Presentation of the empirical results of a new project on the Rise and Fall of Social Democracy, 1918-2017

1. Rise and Fall of Social Democracy
1918-2017
Simon Hix, LSE
Giacomo Benede2o, Royal Holloway London

2. Mo;va;on
Popular claims about recent changes in European poli;cs
• Collapse of support for the Centre Le?, and par@cularly for social democra@c par@es
• Rise of the Populists (taking votes from Le? and Right)
• Growing fragmenta@on of the vote (na@onally & geographically)
• Increasing electoral vola@lity
How valid are these claims?
What have been the long-term pa2erns?
How can these pa2erns be explained / understood?
What we have done (so far):
1. Describe the trends in European electoral poli@cs over the last 100 years (1918-2017)
2. Inves@gate the determinants of one of the main trends:
the Rise and Fall of Social Democracy (using cross-sec@on @me-series)
Future: individual level data, from public opinion, panel studies etc.
causal iden@fica@on, e.g. looking at cons@tuency level data
other party families, esp. Centre Right (Conserva@ves & Chris@an Democrats)

3. The Cases
31 countries
570 elec@ons
Criteria:
1. Popula@on >500,000 in 2017
2. Democra@c (Polity2 or PolComp >5)
3. ≥20 years of democracy
Country Years counted as democratic Years(N) Elections(N)
Sweden 1918-2017 100 29
Switzerland 1918-2017 100 26
UK 1918-2017 100 26
Ireland 1921-2017 97 30
Finland 1918-39, 1944-2017 96 29
Denmark 1918-39, 1945-2017 95 38
Belgium 1918-38, 1944-2017 95 29
Netherlands 1918-39, 1945-2017 95 27
Norway 1918-39, 1945-2017 95 25
France 1918-39, 1945-2017 95 24
Luxembourg 1918-39, 1945-2017 95 20
Austria 1918-32, 1945-2017 88 26
Germany 1919-32, 1949-2017 83 27
Italy 1918-21, 1946-2017 76 20
Greece 1920-36, 1944-48, 1974-2017 64 24
Hungary 1920-43, 1990-2017 52 12
Czechoslovakia/Cz.Rep 1918-38,1945-46,1990-92,1993-2017 51 13
Cyprus 1970-2017 48 10
Portugal 1975-2017 43 15
Estonia 1918-33, 1991-2017 43 13
Romania 1925-38, 1990-2017 42 14
Latvia 1920-33, 1990-2017 42 13
Spain 1977-2017 41 13
Poland 1918-30, 1990-2017 41 12
Bulgaria 1918-23, 1990-2017 35 11
Croatia 1991-2017 27 8
Macedonia 1991-2017 27 8
Lithuania 1991-2017 27 7
Slovenia 1991-2017 27 7
Albania 1992-2017 26 7
Slovakia 1993-2017 25 7

4. 100 Years of European Electoral Poli;cs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1918
1922
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
Numner of votes Millions
Total votes in elec.ons in 31 European countries, by poli.cal family
AL, AT, BE, BG, HR, CY, CZ, DK, EE, FI, FR, DE, GR, HU, IE, IT, LV, LT, LU, MK, NL, NO, PL, PT, RO, SK, SI, ES, SE, CH, UK
Non voters
Other parPes
Radical Right
Cons/Chr.Dem.
Liberal/Centrist
Regionalist/Nat.
Social Democrat
Green
Radical LeY

5. Others Ways of Telling the Story
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1918 1922 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Percentage of votes
% votes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1918 1922 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Percentage of votes
% votes, excluding non-voters & others

6. Comparing West and East, since 1990
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Percentage of votes
18 West European countries (excl. non voters & others)
AT, BE, CY, DK, FI, FR, DE, GR, IE, IT, LU, NL, NO, PT, ES, SE, CH, UK
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Percentage of votes
13 East European countries (excl. non voters & others)
AL, BG, HR, CZ, EE, HU, LV, LT, MK, PL, RO, SK, SI

7. 14
18
22
26
30
34
1918 1922 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Total share of votes (%) Average share of votes (%)
Total share of electorate (%)
Social Democra;c Votes & Voters

8. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
North Western Europe
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Scandinavia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
Southern Europe
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
Eastern Europe
Different Regional Trends (% votes)
Note: Frac@onal polynomials

9. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sweden (SAP)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
United Kingdom (Labour)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015Germany (SPD)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
Netherlands (SDAP-PvdA)
4 Classic “Rise and Fall” Cases
% votes (solid)
% electorate (dashed)

10. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Greece (UFWFR etc/PASOK-DS/Potami)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Spain (PSOE/PSC)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015Italy (PSI/FdP/PDS-DS-PD)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
Portugal (PS)
A Tale of Two “Souths”
% votes (solid)
% electorate (dashed)

11. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Poland (SLD/UP-LiD-ZL) Hungary (MSZP-Ö)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Czech Republic (ČSSD/ČSS/SDL)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016
Romania (FDSN-PSDR-USL)
19901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016
Slovakia (SDL/SDSS/SDA-Smer)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016
Croatia (SDP)
Varying Trends in Eastern Europe
% votes (solid)
% electorate (dashed)

12. 19401920
19792013
20131996
19511918
19571924
19822015
19352011
20051985
19721933
20022008
19251999
19392015
20111992
19772002
19481922
19811933
20121998
19311987
19922008
19201995
20061939
19811962
19201990
19941923
20121937
20081976
20111996
19191995
20011930
19221933
19852016
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
% of votes
Sweden
Austria
Albania
UK
Norway
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Germany
Macedonia
Belgium
Finland
Croatia
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Greece
Slovakia
Switzerland
Lithuania
Latvia
Hungary
France
Czech
Bulgaria
Romania
Italy
Slovenia
Estonia
Poland
Ireland
Cyprus
Min Mean Max
Peaks and Troughs in SD Support

13. Explaining the (Rise and) Fall of Soc Dems
“Embourgeoisement”
Rising affluence of working class -> middle class aspira@ons
Decline in “core supporters”
Declining employment in manufacturing (and agriculture?)
Declining trade union membership
Strategic dilemmas for Social Democrats (e.g. Przeworski & Sprague, Sassoon)
SD par@es have needed to move to the centre, to appeal to the Middle Class
-> losing Working Class votes, but gaining MC votes
-> poten@al of being “oublanked” by Radical Le?/Right
Interac;on of strategic party behaviour & electoral system (e.g. Iverson & Soskice)
SD par@es are more likely to lose WC votes in PR systems if they move to the centre,
because of the low threshold of entry for par@es (Radical Le?) to their le?

14. More Explana;ons
Conflict within Social Democra;c coali;on (e.g. Kitschelt, Kriesi et al.)
WC remain socially conserva>ve (e.g. an@-immigra@on)
Rise of service sectors, expansion of higher educa@on -> new MC, more socially liberal
Rise of compe;tor par;es, appealing to SD supporters
Greens / Radical Le? -> appeal to new MC
Radical Right -> appeal to old WC
Centre-Right becoming socially-liberal -> taking SD votes from the ‘centre’
Globaliza;on (e.g. Colantone & Stanig)
Growing compe@@on for investment and jobs
threat of capital flight and/or immigra@on
-> threat to economic interests and social values of SD core supporters
Social democra;c success
High public spending, public services, workers’ rights, womens’ rights etc.
-> SDs no-longer needed [nb. controlling for GDP per capita, e.g. Wagner’s Law]

15. Hypotheses and Variables 1
Dependent Variables: Vote share (%) for main SD party in an elec@on (1918-2017)
Electorate share (%) for main SD party in an elec@on (1918-2017)
Embourgeoisement GDP per capita
Life expectancy
ê core supporters % of workforce in industry / agriculture
Trade union density
Strategic dilemmas Le?-right posi@on of SD party (& interacted with District Mag.)
Le?-right posi@on of main Centre Right compe@tor
Conflict in SD coali;on Liberal-authority posi@on of SD party
% of popula@on with higher educa@on
% of popula@on in urban areas
Compe;tor par;es % support for Radical Le?, Greens, Radical Right
Liberal-authority posi@on of Centre Right compe@tor
Effec@ve number of electoral par@es

