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Machine Learning without the 
PhD - Azure ML 
Simon Elliston Ball 
Head of Big Data 
@sireb 
http://bit.ly/learningAzureML 
#learnAzureML
Thanks for CloudBurst to:
Skynet. 
Self aware flying robots. 
…in the cloud
Not Skynet
Goals of machine learning 
Prediction 
Explanation 
Automation 
Anomaly detection
Prediction 
“Prediction is very difficult, 
especially when it’s about the 
future.” 
- Niels Bohr
Classification 
Binary 
A or B A or !A 
Multi-Class 
A, B, C, D, E 
Binary Multi-Class 
A or !A, ok: B or !B, how about C? …
Types of learning 
Regression 
Clustering 
Classification 
Natural Language Processing 
Deep learning
Science, with Data 
Hypothesis 
Model 
Test 
Evaluate 
Conclude
Cleaning 
80% of any data scientists time is spent cleaning the data 
leaving just 20% to complain about cleaning the data 
https://www.flickr.com/photos/derekgavey/4283300990
Cleaning 
Missing values 
Normalization 
Scaling 
https://www.flickr.com/photos/derekgavey/4283300990
Cleaning 
Missing values 
Normalization 
Scaling 
Filtering 
https://www.flickr.com/photos/derekgavey/4283300990 
Signal Processing 
Complex Models 
Simple Thresholds 
Smoothing 
Moving Average
Cleaning 
Missing values 
Normalization 
Scaling 
Filtering 
Meta data and naming 
https://www.flickr.com/photos/derekgavey/4283300990 
Column Names 
Projection 
Type Cleanups
Splits 
Training 
Testing 
Validation 
https://www.flickr.com/photos/tabor-roeder/11606138806 
80% 
20% 
e.g. when Comparing different models
Modeling 
Continuous? 
Discrete? 
Labeled? 
Supervised 
Un-Labeled? 
Unsupervised
Regression
Decision Trees 
Weather != Snow Weather = Snow 
Temp > 20C Wind > 20
Neural Networks
Neural Networks
Clustering
Scoring 
Apply model to your data 
Outputs: 
Result 
The probability that the result is sort of right
Demo time… 
Azure Portal -> Machine Learning Studio 
New Experiment 
https://www.flickr.com/photos/mgdtgd/144569790
Evaluating 
Is my classifier any good? 
False Negative 
True Positive 
False Positive True Negative 
Precision: TP/(TP+FP) 
Accuracy 
(TP+TN)/(P+N)
Evaluating 
How far out was I? 
Error distance functions: 
Mean squared error 
Mean absolute error 
R2 Coefficient of Determination 
https://www.flickr.com/photos/dahlstroms/3945656390
Demo
R you ready? 
Programming Language based on S+ 
By Statisticians 
For statisticians 
Many many libraries 
Included in Azure ML…
R you ready? 
abc 
abind 
actuar 
ade4 
AdMit 
aod 
ape 
approximator 
arm 
arules 
arulesViz 
ash 
assertthat 
AtelieR 
BaBooN 
BACCO 
BaM 
bark 
BAS 
base 
BayesDA 
bayesGARCH 
bayesm 
bayesmix 
bayesQR 
bayesSurv 
Bayesthresh 
BayesTree 
BayesValidate 
BayesX 
BayHaz 
bbemkr 
BCBCSF 
BCE 
bclust 
bcp 
BenfordTests 
bfp 
BH 
bisoreg 
bit 
bitops 
BLR 
BMA 
Bmix 
BMS 
bnlearn 
boa 
Bolstad 
boot 
bootstrap 
bqtl 
BradleyTerry2 
brew 
brglm 
bspec 
bspmma 
BVS 
cairoDevice 
calibrator 
car 
caret 
catnet 
caTools 
chron 
class 
cluster 
clusterSim 
coda 
codetools 
coin 
colorspace 
combinat 
compiler 
