2. #NOESTIMATE
SHIFT YOUR FOCUS ON VALUE

3. New idea means crazy idea

4. THOMAS EDISON

5. Crazy ideas in Software Development

6. KENT BECK – EXTREME PROGRAMING (1999)

7. SCRUM– KEN SCHWABER(1990s)

8. TAIICHI OHNO
TOYOTA PRODUCTION SYSTEM (1988)

9. Maximize customer value while minimize waste
LEAN PRINCIPLE

10. EDWARDS W. DEMING

11. Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) cycle
W. Edwards Deming
or Deming Cycle
Plan
DoCheck
Act
© http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:W._Edwards_Deming.gif

12. Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) cycle
W. Edwards Deming
or Deming Cycle
Plan
DoCheck
Act
© http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:W._Edwards_Deming.gif

13. #NoEstimates
Another “crazy” idea …

14. There are more and more #NoEstimates supporters
THE #NOESTIMATES CREW
Neil KillickWoody ZuillVasco Duarte

15. Why do we need estimation?
Estimation

16. Estimation
Construction
estimation

17. Software is NOT a
CONSTRUCTION
Software is
LEARNING
Estimation

18. • Team do the estimation job
• Relative estimation with Planning Poker
• Calculating and tracking Team Velocity
With Agile Software Development, a new approach of estimation
is also stated
Agile Estimation

19. PLANNING POKER

20. • Share understanding of the requirement
• Enable conversation and transparency
• Ability to forecast product release base on team velocity
• Use metric to measure continuous delivery.
Some benefits of Agile Estimation
AGILE ESTIMATION

21. Estimating Time rather than Complexity
AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS
3 days
1 day
2 days

22. AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS
Always Assume The Worst!

23. AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS

24. AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS
As a user I
should be
able to login
As a user I should be able
to login
• User model
• Controllers and views
• Forgot password
• Email notification
• Login with Facebook,
Google …
• Registration


25. AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS
I’ve never
done that
before
I have no
idea
Just because
you’ve never
done something
doesn’t mean
it’s complex

26. AGILE ESTIMATION PROBLEMS
…
Gaming Velocities

27. • Individuals and interactions over processes & tools
• Working software over comprehensive documentation
• Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
• Responding to change over following a plan
We are uncovering better ways of developing SW by doing it and
helping others do it. Though this work we have come to value
Agile Manifesto, 2001
That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value
the item on the left more
http://agilemanifesto.org/

29. Agile Product Ownership

30. Expectation Management

31. 1. Select the most important piece of work you need to do
2. Slice work into small pieces of work
3. Develop each piece of work
4. Iterate and refactor
This is how #NoEstimates described from supporters
#NoEstimates How-to

32. PRIORITISATION
“Sh*t, this feature might not
get done if I leave it at
number 10 in the backlog, so
I’d better move it up”
the PO should use this information to
inform *prioritization* decisions, NOT
go/no-go decisions

33. “JUST IN TIME” SLICING CONCEPT

34. DEFINITION OF READY

35. DEFINITION OF READY

36. Vision is a key

37. Vision is a key

38. SHIFT FOCUS AWAY FROM ESTIMATION
Can we finish
this amount of
work on this
Sprint?
What can we
do next?

39. • Do not fix time based on an estimate of cost
• Know your costs by having a fixed team and determine a
“final” delivery day
• Delivery early and often
• Quality is subjective
• Welcome changes
“Deliver what customer want, not what they ask for”
Contract Negotiation

40. We cannot palm people off,
what we can do is offer
alternative
How to answer your boss?
Okay, just tell
me. How long?
How Much?
I don’t
estimate! Talk
to the hand, sir!

41. • Measure actual lead times for each piece of work
• Measure throughput (counting the number of cards in “Done”
column at the end of every week
• Use a fixed WIP (Work in Progress)
• Use Little’s Law to calculate average lead time.
The alternative method for estimation
The method

42. • Number of cards done in 1 week = 20, therefore:
throughput = 4 cards/day
• Team size = 5, WIP = 4
• Lead time = (4+1)/4 = 1.25 days (this is for the top card)
• Lead time = (4+4)/4 = 2 days (this is for the card 4th)
Use Little’s Law to calculate average lead time for a card at
position n in the queue
(WIP + n) / throughput
Little’s Law

43. MEASURE THROUGHPUT

44. Agile Product Ownership

45. Expectation Management

46. • Prioritization over estimation
• Story slicing over planning poker
• Delivering over commitment
• Cycle/lead times over velocity
Some keys behind the idea of #NoEstimates
#NoEstimates “manifesto”

47. TRUST
TRUST
Mod Programing
Pair Programing
Self-organized
Velocity
#NoEstimates
Early and regular releases
Focus on quality
Transparency

48. Not
Only Estimate
#NoEstimates
#NoEstimates

49. • Don’t simply stop estimating
• Try and get better at slicing to simple pieces of work
• Measure your throughput
• Discover yourself if #NoEstimates is right for you and good fit
to your organization culture.
If you are considering working without estimates, here are first
steps
How to start?

50. Thank you!

51. Before you leave …
http://zingpoll.com/noestimate