Implementing the SDGs in a Changing World
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Washington DC, USA February 2018
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Implementing the SDGs in a Changing World
- 1. @wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs February 16, 2018 Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group
- 2. Global Megatrends and Challenges Fragility and violence Shifts in the global economy Climate and resources Commodity cycles Urbanization Source:WorldBank ForwardLook, September2017 Demographic transitions Renewed political debate about globalization Technological disruptions
- 3. Growth: a broad based recovery 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f Percent World Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDE) Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects, 2018
- 4. But investment growth has been weak 0 4 8 12 16 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 World AEs EMDEs 2003-07 average 1998-2017 average Percent Investment growth Investment growth in EMDEs has halved since 2010. Since capital accumulation makes a major contribution to potential output growth both directly, and indirectly via TFP, the slowdown has negative implications for future growth
- 5. The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980–2016, in black, at three-year intervals Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity 1980 1989 1998 2007 2016 2049 Source: Danny Quah, 2011 Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012 Evolution of the earth’s economic center of gravity: 1 CE to 2025
- 6. Is globalization retrenching? Global Gross Financial Flows, 1990-2016 (percent of world GDP) Trade and FDI depth through 2016 Source: Ghemawat, 2017 Source: Ghemawat, 2017 Source: Braga, 2017
- 7. The global risks landscape in 2018
- 8. The SDGs present a major opportunity for transformation Global development agendas serve as a guide for countries to determine their national development path MDGs (2000-2015) SDGs (2016-2030) Goals/Targets/Indicators 8/21/60 17/169/~230 Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental Scope Developing Countries Universal
- 10. Data gaps are significant 0 5 10 15 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 “Assessability” of SDG targets in Canada Quantified SDG target Canadian national target Proxy target Not able to assess
- 11. The SDGs are interlinked and data is critical to understand those relationships Japan’s goals interlinked to SDG 1
- 12. Data is crucial to understanding how trends are shifting
- 14. “Data is the new oil”
- 15. Until there is a business model for data, it will not be used efficiently
- 16. The shape of successful national data systems in the future Source: Data for Development: An Evaluation of World Bank Support for Data and Statistical Capacity, Independent Evaluation Group, World Bank, 2018 Institutions Based on Organizations that Have Data that Are Users Who Are Data Uses • Open data laws • Rights to privacy • Accountabilit y to users • Broad outreach to society • Harmonized data conventions • Budgetary autonomy • Trained staff • Adequate installations • Connected databases • Early warning systems • International partnerships • Up to date • Disaggregated • Easy to manipulate and visualize • Accessible in remote areas • Georeferenced • Contestable • From integrated data sets • Connected • Data literate • Diverse (e.g., • academics, CSOs, media, local and central governments) • Planning • Policy making • Monitoring • Targeting • Research • Advocacy • Lobbying • Citizen empowerment
- 17. The key components of financing sustainable development Source: World Bank Group, 2015
- 18. Financing sustainable development Source: World Bank, 2018 When a project is presented, apply the “Cascade”. You should ask: “Is there a sustainable private sector solution that limits public debt and contingent liabilities?” If the answer is... Promote such private sector solutions • TheWorld Bank could play an important role in supporting the government to advance appropriate private sector solutions. i.e. though analytical support, technical assistance for relevant reforms and capacity building, project identification and preparation support, project structuring, and support to the government in negotiations with the private sector Ask whether its because of: • Policy or regulatory gaps or weaknesses? If so, provideWBG support for policy and regulatory reforms. • Risks? If so, assess the risks and see whether WBG instruments can address them. YES NO
- 19. How can the private sector get involved? $24.4 trillion in low-yield government securities More than $10 trillion invested in negative interest rate bonds $8 trillion sitting in cash How much is out there?
