Determining the impact of future technologies is challenging and no more so than in the medical field. Intense research is leading to numerous potential options to diagnose, manage and treat medical conditions. Whilst these approaches are advancing patient care, new, innovative technologies create a high degree of uncertainty in the market - many organisations are finding it increasingly difficult to predict what might happen and when. http://www.sagentia.com/our-services.aspx

1. Disruptive technologies -
threat or opportunity?
A disease-centric view for the global medical sector
Susan Watson

2. Disruptive technologies - threat or opportunity?
Executive summary
Determining the impact of future
technologies is challenging and no the care pathway. For example, it could
more so than in the medical field. be a new therapeutic, a drug delivery
Intense research is leading to method, an early diagnostic or a radical
numerous potential options to new surgical procedure. These changes
have the potential to significantly impact
diagnose, manage and treat medical
the revenue streams of businesses
conditions. Whilst these operating in those markets. The challenge
approaches are advancing patient is the complexity of human disease and
care, new, innovative technologies the multiple ways in which to tackle it, as
create a high degree of uncertainty well as understanding which will be the
in the market - many organisations winning approaches.
are finding it increasingly difficult to
predict what might happen and But how can an organisation make sense
when. of all the potential medical technology
changes over the next 10 years, in order
New technology which radically changes to embrace the right technology for its
the way things have been done in the past future growth whilst avoiding disruption?
is commonly referred to as ‘disruptive
technology’. Whilst disruption has
negative connotations, if understood and
evaluated early on, such innovations can
also provide tremendous breakthrough
opportunities to invest in paradigm shifting
technology, to drive growth and the
establishment a powerful future position.
Disruptive technology is usually defined as
that which is significantly cheaper than
current and/or is much higher performing
and/or has greater functionality and/or is
more convenient to use. In the medical
context we are talking about technologies
that can significantly impact the
management of a disease such that new
‘standards of care’ are introduced along
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3. Disruptive technologies - threat or opportunity?
Making sense of disruptive
technologies
In Sagentia’s experience, medical opportunities, a proactive rather than
companies typically have a narrow view of reactive approach
the market in which they operate, that is,
focused on products and how it improve Understanding the potential effect future
them, rather than understanding how technologies may have on a disease is
wider changes to disease management complex. It requires meticulous, detailed
may impact on how, where and if certain research by highly skilled people to
products will be used in the future. investigate and uncover emerging
technologies, put into context how they
To successfully protect against or exploit might affect a disease, determine the
potential disruptors in the medical industry likelihood of impact and whether they are
companies must take a disease-centric sustainable in the long term.
view to be aware of and fully understand
the effect of emerging technologies across
the entire care pathway of a disease. The disease-centric view
Technologies can then be put into context
and further analysed to determine the To make sense of emerging technologies
impact timescale and consequences they and evaluate their potential future impact
may have on a business. on the medical industry, Sagentia typically
uses a care pathway analysis approach to
By looking at how a disease is managed ensure that the disease is central to the
overall, rather than focusing on products process. This process seeks to identify
alone, greater clarity of all the technology how emerging technologies could change
opportunities and threats that may be the way in which diseases will be
faced in the future can be achieved. This managed in the future, typically, taking a
approach is not about how to make an five to fifteen year view. This in turn
existing surgical tool function better, for enables a comprehensive picture of
example, but understanding how a new opportunities and threats to be built, that
technology approach may even totally simply would not have been possible by
obviate the need for a certain surgical focusing on products alone.
procedure in the future.
We start the process by building a
comprehensive understanding of the
For example, Company A developing a disease and how it is currently managed.
new early diagnostic technique for cancer This maps current standards of care and
could impact Company B making surgical considers aspects such as risk factors,
devices, but how? If the cancer is caught methods of prevention, screening,
earlier it may only require minimally management and treatment.
invasive surgery which may affect demand
for certain surgical instrumentation. “It is extremely important to consider
Company C developing a cancer drug all the component technologies
may further may further erode demand for required to bring about a new scenario
surgical devices from Company B if the in order to judge the timescale of
need for surgery is further reduced by impact.”
early diagnosis making a drug therapy a
more appropriate treatment. Further analysis is then carried out on the
care pathway to identify areas of
Therefore companies need to evaluate all weakness, inadequacies or processes that
sources of potential impact on the various could be done better. This could include,
stages of disease, and then use this for example, drug side effects, invasive
intelligence to make an informed decision surgery or long periods of post-surgical
as to whether to continue with current therapy.
strategies or investigate new
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4. Disruptive technologies - threat or opportunity?
