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- 1. COMMUNITY COLLEGE OUTLOOK Market Focus on SoCal, Texas, NYC, Chicago, Baltimore, Boston, Denver, D.C., Seattle, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh.
- 2. SOCAL/CA
- 3. • SoCal includes 49 community colleges • SoCal Student Enrollment Change 2015-19 = -1.6% (- 13,154 students) 803,206 807,450 804,642 802,245 790,052 780,000 785,000 790,000 795,000 800,000 805,000 810,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 SoCal Student Enrollment
- 4. $14,139 $14,342 $14,903 $15,171 $16,602 $15,471 $17,114 $10,000 $11,000 $12,000 $13,000 $14,000 $15,000 $16,000 $17,000 $18,000 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 (proposed) $ in millions California Student Funding Student enrollment Student funding CC funding in CA has since the Great Recession: • 2011–12 funding: >$5,000 per student • 2015-16 funding: nearly $7,000 per student
- 5. 36% 20% 4% 1% 0% 3% 30% 4% 2% 2019-20 Proposition 98 General Fund Local property tax Other General Fund Lottery Special funds Enrollment fees Other local revenue(c) Federal Relief funds Other Federal funds CCC student funding for 2019- 20 (c)= Primarily consists of revenue from student fees (other than enrollment fees), sales and services, and grants and contracts, as well as local debt-service payments. Administration assumes local debt-service payments remain flat throughout the period.
- 6. CA OVERVIEW (PRE-COVID) • Heading into the pandemic, CCC enrollment had plateaued. • During the Great Recession, community college student demand increased, but enrollment ended up dropping as the state reduced funding for the colleges. • As state funding recovered during the early years of the economic expansion (2012-13 through 2015-16), systemwide enrollment increased. • Enrollment flattened thereafter, as the period of economic expansion continued, and unemployment remained at or near record lows.
- 7. SOCAL ENROLLMENT (COVID) • SoCal CC campuses are seeing enrollment drops in 2020 from 2019. • Overall enrollment in CCC dropped 11% this year compared to the fall 2019 semester. • Things like unemployment, childcare costs, and food insecurity have forced many college students to put classes on hold in 2021. LA City College Compton College 9-Campus LA Community College District LA Valley College San Diego CC 6- 8% 3% 10% 13% 23% 34% Santa Ana College
- 8. CA SUMMER ENROLLMENT (COVID) • CCC Enrollment Increased in Summer 2020. • Historically, enrollment demand at CC increases during a recession, as individuals affected by the economic downturn seek retraining. Summer 2020 appeared to follow this trend, as enrollment ended up higher than the summer 2019 level by about 4,000 FTE students (3.3%). • Enrollment was uneven throughout the state, though, with 40 districts reporting an increase and 31 districts reporting a decline. • Psycholog y • Chemistry • Calculus • Phys. Ed. • Culinary • Cosmetolog y • Re-enrolled in courses they withdrew from in Spring • Seeking to transfer and taking online courses Why the increase? Courses
- 9. CA FALL ENROLLMENT (COVID) • CCC enrollment dropped in fall 2020. • While enrollment declines are affecting most student demographic groups, districts generally report the largest enrollment declines among African American, Hispanic, male, and older adult students. • Spring 2021 enrollment is down similarly to fall 2020. Factors Contributing to Enrollment Drops Some believe they do not do well learning in an online format. Others (particularly in rural areas) indicate they lack reliable, high-speed internet connectivity to take online classes. Taking online courses also could be difficult due to a lack of a quiet study space at home. Student parents could have less ability to study given K-12 school closures. Need to work is more important if other family members have lost jobs or they themselves lost one and need to look.
- 10. CA ENROLLMENT (POST-COVID) • Enrollment Factors (2021-22): • Because they are open-access institutions, CC enrollment demand is often difficult to predict. • This year is even more difficult given the disruptions caused by the pandemic. • “wait and see” approach to make decisions, depending on the trajectory of the pandemic and updates on the effectiveness of vaccines and vaccine deployment. • If colleges reopen in the fall and the economy is slow to recover for displaced workers, CCC enrollment demand could be strong. • If colleges remain primarily online in the fall and children must continue to attend school virtually, CCC enrollment demand could remain weak.
- 11. TEXAS
- 12. Texas includes 62 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is +6.3% 725,386 739,489 747,830 758,293 771,136 700,000 710,000 720,000 730,000 740,000 750,000 760,000 770,000 780,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Texas Student Enrollment
- 13. $4,752 $5,506 $5,664 $5,108 $6,145 $6,429 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 $5,500 $6,000 $6,500 $7,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $ in millions Texas Student Funding Student enrollment Student funding
- 14. 19% 1% 16% 19% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 38% 1% 2019 State Appropriations State Grants & Contracts Tuition & Fees Federal Grants & Contracts Endowment & Interest Income Local Government Grants Private Gifts & Grants Sales & Services Net Auxiliary Enterprises Tax Collections Other Income TCC operating income for 2019
- 15. TCC PREDICTIONS (PRE-COVID-2019) • TCC expected to continue to have more students than universities • Enrollment usually expands in times of increasing unemployment • When the economy improves, students, especially at CC, bypass higher education for the workforce.
