based on advice from TRAI, the Government of India planned to raise Rs 536,239 crores (US$ 80 bn) but only raised Rs 65,789 crores (US$ 10 bn).
23. The growth in data traffic far outpaces growth in revenue: There is
little incremental revenue from data
In mobile markets world-wide, mobile
data growth is exponential. This
growth is likely continue and India is
no exception.
However, revenue growth - if any - is
minimal compared to the growth in
data volume.
The notion that investment in LTE
generates much additional revenue is
erroneous.
22
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Revenue
Data traffic
Relationship between mobile revenue
and mobile data volume
28. Some operators had indicated that at the proposed reserve price for
700MHz spectrum they will not bid for this spectrum
Competitive advantage gained may
not justify the reserve prices
We have seen already multiple cases
of unsold spectrum in India,
indicating a flaw in the methodology
used to set reserve prices.
If the NPV of the benefits gained
from competitive advantage resulting
from the acquisition of 700MHz
spectrum outweighs the NPV of the
reserve price and deployment costs,
operators will not bid.
27
45. The reserve prices for 700MHz proposed by TRAI are out of
proportion to the cash generated by the Indian mobile industry
The reserve prices for spectrum
recommended by TRAI are unrealistic
INR 5,362 billion is equivalent to:
– Over twice the annual industry
revenue
– 22 years' worth of operating free cash
flow
44
ReservePrices
Industry
Revenue
Where will the cash come from?
Mobile industry pre-tax operating free
cash flow (EBITDA minus capex)
55. The reserve prices for 700MHz proposed by TRAI are out of
proportion to the cash generated by the Indian mobile industry
The reserve prices for spectrum
recommended by TRAI are unrealistic
INR 5,362 billion is equivalent to:
– Over twice the annual industry
revenue
– 22 years' worth of operating free cash
flow
54
ReservePrices
Industry
Revenue
Where will the cash come from?
operating free cash flow
(EBITDA minus capex)
56. The reserve prices for 700MHz proposed by TRAI carry a high risk of
a failed auction
The prices for spectrum recommended by
TRAI are unrealistic
Over twice the annual industry revenue
22 years' worth of operating free cash flow
The risk of auction failure is high
Failure to sell all the spectrum
Failure to raise the cash
Failure to deliver the National Telecoms Policy
Not getting the 700MHz deployed would be a
failure to take account of the needs of the
unconnected, i.e. the very people who could
benefit the most
55
58. Setting reserve prices for 700MHz spectrum consistent with policy
objectives will guarantee success and generate immediate revenue
Setting reserve prices at a level that guarantees
success is highly likely to deliver higher
budgetary receipts
There are 7 blocks of 2x5MHz on offer. There
are around 8 potential bidders per circle.
The economics of LTE mean that each bidder
would like at least two blocks, i.e. aggregate
demand will be at least for 16 blocks.
Demand for 16 blocks is much higher than the
supply of 7 blocks. Prices will tick up in the
auction until a true market value is found.
The auction would be a success for the users of
mobile broadband, policy makers and operators.
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59. Setting a realistic price is likely to increase immediate auction
receipts and deliver multiplier gains
A potential scenario: Reserve price at 10% of
the TRAI recommended figure
All seven blocks are sold 50% above the reserve
price, the auction receipts amount to INR 649
billion.
There would be multiplier gains well in excess of
the immediate auction receipts.
– Increase in GPD and associated tax receipts.
– Increased competition because more
operators will have acquired spectrum which
is likely to result in consumer surplus due to
lower retail prices.
– Rural India would get access to mobile
broadband faster, thus enabling Digital India.
58
60. Selling just one or two blocks of 700MHz spectrum at the proposed
reserve prices is highly unlikely
Deploying LTE is just one block is
highly inefficient, operators would
want two blocks.
At the recommended reserve price
two 700MHz blocks nation-wide
would cost INR 1,143 billion.
India’s biggest operator, Bharti Airtel,
has a revenue of around 600 billion,
the licence would be almost 2 times
annual revenue and 10 years’ worth
of operating free cash flow.
Looking at the other end of the scale,
the state owned operators generate a
revenue from mobile of around INR
132 billion. The licence would
represent over 8 times their annual
revenue.
All of the 700MHz is likely to remain
unsold, generating zero revenue for
the government.
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64. A simple valuation problem
What would you rather have?
US$ 10,000 today
or
US$ 100,000 in three years
63
65. The auction objective in Chile focussed on maximising the net
present value of the spectrum and NPT-2012 sets the same objective
NPT-2012 recognises that
maximising the NPV of spectrum is
the key objective
“The primary objective of NTP-2012 is
maximizing public good by making
available affordable, reliable and secure
telecommunication and broadband
services across the entire country.
