Presentation by the Co-President of the Club of Rome for Springtij Forum 2015, Terschelling, 26 September 2015

1. ”Climate and jobs winners by
moving towards a circular
economy”
comments by Anders Wijkman, Co-
President of the Club of Rome, at Springtij
2015.

3.
Projec(ons
that
the
world
economy
will
triple
by
2050.
But
evidence
strong
the
economy
is
on
a
collision
course
with
Nature
• Climate
change,
Ecosystem
decline,
Resource
deple7on
and
Pollu7on
• Con(nued
conven(onal
growth
is
posi(ve
for
poverty
reduc(on
–
but
will
it
last?
–
how
can
it
be
sustainable?
• We
are
in
serious
ecological
overshoot
+
financial
overshoot
• Add
to
that
a
series
of
social
challenges,
like
unemployment,
social
exclusion
and
increasing
income
dispari(es
+
a
number
of
disrup(ve
technologies

7. How
did
we
get
here?
• From
a
small
economy
on
a
large
planet
to
…….
• Myth
of
infinite
growth
in
energy
and
material
throughput
• Myth
of
subs(tu(on
between
different
types
of
resources
• Cheap
energy
and
commodi(es
• Externali(es
most
oPen
not
addressed
• Technology
• Logic
of
consumer
society
to
maximise
throughput
• Short
temism
• Financial
system
ignores
ecological
–
and
social
-­‐
risks
• Global
economy
requires
Global
society
–
but
nowhere
to
be
seen
Place
where
you
are
7

8. Growth
and
development
during
Industrializa(on
was
impressive;
Growth
in
GDP
has
served
us
well
Now
we
are
in
a
different
phase,
however,
and
a
different
logic
is
needed
to
tackle
a
host
of
issues

9. 30-­‐09-­‐15
Johan
Rockström
and
Carl
Folke,
Stockholm
Resilience
Centre
Humanity
has
reached
a
planetary
satura(on
point
The
Human
ability
to
do
has
vastly
outstripped
our
ability
to
understand
A
resilient
biosphere
the
basis
for
humen
development
Fierce
urgency
of
now
A
great
transforma(on
to
global
sustainability
necessary,
possible,
and
desirable

11. ”Decoupling” – a challenge
• Ever
since
Bruntland
Report
”decoupling”
has
been
seen
as
THE
SOLUTION
to
address
environment
and
resource
constraints
• Rela(ve
de-­‐coupling
is
happening
–
but
absolute
de-­‐coupling
is
far
away
• Efficiency
gains
normally
eaten
up
by
con(nued
economic
growth
and
the
rebound
effect
• Efficiency
is
crucial
but
must
be
achieved
within
a
differently
organized
economy,
i
e
by
doing
the
right
things

15. Decoupling
priority
from
Bruntland
and
onwards
• Bruntland
Report
• European
Governments
adopted
policies
for
decoupling
• Factor
4;
Factor
10
Club
• Integrated
Product
Policy
(EC
2003)
–
but
shelved
• Ecodesign
direc(ve
• Biomimicry
,
Blue
Economy,
Factor
5
• Planetary
Boundaries
• EC
Resource
Efficient
Europe
(Potochnik)
• Ellen
Mac
Arthur
Founda(on/McKinsey
reports
• WRAP
reports
• Club
of
Rome
reports

21. The
ques(on
we
have
to
put:
• What´s
the
purpose
of
the
economy?
To
make
1%
-­‐
or
even
less
-­‐
significantly
richer
or?
• The
goal
ought
to
be
”Social
sustainability”
–
i
e
meaningful
employment
for
as
many
as
possible
and
a
fair
distribu(on
of
income
–
while
respec(ng
the
Planetary
Boundaries.
• The
economy
then
is
a
tool
box
• Today
the
equa(on
is
more
or
less
the
other
way
around
-­‐
the
growth
of
the
economy
is
the
goal

