January should've looked better than 2018 due to the start of the insured mortgages stress test last year. But no.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Market Charts
January 2019
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
 indicator points to heating up (favours sellers),  denotes cooling down (favours buyers)

3. Detached $1,174K / Semi $993K / Row $976K
Jan vs. '18:  $86K (-7.1%)
Jan vs. '14:  $315K (39%)
5 year CAGR: 6.8%
- 2 months in a row < prior year, after streak of 5
positive months
- Detached -8.8% and Row -9.4%, while Semi +6.1%
416 Average Sold Price
(dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $591K / Condo Townhouse $696K
Jan vs. '18: $58K (10.6%)
Jan vs. '14: $239K (66%)
5 year CAGR: 10.7%
- Unlike Houses, is well clear of prior year prices
1,2051,1981,204
1,245
1,305
1,2451,226
1,146
1,2241,2141,226
1,071
1,119
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Sold Price - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
544
584
597
610 608 613
591 590
623
609 603 601602
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

4. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Jan vs. '18:  25.3% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 24%)
YTD vs. '18:  15%
- Jan 2018 (510) was a 24-year low, due to pull-forward
of demand into Nov/Dec 2017. So this year bad if
can’t even beat that
- Lowest Jan total in last 24 years
Jan vs. '18:  6.0% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 3.8% )
YTD vs. '18:  6%
- 19 of last 21 months were lower than previous year
- Dec 10% lower than 7 year avg, 2nd worst this year
- Rolling 12 month sales down third straight month. Now
at 18,310 – lowest since Feb 2015.
510
720
1016
1186
1097
1252
940
855
986
1307
982
502484
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
989
1267
1745 1735
1944
1808
1605 1556
1454
1681
1554
959
930
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

5. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
Jan vs. '18:  0.8% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 18%)
YTD vs. '18:  1%
- Within recent seasonal ranges, though at higher end
and 18% above 7 Yr Avg.
- Still lower than 24-year Jan median (1991) and avg
(2180)
Jan vs. '18:  6.5% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 31%)
YTD vs. '18:  6%
- Higher than last 2 years, but lower than any other Jan
after 2001
- Active Listings 900 less than 7 Yr Avg
1580
1800
1995
2327
2835 2758
2506
2119
2874 2780
2434
1537
1592
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
1846 1982 2080
2425
2923 2946 2934
2648
2909 2846
2486
1710
1960
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

6. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Jan vs. '18: 0.2 months (6%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg: 1.0 months (45%)
- Highest Jan since 2009 (6.7)
- Underlying: Detached 3.9 (3.8 in Dec), Semi 1.9 (1.3),
Row 1.7 (1.9)
Jan vs. '18: 0.2 months (13%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg: 1.0 months (-32%)
- Only 2nd time in last 35 months > 2.000
- Record 23 months in row condos < houses. In 254
months before March 2017, this only happened 19
times in total. Current spread (-1.18) is 3rd highest ever
3.1
2.5
2.0 2.0
2.6
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.9
2.1
2.5
3.1
3.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.4 1.5
1.6
1.8
1.7
2.0
1.7 1.6
1.8
2.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

7. 416 Average Days On Market
(days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Jan vs. '18:  1.1 days (4%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg:  5.9 days (22%)
- Last year followed seasonal patterns, just at high end
of recent ranges
- Highest Jan since 2009 (44). (Dec was since 2012)
- 6 days higher than Jan avg of last 10 years of 26
Jan vs. '18:  0.2 days (1%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg:  7.3 days (-21%)
- Highest since 2016 (39) but still 4th lowest in 24 years
- Diverged lower from averages in spring 2016 and hae
stayed low since
- Was only one Jan <38 before 2017, so 22-27-27 of last
three years are exceptionally low
31
23
16 16 15
17
22
23
19 18
21
27
32
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
27
22
17 16
17 17
20
23 23
21
22
26
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