- 16. TCC PREDICTIONS (COVID) • Pre-covid, enrollments remained high, but growth was slowing, perhaps due to very low levels of unemployment in Texas. • Current projections predict steady increases in enrollment, but the long- term effects of covid may alter this • CC expected to play an important role post-covid.
- 17. TCC PREDICTIONS (POST-COVID) • Compared to 2019 predictions, these new predictions are lower. • 2019 prediction for 2029 was 80,000 higher than actual 2020 • New 2025 projected enrollment (770,000) is 62,000 lower than 2019 • New 2030 projected enrollments (810,000) is 67,000 lower than 2019 • Texas CC are expected to have more students than universities, despite the declines experienced from 2011 to 2014, slow growth from 2015 to 2017, and declines in fall 2020.
- 18. BOSTON/MA
- 19. Boston includes 5 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is - 16.9% 32,627 32,694 30,934 29,759 27,112 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 34,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Boston Student Enrollment
- 20. $73,830,431 $75,294,667 $77,762,655 $80,585,019 $70,000,000 $72,000,000 $74,000,000 $76,000,000 $78,000,000 $80,000,000 $82,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 Boston Student Funding Student enrollment Student funding
- 21. MCC ENROLLMENT (COVID) • MCC has been declining since its peak in 2012 • Enrollment changes 2019 to 2020: • Black undergraduates declined 15.8% • Latinx undergraduates declined 21.1% • White undergraduates declined 9.3%
- 22. MCC PREDICTIONS (POST-COVID) • Students didn’t enroll because the first-year experience wasn’t the same • Students at more selective institutions are taking gap years to not miss out on freshman campus experience • CC students are more likely to be from low-income families that have been hard hit by the recession and the pandemic. • There’s a risk they may not be able to come back for years.
- 23. NYC/CUNY
- 24. NYC includes 10 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is - 9.2% 152,479 148,705 146,408 144,124 138,514 130,000 135,000 140,000 145,000 150,000 155,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NYC Student Enrollment
- 25. $962.6 $1,045.4 $1,092.2 $1,095.4 $1,176.9 $800.0 $900.0 $1,000.0 $1,100.0 $1,200.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (requested) $ in millions CUNY Student Funding Student enrollment Student funding
- 27. NYCC (PRE-COVID) • Unemployment neared 10% in 2010 and enrollment in NYCC reached all-time highs.
- 28. NYCC (COVID) • NYCC # of students fell 10% (19,029) from 2019 to 2020. • 23% drop in student enrollment in the last decade. • Drop can be attributed to: • Relatively strong (pre-COVID-19) economy • General decline in population • With declining enrollments and decreased state funding, CC forced to raise tuition.
- 29. NYCC (POST-COVID) • Doubt on historical truth that in bad economic times, enrollment in CC increased • Pandemic injected uncertainty that makes it nearly impossible to predict enrollment, and budget accordingly
- 30. CHICAGO
- 31. Chicago includes 9 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -18.6% 65,155 61,520 60,748 58,743 53,030 46,000 49,000 52,000 55,000 58,000 61,000 64,000 67,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Chicago Student Enrollment
- 32. $362.120 $366.602 $553.327 $505.416 $404.940 $412.042 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (budget) 2021 (budget) $ in millions Chicago Student Funding Student enrollment Student funding *FY2021 includes Emergency CARES Grants in All Other State Revenue = $3.1M Federal Revenue = $6.7M
- 33. 28% 0% 8% 1% 28% 14% 18% 3% 2019 Local T ax Revenue All Other Local Revenue ICCB Grants ICCB Grants (Adult Ed) All Other State Revenue Federal Revenue Student Tuition and Fees All Other Revenue Chicago Community College Funding Sources
- 34. CITY COLLEGES OF CHICAGO (COVID) • 2020 projected tuition and fees revenue is $88.8M, approx. -10% than 2019 $99M amount. • 2020 tuition and fees revenue decline is driven by an anticipated decrease in enrollment
- 35. CITY COLLEGES OF CHICAGO TARGET ENROLLMENT (POST-COVID)
- 36. BUFFALO
- 37. Buffalo has one community college The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -16.6% 12,022 11,278 11,135 10,529 10,031 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 11,500 12,000 12,500 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Erie Community College Student Enrollment
- 39. ERIE COMMUNITY COLLEGE (PRE- COVID) • Planned for 1.75% enrollment growth in 2017-18. and an overall 7.2% enrollment increase from 2016-19. They instead experienced an 11% decrease • Since 2010/11, their student population has declined 32.22%. Part-time student enrollment is virtually even with full-time. • Since 2010/11, tuition has climbed by 48%. • Tuition is the only source of revenue they can control. • Students have been forced to pay over half of the cost of operating the college
