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OODA OODA! How Rapid Iteration Can Help Level Up Your Gaming Business

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OODA OODA! How Rapid Iteration Can Help Level Up Your Gaming Business

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Mitch Weisburgh, Partner | Academic Business Advisors and
Scott Brewster, Co-Founder & CTO | Triad Interactive Media / Hats & Ladders

DOUBLE SESSION: OODA OODA! How Rapid Iteration Can Help Level Up Your Gaming Business

We are all involved in lots of complicated and complex situations. We deal with students and learning. We write, adapt, and use games for learning. We may be running businesses.

One thing that all of these have in common is that we can’t just come up with a plan, execute and expect things to just work smoothly. Unexpected things happen, it’s often impossible to anticipate all possible situations, people react in unanticipated ways, there is often information we just don’t or can’t know in advance, the people we are working with have hidden agendas. Allies, antagonists, and resources shift and change. And so on.

So, what are we supposed to do?

We are going to explore a framework for managing solutions during periods of dynamic change. The OODA Loop Framework was developed by air force colonel John Boyd based on precepts developed by Sun Tzu, Napoleon, Heisenberg, Kyng, Einstein, Gödel, and others, and has been used by military, political, and business leaders around the world. You’ll learn to prepare for the unexpected, observe and react to actions and results, and pull together and manage a team despite adversity.


Presented by the
Serious Play Conference
seriousplayconf.com
at
Orlando,
University of Central Florida,
UCF,
July 24-26, 2019

Mitch Weisburgh, Partner | Academic Business Advisors and
Scott Brewster, Co-Founder & CTO | Triad Interactive Media / Hats & Ladders

DOUBLE SESSION: OODA OODA! How Rapid Iteration Can Help Level Up Your Gaming Business

We are all involved in lots of complicated and complex situations. We deal with students and learning. We write, adapt, and use games for learning. We may be running businesses.

One thing that all of these have in common is that we can’t just come up with a plan, execute and expect things to just work smoothly. Unexpected things happen, it’s often impossible to anticipate all possible situations, people react in unanticipated ways, there is often information we just don’t or can’t know in advance, the people we are working with have hidden agendas. Allies, antagonists, and resources shift and change. And so on.

So, what are we supposed to do?

We are going to explore a framework for managing solutions during periods of dynamic change. The OODA Loop Framework was developed by air force colonel John Boyd based on precepts developed by Sun Tzu, Napoleon, Heisenberg, Kyng, Einstein, Gödel, and others, and has been used by military, political, and business leaders around the world. You’ll learn to prepare for the unexpected, observe and react to actions and results, and pull together and manage a team despite adversity.


Presented by the
Serious Play Conference
seriousplayconf.com
at
Orlando,
University of Central Florida,
UCF,
July 24-26, 2019

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OODA OODA! How Rapid Iteration Can Help Level Up Your Gaming Business