8. 416 New Listings
(number of new MLS #s during the month – unfortunately includes re-listed properties)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Jan vs. '18:  13.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0%)
YTD vs. '18:  13%
- Last year saw higher new listings in Nov and Dec to try
to beat the Jan 1 stress test implementation so
Jan/Feb 2018 were lower than normal
- terminations and re-listings distort this stat
Jan vs. '18: 14.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 14%)
YTD vs. '18: 14%
- Dec 2018 was lowest since Dec 2001 so this has
bounced back a bit
- Still well below Jan norms
1074
1458
1895
2307
2885
2336
1816
1423
2712
2482
1672
515
1,216
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
1674
1886
2485
2867
3377
2855
2671
2298
2707 2777
2211
901
1912
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

9. 416 Sold Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% or more of asking Jan vs. '18:  1 pp
Month-over-month:  4 pp
- 8th month in a row higher than prior year
- Full year numbers: 2015 47%, 2016 60%, 2017 49%, 2018
34%
101% or more of asking Jan vs. '18:  2 pp
Month-over-month:  3 pp
- Whole last half of 2018 was close to 2016 and 2017
numbers
- Days of SOA for a condo being just for special
properties (11% for all 2015 sales) seem to be gone
(27% for all 2018 sales)
73%
81%
78%
19%
32%
37%
41% 40%
35%
27%
25%
35%
37%
31%
24%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 15-'19 Avg
71%
74%
22%
31%
34% 34%
32%
29%
25%
21%
24% 24% 22%
17%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 15-'19 Avg

10. 416 Sold 20% Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥120% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
120% or more of asking Jan vs. '18:  2 pp
Month-over-month:  4 pp
- YoY increases in 7 of last 8 months
- 20% SOA activity (and strategy of grossly underlisting)
has moderated, with 2016 and the first bit of 2017
looking to be the outlier period
120% or more of asking Jan vs. '18:  4 pp
Month-over-month:  4 pp
- Interesting YoY jump in this practice for condos,with
5% beating recent Jan record of 3% in hot 2017
45%
3%
5%
7%
9% 9%
6%
4% 3%
7% 8% 6% 5%5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
20% 21%
1% 2%
3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

11. 416 20-year Price CAGR
(Current month vs. same month 20 years ago)
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.17%; MoM change  16 bps
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.96%; MoM change  7 bps
7.07%
8.21%
8.76%
7.99%
7.01%
7.17%
5.89% 5.74%
6.35% 6.50%
7.25% 6.96%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2016 2017 2018 2019
416 Average Prices: 20 Year CAGR
Houses Condos

12. 416 10-year Price CAGR
(Current month vs. same month 10 years ago)
10 year House performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 9.05%; MoM change  170 bps
10 year Condo performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 8.67%; MoM change  10 bps
7.94%
9.57%
10.93%
6.89%
8.47%
7.35%
9.05%
5.20%
6.09%
8.00%
6.74%
8.67%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2016 2017 2018 2019
416 Average Prices: 10 Year CAGR
Houses Condos

13. 416 5-year Price CAGR
(Current month vs. same month 5 years ago)
5 year House performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.12%; MoM change  73 bps
5 year Condo performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 10.10%; MoM change  56 bps
9.81%
12.16%
13.90%
10.98%
6.12%
6.84%
4.97%
3.75%
7.18%
10.42%
9.68%
11.26%
10.66%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2016 2017 2018 2019
416 Average Prices: 5 Year CAGR
Houses Condos

14. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 61% / Houses 38%
5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48%
10 years ago: Condos 50% / Houses 49%
15 years ago: Condos 42% / Houses 56%
20 years ago: Condos 38% / Houses 60%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 38% of 2018 sales transactions,
they were 55% of dollar volume (38% and 59% in 2017,
35% and 64% in 2016).
Houses
38%
Condos
61%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Detached
69%
Semi
23%
Row
8%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment
90%
Townhouse
10%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

15. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is
power. So, I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the
Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels
me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my
clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and
insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because
better information = better decisions.
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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