- 20. Several business themes provide major opportunities in a world economy heading for the SDGs
- 21. Exponential changes in IT are disrupting industries & creating new opportunities Why Blockchain ? Drones Artificial Intelligenc e Blockchain & Distributed Ledger Technologies Big Data & Analyti cs Internet of Things Platform Revolutio n Applications : • Finance (e.g. remittances; P2P Payments) • Record Keeping • Identity Management • Smart Contracts • Sharing Economy (P2P market) • Crowdfunding • Governance • Supply Chain Auditing • Protection of Intellectual Property Cloud Computing Robotic s Quantum Computing Transparent Decentralized Immutable Cost Effective Robust 21
- 22. Digital solutions are transforming the delivery of products and services Problems confronted by traditional methods Digital solutions Service delivery Health Doctor/hospital-centric model is difficult/slow to scale Digital solutions are transforming access/affordability and, together with AI, showing growing potential for diagnosis & preventative care SMEs Small/informal enterprises lack access to markets/credit Accelerating access to markets/credit (Taobao serves over 4.5 million SMEs in China) Agribusiness Isolated farmers work in a more inefficient manner, with variability in yields Helps farmers improve yield/connect with supply chains (mKrishi increased farmer profitability by 45% in India) Power Rural populations are often left without electricity due to limited grid coverage Off-grid solutions linked to e-payments give access to remote populations (50M users so far, out of 1.2B lacking access) Government Tax Informality and lack of enforcement lead to significant tax avoidance and leakage Digital payments allow govts to increase tax revenue Government payments Corruption and overpayment (ie. Ghost workers, duplicate social transfer recipients) Digital ID and payments ensures direct transfer of payments to confirmed recipients
- 23. The growing mobile industry has a direct impact on the SDGs 34
- 24. However, digitization is still nascent in most emerging markets 4 billion people are currently not participating in the digital economy
- 25. And digital disruption will impact countries differently and could exacerbate global inequality
- 26. Fast rising aspirations and technology is changing the nature of work. Countries will not be able to compete unless they invest much more, and more effectively, in people.
- 27. The Human Capital Project "This year, for the first time, we are including human capital in our measurement of the wealth of nations. Human capital is about 65% of the wealth in high-income countries and only 40% in low income countries.We’re helping low income countries overcome this – and there is a sense of urgency – not only because we’re facing several current human capital crises, but also because accelerations in technology will require countries to urgently invest in their people if they hope to compete in the economy of the future. “ Jim Kim President,World BankGroup
- 28. lends to governments of middle-income and creditworthy low-income countries provides interest-free loans, or credits, and grants to governments of the poorest countries provides loans, equity, and advisory services to stimulate private sector investments in developing countries provides political risk insurance and credit enhancement to investors and lenders to facilitate FDI in emerging economies provides international facilities for conciliation and arbitration of investment disputes 1944 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) 1960 International Development Association (IDA) 1956 International Finance Corporation (IFC) 1988 Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) 1966 International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) The World Bank Group
- 29. worldbankgroup.org/sdgs Follow us on twitter @WBG2030 Mahmoud-Mohieldin on @wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs February 2018 Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Sources of investment weakness. Whereas investment weakness in advanced economies mainly reflected sluggish demand and output growth, in EMDEs a broader range of factors has been at play. In commodity importers, slowing FDI inflows and spillovers from soft activity in major advanced economies accounted for much of the slowdown in investment growth after 2011. In commodity exporters, a sharp deterioration in their terms of trade (particularly for energy exporters), slowing growth in China, and mounting private debt burdens accounted for much of the slowdown in investment growth. In several EMDEs, political and policy uncertainty was a key factor in investment contractions or slowdowns (Kose et al. 2017). Investment weakness may also reflect the declining price of capital goods or a growing role of poorly-measured intangible capital, such as design, research and developments, marketing and training (Corrado and Hulten 2010; Ollivaud, Guillemette, and Turner 2016). Evolution of investment growth. Global investment growth halved between 2010 and 2016, with the investment weakness shifting from advanced economies to EMDEs over this period. Investment growth in advanced economies declined during the Euro Area crisis and, after a brief rebound, again after the oil price decline that disrupted energy sector investment in the United States. In EMDEs, investment growth slowed sharply following the global financial crisis, from double-digit rates in the immediate wake of the crisis to a post-crisis low of 3 percent in 2016. Despite signs of bottoming out in 2017, investment growth has been well below its precrisis average Consequences of investment weakness. Cyclical factors, although transitory in themselves, can have long-lasting effects on potential output growth. More than half of EMDEs in the sample suffered at least one year of investment contraction during 2013-17. In some, investment contractions were triggered by the prolonged slump of commodity prices from their peak in early 2011. In others, it was accompanied by heightened domestic political or geopolitical tensions. Such episodes typically foreshadow weaker potential growth in the three years surrounding the trough of the investment contraction (Box 3.3). Potential total factor productivity growth slowed, post-crisis, below its longer-term average and pre-crisis levels. The slowdown started well before the global financial crisis in advanced economies (AEs) and spread to EMDEs after the crisis. Weaker productivity growth has been attributed to slower investment growth, partly because of heightened uncertainty and crisis legacies, population aging, increased regulation, and maturing global value chains and information and communications technology.