  1. 1. OODA Loops Rapid Iteration for Complex Problems From Sensemaking, Problem Solving, and Achieving Success 1 Mitch Weisburgh mitch.weisburgh@academicbiz.com Scott Brewster dr.Brewster@gmail.com
  2. 2. What you will learn • Strategies for complex decision making • A way of execution that makes you more agile and effective. • How to strengthen your allies and team while inhibiting the ability of opponents to stop you • Application of this strategy across different domains 2
  3. 3. Why you are here Situations to change Personal, professional, family, society, class, school How will those situations affect you? You will learn to look at them as challenges that you are eager to resolve, and as opportunities to become more powerful You will learn techniques to Assess situations and determine what is happening Come up with potential solutions and actions Avoid common pitfalls that we all have that stop us from achieving what we want Act in a way that will lead to solutions and accomplishments 3
  4. 4. Why are you here? What situations do you want to change? How do those situations affect you? What do you want to learn in order to make the changes you would like? 4
  5. 5. Classic Decision Making 1. find out about the alternatives that are open to choice, 2. the consequences of each, 3. compare the consequences, 4. make the decision 5. execute InformationGathering 5 Game to reduce teen Juul use
  6. 6. Complexity How do the following affect the ability to make informed decisions? • Ambiguity • Unexpected • Innovation • Complexity (too many variables), impossible to anticipate all possible situations • System and actors affect each other, shifting context • Heisenberg uncertainty applied to social sciences and interactions. • Some of what we know can’t be measured • Unknowns • Hidden assumptions and biases
  7. 7. Complexity Compounded How do the following affect the ability to make informed decisions? • Ambiguity • Unexpected • Innovation • Complexity (too many variables), impossible to anticipate all possible situations • System and actors affect each other, shifting context • Heisenberg uncertainty • Some of what we know can’t be measured • Unknowns • Hidden assumptions and biases • We don’t know what we don’t know • We think we know, when we are ignorant • We find patterns where there aren’t any • We rationalize instead of reason
  8. 8. Opportunities & Problems are Complex How do the following affect the ability to make informed decisions? • Ambiguity • Unexpected • Innovation • Complexity (too many variables), impossible to anticipate all possible situations • System and actors affect each other, shifting context • Heisenberg uncertainty • Some of what we know can’t be measured • Unknowns • Hidden assumptions and biases • We don’t know what we don’t know • We think we know, when we are ignorant • We find patterns where there aren’t any • We rationalize instead of reason How many of you have built a budget or financial projections for a startup? How accurate was it a year later?
  9. 9. 9 City Blackout
  10. 10. 10 Last 2 Minutes of a Game
  11. 11. 11 10% Cost Cut, But Meet Metrics
  12. 12. 12 Your Daughter Goes Vegan
  13. 13. 13 You Do or Don’t Want Him Re-Elected
  14. 14. Observe Orient Decide Act Simple OODA 14
  15. 15. Observe Orient Decide Act Simple OODA Loop 15
  16. 16. Observe Orient Decide Act Decision-Making: Classic Vs. OODA Loop 16 1. find out about the alternatives that are open to choice, 2. the consequences of each, 3. compare the consequences, 4. make the decision 5. execute
  17. 17. 17 Game to Reduce Teen Juul Use
  18. 18. Observe Orient Decide Act Decision-Making: Classic Vs. OODA Loop 18 1. find out about the alternatives that are open to choice, 2. the consequences of each, 3. compare the consequences, 4. make the decision 5. execute Game to Reduce Teen Juul Use
  19. 19. Winning with OODA 1. Rapidly change the environment 2. Inhibit adversary’s ability to adapt to the changing environment 3. Create confusion and disorder in adversary 4. Cause adversary to over- or under-react. 19
  20. 20. OODA winning mindset 1. Whatever we decide and do is merely the first of a series of actions. 2. We need to be prepared to obtain feedback from our actions. 3. We need to be prepared to evaluate our next actions based on that feedback. 4. And need to be prepared that we are going to go through that cycle many times. 5. We have to do this more quickly than our adversaries. 20
  21. 21. Full OODA Diagram 21
  22. 22. Observe Orient Culture Analysis/ Synthesis Previous Experiences Mental Modes New Information Decide Act Results Feedback Decision FeedbackEnvironment Outside Information Unfolding Circumstances Your actions Results of actions Actions of others Re-actions of your group Emotional state Potential allies/adversaries Implicit Guidance & Control Mitch’s OODA Loop Diagram
  23. 23. Orient Use 1. What we already know 2. The norms and culture we follow 3. What we observe including feedback 4. Various methods of analysis 5. Various methods to combine and create new solutions and actions To come up with possible actions So that we can decide which ones to implement And then act 23
  24. 24. Using OODA loops Think of a situation where there is a conflict or potential conflict 1. What are some predictable potential obstacles 2. How do you develop a diverse set of tactics you can draw on 3. What appeals or turns off the other side 4. What types of pressures or stresses is the other side under? 5. How will you observe and listen to be able to use feedback 6. How will you restrategize based on responses, and switch to new tactics 24 Implement GBL in an Organization
  25. 25. Winning with OODA 1. Rapidly change the environment 2. Inhibit adversary’s ability to adapt to the changing environment 3. Create confusion and disorder in adversary 4. Cause adversary to over- or under-react. Multiple mental models/tactics Diversity in points of view Preparedness to iterate Ability to observe and react 25
  26. 26. Applying OODA to Organizations 1 Problems faced by organizations also generally require iteration and responses to results. Top down organizations are not nimble Organizations with highly functional small autonomous groups can react faster to feedback • Orientation to the values and methods of the organization is critical • Impinge on other organizations’ abilities to compete 26
  27. 27. Competition Disrupt Opponents 1. Reduce access to resources 2. Overload their ability to plan or analyze 3. Dispirit members 4. Reduce access to allies Increase our abilities 1. Provide access to resources and information 2. Increase variety of mental modes/ methods of analysis 3. Reinforce cohesion 4. Add allies, coopt the uncommitted 27