This enables us to identify trigger points technology) that are critical to the overall
where new technology could potentially be solution.
introduced that would disrupt current ways
of doing things. This may be a threat or It is extremely important to consider all the
provide a business opportunity. component technologies required to bring
about a new scenario in order to judge the
The next stage is a process we refer to as timescale of impact. For example, an
technology scouting. This is a very broad excellent new drug therapy may require a
search to identify emerging technologies delivery device to enable its wide spread
that could impact the disease to overcome clinical adoption; therefore commercial
the identified trigger points. success hinges on the development of the
delivery device even though the drug has
It is important that this stage is carried out proven clinical efficacy. If the drug
by a team with an in-depth understanding delivery device requires a further 5 years
both of the disease and of the emerging of development the new standard of care
technologies. New technologies need to using the drug / device combination will
be considered in the context of the only be realised once the device is
disease. developed. The device ‘unlocks’ the
scenario.
From the technologies gathered and the
trigger points identified, scenarios of
possible future outcomes are developed. The final stage of the process is to bring
The objective here is to create scenarios all the technology-enabled scenarios
that depict ways in which the care together to create a future clinical
pathway could be improved by each landscape for the disease of interest and
emerging technology. plot how this could change over time. By
doing this it is possible to determine the
These scenarios can then be analysed in order in which change is expected to
the context of the business. We ask key occur within the care pathway of the
questions such as: If scenario X disease. It is also possible to assess the
happened what would be the impact on impact of different emerging technologies
the business? What products would not on each other to understand those that are
be sold anymore, what would the loss in likely to be sustainable and those which
sales revenue be? Is there a potential will be superseded.
upside to our business? From this we can
build a complete understanding of the total This type of approach is of particular
impact an emerging technology can have importance when considering investment
on a certain business situation. in a new business area. The first change
to occur will not necessarily have the most
The timescale of potential business impact commercial impact or be sustainable in
then needs to be ascertained by the long term. This can be a valuable
examining the development status of approach to determine if existing
technologies required to fulfil the relevant investments in a portfolio are wisely cast
future scenarios. In many cases or if R&D spend is appropriate.
scenarios can have missing pieces of
technology (we refer to these as unlocking
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5. Disruptive technologies - threat or opportunity?
Conclusion
Disease-centric analysis can lead to a Sagentia has found that this approach
clear picture of all relevant technology- enables a broad and un-blinkered view of
driven changes that could occur for a the future impact of technology on a
disease, where they reside in the care disease to be gained and represents a
pathway and the timescale within which powerful springboard from which long-
the change is likely to occur. Whilst term strategic decisions can be made.
disruption can come from many directions,
Susan Watson is an Associate at Sagentia. For more information please contact
disruptivetechnologies@sagentia.com or call +44 1223 875200 or visit our website
www.sagentia.com
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6. Sagentia
Sagentia is a global innovation, technology and product development
company. We provide outsourced R&D consultancy services to start
ups through to global market leaders in the medical, industrial and
consumer sectors.
With global headquarters in Cambridge, UK, and US headquarters
in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Sagentia works with clients from front
end market needs analysis through to transfer to manufacture.
We deliver innovation around new technologies and new generation
products and services that provide commercial value and market
advantage. The company also assists business leaders to create
strategies for technology, innovation and growth.
www.sagentia.com
info@sagentia.com
Sagentia Ltd Sagentia Inc
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Harston 14th Floor
Cambridge Cambridge, MA 02142
CB22 7GG USA
UK
T. +44 1223 875200 T. +1 617 401 3170