The document provides an analysis of home price indices (HPI) for Toronto from 2012-2018. It summarizes the HPI for the overall Toronto region (composite index) as well as for different housing types including single-family detached homes, attached homes, townhouses, and apartments. The HPI aims to provide a more stable measure of price changes than average prices by tracking a fixed "basket" of home attributes over time. The analysis shows the composite HPI rising 59% from December 2013 to December 2018, with greater gains for condos than single-family homes. Apartments have seen the strongest price increases within the last two years.

1. Toronto MLS®
Home Price Index
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
REALTOR®
Witches’ House
by André Carrotflower
Dec
2018

2. Toronto Real Estate
Introduction
Average prices hide a lot of information and are subject to volatility. What if a higher
ratio of condos sold last month? Average prices can change if no underlaying prices
changes at all changed but just the mix changed. If a few $10 million homes sold last
month that would skew the average as well.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was created to be a more apples-to-apples look at
changes in prices. Like the CPI features a basket of goods that remains constant, the
HPI uses “benchmark” homes that feature a basket of attributes that remain constant.
Then it tracks the prices of just those homes over time, so the effects of mix changes are
minimized.
Here’s an introduction to the HPI if you’d like a bit more background information.

3. Comparison of YoY price increases
century21.ca/scott.ingram
You’ll notice the black line (416 average price) is more volatile than the HPI. It has reached lower
lows (including a couple of negative dips) and higher highs than the orange HPI composite line.
The average is more susceptible to fluctuations in mix. For example, March 2017 sales were 49%
detached, while Sept 2017 was down to 26% detached – lower than the 31% in Sept 2016.
17.6%
27.7%
11.7%
1.0%
6.4%
28.4%
4.2%
-8.9%
3.0%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
416 housing – YoY price increases
HPI Composite 416 Average Price

4. 416 HPI - Composite
(MLS® Home Price Index: Composite uses fixed weighting of all underlying benchmark homes,
including freeholds and condos)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Dec vs. ‘17: $51K (6.4%)
Dec vs. ‘13: $312K (59%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 9.7%
- All months > 2017, driven by condo apartments
- YoY ranged from +$9K (May) to +$74K (Jan)
- 5-year ranged from $297 (Jan) to $323 (Oct)
NB: The percentage numbers above are official and
may not match percentage change calculated from
the numbers at left. Dollars at left are from static
reports at time of issue and some percentages at right
are be based off restated prior year numbers (when
adjustments to benchmark homes or composite
weighting are made).
617 621 634 647
666 676 682 685 691
706 714 720720
737
779
817 830 830
808
790 788 790 791 794
794 808 818 831 840 840 839 838 842 846 845 845
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Composite
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
18.9%
19.9%
24.1%
27.7%
26.1%
24.2%
20.1%
16.7%
15.3%
13.3%
12.3%11.7%
10.3%9.5%
4.8%
1.6% 1.0% 1.3%
3.9%
6.1% 6.7% 7.0% 6.7% 6.4%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Composite
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

5. 416 HPI Composite vs. Components
(MLS® Home Price Index: Composite uses fixed weighting of all underlying benchmark homes,
including freeholds and condos)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
As you would expect, the HPI Composite sits in between its component benchmarks.
Notably, this is the first time since the launch in 2012 that apartments are above lowrise (and have
been since May 2017).
11.7%
6.4%
1.8%
1.1%
4.3%
3.9%
13.4%
6.8%
32.2%
23.3%
10.2%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
416 housing – YoY HPI benchmark price increases
HPI Composite SF Detached SF Attached Townhouse Apartment

6. 416 HPI – Single Family Detached
(MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value
of that basket of attributes over time)
Dec vs. ‘17: $12K (1.1%)
Dec vs. '13: $375K (52%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 8.7%
• Has been flat for 17 months ($1.1M +/- $25K)
Most expensive 416 housing type.
• Spent 6 months in negative YoY territory (only time in
the 7 years on this chart).
• Avg month in last 7 years has been +8.4%
876 878
898
924
961
982 989 991 1,000
1,020 1,032 1,039
1,076
1,106
1,172
1,2261,229
1,205
1,146
1,1001,0941,0881,0881,085
1,0811,0901,1011,1101,1241,1191,1131,1011,1051,1091,1111,097
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Detached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
11.3%10.5%11.1%
12.3%
15.3%
17.1%17.2%17.3%17.3%
19.2%20.0%20.2%
21.7%
23.3%
27.7%
29.7%
24.8%
19.8%
13.1%
8.2%
6.6%
3.9%
2.9%
1.8%
0.4%
-1.5%
-6.2%
-9.6%
-8.6%
-7.1%
-2.9%
0.0%
1.0%
1.9% 2.1%
1.1%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Detached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

7. 416 HPI – Single Family Attached
(MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value
of that basket of attributes over time)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Dec vs. '17: $33K (3.9%)
Dec vs. '13: $305K (53%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 8.9%
• Steady at $880-890K range for 9 months now
SF Attached includes freehold semi-detached and
rowhouses.
• SF Detached (6 mos.) and Attached (4 mos.) were
only two types to spend time in negative YoY
• Avg month in last 7 years has been +8.3%
680 689 702
718
745
760 764 762 762
779 791 799
820 834
878
920 928 919
879
850 845 844 850 848
842 854 864 878 891 887 882 872 879 889 889 882
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Attached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
18.4%18.6%
22.5%
25.1%
22.1%
18.6%
12.9%
9.3% 8.7%
6.0% 5.7%
4.3%
2.7% 2.4%
-1.6%
-2.9%
-4.0%-3.5%
0.3%
2.6%
4.0%
5.3% 4.5% 3.9%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Attached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

8. 416 HPI – Townhouse
(MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value
of that basket of attributes over time)
Dec vs. '17: $33K (5.4%)
Dec vs. '13: $248K (64%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 10.4%
• Remained above 2017 levels all year long
Townhouse includes condo townhouses. “Owners
typically pay co-ownership fees for maintenance and
enjoy exclusive access to a part of the lot”
• Lowest growth figures since 2013
• Avg month in last 7 years has been +9.3%
455 453 465 474
490 494 501 509 515 524 531 534543 543
568
602
628 631 633 624
609 605 599 601
605 607 607 621 632 634 635 629 630 631 630 634
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Townhouse
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
20.7%
18.6%
21.3%
26.1%
27.1%27.0%26.5%
22.9%
18.0%
15.5%
13.5%13.4%12.7%13.1%
6.7%
10.3%
1.0% 0.5% 0.3%
2.1%
4.5%
5.6% 6.5% 6.8%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Townhouse
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018

9. 416 HPI – Apartment
(MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value
of that basket of attributes over time)
Dec vs. '17: $54K (10.3%)
Dec vs. '13: $223K (70%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 10.3%
• Biggest 2 year gainer at +$144K (townhouse $100K,
SFA $83K, SFD $59K)
• Shortest (2 mos.) & smallest (-$7K) 2017 peak declines
Apartment includes condo apartments
• 26 of last 27 months above 10% is worrisome (don’t
think it can be sustained)
• Avg month in last 7 years has been +8.7%
346 349 355 359 364 366 371 375 380 388 392 397405 417
441
464 478 485 481 478 480 485 486 491493 505 514 523 527 529 530 534 536 538 537 541
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Apartment
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
18.0%
19.4%
24.0%
29.2%
31.0%
32.2%
29.4%
27.4%
26.0%
24.6%
23.5%23.3%
21.5%20.9%
15.9%
14.1%
10.1%
9.1%
10.2%
11.6%11.5%10.9%10.3%10.2%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Apartment
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

10. @areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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