STEP Summer Seminar 2017 - Denis Nabereznykh, TRL - Transport and Air Quality in the Next 15 Years

1. © 2017 TRL Ltd
STEP Summer Seminar
Transport and Air Quality in the next 15 Years
June 2017

2. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
World leader in creating
the future of transport
and mobility, using
evidence-based
solutions and
innovative thinking
Vision
Challenge and influence our chosen markets, driving
sustained reductions (ultimately to zero) in:
Mission
 Fatalities and serious injuries
 Harmful emissions
 Barriers to inclusive mobility
 Unforeseen delays
 Cost inefficiencies
Providing world-leading research,
technology and software solutions
for surface transport modes and the
related markets of automotive,
motorsport, insurance and energy
320
engineers, scientists,
psychologists, IT experts
and statisticians
1000 clients in
145 countries
About TRL

3. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
 Growth in population
 Increasingly urbanised population
 Ageing society / transport
accessibility
 Shared mobility (TaaS)
 Safety targets
 Policy & regulation
 Congestion on the road network
 Electrification of vehicle fleet
 Uptake of electric & ULEV vehicles
 User behaviour
 Infrastructure design for
connectivity and automation
 Growth of mobility as a service
 Connection to the smart city
Global Megatrends
Significantly shifting the transportation landscape
Societal
Challenges
Safety and
environment
Connectivity
and
automation

4. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
Fuel and Traction Challenge Areas
4
Energy
efficiency
CO2 emissions
Air pollution
Performance &
range
Refuelling
infrastructure
Fuel availability
and supply
ICEs
EVs
FCVs

5. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
CO2 Challenge
5
Image source: www.automotivecouncil.co.uk
New car: 120.1 gCO2/km (2016)
Approx 20% lower than average car in use
2015

6. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
 Euro 6 standard (September 2015)
Air Pollution Challenge
6
Source: DfT, Vehicle Emissions Testing Programme, April 2016

7. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
Energy Efficiency Challenge
 ICE can at best achieve efficiency of 50%
 Further improvements require electrification / low carbon fuels
7Source: ERTRAC, Future Light and Heavy Duty ICE Powertrain Technologies

8. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
Plug-in Vehicles / EVs
EV current state of the art
8
Use electricity from the grid (Approx.
75gCO2/km – EU mix)
Zero tailpipe emissions
Highly efficient powertrain (Around
70% to 80%)

9. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
Click to add text
Fuel Cell Vehicles
CO2 emission pathways from hydrogen production to fuel cell vehicle use…
Source: IET Intelligent Transport Systems: Evaluation of the CO2 emissions pathway from hydrogen production to fuel cell car utilisation
(F. Ognissanto et al, 2017)

10. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
Challenges with PiVs
Understanding use of new technology
10
Adequate
range
Adequate
charging
infrastructure
BEV or PHEV

11. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
Opportunities For Closer Integration With the Energy
Sector
11
Consumers, Vehicles and Energy
Integration (CVEI) project
 Optimise EVs in the energy system
 Consumer attitudes to EVs and
PHEVs
 EV and PHEV user charging
behavior
 EV and PHEV user acceptance of
managed charging
 Polices and market structures

12. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
Opportunities for Automation of Charging
Wireless Power Transfer
12
• Scalable power
transfer (3kW to
100s kW)
• Efficient (>85%)
• Practical and user
friendly (fully
automated)

13. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
Low Emission Heavy Duty Vehicles
Freight

14. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
Low Emission Heavy Duty Vehicles
Freight
 DfT Low Emission Freight
and Logistics Trial
 TRL undertaking
monitoring and evaluation
of all projects (4 years)
 Create an evidence base
for performance of
different technologies
 Inform future uptake,
investment opportunities,
roadmaps and policy
Technology
Type
Number of
Vehicles
Number of
projects
DfT grant
amount (£M)
Total spend
(£M)
Aerodynaic Truck
design 1 £0.39 £0.56
Batteries 15 1 £1.1 £2
Driver Behaviour 12 1 £0.41 £0.69
Electric 94 7 £7.01 £10.72
Gas 144 3 £5.35 £9.53
Gas and duel fuel 29 1 £1.05 £1.89
Hybrid 2 1 £1.26 £1.92
Hydrogen 9 2 £1.52 £1.97
Kinetic Energy
Recovery System 20 1 £1.5 £2.21
Lightweight
vehicles 6 1 £0.35 £0.54
Vehicle design 2 1 £0.17 £0.29
Grand Total 333 (517) 20 £20.11 £32.32

15. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
Low Emission Heavy Duty Vehicles
Buses
 DfT Low Emission Bus
Scheme
 TRL undertaking monitoring
and evaluation of all
projects (5 years)
 Create an evidence base for
performance of different
technologies
 Inform future uptake,
investment opportunities,
roadmaps and policy
Technology
Type
Number
of
Vehicles
Number
of
projects
DfT grant
amount
vehicles
DfT grant
amount
infrastructure
Biomethane 69 2 £3M £3.2M
Biomethane, Electric,
Hybrid 72 1 £4.7M £0.3M
Electric 55 5 £8M £2.5M
Hybrid 59 3 £1.9M -
Hybrid, Electric 29 1 £2.4M £0.7M
Hydrogen Fuel Cell 42 1 £2.8M £1M
Grand Total 326 13 £22.7M £7.7M

16. the future of transport.© 2017 TRL Ltd
Conclusion
 Need to move away from ICEs…
 Environmental, financial, societal benefits of
transitioning to ULEVs
 A number of viable options exist
 Need an evidence base to inform take up decisions and
policy
 Support is required to facilitate early adoption,
economic and industrial growth

17. © Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd
Thank you

18. © 2017 TRL Ltd
Questions?
Presented by Denis Naberezhnykh
Head of ULEV and Energy
dnaberezhnykh@trl.co.uk
+44 [0]1344 770 689 | +44 [0]7789 401 512
TRL | Crowthorne House | Nine Mile Ride | Wokingham
Berkshire | RG40 3GA | United Kingdom
© 2017 TRL Ltd