corpcor 
cslogistic 
ctv 
cubature 
data.table 
datasets 
date 
dclone 
deal 
Deducer 
DeducerExtras 
deldir 
DEoptimR 
deSolve 
devtools 
dichromat 
digest 
distrom 
dlm 
doSNOW 
dplyr 
DPpackage 
dse 
e1071 
EbayesThresh 
ebdbNet 
effects 
emulator 
ensembleBMA 
entropy 
EvalEst 
evaluate 
evdbayes 
evora 
exactLoglinTest 
expm 
extremevalues 
factorQR 
faoutlier 
fitdistrplus 
FME 
foreach 
forecast 
foreign 
formatR 
Formula 
fracdiff 
gam 
gamlr 
gbm 
gclus 
gdata 
gee 
genetics 
geoR 
geoRglm 
geosphere 
ggmcmc 
ggplot2 
glmmBUGS 
glmnet 
gmodels 
gmp 
gnm 
googlePublicDa 
ta 
googleVis 
GPArotation 
gplots 
graphics 
grDevices 
gregmisc 
grid 
gridExtra 
growcurves 
grpreg 
gsubfn 
gtable 
gtools 
gWidgets 
gWidgetsRGtk2 
haplo.stats 
hbsae 
hdrcde 
heavy 
hflights 
HH 
HI 
highr 
Hmisc 
htmltools 
httpuv 
httr 
IBrokers 
igraph 
intervals 
iplots 
ipred 
irr 
iterators 
JavaGD 
JGR 
kernlab 
KernSmooth 
KFKSDS 
kinship2 
kknn 
klaR 
knitr 
ks 
labeling 
Lahman 
lars 
lattice 
latticeExtra 
lava 
lavaan 
leaps 
LearnBayes 
limSolve 
lme4 
lmm 
lmPerm 
lmtest 
locfit 
lpSolve 
magic 
magrittr 
mapdata 
mapproj 
maps 
maptools 
maptree 
markdown 
MASS 
MasterBayes 
Matrix 
matrixcalc 
MatrixModels 
maxent 
maxLik 
mcmc 
MCMCglmm 
MCMCpack 
memoise 
methods 
mgcv 
mice 
microbenchmar 
k 
mime 
minpack.lm 
minqa 
misc3d 
miscF 
miscTools 
mixtools 
mlbench 
mlogitBMA 
mnormt 
MNP 
modeltools 
mombf 
monomvn 
monreg 
mosaic 
MSBVAR 
msm 
multcomp 
multicool 
munsell 
mvoutlier 
mvtnorm 
ncvreg 
nlme 
NLP 
nnet 
numbers 
numDeriv 
openNLP 
openNLPdata 
OutlierDC 
OutlierDM 
outliers 
pacbpred 
parallel 
partitions 
party 
PAWL 
pbivnorm 
pcaPP 
permute 
pls 
plyr 
png 
polynom 
PottsUtils 
predmixcor 
PresenceAbse 
nce 
prodlim 
profdpm 
profileModel 
proto 
pscl 
psych 
quadprog 
quantreg 
qvcalc 
R.matlab 
R.methodsS3 
R.oo 
R.utils 
R2HTML 
R2jags 
R2OpenBUGS 
R2WinBUGS 
ramps 
RandomFields 
randomForest 
RArcInfo 
raster 
rbugs 
RColorBrewer 
Rcpp 
RcppArmadillo 
rcppbugs 
RcppEigen 
RcppExamples 
RCurl 
relimp 
reshape 
reshape2 
rgdal 
rgeos 
rgl 
RGraphics 
RGtk2 
RJaCGH 
rjags 
rJava 
RJSONIO 
robComposition 
s 
robustbase 
RODBC 
rootSolve 
roxygen 
roxygen2 
rpart 
rrcov 
rscproxy 
RSGHB 
RSNNS 
RTextTools 
RUnit 
runjags 
Runuran 
rworldmap 
rworldxtra 
SampleSizeMe 
ans 
SampleSizePro 
portions 
sandwich 
sbgcop 
scales 
scapeMCMC 
scatterplot3d 
sciplot 
segmented 
sem 
seriation 
setRNG 
sgeostat 
shapefiles 
shiny 
SimpleTable 
slam 
smoothSurv 
sna 
snow 
SnowballC 
snowFT 
sp 
spacetime 
SparseM 
spatial 
spBayes 
spdep 
spikeslab 
splancs 
splines 
spTimer 
stats 
stats4 
stochvol 
stringr 
strucchange 
stsm 
stsm.class 
SuppDists 
survival 
svmpath 
tau 
tcltk 
tcltk2 
TeachingDemo 
s 
tensorA 
testthat 
textcat 
textir 
tfplot 
tframe 
tgp 
TH.data 
timeDate 
tm 
tools 
translations 
tree 
tseries 
tsfa 
tsoutliers 
TSP 
UsingR 
utils 
varSelectIP 
vcd 
vegan 
VGAM 
VIF 
whisker 
wordcloud 
XLConnect 
XML 
xtable 
xts 
yaml 
zic 
zipfR 
zoo
R you ready? 
