This document discusses strategies for transitioning communities to more sustainable energy systems. It begins by showing projections for increasing global temperatures if carbon dioxide levels continue rising. It then outlines some options for decarbonizing energy systems by 2030 compared to business as usual scenarios. The rest of the document discusses various policies, programs, technologies and strategies that can be implemented to promote energy efficiency and sustainable energy, including setting targets, improving building standards, developing new business models, addressing customer perceptions, and promoting technology learning and integration. The overall message is that transitioning to sustainable energy will require a combination of effective policies, efficient programs, and engaging all stakeholders.

1. Energizing Communities to
Sustainability
Hans Nilsson
FourFact AB
eceee
IEA DSM Programme
1

2. Mean temperature increase
10
Mean global temperature increase
9
8
7
6 Today
(degrees)
5 CO2 CO2eq. Likely
4 Low end
3 High end
2
1
0
300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
Safe side GHG Concentration ppm (CO2-eq.)
350 ppm IEA WEO
450 ppm 2
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG I, Chapter 10, Table 10.8

3. Means for decarbonising till 2030
compared to BAU
Source: IEA WEO 3
2009

4. 4

5. The EU Challenges -2009
•Internal market
Lisbon •Interconnections
Competitivness
Sustainable Security of
Development supply
•Dialogue
Kyoto •Renewables Moscow
•Storage
•Efficiency •Diversification
5

6. A modest proposal
6

7. With high impact
7

8. À la recherche du temps perdu
Oilcrisis (1973-
Act 1: SAVE OIL AT ANY PRICE
GOVERNEMENTS RESPONSIBILITY
Efficiency (1985-
Act 2: THE MARKET WORKS (ALONE)
(The invisible hand with a green thumb)
Sustainability (2000-
Act 3: ACTIVE LEADERSHIP
(But who ?) 8

9. 9

10. The potential for energy savings
10
Source: http://www.wsed.at/fileadmin/redakteure/WSED/2012/download_presentations/21_Nuij.pdf

11. The potential is > 50%
• Over an investment cycle (Buildings – long
(decades); Industry – short (decade); Transport –
Medium)
• Benefit is normally underestimated (comfort,
security, robustness is not accounted for)
• Costs are normally overestimated (market
learning, routine development is seldom
regarded)
• Planning is normally absent (Building
declarations, Management Systems) since it is
not required or stringently applied
11

12. Not difficult, but complicated
What the customer wants!
Energy Light,
(kWh) Installation Power,
Heat
What the customer ought to get!
Light,
Less Energy
A different Power,
(fewer kWh)
Installation Heat
Comptences to make the changes
Insulation, ventilation, cooling, heating, building, electricity, 12
lighting, plumbing, solar shading, compressed air, control, ICT, etc.

13. Focus and Perseverance
More and more efficient takes you to energy efficiency step by step
Energy TIME
Audit
13

14. Where (in the pipe) should we act?
In the pipe: Efficiency and renewables
Before the pipe: At the end of the pipe:
Sufficiency CCS and cleaning
Beyond the pipe: Geo-engineering
14

15. Creating Markets with Experience
MASSIVE
DEPLOYMENT
15

16. Lessons Learned in technology deployment policies
THE TRIANGULATION MODEL
Industry Strategy
(R&D funding)
R&D-D
Model
Risk, Cost Niche Markets
Barrier MT
Model Model
Information,
Market Framework Marketing Customer/Distributor
(Rules, regulations) (Understand, Address)
16

17. R&D-D
Model
The message of the
learning curve
• Price (Cost) is reduced
Price
by 10-25% by each Challenging New Technology
doubling in
cumulative
volume/sales Incumbent old
technology
(LR=Learning Rate)
• The new technology
might reach a break
even and be
competitive to the old
technology 1 2 Cumulative Sales
Learning curves are straight lines in a double
Logarithmic scale 17

18. 1. The learning investments have to
R&D-D
Model
be covered and recovered
• Learning investments
Price
are not subsidies IF Challenging New Technology
A
they can be Learning investments
anticipated to yield
future profit …and ditto profit
B
• Someone has to start C
the process
• It takes TIME to reach
break even
• The investments Cumulative Sales
might be HUGE
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19. 4. There is always someone to share
R&D-D
Model
the bill
• (I) Government and
companies that have a
Price
Challenging New Technology
“first-mover” interest
• (II) Private sector (users) I Willingness to pay
on niche markets
who have a worse II
III
alternative
• (III) Private sector (users)
who have an interest in
showing leadership
Cumulative Sales
19

20. Comparison of supply side
technologies
20

21. Both Effectiveness and Efficiency
Policies to be
Efficient
Policies to
be
Effective
21
Källa: IEA. Deploying Renewables. Principles for Effective Policies

22. New Technologies will change business
More ICT
New (smaller)
generation units
New applications
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Source: An EPRI Initiative to Advance the Efficient and Effective Use of Energy

23. Local resources change the view
Primary energy Energy sold><
Primary energy > > Energy sold> Energy used
Energy used
Distribu-
ted gen.
PV, wind
etc.
Energy
used
Transfor- Installa- (W)
Primary
mation tion ---
energy Generation Energy sold (Wk) (custom.) (custom.) Service
(Wp)
(N)
Local
heat
source
(G) 23

24. 24
Source: Energistyrelsen, Denmark

25. The Potentials are there – go for the
Acceptance
Result (Efficiency)
=
Potential technology, time
*
Acceptance time; exposure

26. Market Transformation
Market Penetration
Preferred Case
Base case Aggregated
proc. (AP)
& Labels
White Cert.
Technology
Standards Procurement (TP)
& Norms
Product Performance

27. The Issue…
Is not…. Is….
• Awareness (People • Empowerment
know that we are wasting (People do NOT know HOW
energy and roughly also to do it)
where)
• Motivation (People
want to save energy)
Measures and prospects have to be framed according
to how people think and act. 27

28. Perspectives on the market
Standard (Neo)-classical model Behavioural economics model
ECONS HUMANS
• Preferences are constant • Preferences are changing
• The prices contain the • Decisions are biased by the
necessary information way we are treating
• Customers have access to all information
necessary information on • Offers need to be designed
performance and prices (choice architecture)
Good model to estimate Necessary to decide on po-
the potential licies for implementation

29. Mental accounting of losses and gains
Gv
1000 1000
Lv
29

30. Soft
measures
to leverage
the hard
30
Source: http://www.energy-cities.eu/IMG/pdf/Horizon_2020_Energy_Cities_position_paper_final.pdf

31. Soft Measures
• Visioning: setting up long-term energy & climate local
strategies and targets
• Implementation of innovative technologies: uptake
of sustainable energy technologies
• Financial innovation: implementation of innovative
financial instruments, setting up new business models
• Social innovation: inventing and implementing new
local governance, communication, ways of mobilizing
local actors & citizens, changing behaviour, etc.
• Networking: new ways of exchanging knowledge &
innovative practices, taking multi-level actions, etc.
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32. Pulling the pieces together?
• Technology performance (from BAD to BAT to BAT+)
• Technology integration (supply and demand side)
• Address the customer perception of changes
• Planning of changes (macro and micro perspectives)
• Industry learning and applications (business models)
• Policy instruments, both effective and efficient
Check also Concerto:
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http://download.steinbeis-europa.de/concerto/website/CONCERTO_plus_energy-perfom-26_final_long.pdf

33. 33

34. We all have our personal doomsday scenarios
with respect to an extremely “energy hungry” world
Year 1900
Year 1800
Year
2000
CFL
Year 2050
?
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Year 2020, LED

35. And finally…
THANKS FOR
LISTENING !
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