16. Hypotheses and Variables 2
Globaliza;on Trade: Global trade as % of GDP
Annual trade balance (log)
Immigra@on: Stock: % Foreign-born popula@on
Flow: 5-year net immigra@on (log)
SD success (Post-tax) income inequality (GINI)
Public spending as % of GDP
% Women par@cipa@on in the workforce
Controls Turnout (in % vote share models)
SD government status (in coali@on and/or holding PM)
Econ. performance: GDP growth, unemployment, infla@on
Popula@on (log), Popula@on >65 & 0-14
Society: Majority Catholic, Ethnic/linguis@c frac@onaliza@on
Poli@cal ins@tu@ons: Presiden@alism; Electoral system (DM)
Years of democracy
EU, Eurozone

17. Es;ma;on
Two different types of models
(1)
(2)
Where: V/E is the SocDem Vote share %/Electorate share % in country i at @me t
α is a constant
W is a vector of independent variables
X is a vector of control variables
Y is a vector of @me-invariant control variables
η are country fixed-effects
θ are year and decade fixed-effects
β, ρ, γ, κ are the parameters to be es@mated
ε is the error term
Models are es@mated with and without country-specific @me-trends
(2) is es@mated with panel-corrected standard-errors
V / Eit =α + β1Wit +γΧit +ηi +θt +εit
V / Eit =α + ρV / Eit−1 + β1Wit +γΧit +κϒi +θt +εit

18. Periods and Cases
1918-2017
All 31 countries
Cases of “con@nuous democracy” (11 countries: BE, CH, DK, FI, FR, GB, IE, LU, NL, NO, SE)
1918-1939
Interwar democracies (21 countries: 11+ AT, BG, CZ, DE, EE, GR, HU, LV, PL, RO)
1945-2018
Postwar democracies (14 countries: 11+ AT, DE, IT)
1975-2018
Postwar democracies + Southern Europe (18 countries: 14+ CY, ES, GR, PT)
1990-2018
All 31 countries
Western Europe only (18 countries)
Eastern Europe only (13 countries)

19. Periods and Variables
Period 1918-2017 1918-1939 1945-2017 1975-2017 1990-2017
Cases All countries
N=570
Con@nuous
democracies
N=303
Interwar
democracies
N= 131
Postwar
democracies
N= 277
Post 1975
democracies
N = 207
All countries
N = 223
Independent
variables
Set A
GDP per capita
Public spending
Party compe@@on
Rad.Right %, Rad.LeR %, ENPV
C.Right %, Libs %, Greens %
Poli@cal ins@tu@ons
Presiden>al, Electoral system DM
Years democracy
Time-invariant variables
Catholic, Ethnic/Linguis>c
fract’za>on
Decade fixed-effects
Set B
Set A +
GDP growth
SD party posi@on
CR party posi@on
General LeR-Right,
Economic LeR-Right /
Social Liberal-Authority
SD le?-right posi@on
*Electoral system DM
EU & Eurozone
dummies
Set C
Set B +
Life expectancy
Empl. in industry/agric
Union density
Trade volume/balance
Net immigra@on
Income inequality
Women in work
Unemployment
Urbaniza@on
Pop/n & >65 / 0-14
Set D
Set C +
Foreign born
Infla@on
Youth
unemployment
Higher
educa@on

20. Social changes
0100002000030000
GDPpercapita(maroon)
10
20
30
40
SD%voteshare(red)
19201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015
SD Votes and GDP per capita
10
20
30
40
50
60
SD%voteshare(red)
%Employmentinindustry(green)/%Uniondensity(blue)
1974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016
SD Votes and Manufacturing/Trade Union Decline

21. Average lee-right party posi;ons
Note: Postwar democracies only
Standard devia@ons shown by dashed lines
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Average Le4-Right Loca;on of
Party Manfestos
Social Democrats Centre Right

22. 2025303540
SD%voteshare
-60 -40 -20 0 20
Social Democrat party left-right position (manifesto)
SocDem facing a centrist Centre Right party
SocDem facing a right-wing Centre Right party
Interac;on of SocDem & C.Right lee-right posi;ons

23. 40-50s
60-70s
80-90s
00-10s
40-50s
60-70s
80-90s
00-10s
-20-15-10-505
SocialLeft-Right
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Economic Left-Right
Party posi;ons in 2 dimensions
Average economic and social le?-right posi@ons of
Social Democrat and Centre Right party manifestos (in postwar democracies)