Two Data Sets enter. 
One Data Set leaves. 
(And a chart if you’re lucky)
Production 
Once more from the top… 
Modeled in R 
Applied in C#, Java, whatever, but not R
Publish a web service. 
https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/6858583426
Thanks! 
Simon Elliston Ball 
simon@simonellistonball.com 
@sireb
Questions? 
Simon Elliston Ball 
simon@simonellistonball.com 
@sireb 
http://bit.ly/learningAzureML 
#learnAzureML

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Machine learning without the PhD - azure ml

  • 1. Machine Learning without the PhD - Azure ML Simon Elliston Ball Head of Big Data @sireb http://bit.ly/learningAzureML #learnAzureML
  • 3. Skynet. Self aware flying robots. …in the cloud
  • 4.
  • 6. Goals of machine learning Prediction Explanation Automation Anomaly detection
  • 7. Prediction “Prediction is very difficult, especially when it’s about the future.” - Niels Bohr
  • 8. Classification Binary A or B A or !A Multi-Class A, B, C, D, E Binary Multi-Class A or !A, ok: B or !B, how about C? …
  • 9. Types of learning Regression Clustering Classification Natural Language Processing Deep learning
  • 10. Science, with Data Hypothesis Model Test Evaluate Conclude
  • 11. Cleaning 80% of any data scientists time is spent cleaning the data leaving just 20% to complain about cleaning the data https://www.flickr.com/photos/derekgavey/4283300990
  • 12. Cleaning Missing values Normalization Scaling https://www.flickr.com/photos/derekgavey/4283300990
  • 13. Cleaning Missing values Normalization Scaling Filtering https://www.flickr.com/photos/derekgavey/4283300990 Signal Processing Complex Models Simple Thresholds Smoothing Moving Average
  • 14. Cleaning Missing values Normalization Scaling Filtering Meta data and naming https://www.flickr.com/photos/derekgavey/4283300990 Column Names Projection Type Cleanups
  • 15. Splits Training Testing Validation https://www.flickr.com/photos/tabor-roeder/11606138806 80% 20% e.g. when Comparing different models
  • 16. Modeling Continuous? Discrete? Labeled? Supervised Un-Labeled? Unsupervised
  • 18. Decision Trees Weather != Snow Weather = Snow Temp > 20C Wind > 20
  • 22. Scoring Apply model to your data Outputs: Result The probability that the result is sort of right
  • 23. Demo time… Azure Portal -> Machine Learning Studio New Experiment https://www.flickr.com/photos/mgdtgd/144569790
  • 24. Evaluating Is my classifier any good? False Negative True Positive False Positive True Negative Precision: TP/(TP+FP) Accuracy (TP+TN)/(P+N)
  • 25. Evaluating How far out was I? Error distance functions: Mean squared error Mean absolute error R2 Coefficient of Determination https://www.flickr.com/photos/dahlstroms/3945656390
  • 26. Demo
  • 27. R you ready? Programming Language based on S+ By Statisticians For statisticians Many many libraries Included in Azure ML…