- 40. ERIE COMMUNITY COLLEGE (COVID) • Downward enrollment trend expected to continue into 2020-2021 • They expect conditions will begin to improve due to the recession brought on by Covid. • ECC enrollment has been declining over the past few years as their local economy has improved. Given the pandemic’s impact on unemployment, they expect enrollment numbers to start to climb
- 41. PITTSBURGH
- 42. Pittsburgh has one community college The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -1.1% 16,205 16,092 16,147 16,086 16,031 15,900 15,950 16,000 16,050 16,100 16,150 16,200 16,250 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Community College of Allegheny County Student Enrollment
- 43. SEATTLE
- 44. Seattle includes 7 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -3.8% 50,177 50,410 50,878 49,520 48,288 46,500 47,000 47,500 48,000 48,500 49,000 49,500 50,000 50,500 51,000 51,500 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Seattle Student Enrollment
- 46. SEATTLE CC (PRE-COVID-2019) • Hundreds of students and staff have walked out at three Seattle CC campuses • They say state funding has dropped, causing tuition to rise to pay for the gap • With current budget proposals (for 2020), Seattle Colleges are facing a $2 million shortfall next year that will force them to make reductions
- 47. BALTIMORE
- 48. Baltimore has 2 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change for Baltimore City Community College from 2015 to 2019 is +3.9% The Student Enrollment Change for Community College of Baltimore County from 2015 to 2019 is -20.1% 4,726 4,409 4,188 4,523 4,909 22,179 21,193 19,349 18,830 17,732 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Baltimore Student Enrollment Baltimore City Community College Community College of Baltimore County
- 49. $249,687,945 $242,766,775 $247,383,026 $246,894,877 $241,541,223 $236,000,000 $238,000,000 $240,000,000 $242,000,000 $244,000,000 $246,000,000 $248,000,000 $250,000,000 $252,000,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Community College of Baltimore County Student enrollment Student funding
- 50. 2020 Sources of Revenue for Community College of Baltimore County
- 51. CCBC (COVID) • The Community College of Baltimore County strategically deployed financial aid and federal CARES Act funds to eliminate financial barriers for new students, and it hasn't seen an enrollment dip for 2020.
- 52. CC ENROLLMENT PREDICTIONS (POST- COVID)
- 53. D.C.
- 54. D.C. includes 3 community colleges (2 in Maryland, 1 in Virginia) The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -6.2% 90,438 87,168 86,178 84,536 84,870 80,000 82,000 84,000 86,000 88,000 90,000 92,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 D.C. Student Enrollment
- 55. $369.2 $379.0 $400.8 $350 $355 $360 $365 $370 $375 $380 $385 $390 $395 $400 $405 2019 2020 2021 (budget) $ in millions Montgomery + Prince George College Student Funding Student enrollment Student funding
- 56. 55% 29% 1% 14% 0% 1% 0% 2019 County Contribution Tuition and Related Charges Other Student Fees State Aid Fed. State & Priv. Gifts & Grants Other Revenues Revenue Transfers Montgomery College Funding Sources
- 59. DENVER/CO
- 60. Denver includes 6 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is +8.2% 56,757 58,058 59,944 58,742 61,406 54,000 55,000 56,000 57,000 58,000 59,000 60,000 61,000 62,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Denver Student Enrollment
- 61. $530.2 $558.2 $510.0 $520.0 $530.0 $540.0 $550.0 $560.0 $570.0 FY 2018-19 FY 2019-20 Colorado Community College Student Funding Student enrollment Student funding
- 62. 5% 1% 0% 11% 23% 3% 51% 4% 2% FY 2019-20 Colorado Technical Act Industry Training (CJT/EIT) Career and Technical Education (Occed) Fee for Service Contract COF Stipend Carl Perkins Grant (Federal $) Tuition Mandatory Student Fees Colorado Community College Funding Sources
- 63. DENVER CC ENROLLMENT (COVID) • Arapahoe Community College (white and affluent population) saw enrollment rise 3% • Community College of Aurora (lower-income area) was down 10% • Aurora’s fall enrollment is down 13% from last year. Learned many students faced challenges due to: • Losing jobs • Starting new jobs • Needing to supervise their children’s online schooling • Others weren’t confident that they could be successful in an online environment
- 64. COLORADO CC ENROLLMENT (COVID) • Within Colorado Community College’s enrollment drop, the biggest gaps include: • First-generation college students, down 15.5% • Black students, down 11% • Pell eligible (low-income students), down 16.6%
- 65. OVERALL
- 66. ENROLLMENT SUMMARY • Overall, only Texas and Denver saw an increase in student enrollment between 2015-19 • This is not to say ALL the community colleges in SoCal, NYC, etc. saw a decline in enrollment. It is the overall sum of students in those areas.
