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CAT Management From Insurance Perspective - Turkish Natural Catastrophe Insurance Pool - VI. International Istanbul Insurance Conference - Musa Alphan Bahar (2014)
- 1. May 2010, ISTANBUL TURKISH NATURAL CATASTROPHE INSURANCE POOL VI. International Istanbul Insurance Conference 25-26 September, 2014 CAT Management from Insurance Perspective
- 2. DASK IN THE FUTURE HAVING ROBUST PLATFORM DEVELOPING CONTINGENCY RESOURCES IMPROVING COORDINATION USE OF TECHNOLOGY 6 MILLION POLICIES IN 2014 10 MILLION POLICIES 2017 EFFECTIIVE USE OF CHECK POINTS USE OF IMPROVED METHODOLOGIES AND RISK REDUCTION STUDEIS STRONG COORDINATION WITH STAKE HOLDERS AND CONTINOUS PUBLIC RELATION ACTIVITIES INCREASING PENETRATION IMPROVING CAT MANAGEMENT
- 3. PENETRATION MTPL 14,235 DASK 6,030 ACCIDENT 5,886 ENGINEERING 5,677 CASCO 4,672 LIFE 4,625 HOMEWOWNERS 4,139 HEALTH 2,779 LEGAL PROTECTION 1,470 MARINE 1,438 GENERAL LIABLITY 1,087 PRPERTY 854 FINANCIAL LOSSES 795 ASSISTANCE 545 CARG %1 CARG %7,5 %28 %26
- 4. LESSONS âȘ Operational capacity is as important as financial capacity âȘ Outdated operational manuals âȘ Procedures must be simple and lean âȘ Application of sum insured or indemnity limits âȘ Necessity for collaboration between; âȘ Industries âȘ companies and public offices âȘ cities-countries âȘ Lack of; âȘ adjusting capacity âȘ technology âȘ Field knowledge LESSONS âȘ Less loss of lives in the countries with stringent building codes (Chile and New Zealand) âȘ Multiple events are not unusual (1999 Turkey and 2011 New Zealand) âȘ Secondary risk causing severe damages (tsunami, liquefaction, nuclear damage) âȘ Modeling has itâs limitation âȘ Underestimated scenarios âȘ Economic âȘ Political âȘ Demographic âȘ Ambiguity on expectations from insurance industry âȘ Importance of strong construction industry âȘ Need for more involvement of Government support NEW ERA IN CAT MANAGEMENT o 12.01.10 7.0 Haiti Earthquake o 27.02.10 8.8 Chile Earthquake o 04.09.10 7.1 New Zealand Earthquake o 11.01.11 Australian Flood o 11.03.11 8.9 Japan Earthquake o 22.02.11 6.3 New Zealand Earthquake OPERATIONAL CAPACITY AS IMPORTANT AS FINANCIAL o 23.09.2011 Van Earthquake o 09.11.2011 Van Earthquake o 2012 KĂŒtahya Earthquake JAPAN MODEL NEW ZELAND MODEL DASKâS STRATEGY FOR THE FUTURE
- 5. SUCCES FACTORS IN CAT MANAGEMENT SUCCESS PENETRATI ON PROTECTIO N OPERATION âȘ Maintaining high insurance penetration for low frequency and high severity risks is challenging issue âȘ Must achieve sizeable insurance penetration âȘ Must obtain social support and awareness âȘ Must convince society âȘ Must provide claim payment capacity âȘ Must establish confidence in stakeholders âȘ Must establish lean and effective organization âȘ Must establish robust infrastructure âȘ Must utilize contingency capacities
- 6. OPERATION-WHAT IS FEASIBLE VERSUSCONTINGENCY EFFICIENCY âȘ Should we invest for cat event âȘ How much should we invest âȘ What is feasible investment âȘ To achieve low cost product, services, operation and organization is critical for long term survival âȘ Hard to justify high investment in claim management âȘ High annual operational cost is not sustainable âȘ Business process is about operational managemenet (claim notification, adjustment, claim payment etc..) âȘ Earthquake process is about field management (extent of damage, worst hit area, after shocks etc) MAINTAINING LOW COST PRINCIPAL MANAGING BUSINESS PROCESS MANAGING EARTHQAUKE PROCESS CAT MANAGEMENT PLATFORM GIS PLATFOR M