22. The
Green
economy
discourse
-­‐
a
paradigm
change
Current
economy
Green,
inclusive
economy
GDP growth: more economic activity
the aim
‘Beyond GDP’: prosperity the aim
Short-termism Long-termism
Maximisation of return Safeguarding of long-term incomes
Shareholder value Stakeholder value: benefit to society
Extraction of natural resources Management of natural resources
Linear production systems Circular production systems
Short-life products for sale Long-life services
Efficiency measured in monetary
terms (CBA)
Multidimensional efficiency (e.g. multi-
criterion analysis, MCA)

23. Economics
is
key
to
reform
• A
key
problem
is
the
limited
interest
shown
for
sustainability
by
conven(onal
economists
• Add
to
that
the
lack
of
dialogue
within
the
economic
discipline;
Ecological
economists
have
some
of
the
answers
but
not
listened
to
• Another
problem
has
to
do
with
the
educa(on
of
economists.
To
quote
Cameron
Hepburn,
leading
Bri(sh
economist:
“Economics
today
is
taught
as
if
the
last
thirty
years
did
not
happen”

25. Towards
a
circular/performance
economy
• In
the
biobased
economy
and
in
the
technosphere
• Recycling,
reuse
and
recondi(oning
of
materials
and
components
• From
products
to
services;
Products
to
last
longer
• Service
economy
for
maintenance
and
repair
=
jobs
• Requires
new
business
models
• Rethink
producer
responsibility
• Means
much
less
pressure
on
the
planet
• WHY
is
this
happening
now?
• Problems
we
face
more
obvious
• Digital
economy
facilitates

26.
Ellen
Mac
Arthur
Founda;on
reports
have
had
their
focus
on
the
benefits
for
the
business
community
by
moving
towards
a
circular
econmy;
The
Club
of
Rome
reports
have
their
focus
on
the
wider
benefits
for
society

27. New
Club
of
Rome
study
on
the
social
benefits
of
a
circular
economy
• The
study
is
based
on
a
tradi(onal
Input/Output
Model.
An
assessment
is
made
what
the
likely
effects
would
be
on
carbon
emissions
and
job
opportuni(es
if
the
countries
studied
–
Finland,
France,
the
Netherlands,
Spain
and
Sweden
–
by:
-­‐
enhancing
energy
efficiency
by
25
%
-­‐
increasing
the
renewable
por(on
in
the
energy
mix
by
cupng
fossil
fuel
use
by
50
%
-­‐
enhancing
material
efficiency,
by
a
25
%
overall
increase
and
by
replacing
50
%
of
virgin
materials
with
secondary
materials
+
doubling
the
life-­‐(me
of
long-­‐lived
consumer
products
compared
to
today

32. Spain
Renewable
Case
Energy-­‐
efficiency
Material-­‐
efficiency
All
Three
Combined
Emission
Reduc7on
?
-­‐
50,1
%
-­‐
31
%
-­‐
10
%
-­‐
69
%
Addi7onal
Jobs
?
Up
to
100,000*
+
200,000
+
>
200,000
+
>
400,000
Trade
Balance
Effects
+
0,7
of
GDP
+
0,4
of
GDP
+
>
1
%
of
GDP
+
>
2
%
of
GDP

34. The results are promising
• Very
few
studies
so
far
about
the
effects
at
macro
level
of
greening
the
economy
• Most
climate
change
mi(ga(on
strategies
have
been
sector-­‐based
and
not
addressed
industrial
metabolism
as
such
• The
job
gains
are
very
posi(ve
in
a
situa(on
where
a)
trade
unions
most
oPen
have
viewed
green
policies
as
a
threat,
and
b)
where
automa(on
and
robo(za(on
is
likely
to
do
away
with
huge
number
of
jobs
• But
the
changes
will
not
come
along
by
themselves

38. The
crucial
role
of
poli;cs
• Economic
theory
by
itself
will
not
lead
to
a
transi7on
to
a
sustainable
economy
• The
transi(on
will
require
a
robust
poli7cal
discourse,
based
on
the
principles
of
sustainability
–
notably
the
principles
of
inter-­‐
and
intergenera(onal
equity
as
well
as
the
planetary
boundaries
• How
can
we
develop
a
framework
in
poli(cs
that
respects
the
key
principles
of
sustainability,
notably
the
planetary
boundaries?
• How
can
we
ini(ate
the
necessary
shiZ
in
values?
• Improved
indicators
will
be
key