4. There was a demographic turning point in
2010
55
60
65
70
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
World
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Percent of total population
that is working age
Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, 2018
âą Higher working-age
population shares are
associated with higher
per capita output
growth.
âą Global demographic
trends turned from
tailwinds to growth into
headwinds around 2010.
5. ï Lagging in human
development outcomes
ï Job creation for rapidly
growing share of
working-age people,
mostly youth
ï Populations beginning to
age; potential slowdown
in growth of labor supply
ï Adapting to aging to
maintain living
standards
The world can be divided into four major
demographic groups
Most of the global population lives in early- and late-dividend countries and while 78 percent of global growth was
from late- and post-dividend countries, 90 percent of global poverty is in pre- and early-dividend countries
* World Bank Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016
7. Climate change and development
progress
Process of integrating climate resilience into development
Index of risk preparation across countriesGlobal disaster losses, 1980â2012
The number of disasters and losses has been rising. Development progress needs to
integrate resilience to avoid undoing hard fought development gains
9. The rate of technological advancement is
unprecedented
10. Violent conflict is increasing and becoming
more complex
Number of people killed by violent conflict Number of conflicts, by type
Source: Pathways to Peace, World Bank, 2018
11. The worldâs economic center of gravity,
1980â2016, in black, at three-year intervals
Multipolarity
1980
1989
1998
2007
2016
2049
Source: Danny Quah, 2011
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012
Evolution of the earthâs economic center of
gravity: 1 CE to 2025
Source: Danny Quah, 2011
15. 15
Change from
June 2018
2012-16 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2018 2019
World 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 -0.1 -0.1
Advanced economies 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.6 0.0 0.0
EMDEs 4.8 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 -0.3 -0.4
East Asia and Pacific 7.3 6.6 6.3 6.0 6.0 0.0 -0.1
Europe and Central Asia 3.2 4.0 3.1 2.5 2.7 -0.1 -0.6
Latin America and the Caribbean 2.2 0.8 0.7 1.8 2.4 -1.0 -0.5
Middle East and North Africa 3.5 1.2 1.8 1.9 2.7 -1.2 -1.4
South Asia 6.4 6.2 6.9 7.1 7.1 0.0 0.0
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.3 2.5 2.8 3.4 3.6 -0.3 -0.1
17. 17
Bloomberg; Haver Analytics; World Bank
âą Left Panel. Inflation is measured by year-on-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Both PCE price index and unemployment rate are seasonally adjusted. Dotted lines refer
to projections over longer run in the latest FOMC) meeting (in September 2018), based on the central tendency. Last observation is August 2018. Right Panel.
(Percent, year-on-year) (Percent of labor
force)
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
2015 2016 2017 2018
Inflation Unemployment rate (RHS)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
United States Euro Area Japan
FOMC median
22. 22
EMs: Value of International Bonds Maturing
Change in Credit Rating in EMs, 2012-18External Variable Rate Debt
23. Risks
Materialize
FX liquidity
measures
Decline in
growth
Decline in
capital flows
Macro-
prudential
measures
Capital
flow
measures
FX reserve
buffers
Monetary
policy
Fiscal
policy
Implement
structural
reforms
Allow exchange rate
depreciation
Use targeted
interventions Use conventional tools,
weighing policy trade-offs
Use fiscal
stabilization if
space available; if
not, build space
Build-up capital
buffers
Use swap and FX
liquidity measures
Ease capital flow regulation
Consider temporary restrictions
on outflows
23
Financial stability
measures
Macroeconomic policy
measures
25. Source: New Growth Models, World Economic Forum, 2014
Investing in Inclusive Growth:
Dashboard for inclusive, sustainable, and multidimensional growth
25
26. Adapted from: WDR 2019 Changing Nature of Work, World Bank, 2018
Invest in resilience
(incl. social
protection)
Invest in infrastructureInvest in human
capital
Enablers
Achieving the SDGs
Data Finance STI
Harnessing the impact of disruptive changes
requires a comprehensive policy framework
Effects of
disruptive
changes
e.g. tech
30. Big picture of developing countries' total
resource receipts
Tax revenues
0
5
10
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
FDI Net Inflows (% of GDP)
Low & middle income
World
Middle East & North Africa
Fintech
31. Develop Robust Financial and Data
Infrastructure to Sustain Fintech Benefits
Ensure Stability of Domestic
Monetary and Financial Systems
31
Maximizing Fintechâs Potential
Opportunities, Challenges, Risks
Enable New
Technologies to
Enhance Financial
Service Provision
Adapt Regulatory Framework and Supervisory
Practices for Orderly Development and Stability
of the Financial System
Modernize Legal Frameworks
to Provide an Enabling Legal
Landscape Enhance Collective Surveillance of
the International Monetary and
Financial System
Monitor Developments Closely to Deepen
Understanding of Evolving Financial Systems
Reinforce Competition and Commitment
to Open, Free and Contestable Markets
Safeguard the
Integrity of
Financial Systems
Encourage
International
Cooperation and
Information Sharing
Foster Fintech to Promote Financial
Inclusion and Develop Financial Markets
Embrace the
Promise of
Fintech
Source: The Bali Fintech Agenda, World Bank, 2018
32.