The main thrust of the Policy is on the
multiplier effect and transformational
impact of such services on the overall
economy.”
64
67. Recommendations for setting reserve prices for spectrum
In a spectrum auction, reserve prices should be set
to deliver policy objectives, namely the
maximisation of net present value (NPV) for India.
– The NPV of spectrum for India consists of the
immediate auction receipts, and the much larger
multiplier effect.
A successful auction encourages participation to
ensure that demand for spectrum exceeds supply.
This means operators will bid up the price to a
level where supply equals demand. This is the
market value of spectrum.
Setting prices above the industry free operating
cash flow carries a high risk of auction failure.
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70. You are in a desert and about to die of thirst; what is the value of a
bottle of water to you?
You are in a desert and about to die
of thirst.
Someone is offering to sell you a
bottle of water for $1,000 and you
happen to have $1,000 on you.
Would you pay?
If yes, the value of the bottle of water
to you under these circumstances
would be $1,000.
Does that represent the market value
of a bottle of water?
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71. TRAI calculates the reserve price for 700MHz based on prices paid for
1800MHz spectrum
“The Authority recommends that
reserve price of 700 MHz band should
be equal to four times reserve price of
1800 MHz.”
However, from an operator perspective
there is no linkage between prices paid
for 1800MHz in the past with the value
operators may attach to 700MHz
spectrum.
At the time of the 1800MHz auctions,
operators had no choice but to buy
the spectrum. Without the spectrum
they could not have continued
operations.
Therefore the value of the spectrum
to operators at that time was the
value of the entire business in that
circle.
The business case for acquiring
700MHz spectrum is very different
and hence the value of 700MHz
spectrum to operators is different.
70
72. The notion that low band spectrum is more valuable that high band
spectrum does not meet the reality test
The 2015 multi-band auction in Germany resulted in higher prices for 1800MHz
compared to 700 and 900Mhz spectrum.
71
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 97 105113121129137145153161169177
€Million
Round #
700MHz 900MHz
1800MHz 1500MHz
Average per block prices 2015 auction Germany
€/MHz/pop
700MHz 0.21
900MHz 0.24
1800MHz 0.30
1500MHz 0.10
73. The 900MHz and 1800MHz spectrum were renewals and the 700Mhz
and 1500MHz was new spectrum
72
€/MHz/pop
Reserve
Price
Price
Paid
900MHz 0.093 0.24
1800MHz 0.044 0.30
700MHz 0.093 0.21
1500MHz 0.046 0.10
Renewal of existing
licences, required for
business continuity
New spectrum,
auctioned for the first
time
74. Comparing the 2010 and 2015 auctions provides a good illustration
that prices for spectrum are driven by the value operators attach to it
A comparison of the 800MHz (2010)
and 700MHz (2015) spectrum
auctions in Germany provides a good
example.
– 2010: 2x30 MHz of 800MHz
spectrum on offer alongside other
spectrum
– 2015: 2x30MHz of 700MHz
spectrum on offer alongside other
spectrum
800MHz and 700MHz spectrum have
similar propagation characteristics.
From a technical perspective there is
little difference between the two
bands.
Did operators pay similar prices for
the spectrum?
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75. Prices paid in the past are no indication of the value of spectrum to
operators in future auctions
Many sources of value which were
present in the 800MHz auction were
not present in the 700MHz auction
and there were some other
situational differences.
Consequently the price paid for
– 800MHz spectrum in 2010 was
€0.73/MHz/pop
– 700MHz in 2015 was only
€0.21/MHz/pop.
This example illustrates that it would
be wrong to use the 800MHz prices
paid to set the reserve price for
700MHz spectrum.
The same holds true in general:
Prices paid in the past are no
indication of the value of spectrum to
operators in future auctions.
Therefore benchmarking is not a
suitable methodology to establish
reserve prices.
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76. As long as demand exceeds supply, low reserve prices do not lead to
low auction proceeds
Despite a reserve price
of less than 1 cent per
MHz / pop, the 2010
auction produced very
high price for 800MHz
spectrum.
There was demand for 8
blocks but only 6 blocks
were available.
75
0.004
0.103
0.91
0.21
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
800MHz 2010 700MHz 2015
US$/MHz/Pop
Reserve Price Price Paid
2010 and 2015 auctions in Germany, reserve
prices and prices paid compared
77. Conclusions
The value of spectrum does not depend solely
on propagation characteristics, other factors are
larger.
Prices paid in the past are no indication of the
value of spectrum to operators in future
auctions.
When demand exceeds supply, prices paid for
spectrum will be high even if reserve prices are
low.
76