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Sachin
Nandha
    @sachinnandh
a
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Are we epistemologically reliable?
What do we know?   What can we know?         How do we
                   know?




                                       Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Historicism
              The “Best” ideas flourish & spread

              “Best” is always being redefined according to
      O       the geopolitical as well as socio economic
      r       landscape of the time.
      g
      a
      n
      i
      s
              Can these “best” ideas
      e
      d
              sometimes lead us to
              disaster?
  KNOWN
PUBLICALLY                                 Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Case of Easter Island
       200 BC            Polynesian‟s begin to
       settle

       300 AD    Island completely settled

       600 AD    Ahus constructed

       1000 AD   Massive deforestation occurs

       1500 AD   Resources become scarce
                 Intense warfare begins

       1600 AD   Resources depleted
                 Cannibalism begins

       1722 AD   Spanish arrive
                           Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Psychological viewpoint
                     “Modern skulls house stone age minds.”
Are we hard wired to be capitalists


1. We are conditional – we are trained by hunter gatherer minds to be
   competitive, group orientated and power driven.

2. We are hierarchical – which allows us to divide labour and distribute
   resources                                     “reverse dominance
   hierarchies”

   Productive hierarchies (businesses) vs. Allocative hierarchies (dictatorships or
   aristocracies)

   State should be productive but can be hijacked easily by Allocative types

3. Envious zero-sum thinkers                        www.cato.org


4. We are traders by nature                                       Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Limitations of the economy

                        Money is property. Property is a bundle of
                        rights to exclude others from what I have
What is Money?          through the use of government force.


Concentration of wealth

Interest perpetuates wealth disparity
      “Consumption beyond one‟s means
      is good for the growth of the
      economy, but bad for the individual
      who is pilling up debt”       Milton
      Friedman
                                                     Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Where are we now...




                      Sponsored by   JP Morgan
A Look at the
Paradoxes of
 Our Recent
  Past and
  Patterns
                Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Look out for…
• Emerging Best Ideas
• Herd Mentality
• „Bullish Behaviour
• “Bubbles” Forming
• Shorter Cycles– decades and years,
  not centuries?
• Short Memories


                             Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
OPEC
Crisis




         Winter of    Sell of public
         discontent   assets




                                       Sponsored by
                                       Sponsored by   JP Morgan
                                                      JP Morgan
I990‟s Coming of the
Information Age
•   CNN News 24
•   Sky News 24
•   Growth of the Internet mid 1990‟s
•   Growth in optimism – “Things Can Only
    Get Better”




                                   Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Technology Boom –
             Experts View
„We have one general response to the word “valuation” these days:
“Bull market”. The internet has introduced a brave new world for
valuation methodologies and it is a time of especially high risk/reward,
in our view. When you overlay the high valuation of many start-ups
with the relatively high valuation of the general market, well, we are
where we are just trying to do our jobs and find some early stage
great companies. If they execute, the valuations will take care of
themselves. Again it‟s about monster markets, great management
teams and good products.‟
               Mary Meeker, stock analyst, Morgan Stanley.




                                                        Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
New Millennium – Safe as
            Houses
• Different this time
• Aversion to Stocks
• Relaxed Lending
• Buy to Let Relaxed
• Media Bandwagon




                        Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Concentration of wealth




                     Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Historic Oil Prices




                      Sponsored by   JP Morgan
                      Sponsored by   JP Morgan
What is going on now?




                   Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Challenges facing us

Rising unemployment             Rising inflation

                   Decline in
                   manufacturing
Rising sovereign debt

                         Rising household
Rising oil prices        debt
                    Historical low interest rates
   Rise of India and
                                                      JP Morgan
   China                               Sponsored by
What does it all mean?
Human                       Social character
condition
Herd mentality              Consumer
Envious zero-sum thinkers   Competitive
Traders                     Materialism (our relationship to
                            nature)
Driven by greed and fear    “Greed is good”
Short sighted               Individualism
       Can we keep going like this?
           If not, where do we go?
  What attributes do you need to succeed?
                                               Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Where now?
 To avert the next great calamity, what we
need is not better hindsight, but wisdom to
better navigate through a deeply troubling
    future. We need "good" capitalists.