- 7. DASK CAT MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE EARLY LOSS ASSESMENT NOTIFICATION ADJUSTER LOGISTICS ADJUSTMENT VALUATION APPROVAL PAYMENT OPERATIONMANAGEMENT RESOURCEMANAGEMENT REPORT/COMPLAIN/ PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT START PR AND COMMUNICATION EARLY ASSESMENT â FINANCIAL ANALYSIS APPOINTMENT COMMUNICATION WITH PARTNERS COORDINATION WITH FINANCIAL INST COORDINATON WITH PUBLIC OFFCICES FOLLOW UP CAT RESPONSE PLAN LOSS ASSESMENT/CLAIM MANAGEMENT âą Critical Discussion Point: Response plans/Emergency Plans without enough resources âą Individual corporate/public planning based on same resources is illusionary capacity âą 3 Pillars in TCIPâs Philosophy: 1. Ensure having robust platform 2. Develop committed capacity 3. Implement scenario based Cat Response Plan âą Investing in Cat Management, especially for low frequency/high severity events, may commercially be unfeasible for predictable future âą Not-investing in Cat Management, in case of occurrence, may socially and economically be fatal LOSS ASSESMENT NOTIFICATIO N CLAIM ADJUSTMENT CONTINGENC YCAPACITY TRAINING MODELS DEDICATED RESOURCES TESTAND IMPROVE RESERVING BUSINESS PROCESS
- 9. CAT MANAGEMENT PLATFORM Uydu GörĂŒntĂŒlem e ve Fark Algılama Ä°B1_DASK Ä°nteraktif Ä°B2_Operasy onel Verimlilik Ä°B4_HasarYönetiĆim 2. Ă 3. Ă 4. Ă 5. Ă 6. ĂÄ°B Proje 1. Ă P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 Ä°B3_Etkin Hazırlık P7 P8 P9 P10 P11 P12 Ä°TĂ Onay Birim Maliyetlendi rme Ä°zmir Tasarım Algoritma Hasar Kategorizas yon TOBB Eksperleri Bilgi Dosyası Yeni Eksper Bilgi Dosyası ĂĆB, AFAD, Ăniversiteler ve MĂŒhendislik Odaları ile GörĂŒĆmeler EÄitim İçerik Yönetimi ve Organizasy onu Konsolide Veri Modeli Ä°Ć Kuralları ve Kontoller Saha Lojistik Alternatifli Aksiyon Planlaması Saha Organizasy on Modelleme si Banka / PTT ile Mutabakat Ădeme Uygulaması IVR Sigortalı ve Aday Sigortalı Mobil Uygulaması Sigortalı Portalı Modelleme (BOUN)Hava ve Sokak GörĂŒntĂŒsĂŒ Mobil Eksper Uygulaması Analitik Kapsamı ve Analizi Nakit AkÄ±Ć Planlaması Hasar Uygulaması ** 2014* 2015* Program Planlaması ve Mobilizasyo nu Proje ekiplerine bilgi aktarım ve kapsam detaylandır ma workshopâl arı Program Yönetimi; DeÄiĆim ve Ä°letiĆim Yönetimi Veri Ambarı Senkromiza syonu ve Optimizasy onu (Tasarımlar ın tamamlan masını takiben) Veri Modelleme, BT Altyapı ve Mimari DeÄerlendir me Workshopla rı (Program boyunca) Ăncelikli Veri TemizliÄi AFAD, ĂĆB ile ortak kaynak kullanımı ve/veya ortak eÄitim kapsamının ve planının oluĆturulması EÄitim Stratejisi EÄitim Sertifikasyo nu Geocode EÄitim İçerik GĂŒncelleme leri Hasar KPI ve SLAâler Eksper KPI ve SLAâler Hasar Dashboard Eksper Dashboard Haritalandır ma ve Etki Tahminlem e Poliçe Entegrasyo nu Hasar Kategorizas yon ModĂŒlĂŒ GĂŒncelleme si Hızlandırıl mÄ±Ć BaĆlangıç P13 Eksper Dashboard GĂŒncelleme si Ăst Yönetim Raporlama ,U RaporlamaveDataWarehouse DÄ±Ć Entegrasyonlar E- Posta Posta ĂaÄrı Merkez i IVR Web Portal Mobil Telefon / Fax Ä°hbar Dosya DeÄerle ndirme RĂŒcu/So vtaj Dosya Notları Hasar Kontakla rı Ćablonla r Suistima l Patternl er Ădemel er Tahsilatl ar Limit Muafiyet Muallak Yönetimi Eksper & Performans Yönetimi E-posta / SMS Görevl er Raporlam a Konfigura syon Hasar Destek Fonksiyonları Hasar Yönetim i Finan sallar Hasar Uygulama sı Ä°letiĆim Kanalları à ı k tı Poliçe Sistemi Ădeme Sistemi ReassĂŒra ns Sistemi Risk Yönetimi Skorlama Sistemi İç