  • 28. R you ready? abc abind actuar ade4 AdMit aod ape approximator arm arules arulesViz ash assertthat AtelieR BaBooN BACCO BaM bark BAS base BayesDA bayesGARCH bayesm bayesmix bayesQR bayesSurv Bayesthresh BayesTree BayesValidate BayesX BayHaz bbemkr BCBCSF BCE bclust bcp BenfordTests bfp BH bisoreg bit bitops BLR BMA Bmix BMS bnlearn boa Bolstad boot bootstrap bqtl BradleyTerry2 brew brglm bspec bspmma BVS cairoDevice calibrator car caret catnet caTools chron class cluster clusterSim coda codetools coin colorspace combinat compiler corpcor cslogistic ctv cubature data.table datasets date dclone deal Deducer DeducerExtras deldir DEoptimR deSolve devtools dichromat digest distrom dlm doSNOW dplyr DPpackage dse e1071 EbayesThresh ebdbNet effects emulator ensembleBMA entropy EvalEst evaluate evdbayes evora exactLoglinTest expm extremevalues factorQR faoutlier fitdistrplus FME foreach forecast foreign formatR Formula fracdiff gam gamlr gbm gclus gdata gee genetics geoR geoRglm geosphere ggmcmc ggplot2 glmmBUGS glmnet gmodels gmp gnm googlePublicDa ta googleVis GPArotation gplots graphics grDevices gregmisc grid gridExtra growcurves grpreg gsubfn gtable gtools gWidgets gWidgetsRGtk2 haplo.stats hbsae hdrcde heavy hflights HH HI highr Hmisc htmltools httpuv httr IBrokers igraph intervals iplots ipred irr iterators JavaGD JGR kernlab KernSmooth KFKSDS kinship2 kknn klaR knitr ks labeling Lahman lars lattice latticeExtra lava lavaan leaps LearnBayes limSolve lme4 lmm lmPerm lmtest locfit lpSolve magic magrittr mapdata mapproj maps maptools maptree markdown MASS MasterBayes Matrix matrixcalc MatrixModels maxent maxLik mcmc MCMCglmm MCMCpack memoise methods mgcv mice microbenchmar k mime minpack.lm minqa misc3d miscF miscTools mixtools mlbench mlogitBMA mnormt MNP modeltools mombf monomvn monreg mosaic MSBVAR msm multcomp multicool munsell mvoutlier mvtnorm ncvreg nlme NLP nnet numbers numDeriv openNLP openNLPdata OutlierDC OutlierDM outliers pacbpred parallel partitions party PAWL pbivnorm pcaPP permute pls plyr png polynom PottsUtils predmixcor PresenceAbse nce prodlim profdpm profileModel proto pscl psych quadprog quantreg qvcalc R.matlab R.methodsS3 R.oo R.utils R2HTML R2jags R2OpenBUGS R2WinBUGS ramps RandomFields randomForest RArcInfo raster rbugs RColorBrewer Rcpp RcppArmadillo rcppbugs RcppEigen RcppExamples RCurl relimp reshape reshape2 rgdal rgeos rgl RGraphics RGtk2 RJaCGH rjags rJava RJSONIO robComposition s robustbase RODBC rootSolve roxygen roxygen2 rpart rrcov rscproxy RSGHB RSNNS RTextTools RUnit runjags Runuran rworldmap rworldxtra SampleSizeMe ans SampleSizePro portions sandwich sbgcop scales scapeMCMC scatterplot3d sciplot segmented sem seriation setRNG sgeostat shapefiles shiny SimpleTable slam smoothSurv sna snow SnowballC snowFT sp spacetime SparseM spatial spBayes spdep spikeslab splancs splines spTimer stats stats4 stochvol stringr strucchange stsm stsm.class SuppDists survival svmpath tau tcltk tcltk2 TeachingDemo s tensorA testthat textcat textir tfplot tframe tgp TH.data timeDate tm tools translations tree tseries tsfa tsoutliers TSP UsingR utils varSelectIP vcd vegan VGAM VIF whisker wordcloud XLConnect XML xtable xts yaml zic zipfR zoo
  • 29. R you ready? Two Data Sets enter. One Data Set leaves. (And a chart if you’re lucky)
  • 30. Production Once more from the top… Modeled in R Applied in C#, Java, whatever, but not R
  • 31. Publish a web service. https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/6858583426
  • 32. Thanks! Simon Elliston Ball simon@simonellistonball.com @sireb
  • 33. Questions? Simon Elliston Ball simon@simonellistonball.com @sireb http://bit.ly/learningAzureML #learnAzureML