Webinar Series on COVID-19 and Inequality, 6 May 2021, More information at: https://www.oecd.org/wise/events/covid-and-inequality-webinars.htm

1. The Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Market
Outcomes of Migrants and Refugees
Herbert Brücker
OECD Webinar on the Impact of COVID-19 on Migrant Health and Labour
Market Outcomes
OECD, May 6, 2021
Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg
Berlin Institute for empirical Integration- and Migration Research (BIM)
Humboldt University Berlin

2. Contents
1. Unequal consequences of the German COVID-19 shock
2. Characteristics of migrant labor force
3. Adjustment at internal margin
4. Adustment at external margin
5. Conclusions
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3. Unequal consequences of the
German COVID-19 shock

4. Change of employment rates by nationality, 2019 and 2020
Change of employment rate vis-à-vis pre-year month in percentage points
Sources: BA employment statistics, Central Foreigner Register, own calculations. 2

5. Decomposition of the output shock, Q1/2020 - Q3/2020
Change vis-à-vis pre-year quarter in percent
Formula: ∆Y
Y = ∆Y /H
Y /H + ∆H/L
H/L + ∆L/LF
L/LF + ∆L
L
Sources: DESTATIS, National Accounts, 3. Quarter 2020, BA Employment Statistics, own calculations. 3

6. Decomposition of output shock weighted by sectoral employ-
ment shares of nationality groups Change Q2/20 vs. Q2/19 in %
Sources: DESTATIS, National Accounts, 3. Quarter 2020, BA Employment Statistics, own calculations.
4

7. Characteristics of migrant labor
force

8. Home-office compatibility and system-relevance of jobs
Shares among employees of population group in percent
Sources: Special COVID-19 Surveys of IAB-SOEP Migration Sample, IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Refugee Survey, SOEP-CORE, own calculations.
5

9. Skill requirement and task content of job
Shares among employees of population group in percent
Sources: Special COVID-19 Surveys of IAB-SOEP Migration Sample, IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Refugee Survey, SOEP-CORE, own calculations.
6

10. Contract-type, temporary agency work, tenure & company size
Shares among employees of population group in percent, mean job tenure in years
Sources: Special COVID-19 Surveys of IAB-SOEP Migration Sample, IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Refugee Survey, SOEP-CORE, own calculations.
7

11. Adjustment at internal margin

12. Homeoffice shares and home-office compatibility, summer 2020
Shares in homeoffice and with homeoffice compatible jobs (> 75%) by migration
status in percent
Sources: Special COVID-19 surveys of SOEP, IAB-SOEP-migration sample and IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Refugee Survey, own calculations..
8

13. What impacts probability of working in homeoffice?
Probability of employees working in homeoffice in percentage points
Variable Coef. SE
migration status (ref: natives)
migrant (w/o refugee) 0.31 1.66
refugee -12.43 *** 2.66
female -2.12 1.83
minor-aged children in household 6.75 *** 1.75
female × kids in household -1.03 2.44
education level (ref.: low)
medium -1.06 1.74
high 13.96 *** 2.23
skill requirement of job (ref.: low/assistant)
professional (”Fachkraft”) 1.07 1.43
expert/specialist 15.86 *** 2.51
task content of job (ref.: analytical non-routine task)
interactive non-routine task -5.73 *** 2.87
cognitive routine task -10.07 *** 2.35
manual non-routine task -18.14 *** 2.73
manual routine task -20.30 *** 2.63
job tenure (ref.: less than 1 year)
1 - 3 years -0.30 2.12
more than 3 years -3.31 2.19
fixed-term contract -2..39 2.16
temporary-agency work -3.57 3.18
firm size (ref.: less than 10 employees)
11 - 100 employees 3.47 * 1.88
more than 100 employees 8.49 *** 1.93
job system-relevant 0.63 1.53
BIBB-BUA homeoffice-compatibility of job
(ref.: less than 25% of tasks can be performed at home)
25% to 75% -2.84 2.11
more than 75% 16.01 *** 3.05
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14. Short-time work
Share of workers in short-time work by migration status in percent
Sources: Special COVID-19 surveys of SOEP, IAB-SOEP-migration sample and IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Refugee Survey, own calculations..
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15. What impacts probability of short-time work?
Probability of working short-time in percentage points
Variable Coef. SE
migration status (ref: natives)
migrant (w/o refugee) 4.75 *** 1.77
refugee 1.35 3.90
female -1.29 1.87
minor-aged children in household 1.08 1.99
female × kids in household 0.27 2.49
education level (ref.: low)
medium 1.82 3.03
high -1.59 3.22
skill requirement of job (ref.: low/assistant)
professional (”Fachkraft”) -1.33 2.58
expert/specialist 0.99 2.17
task content of job (ref.: analytical non-routine task)
interactive non-routine task 1.50 2.42
cognitive routine task -1.31 3.21
manual non-routine task 5.47 * 2.81
manual routine task -3.21 3.57
job tenure (ref.: less than 1 year)
1 - 3 years 1.38 2.44
more than 3 years 0.99 2.17
fixed-term contract 1.13 2.47
temporary-agency work 1.51 4.68
firm size (ref.: less than 10 employees)
11 - 99 employees -3.10 2.63
100 and more employees -8.61 *** 2.54
job system-relevant -6.23 *** 1.60
BIBB-BUA homeoffice-compatibility of job
(ref.: less than 25% of tasks can be performed at home)
25% to 75% -1.33 2.58
more than 75% -0.99 2.96
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16. Changes in overtime- and contractual working hours
Shares with decreases and increases of working hours by migration status in percent
Sources: Special COVID-19 surveys of SOEP, IAB-SOEP-migration sample and IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Refugee Survey, own calculations..
12