Entegrasy onlar Maliyetlen dirme Sistemi Modelleme ve Tahminleme Uygulaması Poli çe Sist emi Ăde me Sist emi Analitik ve Veri MadenciliÄi Muha sebe Siste mi Risk Yönetimi Skorlama Sistemi DökĂŒman Yönetimi ArĆivleme Ä°Ć SĂŒreç/AkÄ±Ć Yönetimi Olay Tanımla ma CoÄrafi Bilgi Sistemleri DönĂŒĆĂŒmle r ve Haritama Modelleme ve Tahminleme Uygulaması Maliyetlendir me Sistemi Maliyetlend irme Standardiz asyonu Maliyetlend irme Kategoriza syonu Analitik ve Veri MadenciliÄi Performans ĂlĂ§ĂŒtleri Veri MadenciliÄi Muhasebe Sistemi Ădeme Sistemi ReasĂŒrans Sistemi Hasar Uygulamasını Destekleyen Uygulamalar ve Kurumsal Uygulamalar Web SatÄ±Ć (Vizy onek s) T A P U Elektrik Su Dairesi U A V T Sigorta Ćirketleri Acenteler E- Dev let Portföy Yönetim Ćirketleri T O BB Ban ka PT T TA P U AF A D C BS VE DO P U YA P Kan dilli Sist emi Eksper Yönetimi âą DASK designed the cat management structure with improved procedures and new model âą Accentureâs study justified the target model and provided implementation plan. âą DASK preferred to built itâs model on the renown platform, SAP âą Local partner, Vizyoneks, is integrating and developing the application together with SAP âą IBM is the program manager and business modeller on behalf of DASK
- 10. NEW METHODOLOGIES AND PRINCIPLES âą Big or small all losses shall be subject to adjustment process âą Multi level claim notification process âą Severe earthquake: Reappointment no claim notification is needed; every insured apartment to be inspected âą Moderate earthquake: Structured Appointment, if more then %50 of insured apartments makes notification, do the rest âą Mild Earthquake: wait for notification âą Multi-level Adjustment process is developed âą Assessing Building âą Inspecting the building (categorizing losses), methodology is developed with universities, scientifically proven, calibrated on small scale, justified with similar methodologies âą If likelihood of structural damage; send authorized civil engineer âą Assessing Insured apartment âąInspecting insured apartment in the building and calculating indemnity amount âąAdjustment of areas in the building mutually used âą Multi-level operation is enabled âą Mild earthquake: whole operation is run by DASK employees âą Moderate earthquake: sum operation may be run by authorized professionals âą Sever earthquake: major operation run by authorized professionals and civil engineers to be used for adjustment âą Claim standardization tool is developed âą All unit costs determined centrally âą Claim adjusters to asses the damage, the tool to calculate the indemnity amount âą Not to train claim adjusters but teach to use tool âą IVR, web and mobile to be used in the process âą Insured to run the process without consulting live agent âą Simple and easy claim payment âą Entegrate to the GIS Platform âą To use GIS in claim operation âą To assess collapsed building and survey field âą To do resource allocation â ACCURACY â EFFICIENCY â CUSTOMER LOYALTY â CUSTOMER RETENTION â NEGATIVE EXPERIENCE â CYCLE TIME REDUCTIONS â REDUCTION OF OPEN CLAIMS â PAPERLESS CLAIM PROCESSING â AUTOMATION OF FIELD ASSESMENT â PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- 11. DASK CLAIM ADJSUTMENT PRINCIPALS BEFORE EARTHQUAKE IMMEDIATELY AFTER EARTHQUAKE SHORTLY AFTER EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE OPERATION EXCEL ON MODELLING EXCEL ON ESTIMATION EXCEL ON DESKTOP LOSS ASSESMENT EXCEL ON CLAIM ADJUSTMENT T-1T0T1T2 WHY AND HOW TO INTEGRATE GIS TECHNOLOGIES