- Trade: exports of goods and services (% of GDP) Capital: FDI flows (% of GFCF); Stock market investment (% international) Information: telephone calls (% international, incl. Skype) People: tourists (% international); university students (% international); migrants (% of population)
- Key constraints that the WBG can help with (or key constraints we’ve prioritized): Data gaps (use Canada as an example –to showcase how even a developed country has major data constraints to overcome) Financing/engaging the private sector Add budget analysis here
- Less than half the SDG targets are considered “assessable” in Canada The analysis produces a mix of 37 directly quantified targets and 41 proxy targets that could be assessable across all advanced economies = 78/169 = 46% First, we identify which SDG targets to assess. We do this by identifying targets that are outcome-focused, conceptually relevant to Canada, and adequately quantified and measureable to be “assessable” through either the formal SDG framework or a reasonable proxy measure. Second, we identify data sources for the assessable targets, starting with the U.N. SDG statistical database as the default and supplementing with other sources where needed. Third, we classify each indicator’s trajectory relative to the SDG objective. At the time of analysis, the U.N. database contained information for 57 of the 78 assessable targets. Of those, only 20 targets had enough observations to conduct a recent status assessment for Canada 20/169 = 11%
- Insightful and unexploited data exists, but is not accessible. It seems obvious but we need to make data a bigger priority. We make a lot of assumptions about what our problems are or what interventions work to address them. The capacity to process big data, decentralize the collection of data to the most remote parts of the world, use geospatial data will significantly improve our ability to make informed decisions. But more fundamentally, countries also need to put in place robust identification and statistical systems and conduct periodic household budget surveys in order to have an understanding of the facts at hand. With rapid technological advancement and an increasing role for the private sector, governments are not the only actors responsible for development data. Role of the WBG: Three areas of work: Strengthening partnerships Producing data and cross-country indicators Fostering client country data production, dissemination, and use Some specific examples of WBG support to countries include: Technical assistance on household survey programs Civil registration and Vital Statistics systems Earth observation data and geospatial mapping Identification for Development (ID4D) initiative World Development Indicators and SDG Atlas
- The World Bank Group’s Identification for Development (ID4D) initiative plays an essential role in helping countries move forward to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and leave no one behind. "Identification provides a foundation for other rights and gives a voice to the voiceless." - Makhtar Diop, World Bank Vice President for Africa Without official identification, a person can struggle to access: Financial services, such as opening a bank account or obtaining capital and credit Social benefits, including food vouchers, pensions, or cash transfers Healthcare, such as health insurance, vaccinations, and maternal care Education, such as enrolling children in school or applying for scholarships Political and legal rights, such as voting, filing petitions in courts, owning property, or receiving an inheritance Gender equality, including prevention of early and child marriage Migration, including seeking asylum and crossing borders legally and safely Collectively, the barriers individuals face in turn create larger barriers for the countries they live in. Without strong identification systems, countries can struggle to: Deliver vital services to people Govern effectively Eliminate duplicative or inefficient programs Make efficient use of limited resources Produce statistics accurately ID4D helps countries analyze problems, design solutions, and implement new systems to increase the number of people with official identification and the development impact of the overall identification system. When more people have formal identification and identification systems function well, individuals access necessary services, governments function better, use resources more efficiently, and improve statistics to better inform their future policies.