24. No iden;fiable electoral system effect
0204060
SD%voteshare
single member districts proportional

25. 202530354045
SD%voteshare
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20
Social Democratic party economic left-right position
Majoritarian electoral system (DM=1)
Proportional electoral system (DM>9)
But there is an interac;on between
SocDem lee-right posi;on & electoral system
Cases:
Western Europe,
post-1990

26. GDP per capita
(Semi)Presidential system
District magnitude
SocDem in gov (single party)
SocDem in gov (coalition+PM)
SocDem in gov (coalition+junior)
-5 0 5 10 -5 0 5 10
All countries Continuous democracies only
Country FEs Country FEs + other parties
Lagged DV Lagged DV + other parties
Basic results: all elec;ons, 1918-2017
Dependent variable = Social Democra@c party Vote share (%)
Results are the
same for SocDem
Electorate share
(%)
Con@nuous
democracies: BE,
CH, DK, FI, FR, GB,
IE, LU, NL, NO, SE

27. GDP per capita
(Semi)Presidential system
District magnitude
SocDem in gov (single party)
SocDem in gov (coalition+PM)
SocDem in gov (coalition+junior)
Catholic
Ethnic fractionalization
Linguistic fractionalization
-20 0 20 40 -20 0 20 40
% SD vote share % SD electorate share
Country FEs Lagged DV
Interwar democracies: 1918-1939
AT, BE, BG, CH, CZ, DE, DK, EE, FI, FR, GB, GR, HU, IE, LU, LV, NL, NO, PL, RO, SE

28. Radical Left vote share
Greens vote share
Liberals vote share
Centre Right vote share
Radical Right vote share
-.8 -.6 -.4 -.2 0 .2
Country FEs Lagged DV
Compe;tor par;es: 1918-2017
Dependent variable = SocDem party Vote share (%), Con@nuous democracies only

29. Radical Left vote share
Liberals vote share
Centre Right vote share
Radical Right vote share
Greens vote share
Radical Left vote share
Liberals vote share
Centre Right vote share
Radical Right vote share
Greens vote share
-1.2 -1 -.8 -.6 -.4 -.2 0 .2 -1.2 -1 -.8 -.6 -.4 -.2 0 .2
1918-1939 1945-1969
1970-1989 1990-2017
Country FEs Lagged DV
Compe;tor par;es: periods compared
14 common cases: AT, DE, BE, CH, DK, FI, FR, GB, IE, IT, LU, NL, NO, SE
Dependent variable = Social Democrat party Vote share (%)

30. Radical Left vote share
Greens vote share
Liberals vote share
Centre Right vote share
Radical Right vote share
-2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5 -2 -1.5 -1 -.5 0 .5
Western Europe Eastern Europe
Country FEs Lagged DV
Compe;tor par;es, 1990-2017: West v. East
Dependent variable = Social Democrat party Vote share (%)

31. Social Democrat left-right position
Centre Right left-right position
SD economic left-right position
CR economic left-right position
SD liberal-authority position
CR liberal-authority position
-.1 0 .1 .2
Country FEs & general LR Lagged DV & general LR
Country FEs & 2 dimensions Lagged DV & 2 dimensions
Effect of SD & CR party posi;ons: 1945-2017
Dependent variable = Social Democrat party Vote share (%)

32. Social Democrat left-right position
Centre Right left-right position
SD economic left-right position
CR economic left-right position
SD liberal-authority position
CR liberal-authority position
-1 0 1 -1 0 1
Western Europe Eastern Europe
Country FEs & general LR Lagged DV & general LR
Country FEs & 2 dimensions Lagged DV & 2 dimensions
Effect of SD & CR party posi;ons: 1990-2017
Dependent variable = Social Democrat party Vote share (%)

33. Employment in industry (%)
Employment in agriculture (%)
Union density (%)
Trade volume (% GDP)
Trade balance (% GDP)
Net 5-year immigration (log)
Urban population (%)
-1 0 1 2 -1 0 1 2
% SD vote share % SD electorate share
Country FEs Lagged DV
1975-2017: core supporters & globaliza;on?
AT, BE, CH, CY, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, GB, GR, IE, IT, LU, NL, NO, PT, SE

34. Public spending (% GDP)
Net 5-year immigration (log)
Post-tax income inequality (Gini)
Women in workforce (%)
Enrolment in higher education (ratio)
Urban population (%)
-4 -2 0 2 -4 -2 0 2
Western Europe Eastern Europe
Country FEs Lagged DV
Some other 1990-2017 results: West v. East
Dependent variable = Social democrat party Electorate share (%)