AFTERSHOCKS EXCEL ON TRACKING THE FIELD T3 RISK-BUILDING DAMAGE SEVERITY/FREQUENCY EVENT- SEVERITY/FREQUENCY HEAVY DAMAGELIGHT DAMAGE BIG /LIGHT BIG /HEAVY SMALL/HEAVYSMALL/LIGHT âą LOW EXPERTISE âą LIMITED OPERATION âą ORDINARY SCENARIO âą HIGH EXPERTISE âą LIMITED OPERATION âą ORDINARY SCENARIO âą HIGH EXPERTISE âą HUGE OPERATION âą EXTREME SCENARIO âą CONTINGENCY CAPACITY âą LOW EXPERTISE âą HUGE OPERATIN âą EXTREME SCENARIO âą CONTINGENCY CAPACITY BIG EVENT SMALL EVENT T° TÂč TÂČ âą Continuous tracking of the field is necessary for claim adjustment âą Different levels of expertise and resources needed for different scenarios âą More operational capacity needed as the event gets bigger âą More expertise need for structural damages, regardless of number of buildings âą Characteristics of the event may get worse due to subsequent events/aftershocks âą The plan should allow to change the scenarios during operation âą Timing of field deployment is critical sooner/later to be in the field for operation âą Early field assessment is critical in planning EARTHQUAKE PROCESS
- 12. BENEFITS OF GIS GIS FOR PLANNING AND OPERATION BEFORE EARTHQUAKE IMMEDIATELY AFTER EARTHQUAKE SHORTLY AFTER EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE OPERATION EXCEL ON MODELLING EXCEL ON ESTIMATION EXCEL ON DESKTOP LOSS ASSESMENT EXCEL ON CLAIM ADJUSTMENT T-1T0T1T2 WHY AND HOW TO INTEGRATE GIS TECHNOLOGIES AFTERSHOCKS EXCEL ON TRACKING THE FIELD T3 LIQUAFACTION EXPOSURE MAPLANDSLIDE EXPOSURE MAP
- 13. 1-Boundaries of cadastral parcels with parcel numbers 2-Building polygons 3-House number points 4-Road lines with road names 5-Digital Elevation Model 6-Aerial imagery with 30cm resolution 7-Satellite imagery with 50cm resolution 8-Administrative boundaries 9-Boundaries of building blocks 10-Points of interest 11-Settlement suitability map 12-Geology map /1/2000 13-Geology map 1/25000 14-Earthquake Zoning Map of Turkey 15-Building damage estimation based on the Marmara Earthquake scenario 16-Injury and loss estimation based on the Marmara Earthquake scenario 17-Acceleration estimation based on the Marmara Earthquake scenario TRANSFORM INFORMATION INTO KNOWLEDGE DATA FROM VARIOUS SOURCES ARE COMBINED IN ONE GEOSPATIAL TOOL CROSS USE OF INFORMATION BEFORE EARTHQUAKE IMMEDIATELY AFTER EARTHQUAKE SHORTLY AFTER EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE OPERATION EXCEL ON MODELLING EXCEL ON ESTIMATION EXCEL ON DESKTOP LOSS ASSESMENT EXCEL ON CLAIM ADJUSTMENT T-1T0T1T2 WHY AND HOW TO INTEGRATE GIS TECHNOLOGIES AFTERSHOCKS EXCEL ON TRACKING THE FIELD T3
- 14. BEFORE EARTHQUAKE: USE SCENARIOS FOR LOSS MODELING AFTER EARTHQUAKE: RUN EVENT PARAMETERS FOR LOSS ASSESMENT GIS FOR LOSS ESTIMATION AND OPERATIONAL USE FINANCIAL/OPERATIONAL LOSS ANALYSIS FINANCIAL/OPERATIONAL LOSS ANALYSIS BEFORE EARTHQUAKE IMMEDIATELY AFTER EARTHQUAKE SHORTLY AFTER EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE OPERATION EXCEL ON MODELLING EXCEL ON ESTIMATION EXCEL ON DESKTOP LOSS ASSESMENT EXCEL ON CLAIM ADJUSTMENT T-1T0T1T2 WHY AND HOW TO INTEGRATE GIS TECHNOLOGIES AFTERSHOCKS EXCEL ON TRACKING THE FIELD T3 FINANCIAL CAPACITY PLANNING OPERATIONAL CAPACITY PLANNING