- 67. AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF COMMUNITY COLLEGES (PRE-COVID-2019) • Following the peak enrollment in fall 2010, overall higher education enrollment continued to decline through fall 2017. • CC enrollment is projected to start increasing over the next decade, but not reaching the peak of fall 2011. • They projected that starting in fall 2017, the enrollment at CC will cease to decline and inch up steadily for the next decade through 2027. • February 2019 unemployment rate hit 3.8%. College enrollments generally move inversely to the economy. • Increasing private sector demand for a more educated workforce will create a push for greater college enrollment, as the projections demonstrate. CC will continue to have an edge over other sectors both in affordability and agility to start or expand programs in high-demand fields
- 68. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF STUDENT FINANCIAL AID ADMINISTRATORS (COVID) • Revenue losses from parking, food services, facility rentals, and other noncore programs • CC spring enrollment fell by11.3% compared to the fall 9.5% drop. • No signs of any recession-related increase in adult enrollment at CC • Only 3 states — NE, UT, WV— made small gains of 1% or less in undergraduate enrollment • 25 states saw declines more than the national average of 5.9% • Double-digit declines were seen in AK, DE, NM, OR, and SD.
- 70. CHRONICLE OF HIGHER EDUCATION (POST-COVID) • Vaccinations are starting to help, however the circumstances that put education out of reach for many CC students persist • Many are still out of work, underemployed, or struggling to pay bills. • Many are still dealing with young children attending school from home at least part of the time. • Many are still reeling from health problems, or the grief brought on by the death or illness of loved ones
- 71. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO (POST-COVID) • The path ahead depends on many factors • CC have a proven track record in broadening access to higher education and, through this, contributing to greater and more equitable economic resiliency among workers. • Research has shown that workers who have lost their jobs, as well as those who enroll while still employed, can achieve large economic returns by attending CC
- 72. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO (POST-COVID) • CC could play an important role in bolstering the economic prospects for many in the recovery ahead. • In the current economy, the returns to CC should seem highly alluring. However, enrollment in CC actually declined by about 10% in the 2020–21. • There are a number of possible reasons for this drop. The timing and uncertain duration of the pandemic might have discouraged potential students from committing to months of additional education, particularly when they were continually being told the economy might “open up” soon and they could then go back to their old jobs. Many who lost their jobs during the pandemic had worked in industries such as leisure and hospitality. This industry typically has a lot of labor turnover, and so workers from that sector may not be accustomed to retraining. Furthermore, there is a good chance that their old or similar jobs are coming back when the economy reopens. So these workers may not be aware of the potential returns to building skills or seeking retraining at a two-year college. And some students might have chosen to defer enrollment until the prospect of in-person education is less daunting or until their families’ economic situations improve so that tuition payments and student loans would be less of a hardship. Finally, many of the vocational programs at community colleges require hands-on work that can be difficult to impossible to do online. Regardless of the exact reasons, the decline in two-year college enrollment is disappointing.
- 73. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO (POST-COVID) • Still, there is little doubt that two-year colleges have a substantial role to play in supporting a more equitable recovery from this recession. Clearly, the benefits to “traditional” two-year college students are as essential as ever. And there are new opportunities as well. Research has shown that relatively few workers displaced from jobs outside of the manufacturing sector turn to two-year colleges for new certifications or degrees. What can two-year colleges do to reach these individuals who have been so disproportionately impacted in this recession? Additionally, the economic hardships imposed by the pandemic are likely to prevent many students from starting a four-year college program. Two-year colleges can play a crucial role in allowing these students to continue their education plans without interruption. Lastly, it might be valuable for two-year colleges to develop and offer new virtual classes at scale to expand their reach and benefit a broader range of students.