  28. 28. Plan for opposition • Build a cadre of team mates who share a vision and mission • Strengthen our own position by communicating and demonstrating high ethical and professional standards, • Prepare models of other successful ways of introducing change that we can apply as required, • Increase our access to resources, information and allies • Probe to find who is likely to oppose us and how they are opposing us • Use intelligent iteration to isolate adversaries from allies, deny them information that would help them adapt to our actions, • Demonstrate that the actions of our opponents violate behavioral patterns that they are expected to follow • Create confusion or overload on our opponents • Pull in uncommitted people to our side • Look for opportunities to establish new allies and ally with those who used to oppose us In general strengthen our side, weaken the opponents, and attract uncommitted 28
  29. 29. Applying OODA to Organizations 2 Problems faced by organizations also generally require iteration and responses to results. Top down organizations are not nimble Organizations with highly functional small autonomous groups can react faster to feedback • Orientation to the values and methods of the organization is critical • Impinge on other organizations’ abilities to compete • Leadership that sets goals and values information flow rather than rewards and punishment 29
  30. 30. Leadership’s Role 1. Articulate and enroll a common vision a. Often through stories 2. Improving capacity a. Mental modes of potential solutions b. Resources and reinforcements c. Recruitment of uncommitted and adversaries 3. Empowering and coordinating small autonomous groups a. Training and indoctrination 4. Learn as much as possible a. Support information flow without penalizing results b. Refrain from top down decisionmaking c. Probe opponents While disrupting the ability of adversaries to do the same 30
  31. 31. Applying OODA to Organizations 3 Problems faced by organizations also generally require iteration and responses to results. Top down organizations are not nimble Organizations with highly functional small autonomous groups can react faster to feedback • Orientation to the values and methods of the organization is critical • Impinge on other organizations’ abilities to compete • Leadership that sets goals and values information flow rather than rewards and punishment • Have a high degree of trust • Convert adversaries to allies, finds ways of persuasion, not directly challenging • Encourage novelty and innovation with low risks for failure 31
  32. 32. How to depress creativity 1. Rushing too quickly to consensus 2. Rallying around expert leaders 3. Punishing dissenters 4. Hardening around a sense of right and wrong 5. Squashing risky unfamiliar ideas in the name of efficiency and practicality 32
  33. 33. Symptoms of depressed creativity 1. Not reconsidering what one knows to be true 2. Not considering what you don’t know you don’t know 3. Lack of quality and timely information 1. Trying the same thing again 2. Giving whatever one is doing one more time 3. Passing off results as statistical anomalies 4. Discarding ambiguity 5. Blaming execution or timing Resulting in 33
  34. 34. Helping your organization 34 • What can you do to help them be more open? • What can you do when the environment or results change and they may or may not perceive that a new mental mode may be needed?
  35. 35. Applying OODA to Design Thinking Strive to win with a “variety of possibilities as well as the rapidity to implement and shift among them.” Boyd, Patterns of Conflict, #176 35
  36. 36. Development Options Approach 36 Characterized by synthesizing and exercising multiple perspectives and concurrent options to maximize the development of the network’s capability to evolve expectations and self- correct focus throughout projects. OpLaunch
  37. 37. Development Approach 37 1. Synthesis 2. Exercise 3. Multiple Perspective 4. More Than One Potential Solution 5. Concurrent 6. Focus 7. Expectations
  38. 38. Development Approach 38 Synthesis Enables collaborators to imagine how a series of efforts may work together to produce the desired result. Exercise A combination of decision, action, and interaction. Exercise includes the interaction of people with designs and prototypes.
  39. 39. Development Approach 39 Multiple Perspectives Understanding benefits from a diversity of views. This approach supersedes compromise or consensus. Boyd referred to this as “an ongoing many-sided implicit cross-referencing process of projection, empathy, correlation, and rejection.” (Boyd, The Essence of Winning and Losing, 1995) More Than One Potential Solution (Many) More than one potential solution. Having several options reduces the reliance on the accuracy of detailed forecasts.
  40. 40. Development Approach 40 Concurrent More than one option can be synthesized and/or exercised at one time. Learning is accelerated. Parallel experiments, including A/B testing, are encouraged. Focus The item for temporary, concentrated attention. The current objective.
  41. 41. Development Approach 41 Expectation A set of beliefs that evolves during a project. Expectations include requirements, specifications, value propositions, and hypotheses
  42. 42. 42 Game to Reduce Teen Juul Use
  43. 43. Applying OODA to Design Thinking An innovator is a winner — individual or network — who can build new products, and employ them in an appropriate fashion, when facing uncertainty and unpredictable change Boyd, Conceptual Spiral, 1992 43
  44. 44. Applying OODA to Design Thinking Designers, engineers, coders, graphics artists, business specialists, and communicators… collectively, can improve their capabilities to win consistently. OpLaunch 44
  45. 45. Key Aspects for Success Ability to generate a rapidly changing environment Ability to inhibit adversary’s capacity to adapt to such an environment Cause adversary to fall into confusion and disorder Results in adversary over or under react Armed with diverse repertoire of actions/moves Ability to observe Agility to cycle through strategies and tactics faster than adversary 45 Success
  46. 46. OODA Loops Rapid Iteration for Complex Problems From Sensemaking, Problem Solving, and Achieving Success 46 Mitch Weisburgh mitch.weisburgh@academicbiz.com Scott Brewster dr.Brewster@gmail.com

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