Climate Change Futures on the Severn Estuary: The IMCORE Project – Dr Rhoda Ballinger

1. Climate change futures on the
Severn Estuary:
the IMCORE project
Rhoda Ballinger, Cardiff University

2. IMCORE Project
“Innovative Management of Europe’s
Changing Coastal Resource”
Aims:
• To promote a transnational, innovative
& sustainable approach to reducing the
impacts of climate change on coastal
resources
• To develop adaptation strategies for
coastal sites across North West Europe
• To demonstrate the effectiveness of
various approaches to climate change
adaptation
www.imcore.eu
UKCIP’s Adaptation Wizard

3. The Severn Estuary Case Study
Main aim:
• To enhance the capacity for climate change
adaptation in the Severn Estuary

5. The Severn Estuary Case Study
Subsidiary aims:
• To enhance the science base on climate change
for planning of the Severn Estuary
• To explore mechanisms for enhancing science-
policy integration
• To increase awareness of climate change impacts
and adaptation options
• To create IMCORE guidelines for adaptation for
the Severn Estuary

6. Enhancing the science base

7. Enhancing the science base
• Severn Estuary Climate
Change Research Advisory
Group (SECCRAG)
• Development of citation
database & associated
research
• Support & contribution to
the State of the Estuary
Report

8. Trends – sea level
Chepstow
Medium Emissions Scenario
www.ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk
Whole estuary rise
30 – 40 cm by 2080

9. Trends - storminess
• Some evidence of more
storms over last 2 decades
BUT not above levels of the
1920s
• Little evidence of increase
in intensity or frequency of
storms over the UK in the
future
• Risk to estuary is from
higher sea levels plus an
intense storm event
Very small increase in storm surge
height (0.8mm/yr until 2050)
Medium Emissions Scenario
www.ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk

10. Trends – key message!
There is much uncertainty
in predicting future climate
• Global Climate Computer Models
are not 100% accurate
• Our knowledge of the climate is
incomplete
• Climate varies naturally
• Future greenhouse gas emissions
are difficult to predict

11. Exploring mechanisms for enhancing
science-policy integration

12. Exploring mechanisms for enhancing
science-policy integration
• evaluation of climate
change science within
planning & policy
documents
• survey with planning
community

13. Climate Change Policies & Measures
Several
developed
Climate
Change
Strategies
Majority
have
mitigation &
adaptation
measures
Different climate
change science
content in strategies

14. Increasing awareness of climate
change & adaptation options

15. Increasing awareness of climate
change & adaptation options
• RTPI conference (June
2010)
• Education pack &
schools’ workshops
Beacons YoCCo project
• Easy-to-read summaries
of Severn climate change
science
– Report cards
– Website

16. • Report cards:
– General climate change
implications
– Sea level, storminess, wave
climate & storm surges
– Rainfall events & projections

17. Developing guidelines for adaptation

18. Developing guidelines for adaptation
• Informed by:
– planning desk study & survey with
planning community
– Scenario workshops
– Delphi survey
• Informing an adaptable and sustainable
planning response for the Severn Estuary
in the context of coastal climate change
over the next 30 years
– Review of existing guidelines on climate
change, SMP and flood risk for local
authorities

19. Summary: Emerging Policy Trends
Going Up
• Strong emergence of
explicit climate change
policies within
emerging plans
• focus remains on
mitigation
• High numbers of flood
risk policies in both
adopted and emerging
plans
Going Down
• ‘Dropping off’ of coastal–
related policies within
emerging plans
• Few references to
Shoreline Management
Plans in existing plans
-none in emerging plans
• Few refs to Severn
Estuary Strategy in
existing plans & none in
emerging plans

20. Planners’ Critical Issues in addressing
climate change adaptation
12
6
3
2
1
1
1
1
Development & Flood Risk
Nature Conservation
Renewable Energy Generation
Building Design
Cross-Border Working
Sustainability of Coastal Towns
Transport
Archaeology
Development & Flood Risk
“…Number one is flooding…huge issue…”;
“…flooding is our big concern…”;
“…we have a small hamlet…really in
danger…”;
“…so much of our urban development is in
very vulnerable locations...”

21. Forthcoming events
• Severn Estuary Futures
Scenario Workshops
– Cardiff 15 October
– Bristol 18 October
• YoCCo Beacons workshop
with local schools
– 22 October (Barry)
• Severn Estuary Climate
Change Research Advisory
Group (SECCRAG)

22. Thank you
SEP IMCORE website:
http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/partnership/imcore.html
Beacons Young People’s Climate Change Forum
- The YoCCo Forum project:
http://www.severnestuary.net/yocco/index.html
Contact:
Dr Rhoda Ballinger BallingerRC@Cf.ac.uk