- 74. STATISTA (POST-COVID) 0.00 1,000.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00 6,000.00 7,000.00 8,000.00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 in 1,000's Student Enrollment in CC
- 75. MOODY’S (POST-COVID) • Revenue is unlikely to return to 2019 levels due to pressure to increase financial aid
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Southern California, or SoCal, includes 49 community colleges SoCal Student Enrollment Change 2015-19 = -1.6% (-13,154 students) SoCal makes up about half of all California community college students. CA 2015: 1,593,894 vs. SoCal 2015: 803,206. CA 2019: 1,569,502 vs. SoCal 790,052. CA overall includes 116 community colleges. CA Student Enrollment Change 2015-19 = -1.5% (-24,392 students) *20-year low in enrollment
- Despite student enrollment declining, student funding steadily increases overall. Community college funding in CA has increased significantly since the Great Recession 2011–12 funding: less than $5,000 per student 2015-16 funding: nearly $7,000 per student
- California community college funding for 2019 through 2020 shows the greatest funding source at 36% is the proposition 98 general fund, followed by other local revenue at 30%. Other local revenue includes student fees, sales and services, and grants and contracts. The other big percentage of funding comes from local property taxes at 20%.
- Heading into the pandemic, CCC enrollment had plateaued. During the Great Recession, community college student demand increased, but enrollment ended up dropping as the state reduced funding for the colleges. As state funding recovered during the early years of the economic expansion (2012‑13 through 2015‑16), systemwide enrollment increased. Enrollment flattened thereafter, as the period of economic expansion continued, and unemployment remained at or near record lows.
- SoCal community college campuses are seeing enrollment drops ranging from a few percentage points to nearly a quarter of students compared to this time last year. That translates into tens of thousands of people whose higher education has been derailed by the pandemic. 3% drop at Los Angeles City College is among the lowest, while the 22.9% drop at Compton College is among the highest. Enrollment at L.A. Valley College is down 10%. In the 9-campus L.A. Community College District, enrollment is down 13%. Spring 2021 enrollment in San Diego County CC is down 6-8% from last year, as the pandemic has forced many students to take a break or drop out entirely. Overall enrollment in California Community Collefes dropped 11% this year compared to the fall 2019 semester. Things like unemployment, childcare costs, and food insecurity have forced many college students to put classes on hold in 2021.
- Historically, enrollment demand at CC increases during a recession, as individuals affected by the economic downturn seek retraining. Summer 2020 appeared to follow this trend, as enrollment ended up higher than the summer 2019 level by about 4,000 FTE students (3.3%). Enrollment was uneven throughout the state, though, with 40 districts reporting an increase and 31 districts reporting a decline. Based on discussions with the RP Group (a statewide organization of CCC researchers) and district administrators, the systemwide increase could be due in part to students re‑enrolling in the summer to complete courses they had withdrawn from in the spring. It also could be due in part to students seeking transfer—or already enrolled at a university—deciding to take online courses to earn college credits over the summer. Summer enrollment increased considerably in transfer‑level courses such as psychology, chemistry, and calculus (but declined in other programs such as physical education, culinary arts, and cosmetology/barbering).
- Based on surveys by the RP Group and preliminary Chancellor’s Office data. Some of the factors that contributed to enrollment drops include -Students believing they don’t do well learning online. -Other students, particularly in rural areas, indicate they lack reliable, high‑speed internet connectivity to take online classes. -Taking online courses also could be difficult due to a lack of a quiet study space at home. -Students who are parents could have less ability and time to study given K‑12 school closures. -Another reason could be the need to work is more important than going to classes, especially if family members have lost jobs or they themselves lost one and need to spend time looking for one.
- Enrollment demand in 2021‑22 could depend on several factors. Because community colleges are open‑access institutions, community college enrollment demand is often difficult to predict. This year is even more difficult given the disruptions caused by the pandemic. Community colleges generally take a “wait and see” approach to make decisions, depending on the trajectory of the pandemic and updates on the effectiveness of vaccines and vaccine deployment. If colleges (and K‑12 schools) reopen in the fall 2021 and the economy is slow to recover for displaced workers, then California Community College enrollment demand could be strong. On the other hand, if colleges remain primarily online in the fall 2021 and children in K-12 must continue to attend school virtually, California Community College enrollment demand could remain weak.
- Texas includes 62 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is +6.3%
- Student enrollment increased, and student funding also increased overall
- Majority of income comes from tax collections at 38%, followed by federal grants & contracts at 19% and state appropriations at 19%, tuition & fees also makes up a good amount of income at 16%
- Texas public two-year colleges, generally, have grown more rapidly than universities since the mid-1960s and are expected to continue to have more students than universities, despite the declines experienced from 2011 to 2014. Economics affect enrollment as well. Two-year college enrollment has usually expanded in times of increasing unemployment, in part because students want to update their skills to prepare for better jobs or jobs in different fields. During the Great Recession, enrollments surged at two-year colleges, as seen from 2008 to 2010. The pattern of decreased enrollments at two-year schools from 2011 to 2014 were similar to what has happened many times before; when the economy improves, many students, especially at the two-year level, bypass higher education for the workforce.