- 15. URBAN CHANGE DETECTION USING SATELLITE IMAGES TO SUPPORT RAPID EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT Disaster preparedness (pre-disaster) Analysis of the financial risk exposure Determination of the resource needs for disaster response Planning of the response operations Disaster response (post-disaster) Quick determination of the extend of the damage Organization of the disaster response teams Supporting claim management operations CHANGE DETECTION AND POST PROCESSING MANAGEMENT BEFORE EARTHQUAKE IMMEDIATELY AFTER EARTHQUAKE SHORTLY AFTER EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE OPERATION EXCEL ON MODELLING EXCEL ON ESTIMATION EXCEL ON DESKTOP LOSS ASSESMENT EXCEL ON CLAIM ADJUSTMENT T-1T0T1T2 WHY AND HOW TO INTEGRATE GIS TECHNOLOGIES AFTERSHOCKS EXCEL ON TRACKING THE FIELD T3
- 16. MANAGING ADJUSTMENT PROCESS IN CHAOS BEFORE EARTHQUAKE IMMEDIATELY AFTER EARTHQUAKE SHORTLY AFTER EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE OPERATION EXCEL ON MODELLING EXCEL ON ESTIMATION EXCEL ON DESKTOP LOSS ASSESMENT EXCEL ON CLAIM ADJUSTMENT T-1T0T1T2 WHY AND HOW TO INTEGRATE GIS TECHNOLOGIES AFTERSHOCKS EXCEL ON TRACKING THE FIELD T3 âą Aerial Technologies; good for general/early assestment but not enough for operational management âą Need to have more data about field âą remote sensing, âą omnidirectional imaging âą Earthquake: not a friendly environment âą Scarce capacity âą Racing against time DATA MANAGEMENT MAPPING LOSS ASSESMENT PRIORITIZATION PATH OPTIMIZATION DATA CAPTURING UNCERTINITY ESTIMATION BUSINESS ANALYSIS PLANNING/CONTINUATION
- 17. BEFORE EARTHQUAKE IMMEDIATELY AFTER EARTHQUAKE SHORTLY AFTER EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE OPERATION EXCEL ON MODELLING EXCEL ON ESTIMATION EXCEL ON DESKTOP LOSS ASSESMENT EXCEL ON CLAIM ADJUSTMENT T-1T0T1T2 WHY AND HOW TO INTEGRATE GIS TECHNOLOGIES AFTERSHOCKS EXCEL ON TRACKING THE FIELD T3 RISK-BUILDING DAMAGE SEVERITY/FREQUENCY EVENT- SEVERITY/FREQUENCY HEAVY DAMAGELIGHT DAMAGE BIG /LIGHT BIG /HEAVY SMALL/HEAVYSMALL/LIGHT âą LOW EXPERTISE âą LIMITED OPERATION âą ORDINARY SCENARIO âą HIGH EXPERTISE âą LIMITED OPERATION âą ORDINARY SCENARIO âą HIGH EXPERTISE âą HUGE OPERATION âą EXTREME SCENARIO âą CONTINGENCY CAPACITY âą LOW EXPERTISE âą HUGE OPERATIN âą EXTREME SCENARIO âą CONTINGENCY CAPACITY BIG EVENT SMALL EVENT T° TÂč TÂČ âą After shocks requires continous follow up on damage development âą Aftershock may restart whole operation from the beginning âą Should we cease operation untill the aftershocks!! WHAT IF ANOTHER EARTHQUAKE STRIKES??
- 18. WEB BASED CLAIM ASSESMENT TOOL ORTO PHOTO PROJECTS âą Transparent, simple adjusting tool âą Developing tool for standard claim assessment âą Control/monitor unit cost of construction âą Obtain Customer Compromise âą Prevent redundancy ONGOING PROJECTS âą Supporting whole event-chain before- during-after earthquake âą Enabling using contingency capacity âą Allowing multi layer hierarchy TRAINING PROJECT WITH ANKARA UNIVERSITY AND TSEV âą Develop Contingency Claim Adjusting Capacity âą Train Civil Engineers for extreme necessity âą Achieve mutual understanding/application of claim assessment âą Prevent redundancy between Institutions CENTER OF RISK REDUCTION STUDIES WITH EARTHQUAKE FOUNDATION STUDY OF REVISING TURKEYâS SISMIC HAZARD MAP SPONSORED TOGETHER WITH AFAD FIELD STUDY WITH GFZ âą Workshop on to improve street view methodology and collecting building inventory âą Signed a protocol for collaboration on developing modeling, assessment, rating capabilities and other scientific projects âą AFAD and TCIP is sponsoring to revise Hazard Map MEMBER AND COLLABORATER
- 19. CONTINOUS COMMUNICATION AND PUBLIC RELATION
- 20. CONTINOUS COMMUNICATION AND PUBLIC RELATION