1.
Accounting for Climate
Variability in State and
Transition Models on
Rangelands: History,
Status, Lessons Learned
Curtis Talbot
USDA-NRCS

2.
USDA-NRCS-National Ecological Site Handbook

3.
Loamy Plains Range Site Description
MLRA 49 & 70
USDA-NRCS-Colorado FOTG
July 1981

4.
Sandy Ecological Site Description
MLRA 42
Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool
June 2019

5.
Sandy Ecological Site Description
MLRA 42
Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool
June 2019

6.
Sandy Ecological Site Description
MLRA 42
Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool
June 2019
How can we capture climate change in the data?

7.
Albuquerque Climate 1920-2009
1920-49
1930-59
1940-69
1950-79
1960-89
1970-99 1980-09
1990-19
2000-29
2010-39
2020-49
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
55.5 56 56.5 57 57.5 58 58.5 59 59.5 60 60.5
Precipitation(“)
Temperature (F)
Western Regional Climate Center
wrcc@dri.edu
Environmental Protection Agency
What climate change may mean
for the Albuquerque region
2014

8.
How can we capture climate change in
the STM?
Reference State
(Grassland with scattered
shrubs)
Projected State
(Shrub dominance with
increased bare patches)
Climate Change
Or…

9.
How can we capture climate change in
the STM?
Climate Change

10.
Factors to consider with projected
climate change…
• Models project linear change, but the “peaks
and valleys” may have a greater impact on
natural resources
• For the Desert Southwest, most models predict
an increase in high-intensity storm events
• High-intensity storm events often serve as
triggers for transitions between ecological
states
• Flooding
• Lightning strike fires
• Climate averages may remain stable, but
seasonality could change

11.
Factors to consider with projected
climate change…
• Plant and animal response to climate change may
occur at a different temporal scale than the climate
• Episodic weather events may eliminate certain
species (or at least certain populations)
• In order for plant species to take advantage of
decreased competition, they must have access to
their preferred vectors of spreading
• Wind
• Flooding
• Carrier species (including humans)
• Many plant species have a narrow climate range for
germination, but can tolerate a wider range once
established
• Topography will impact the spread of species

12.
Final thoughts…
• Any attempts to model climate change in the
ecological site description must be applicable to
management, both temporally and economically
• NRCS has a relatively new ecological site
database, which will likely be the platform for
displaying and interpreting the state & transition
model
• Ecosystem Dynamics Interpretive Tool
• edit.jornada.nmsu.edu

13.
Thank you!
• Questions and /or comments?
• Suggestions for future model / database development
regarding climate change on rangeland, contact:
• Brandon Bestelmeyer
• brandon.Bestelmeyer@ars.usda.gov
• Joel Brown
• joel.brown@usda.gov
• Curtis Talbot
• curtis.talbot@usda.gov
“The findings and conclusions in this presentation are those of the authors
and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or U.S.
Government determination or policy.”