- Before COVID-19, enrollments remained high, though growth was slowing at two-year colleges, perhaps due to very low levels of unemployment in Texas. Current enrollment projections predict steady increases in enrollment, but the long-term effects of COVID-19 and other unexpected changes may alter these predictions. The workforce has changed, and two-year colleges are expected to play an important role in reskilling and upskilling for Texas citizens who have lost jobs and been otherwise impacted by COVID and other economic changes.
- Compared to 2019 predictions, these new predictions are lower. The 2020 prediction from 2019 is 80,000 higher than the actual 2020. The 770,000 projected enrollments for 2025 are about 62,000 lower than 2019. The 810,000 projected enrollments for 2030 are about 67,000 lower than 2019. Texas public two-year colleges, generally, have grown more rapidly than universities since the mid-1960s and are expected to continue to have more students than universities, despite the declines experienced from 2011 to 2014, less robust growth from 2015 to 2017, and the recent declines in fall 2020.
- Boston includes 5 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -16.9%
- Despite student enrollment declining, student funding steadily increases overall
- MCC has been declining since its peak in 2012 with 100,798 students, falling to 76,327 in 2019 and even further down to 67,685 in 2020. Enrollment changes from 2019 to 2020: Black undergraduates declined 15.8% Latinx undergraduates declined 21.1% White undergraduates declined 9.3%
- For the most part, for students who were faced with the prospect that their first-year experience would be far from the norm experienced by prior classes, many seemed to choose not to enroll. The question is whether these potential students will enroll when the conditions begin returning to the norm or will become a “lost cohort.” Douglas Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, recently spoke about this question, noting: “These are two very different phenomena. Students at more selective institutions are taking gap years. They’re opting to wait a year because they don’t like the idea of studying online or missing out on a freshman campus experience. Without missing a beat, they’ll be back enrolled next year. But when you consider community college students, they’re much more likely to be from low-income families that have been hard hit by the recession and the pandemic. I think there’s a real risk that they may not be able to come back next year. It could continue for years and affect a whole generation.” “The reason our enrollment is dropping is not because they don’t want to come back,” said Pam Eddinger, the president of Bunker Hill Community College. “They are unemployed and they have kids to take care of. When the other systems are not working in the society, it is an absurdity that you would expect our enrollment would be the same.”
- NYC includes 10 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -9.2%
- Despite student enrollment declining, student funding has been increasing overall
- The largest funding source for CUNY schools is state aid at around 52-53%. The second largest is city support, followed by tuition
- Lean economic times often help fill seats at the two-year colleges. Students enroll to add skills and credentials when jobs are hard to come by. Unemployment neared 10 percent in 2010 and enrollment in New York’s community colleges reached all-time highs, but the number of students has steadily declined along with the state’s jobless rate since then.
- SUNY’s actual enrollment drop was most pronounced at its 30 community colleges. The number of students overall fell from 192,959 students in the fall of 2019 to 173,930 in the fall of 2020. That’s 19,029 fewer community college students, or a roughly ten percent decline. NYCC have seen a 23% drop in student enrollment in the last decade. This drop can be attributed to several factors but the two most likely are a relatively strong (pre-COVID-19) economy and a general decline in population for many areas of the state. Faced with declining or at best uncertain enrollments and decreased state funding, community colleges are being forced to raise tuition to continue to serve their students.
- The COVID-19 crisis has cast doubt on the validity of another historical truth which held that in bad economic times enrollment in public higher educational institutions, particularly community colleges, increased. The pandemic has injected a degree of uncertainty that makes it nearly impossible to predict enrollment, and budget accordingly.
- Chicago includes 9 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -18.6%
- While student enrollment steadily declined, funding has been volatile with large increases followed by large decreases *FY2021 Budget includes Emergency CARES Grants in All Other State Revenue = $3,100,000 & Federal Revenue = $6,700,000
- The largest funding source is tied between local tax revenue and other state funding at 28%, this is followed by tuition at 18% and federal revenue at 14%.
- The FY2020 projected tuition and fees revenue is $88.8 million, which is approximately 10% less than the FY2019 budgeted $99.0 million amount. FY2020 tuition and fees revenue decline is driven by an anticipated decrease in enrollment.
- Post covid, the city colleges of Chicago are targeting increased enrollment numbers for 2021 and 2022, but they still won’t reach the 2019 enrollment numbers.
- Buffalo has one community college, the Erie Community College The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -16.6%
- Erie Community College has seen a decline in enrollment and a decline in revenue. The main sources of revenue for Erie community college is tuition, followed by state aid, then sponsor contributions.
