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Phosphorus Index Project Overview: 
Refining and Harmonizing Phosphorus Indices in the 
Chesapeake Bay Region to Improve Critical Source 
Area Identification and to Address Nutrient 
Management Priorities
Presented by Amy S. Collick
Agriculture, Food, and Resource Sciences
University of Maryland Eastern Shore (UMES)
Collaborators
University of Maryland Eastern Shore
A. Allen, A. Collick
Pasture Systems and Watershed Management Research Unit, USDA‐ARS
P. Kleinman, T. Veith, R. Bryant, T. Buda, J. Liu, M. Amin
Pennsylvania State University
D. Beegle, J. Weld
Virginia Tech 
Z. Easton, D. Fuka, M. Reiter
Cornell University
Q. Ketterings, K. Czymmek, S. Cela, S. Crittenden
University of Delaware
A. Shober, K. Clark, S. Tingle
West Virginia University 
T. Basden
University of Kentucky
J. McGrath
Spring
Creek
Mahantango
Creek
Conewago
Creek
Allegheny
Plateau
Dressler
Run
Nanticoke River
(Bucks Branch)
Upper
Manokin
River
Factory
Brook
Valley & Ridge
Piedmont
Coastal Plain
Shenandoah
River
Chesapeake Conservation 
Innovation Grant Watersheds
1. Model 
proving
Monitoring 
database
3. Site 
assessment tool 
evaluation
Project Approach
Phosphorus routines
Alternative models
Lessons and Achievements
• Model Improvement: Better representation of 
critical source areas and nutrient transport
• Greater understanding of challenges/limitations 
in modeling P risk
• Model component comparisons (i.e., erosion) to 
pinpoint where changes are likely needed in P 
index
• Informed evaluations and modifications by 
nutrient management planners and stakeholders
• Expanded and enhanced collaborations between 
partners
Lessons and Achievements
• Model Improvement: Better representation of 
critical source areas and nutrient transport
• Greater understanding of challenges/limitations 
in modeling P risk
• Model component comparisons (i.e., erosion) to 
pinpoint where changes are likely needed in P 
index
• Informed evaluations and modifications by 
nutrient management planners and stakeholders
• Expanded and enhanced collaborations between 
partners
Valley &
Ridge
This is what we must
represent177
144 44
1
<1
Soil P – mg kg-1
Runoff – liters
P loss – kg P ha-1 yr-1
92
Buda et al. JEQ, 2009
Lowest field is now a CREP buffer that
continues to yield largest P loads
4620
DPDPDP
8
DPDPDP78
Hydrologic Routine Testing – Mahantango Creek
• Similar outlet discharge 
hydrographs
• Better spatial distribution of 
runoff with TopoSWAT
• Improved identification of 
nutrient sources with TopoSWAT
Standard SWAT
WE38 outlet
TopoSWAT
Collick et al., 2014
Detailed field‐scale modeling
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/wx0SJM7FeEc/mqdefault.jpg
http://www.extension.org/sites/default/files/w/4/4a/
Spreading_manure.jpg
• Pre‐process SWAT to field‐scale
• Every field can have a different set of 
practices
• Field specific management scenarios
Application rate
Collick et al. JEQ, 2016
6000 gal ac‐1
9000 gal ac‐1
NewOld NewOld
6
3
0
Runoff 
total P
kg ha‐1
New
Old
Runoff 
total P
kg ha‐1
1/15 1/31 2/14
0.1
0
0.2
6000 gal ac‐1
Field 1 Field 2
P routine updates are 
strongly suggested for 
models
Application timing
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1/1/2010 2/20/2010 4/11/2010
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1/1/2010 2/20/2010 4/11/2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
Measured
Old
New
No manure 
applied
Poultry litter 
applied, January 
(2 tons ac‐1)
Runoff P, mg L‐1
Rainfall, mm
Runoff P, mg L‐1
Next generation: Forecasting models
SWAT with weather forecasterWatershed stakeholder decision 
support system architecture
• Forecast runoff risks (6‐hrs to 3 
days) across Chesapeake Bay 
watershed
• Provide information for land 
management decision‐making to reduce 
nonpoint source pollution risks
• Enabled for smart phones and other GPS‐
enabled devices
Sommerlot et al., 2016 Env. Model. & Soft.