35. Main Findings 1
The is li2le evidence that embourgeoisement explains declining support for Social
Democra@c par@es. Richer countries have higher levels of support for Social Democrats
than poorer countries, and support for Social Democrats grew as countries got richer.
Regarding core supporters, there is some evidence that the growth and decline of
employment in manufacturing correlates with the rise and fall in support for Social
Democrats. However, union density appears to be nega>vely correlated with support
for Social Democrats.
In terms of strategic dilemmas, there is some evidence that Social Democra@c par@es
gain support when they move to the right, and lose support when they move to the
leR. Social Democrats also gain (lose) support when their main Centre Right
compe@tor moves to the right (le?). However, this pa2ern does not hold for Social
Democra@c par@es in Eastern Europe.
These effects are magnified in majoritarian electoral systems (with low district
magnitudes), in that Social Democrats gained more support when moving rightwards in
these systems than when moving rightwards in PR (high district magnitude) systems.

36. Main Findings 2
In terms of conflicts in the Social Democra;c coali;on, there is some evidence that SD
par@es won more votes when they were less ‘liberal’.
The expansion of higher educa@on is nega>vely correlated with support for SocDems,
while growing urbanisa@on is posi>vely correla@vely with support for Social Democrats.
Regarding compe;tor par;es, Social Democrats have won votes from (and lost votes
to) all the other main party families.
• That said, in all periods Social Democrats have traded votes with Radical Le? par@es
more than with any other party family.
• Fragmenta@on of the vote has had a large nega@ve effect on support for SocDems.
• SocDems lose fewer votes to Centre Right par@es when SDs are more ‘authoritarian’.
In terms of globaliza;on, there is some evidence that nega@ve trade balances
undermine support for Social Democrats, whereas overall trade volume has li2le effect.
The effect of immigra@on on support for Social Democrats is unclear.

37. Main Findings 3
In terms of Social Democra;c “success”, there is some evidence that public spending is
posi>vely correlated with support for Social Democrats (perhaps a larger public sector
means more SD voters).
There is some evidence that voters turn to SocDems when income inequality rises.
We found no effect of the % of women in the workforce.
Social Democra@c par@es have generally won more votes when they have been in
government. But this effect declined a?er 1975, and they have always been punished
by voters when they have been junior coali@on partners.
On average, Social Democrats have performed be2er in Semi/Presiden;al systems
than in parliamentary systems: sugges@ng that they have lost fewer votes in winner-
take-all electoral contests.
However, there is no clear evidence that Social Democrats do be2er or worse in low
(majoritarian) or high (propro@onal) district magnitude electoral systems.

38. Addi;onal Slides

39. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sweden (SAP) Denmark (SD) Norway (DNA)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Finland (SSDP)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
United Kingdom (Labour) Ireland (Labour) Netherlands (SDAP-PvdA)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Belgium (PSB-BPS / PS/SP)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Luxembourg (PS-LSAP) Germany (SPD) Austria (SDAPÖ/SPÖ)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Switzerland (SPS-PSS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
France (SFIO-PS) Spain (PSOE/PSC)
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Portugal (PS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Italy (PSI/FdP/PDS-DS-PD)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Greece (UFWFR etc/PASOK-DS/Potami)
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Cyprus (EDEK/KISO)
18 West European
countries (SD % vote shares)

40. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Poland (PPS/SLD/UP-LiD-ZL) Lithuania (LSDP/SDC-AB) Latvia (LSDSP etc./SDLP-SC)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Estonia (ESDTP-ESTP/SDE)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Czech. (ČSD/ČSSD/ČSS/SDL) Slovakia (SDL/SDSS/SDA-Smer) Hungary (MSZDP-SZDP/MSZP-Ö)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Croatia (SDP)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Slovenia (ZL-SD/LZJ-PS)
19201930194019501960197019801990200020102020
Macedonia (SDSM)
19201930194019501960197019801990200020102020
Albania (PS/PSD/LSI)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19201930194019501960197019801990200020102020
Romania (PSD/PSDR-USL)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
19201930194019501960197019801990200020102020
Bulgaria (BSP-B/BSP-KzB)
13 Central & Eastern European
countries (SD % vote shares)