- Erie Community College planned for 1.75% annual enrollment growth beginning in 2017-18. But instead of the planned 7.2% student enrollment increase from 2016 to 2019, ECC experienced an 11% enrollment decrease. Since 2010/11, their student population has declined 32.22%. Part-time student enrollment has grown to the point where it is virtually even with full-time student enrollment, as fewer high school students are graduating and attending college. During this same time period the cost of in-area tuition has climbed by 48%. Because tuition is the only source of revenue the College can control, students have been forced to pay over half of the cost of operating the College despite the requirement in state law that prescribes that students should be responsible for 1/3 of the cost of operating a community college.
- This downward enrollment trend is expected to continue into the 2020-2021 academic year as high school populations continue to decline and pandemic conditions limit our ability to offer in-person classes at least through fall 2020. We expect conditions will begin to improve in spring and summer 2021, with an anticipated upturn in enrollment expected due to the current recession brought on by the COVID- 19 pandemic. Economic conditions have an inverse relationship with enrollment: As the economy worsens, enrollment increases, as more people seek to upgrade their skills and enroll in college. SUNY Erie’s enrollment has been declining over the past few years as our local economy has improved -- but given the pandemic’s impact on unemployment, it’s likely that our enrollment numbers will start to climb.
- Pittsburgh has one community college, the community college of Allegheny county. The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -1.1%. They do not have any funding information available.
- Seattle includes 7 community colleges. The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -3.8% Seattle Colleges exhibited a decrease in total FTES over the last 5 years. Seattle Colleges’ 2019-20 academic year actual enrollment was 17% less than the target allocation set by the state.
- Seattle colleges experienced a slight increase in funding from 2017-18 to 2018-19.
- Hundreds of students and staff have walked out at three Seattle college campuses, saying the state’s system of community and technical colleges is in crisis because of lack of funding by the state. Faculty, staff and students at South Seattle College, Seattle Central College and North Seattle College are participating in walkouts on their campuses. They say state funding has dropped, causing tuition to rise to pay for the gap. With current budget proposals, the Seattle Colleges are facing a $2 million shortfall next year that will force them to make reductions.
- Baltimore has 2 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change for Baltimore City Community College from 2015 to 2019 is +3.9% The Student Enrollment Change for Community College of Baltimore County from 2015 to 2019 is -20.1%
- Community College of Baltimore County has seen an overall drop in revenue from 2015 to 2019. They have seen an increase in county appropriations every year, as well as state aid, their drops in revenue come from loss in tuition due to dropping enrollments.
- The main sources of revenue for the community college of Baltimore county comes from tuition at 25%, followed by county appropriations at 23%, state appropriations at 18%, and grants at 15%.
- The Community College of Baltimore County strategically deployed financial aid and federal CARES Act funds to eliminate financial barriers for new students, and it hasn't seen an enrollment dip.
- Source was updated in July 2020. Over the next decade, the Baltimore city community college expects to see an increase of 71% in enrollment. The Community college of Baltimore county expects to see an increase of 27% over the next decade.
- D.C. includes 3 community colleges (2 in Maryland, 1 in Virginia) The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is -6.2%
- Specifically for the two Maryland community colleges that border D.C., despite declines in enrollment, total revenue has increased every year. Funding information for the virginia community college was not available.
- The major funding sources for Montgomery college (one of the two Maryland community colleges) is county contributions at 55%, followed by tuition at 29%, and state aid at 14%.
- Montgomery college had pre-covid predictions in 2019 of enrollment staying relatively flat.
- New predictions from 2021 for Montgomery college show enrollment increasing by 11% over the next decade. Prince George community college is expecting increases in enrollment of 40% over the next decade.
- Denver includes 6 community colleges The Student Enrollment Change from 2015 to 2019 is +8.2%
- Funding has increased from 2018-19 to 2019-20, similar to the overall increase in enrollment.
- The main sources of funding for Colorado community colleges are tuition, which makes up more than half the funding at 51%, followed by COF Stipends at 23%.
- At Arapahoe Community College, just south of Denver, which has a more white and affluent population, enrollment rose 3%. At the Community College of Aurora, located in a lower-income area near Denver, it was down 10%. The enrollment patterns in the Colorado system demonstrate they are going to see increasing equity gaps, at a time when they have all been focused on closing those equity gaps. Aurora’s fall enrollment is down 13% from last year. In phone conversations over the summer, staff learned that many students faced challenges due to losing jobs or starting new jobs or needing to supervise their children’s online schooling. Others “weren’t confident that they could be successful in an online environment.
- Within Colorado Community College’s enrollment drop, the biggest gaps include: First-generation college students, down 15.5% Black students, down 11% Pell eligible (low-income students), down 16.6%
- Notes about the presentation. Overall, only Texas and Denver saw an increase in student enrollment between 2015-19 This is not to say ALL the community colleges in SoCal, NYC, etc. saw a decline in enrollment. It is the overall sum of students in those areas.