17. Adustment at external margin

18. Evolution of unemployment rates, 2019- 2020
Change of unemployment rate vis-à-vis pre-year month by nationality in percent
Sources: BA Unemployment Statistics, Central Register of Foreigners, own calculations. 13

19. Decomposition of (net) transition into unemployment
Net inflow into unemployment 2020 by previous state in percentage points
0.6
1.1
3.3
1.5
0.6
1.7
0.9
1.2
-0.0
0.0
2.2
0.2
-0.0
-0.2
0.2
0.3
German
EU-28
asylum-seeker c.
other foreigners
EU-28
asylum-seeker c.
other foreigners
-1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0
total from employment
from program/training
German
from non-employment
Sources: BA Unemployment Statistics, own calculations. 14

20. Evolution of program participation 2020
Index: January 2020 = 100
Sources: BA program statistics (special provision 2020), own calculations.
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21. Program status of refugee population 2020
Status in % of program participants and participation in % of refugee population
Sources: Special COVID-19 Survey of IAB-BAMF-SOEP Refugee Survey, own calculations.
16

22. Impact of pandemic on language proficiency of refugees
Shares of respondents in percent
Sources: Special COVID-19 Survey of IAB-BAMF-SOEP Refugee Survey, own calculations.
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23. Conclusions

24. Five takeaways
1. The German economy has largely adusted at internal margin to
COVID-19 shock, which benefitted disproportionally native workers
2. Employment rates of migrants and refugees respond more elastically
to lockdown and its end, but have remained stable at macro level
3. Unemployment rates of refugees and migrants have disproportionally
increased which can be traced back inter alia to shut down of
integration- and labor market programs
4. At the internal margin, natives benefit disproportionally from
adustment via productivity decline and homeoffice, while refugees
and other migrants are disproportionally affected by STW and
reduction in working hours
5. At the external margin, refugee and migrant jobs are more
vulnerable due to brief job tenure, fixed-term contracts, small
company size and skill requirements and task contents of jobs
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25. Many thanks for your attention!
Contact: herbert.bruecker@hu-berlin.de
herbert.bruecker@iab.de
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26. Transition into employment and non-employment
2020 and 2019 transitions vis-à-vis previous year in % of non-employed and employed
Sources: Special COVID-19 Survey of IAB-BAMF-SOEP Refugee Survey, own calculations.
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27. Determinants of transition into non-employment
Effect on probability of transition into non-employment in percentage points
Variable Coef. SE
migration status (ref: natives)
migrant (w/o refugee) 0.82 0.98
refugee 7.62 *** 2.82
female 0.90 1.19
minor-aged children in household -1.78 1.22
female × kids in household 1.53 1.50
education level (ref.: low)
medium -3.09 2.17
high -2.40 2.29
skill requirement of job (ref.: low/assistant)
professional (”Fachkraft”) -4.47 ** 1.77
expert/specialist -5.88 *** 1.88
task content of job (ref.: analytical non-routine task)
interactive non-routine task -5.73 *** 2.87
cognitive routine task -0.66 1.00
manual non-routine task -2.07 1.52
manual routine task -4.64 ** 2.08
job tenure (ref.: less than 1 year)
1 - 3 years -4.98 1.69
more than 3 years -6.14 *** 1.59
fixed-term contract 6.64 *** 1.99
temporary-agency work 2.91 3.70
firm size (ref.: less than 10 employees)
11 - 100 employees -3.05 *** 1.69
more than 100 employees -6.14 *** 1.59
job system-relevant -2.25 ** 0.90
BIBB-BUA homeoffice-compatibility of job
(ref.: less than 25% of tasks can be performed at home)
25% to 75% -3.67 2.38
more than 75% -4.82 * 3.05
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28. Determinants of transition into employment
Effect on probability of transition into employment in percentage points
Variable Coef. SE
migration status (ref: natives)
migrant (w/o refugee) -4.81 3.72
refugee -28.06 *** 4.81
female -12.06 *** 3.87
minor-aged children in household 5.84 4.07
female × kids in household -3.48 4.88
education level (ref.: low)
medium 1.05 3.05
high 12.53 *** 3.58
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