33.
34.
35. worldbankgroup.org/sdgs
Follow us on twitter @WBG2030
Mahmoud-Mohieldin on
@wbg2030
worldbank.org/sdgs
Mahmoud Mohieldin
Senior Vice President
World Bank Group
Hinweis der Redaktion
1) Facts
2) Controversy/debates
3) What to be done (policies/solutions)
âTrickle-down theory - the less than elegant metaphor that if one feeds the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows.â -John Kenneth Galbraith
âTrickle-down theory - the less than elegant metaphor that if one feeds the horse enough oats, some will pass through to the road for the sparrows.â -John Kenneth Galbraith
Cross-cutting and integrated â so the point is that progress on one affects progress on others. And that they need to be approached in a holistic manner.
How can SDGs, as an open competition/race between nations, help address challenges and take advantage of opportunities, in a specific timeline, 12 yrs
Advances in information and communication technologies (ICTs) are at the heart of this technological change. They have vastly increased digital interconnectedness, digital data storage and analytics capabilities at declining cost. Artificial intelligence (AI) in particular, which allows machines and computers to learn to solve problems on their own, could have transformative effects across many sectors of the economy, making it essential that innovations are in the public interest and guided by the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Addis Agenda.
Due to their potential to disrupt industries and markets, these technologies are sometimes described as being part of a fourth industrial revolution (following
mechanization, mass production and the digital revolution) and have the potential to accelerate SDG implementation through their rapidly declining costs and improving performance.
These technologies and their applications offer new opportunities for economic prosperity, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability, with great potential to contribute to achieving the SDGs. This can be seen in the emergence of innovation-driven entrepreneurs in developing countries that base their business model on specific aspects of the SDGs. 3 For example, agricultural biotechnology can improve productivity and natural-resource use efficiency, with significant benefits to small farmers. Biological nanotechnology applications are already starting to have an impact on the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of disease. Biotechnology and synthetic biology have enormous potential for addressing the environment, climate crisis and loss of biodiversity through more advanced biofuels and âcleanerâ agricultureâthat is, agricultural processeswith less input of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, and/or a reduction of carbon dioxide through artificial leaf technology. Nuclear and isotopic techniques to track and quantify carbon, water and nutrient movement and dynamics are also used to increase agricultural productivity, resilience, and the sectorâs greenhouse gas emissions. In Sudan, the application of climate-smart agriculture has allowed hundreds of women, many of whom are refugees or internally displaced persons, to start small-scale farms and home gardens in extremely arid areas. Table 1 presents a wide range of promising emerging technologies across the 17 SDGs, as identified by a group of 158 scientists for the 2016 Global Sustainable Development Report. 4 The pace of technological change has accelerated significantly. In some areas, such as digital technologies, which are characterized by very low marginal costs and wide distribution through platforms and networks, performance, cost and applicability across sectors is improving at exponential rates. Technologies are also diffused much more rapidly across borders than in the past. For example, the adoption of the steam engine by developing regions took 120 years. Current technologies are clearly spreading within much shorter periods of time.
To ensure that technology dividends are shared broadly, countries should put in place policies to support lifelong learning and skills acquisition for all. At the same time, the significant increase in self-employment and new forms of employment call for adapted and strengthened employment and social protection policies.
To address continued gender disparities and enhance inclusion of marginalized groups, such policies should emphasize the equitable participation of women and all social groups in decent jobs.
In development finance, new technologies can help overcome weak contract enforcement, improve administrative procedures, increase access to financial services for those currently underserved and address data gaps. But opportunities will only be available to those who are connected.
Wide access of individuals and businesses to new technologies, platforms and payment systems is critical, and Governments need to adjust their regulatory frameworks in order to close access gaps while managing risks. Policymakers also need to be proactive in addressing emerging risks to privacy, financial stability, and financial integrity.