- The “open data movement” is already modifying the approach to data and initiatives, such as the Open Government Partnership creating incentives for civil society, private sector entities and governments to nurture the data revolution. Together with donors, such actors are currently building innovative partnerships to foster the use of private sector data. Examples include the World Bank working with the European Space Agency, which decided to open up access to its satellite imagery to help with the evaluation of a project at the bank. And in France, AFD is currently developing a partnership with Orange, MIT media Lab and Data-Pop Alliance to foster the use of private sector data for policy making. Uber, the world’s largest taxi company Owns no vehicles Facebook, the world’s most popular media owner Creates no content Ali Baba, the world’s most valuable retailer Has no inventory Air bnb, the world’s largest accommodation provider Owns no property
- Highlight the risks: Privacy and misaligned incentives between the private sector and the public good EU data privacy: The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is a regulation by which the European Parliament, the Council of the European Union and the European Commission intend to strengthen and unify data protection for all individuals within the European Union (EU). It also addresses the export of personal data outside the EU. The GDPR aims primarily to give control back to citizens and residents over their personal data and to simplify the regulatory environment for international business by unifying the regulation within the EU.[1] When the GDPR takes effect, it will replace the data protection directive (officially Directive 95/46/EC)[2] of 1995. The regulation was adopted on 27 April 2016. It becomes enforceable from 25 May 2018 after a two-year transition period and, unlike a directive, it does not require national governments to pass any enabling legislation, and is thus directly binding and applicable.[3] WEF video: until there’s a business model for data, we can’t use it efficiently
- Based on the presentations made during the 2017 HLPF
- Based on the presentations made during the 2017 HLPF
- Infrastructure TP from IF and PPPs TPs We estimated last year that there’s 23 trillion dollars of potential investments in the Paris commitments of just 21 emerging economies – including green buildings, sustainable transport, renewable energy, and energy efficiency. We need investments in the trillions, not billions. Current infrastructure investment tops out at around 3.5 trillion dollars annually, but the need is more like 6 trillion dollars a year. And all of this needs to be climate-smart, low-carbon, resilient infrastructure. And this is where the private sector can help mobilize the financing needed: there’s more than 10 trillion dollars invested in negative interest rate bonds, 24.4 trillion dollars in low-yield government securities, and 8 trillion dollars sitting in cash, waiting for better investment opportunities. Even if a portion of that capital could be invested in climate-smart technologies and infrastructure, it could have a significant impact on emissions and increased resilience. That kind of investment would reduce the impact of more frequent and intense weather events in the Caribbean SIDS like we’ve seen with Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and now Maria; it could also reduce impacts of drought in LDCs in the Sahel, and devastating flooding from Sierra Leone to India and Bangladesh. If we are going to meet and exceed the goals of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda, we need all sources of finance – commercial, development, concessional, and philanthropic – and we need them all working together. This is why the World Bank Group and the UN have been developing a new platform for climate action called Invest4Climate that brings together policy makers, owners of capital, private sector investors, IFIs, commercial lenders and philanthropy funds. Invest4Climate will facilitate collective work by these potential partners to develop working together on transformational investments such as the development of large-scale battery storage for electric vehicles, the acceleration of high efficiency low carbon air conditioning, and the scaling up of renewable energy in more places around the world. The immediate next step is to identify a set of concrete, transformative investment opportunities in key developing countries to show how this might work – including at the city level. At the is leadership group’s last meeting of this leadership group in April, the countries in the room made it clear that they’re ready to make the low-carbon transition, but they need capital at scale to finance it. They welcome support from partners like you to help shape the environment to crowd in this capital.
- The World Development Report 2018 (WDR 2018)—LEARNING to Realize Education’s Promise—is the first ever devoted entirely to education. And the timing is excellent: education has long been critical to human welfare, but it is even more so in a time of rapid economic and social change. The best way to equip children and youth for the future is to place their learning at the center. The 2018 WDR explores four main themes: 1) education’s promise; 2) the need to shine a light on learning; 3) how to make schools work for learners; and 4) how to make systems work for learning.
- The World Bank Group offers multiple channels and instruments to encourage the private sector to seek opportunities and engage in developing countries. These include: Creating markets and matching opportunities Building new markets for non-financial firms Promoting investment opportunities for financial institutions Supporting small- and medium-sized enterprises/promoting innovation and high-growth entrepreneurship: SME Lines of Credit Partial Credit Guarantee Schemes Early-Stage Innovation Finance IDA Private Sector Window Advisory services on trade and investment policies, supply chains, and improved financial infrastructure, A global network of business-incubation centers, Investing with the IFC Asset Management Company: Engaging with business leaders and philanthropies: Building relationships to advance common goals
- How to meet development objectives, in short Avoid bad ideas Implement the list of policies adopted by countries with sustained high growth Adopt one or more of the global development paths: SDGs OECD Accession World Bank twin goals Data, finance, and implementation are the key Data: strengthen capacity; support data revolution Finance: maximize impact of each type of finance: public; private; domestic; international. Ensure private sector participation. Establish a SWF Expand financial inclusion, in particular savings Implementation: Invest in people Invest in inclusive growth Invest in resilience Development happens at the local level: ensure that