                                   Sponsored by   JP Morgan

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UK in economic crisis

  • 1. Sachin Nandha @sachinnandh a
  • 2. Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 3. Are we epistemologically reliable? What do we know? What can we know? How do we know? Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 4. Historicism The “Best” ideas flourish & spread “Best” is always being redefined according to O the geopolitical as well as socio economic r landscape of the time. g a n i s Can these “best” ideas e d sometimes lead us to disaster? KNOWN PUBLICALLY Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 5. Case of Easter Island 200 BC Polynesian‟s begin to settle 300 AD Island completely settled 600 AD Ahus constructed 1000 AD Massive deforestation occurs 1500 AD Resources become scarce Intense warfare begins 1600 AD Resources depleted Cannibalism begins 1722 AD Spanish arrive Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 6. Psychological viewpoint “Modern skulls house stone age minds.” Are we hard wired to be capitalists 1. We are conditional – we are trained by hunter gatherer minds to be competitive, group orientated and power driven. 2. We are hierarchical – which allows us to divide labour and distribute resources “reverse dominance hierarchies” Productive hierarchies (businesses) vs. Allocative hierarchies (dictatorships or aristocracies) State should be productive but can be hijacked easily by Allocative types 3. Envious zero-sum thinkers www.cato.org 4. We are traders by nature Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 7. Limitations of the economy Money is property. Property is a bundle of rights to exclude others from what I have What is Money? through the use of government force. Concentration of wealth Interest perpetuates wealth disparity “Consumption beyond one‟s means is good for the growth of the economy, but bad for the individual who is pilling up debt” Milton Friedman Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 8. Where are we now... Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 9. A Look at the Paradoxes of Our Recent Past and Patterns Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 10. Look out for… • Emerging Best Ideas • Herd Mentality • „Bullish Behaviour • “Bubbles” Forming • Shorter Cycles– decades and years, not centuries? • Short Memories Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 11. Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 12. Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 13. OPEC Crisis Winter of Sell of public discontent assets Sponsored by Sponsored by JP Morgan JP Morgan
  • 14. I990‟s Coming of the Information Age • CNN News 24 • Sky News 24 • Growth of the Internet mid 1990‟s • Growth in optimism – “Things Can Only Get Better” Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 15. Technology Boom – Experts View „We have one general response to the word “valuation” these days: “Bull market”. The internet has introduced a brave new world for valuation methodologies and it is a time of especially high risk/reward, in our view. When you overlay the high valuation of many start-ups with the relatively high valuation of the general market, well, we are where we are just trying to do our jobs and find some early stage great companies. If they execute, the valuations will take care of themselves. Again it‟s about monster markets, great management teams and good products.‟ Mary Meeker, stock analyst, Morgan Stanley. Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 16. Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 17. New Millennium – Safe as Houses • Different this time • Aversion to Stocks • Relaxed Lending • Buy to Let Relaxed • Media Bandwagon Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 18. Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 19. Concentration of wealth Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 20. Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 21. Historic Oil Prices Sponsored by JP Morgan Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 22. What is going on now? Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 23. Challenges facing us Rising unemployment Rising inflation Decline in manufacturing Rising sovereign debt Rising household Rising oil prices debt Historical low interest rates Rise of India and JP Morgan China Sponsored by
  • 24. What does it all mean? Human Social character condition Herd mentality Consumer Envious zero-sum thinkers Competitive Traders Materialism (our relationship to nature) Driven by greed and fear “Greed is good” Short sighted Individualism Can we keep going like this? If not, where do we go? What attributes do you need to succeed? Sponsored by JP Morgan
  • 25. Where now? To avert the next great calamity, what we need is not better hindsight, but wisdom to better navigate through a deeply troubling future. We need "good" capitalists. Sponsored by JP Morgan

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. The list of new technology companies once valued at hundreds of million pounds and that eventually folded is lengthy and includes online dog food retailers, and the much hyped Boo.com an online designer clothes retailer, with the fundamental problem that people would not part with designer size money over the internet for clothes that they could not touch and feel or try on. Nevertheless J.P.Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Benetton financed the venture to the sum of $185 million dollars, which was lavishly squandered by the businesses founders Kajsa Leander and Ernst Malmsten, photogenic Swedes in their twenties who managed to generate only $1 million worth of sales and whose website took over a year to launch and even then was flawed and difficult to use. Lastminute.com, essentially just a travel agent soared in value on its floatation day to £733 million on a turnover of just £490,000; yet within three days the share price had halved.