- Following the peak enrollment in fall 2010, overall higher education enrollment continued to decline through fall 2017. Community college enrollment is projected to start increasing over the next decade, but not reaching the peak of fall 2011. They projected that starting in fall 2017, the enrollment at CC will cease to decline and inch up steadily for the next decade through 2027. The U.S. economy has been experiencing an extraordinary period of growth since the Great Recession. The February 2019 unemployment rate hit 3.8%, not seen since 1968. College enrollments generally move inversely to the economy: when the economy deteriorates, enrollments increase, and vice versa. Increasing private sector demand for a more educated workforce will create a push for greater college enrollment, as the projections demonstrate. Community colleges will continue to have an edge over other sectors both in affordability and agility to start or expand programs in high-demand fields
- Colleges have experienced revenue losses from parking, food services, facility rentals, and various other noncore programs. For the first time in the pandemic, community college Spring enrollment fell by double digits — 11.3% compared to a 9.5% drop last fall. There is still no sign of any recession-related increase in adult enrollment at community colleges. On the state level, only three states — Nebraska, Utah, and West Virginia — made small gains of 1% or less in undergraduate enrollment, while 25 states saw declines in undergraduate enrollment more than the national average of 5.9%. Double-digit declines in enrollment were seen in Alaska, Delaware, New Mexico, Oregon, and South Dakota.
- The typical relationship between community colleges and unemployment rates was broken by the covid crisis.
- Vaccinations are starting to raise a few of the darkish clouds which were hanging over many households for the previous 12 months, however the circumstances that put education out of reach for a lot of community-college college students persist. Many are still out of work, underemployed, or struggling to pay bills. Many are still dealing with young children attending school from home at least part of the time. Many are still reeling from health problems, or the grief brought on by the death or illness of loved ones
- 2021 source. The path ahead depends on many factors. And, while the Federal Reserve’s pursuit of its inclusive maximum employment goal is very important, other institutions have key roles to play. One of those institutions is two-year colleges. They have a proven track record in broadening access to higher education and, through this, contributing to greater and more equitable economic resiliency among workers. For example, research has shown that workers who have lost their jobs, as well as those who enroll while still employed, can achieve large economic returns by attending two-year colleges. Certification programs, retraining for new occupations, and associate’s degrees all boost wages immediately upon completion, and the gains grow over time. Indeed, a well-known study has shown that the returns to credits earned at two-year colleges appear similar to those earned at four-year colleges. In fact, students who initially enrolled at a two-year college and transferred to complete a bachelor’s degree at a four-year college had the same average earnings as those that completed all their credits at a four-year college. But the transfer students achieved these earnings while facing substantially lower tuition, making the cost–benefit proposition of two-year colleges quite impressive.
- 2021 source. Given these facts, two-year colleges could play an important role in bolstering the economic prospects for many in the recovery ahead. Indeed, in the current economy, the returns of two-year colleges should seem highly alluring. However, enrollment in two-year colleges actually declined by about 10 percent in the 2020–21 academic year. Usually in recessions, two-year college enrollment goes up as more people take the time to acquire new job skills. There are a number of possible reasons for this drop. The timing and uncertain duration of the pandemic might have discouraged potential students from committing to months of additional education, particularly when they were continually being told the economy might “open up” soon and they could then go back to their old jobs. Many who lost their jobs during the pandemic had worked in industries such as leisure and hospitality. This industry typically has a lot of labor turnover, and so workers from that sector may not be accustomed to retraining. Furthermore, there is a good chance that their old or similar jobs are coming back when the economy reopens. So these workers may not be aware of the potential returns to building skills or seeking retraining at a two-year college. And some students might have chosen to defer enrollment until the prospect of in-person education is less daunting or until their families’ economic situations improve so that tuition payments and student loans would be less of a hardship. Finally, many of the vocational programs at community colleges require hands-on work that can be difficult to impossible to do online. Regardless of the exact reasons, the decline in two-year college enrollment is disappointing.
- 2021 source. Still, there is little doubt that two-year colleges have a substantial role to play in supporting a more equitable recovery from this recession. Clearly, the benefits to “traditional” two-year college students are as essential as ever. And there are new opportunities as well. Research has shown that relatively few workers displaced from jobs outside of the manufacturing sector turn to two-year colleges for new certifications or degrees. What can two-year colleges do to reach these individuals who have been so disproportionately impacted in this recession? Additionally, the economic hardships imposed by the pandemic are likely to prevent many students from starting a four-year college program. Two-year colleges can play a crucial role in allowing these students to continue their education plans without interruption. Lastly, it might be valuable for two-year colleges to develop and offer new virtual classes at scale to expand their reach and benefit a broader range of students.
- Source from 2021.
- Moody’s revenue outlook from 2021. Revenue is unlikely to return to 2019 levels due to pressure to increase financial aid