Our Solution
• Standardize data access and base datasets 
using a Broker
Next generation: Data Brokering
Fuka et al., 2016 Env. Model. & Soft.
Data Brokering in ArcSWAT
Lessons and Achievements
• Model Improvement: Better representation of 
critical source areas and nutrient transport
• Greater understanding of challenges/limitations 
in modeling P risk
• Model component comparisons (i.e., erosion) to 
pinpoint where changes are likely needed in P 
index
• Informed evaluations and modifications by 
nutrient management planners and stakeholders
• Expanded and enhanced collaborations between 
partners
Upper Manokin River, MD
Coastal
Plain
Flat terrain in ditched crop fields, < 1% 
4.5 
5.0  5.0 
5.0 
5.5 
4.0 
4.5 
5.0 
5.5 
Ditches 
Monitoring 
flumes 
Contours, 0.5m 
0 40 80 120 160 20020
Meters
0 40 80 120 160 20020
Meters
0 40 80 120 160 20020
Meters
0 40 80 120 160 20020
Meters
Figure : The delineations of the four 
ditches on the 1m LiDAR (A), 3m NED 
DEM (B) and 10m NED DEM (C).  
Only three drainage areas are 
apparent from the 10m DEM.
A. 1m DEM B. 3m DEM
C. 10m DEM
0 1 2 30.5
Kilometers
'4
0 1 2 30.5
Kilometers
HUC12 Manokin River –
Taylor Branch
10m DEM
3m DEM
UMES
Experimental Farm
D. Manokin Watershed
Ditch 5 Ditch 7
Ditch 6
Ditch 8
Ditch 5 Ditch 7
Ditch 6
Ditch 8
Ditch 5
Ditch 6 & 
Ditch 7
Ditch 8
19
Water Balance Modeling Efforts
• Early effort to apply SWAT to the Manokin
watershed at the channel scale at the UMES farm 
using these datasets to parameterize the model 
initialization and corroborate the model results  
• However, the processes occurring on this flat 
terrain, the discrepancy of flow in the field 
channels could not be adequately represented in 
SWAT
• Potential to couple water balance model with 
nutrient cycling and transport model
General field layout with field ditches and
a schematic of the water balance model
View from above Lateral view
The model (Collick et al., 2006) seems appropriate for 
Manokin fields (the low slope gradient may still cause 
problems), which are divided by field drainage ditches 
that flow into larger public drainage association (PDA) 
channels
Observed and modeled flow 
comparisons
Testing the coastal plain P Index
Drainage intensity and distance to drains
Majority of P loss occurs 
in subsurface flow Empirical work
Geophysical techniques to map 
shallow flow paths
ERI now supported by NIFA funds
CIG proposal pending for subsurface processes 
Factory Brook, NY
Allegheny
Plateau
Factory Brook – Limited watershed 
monitoring
• TopoSWAT without calibration
• Automation of farm nutrient 
management plan data
• APLE model comparison with a 
large farm field dataset from 
across New York
Management Scenarios: Manure 
timing and method comparisons
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
Oct‐08
Jan‐09
Apr‐09
Jul‐09
Oct‐09
Jan‐10
Apr‐10
Jul‐10
Oct‐10
Jan‐11
Apr‐11
Jul‐11
Oct‐11
Jan‐12
Apr‐12
Jul‐12
Oct‐12
Dissolved P, kg ha‐1
Spring, 6000, surface apply
Spring, 6000, incorporation within 1 day
Fall, 6000, surface apply
Dissolved P 
loss
Particulate P 
loss
% %
Comparison of application method, same amount of P applied
Spring, 6000, surface apply 100 100
Spring, 6000, incorporation within 1 day 66 95
Spring, 6000, injection 31 85
Comparison of surface versus incorporation and injection, same N supply
Spring, 15500, surface apply 100 100
Spring, 6000, incorporation within 1 day 23 52
Spring, 6000, injection 11 47
Comparison for cover crop use
Fall, 6000, surface apply 100 100
Fall, 6000, surface apply + cover crop 110 81
Relative differences between methods 
to be compared to P index coefficients
Ketterings et al., 2016 in review, JEQ
Spatial Comparison of P index and TopoSWAT
NY Dissolved 
Pindex, 2009
NY Particulate 
Pindex, 2009
Low
Medium 
High
Very High
Soluble P in 
TopoSWAT, 2009
Particulate P in 
TopoSWAT, 2009
Lessons and Achievements
• Model Improvement: Better representation of 
critical source areas and nutrient transport
• Greater understanding of challenges/limitations 
in modeling P risk
• Model component comparisons (i.e., erosion) to 
pinpoint where changes are likely needed in P 
index
• Informed evaluations and modifications by 
nutrient management planners and stakeholders
• Expanded and enhanced collaborations between 
partners
Scenario development
Testing the P Index and SWAT
• Assess range of conditions in physiographic provinces
• Simulate management scenarios on range of representative sites
SWAT FrameworkPennsylvania P index
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P Loss 
(Modeled or Measured)
Representative* Scenarios Modeled
Monitored Scenario
. Modeled Scenario
Integrating Modeling and Monitoring
* Major Panel Activity
P Index
NY P index and TopoSWAT – 1st Run
R² = 0.29
R² = 0.57
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0
Soluble P from TopoSWAT, kg ha‐1
Dissolved P index
Corn and alfalfa fields Grass fields
Very preliminary results from uncalibrated TopoSWAT run of Factory Brook
1st Run indicates further vetting of 
results and rerunning when necessary
Pennsylvania P Index
Screening tool
• Special Protection Watershed
• Significant management changes
• STP > 200 ppm Mehlich 3
• Distance to Stream < 150 feet
Source factors
• Soil Test P (Mehlich 3)
• Manure P (Rate, Timing x Method, P Availability Coeff.)
• Fertilizer P (Rate, Timing x Method)
Transport factors
• Erosion (RUSLE2)
• Runoff Potential (Drainage Class)
• Subsurface drainage
• Distance to the Stream
Modified connectivity
• Riparian Buffer • Grassed waterway • Direct connection
SSURGO variables
Slope
Drainage classes
Soil texture class
Distance from 
stream
Ksat
AWC
TI class
OM
USLE K
MUKey
Developing reasonable scenarios
What important conditions are missing in 
our watersheds?
Field 
management
Soils
Field 
delineation
Landuse
Topography
Watershed
Soil texture 
at variable 
distance 
from stream 
SSURGO data -- clay
% Clay
Lessons and Achievements
• Model Improvement: Better representation of critical 
source areas and nutrient transport
• Greater understanding of challenges/limitations in 
modeling P risk
• Model component comparisons (i.e., erosion) to 
pinpoint where changes are likely needed in P index
• Informed evaluations and modifications by nutrient 
management planners and stakeholders
• Expanded and enhanced collaborations between 
partners
Allegheny Plateau
New York and Pennsylvania
Ridge and Valley/Piedmont
Pennsylvania and West Virginia Coastal Plain
Delaware
Assess opinions regarding…
– Current P Index factors (importance and reliability)
– P Index modifications (boundaries and screening tool)
Evaluation and Revision of Phosphorus Indices
Questionnaire for Nutrient 
Management Experts
Ketterings et al., 2016 in press, JSWCS
Lessons and Achievements
• Model Improvement: Better representation of 
critical source areas and nutrient transport
• Greater understanding of challenges/limitations 
in modeling P risk
• Model component comparisons (i.e., erosion) to 
pinpoint where changes are likely needed in P 
index
• Informed evaluations and modifications by 
nutrient management planners and stakeholders
• Expanded and enhanced collaborations between 
partners
Thank you!  Questions??
Amy S. Collick ascollick@umes.edu

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